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Objective: To develop a preoperative risk model, using endometrial biopsy results and clinical and ultrasound variables, to predict the individual risk of lymph-node metastases in women with endometrial cancer. Methods: A mixed-effects logistic regression model for prediction of lymph-node metastases was developed in 1501 prospectively included women with endometrial cancer undergoing transvaginal ultrasound examination before surgery, from 16 European centers. Missing data, including missing lymph-node status, were imputed. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were evaluated using leave-center-out cross validation. The predictive performance of the model was compared with that of risk classification from endometrial biopsy alone (high-risk defined as endometrioid cancer Grade 3/non-endometrioid cancer) or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound (high-risk defined as endometrioid cancer Grade 3/non-endometrioid cancer/deep myometrial invasion/cervical stromal invasion/extrauterine spread). Results: Lymphadenectomy was performed in 691 women, of whom 127 had lymph-node metastases. The model for prediction of lymph-node metastases included the predictors age, duration of abnormal bleeding, endometrial biopsy result, tumor extension and tumor size according to ultrasound and undefined tumor with an unmeasurable endometrium. The model's area under the curve was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68–0.78), the calibration slope was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.79–1.34) and the calibration intercept was 0.06 (95% CI, –0.15 to 0.27). Using a risk threshold for lymph-node metastases of 5% compared with 20%, the model had, respectively, a sensitivity of 98% vs 48% and specificity of 11% vs 80%. The model had higher sensitivity and specificity than did classification as high-risk, according to endometrial biopsy alone (50% vs 35% and 80% vs 77%, respectively) or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound (80% vs 75% and 53% vs 52%, respectively). The model's clinical utility was

Objectives To describe sonographic features of the microcystic elongated and fragmented (MELF) pattern of myometrial invasion (MI) using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) criteria; to assess the effect of the MELF pattern on preoperative ultrasound evaluation of MI; and to determine the relationship of the MELF pattern to more advanced stage (≥ IB) and lymph node metastases in women with endometrioid endometrial cancer. Methods/materials We included 850 women with endometrioid endometrial cancer from the prospective IETA study. Ultrasound experts performed all ultrasound examinations, according to the IETA protocol. Reference pathologists assessed the presence or absence of the MELF pattern. Sonographic features and accuracy of ultrasound assessment of MI were compared in cases with the presence and the absence of the MELF pattern. The MELF pattern was correlated to more advanced stage (≥IB) and lymph node metastases. Results The MELF pattern was present in 197 (23.2%) women. On preoperative ultrasound imaging the endometrium was thicker (p = 0.031), more richly vascularized (p = 0.003) with the multiple multifocal vessel pattern (p < 0.001) and the assessment of adenomyosis was more often uncertain (p < 0.001). The presence or the absence of the MELF pattern did not affect the accuracy of the assessment of MI. The MELF pattern was associated with MI ≥ 50% (p < 0.001), cervical stromal invasion (p = 0.037), more advanced stage (≥ IB) (p < 0.001) and lymph node metastases (p = 0.011). Conclusions Tumors with the MELF pattern were slightly larger, more richly vascularized with multiple multifocal vessels and assessment of adenomyosis was more uncertain on ultrasound imaging. The MELF pattern did not increase the risk of underestimating MI in preoperative ultrasound staging. Tumors with the MELF pattern were more than twice as likely to have more advanced stage (≥ IB) and lymph node metastases.