1. On the Stationarity of the Global Spatial Dependency of Heat Risk on Drought.
- Author
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Zampieri, M., Ashok, K., Toreti, A., Bavera, D., and Hoteit, I.
- Subjects
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CLIMATE change adaptation , *ATMOSPHERIC temperature , *WEATHER forecasting , *SOIL temperature , *CLIMATE change , *HEAT waves (Meteorology) - Abstract
Land surface processes such as the soil moisture—air temperature coupling influence compound climate anomalies like heatwaves and droughts, yet the spatial and temporal variability of the coupling strength is still understudied. We assess global land exposure to concurrent heat waves and drought since the 1980s. We found that drought significantly shapes the spatial distribution of the risk of heat waves. We show that the portion of global land experiencing drought‐conditioned heat anomalies more than tripled in less than 3 decades. However, using such traditional heat waves indicators, the level of spatial coupling between heat waves and drought seems to decline. Conversely, time‐dependent approaches accounting for the baseline climate change offer a more stable perspective. We conclude that tailoring hazard definitions to specific processes and impacts is crucial. Early warning systems can play a prominent role in mitigating the impacts of global warming to society. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is increasing the risk of simultaneous heatwaves and droughts, which significantly impact ecosystems and society. These events are influenced by soil moisture and air temperature interactions, but the variability of this relationship is not well understood. Using data from observations and forecasts since the 1980s, we analyzed global exposure to these compound events. We found that drought significantly influences where heatwaves occur, with the area experiencing both drought and heatwaves more than tripling in less than 30 years. Traditional methods for detecting temperature anomalies may give misleading results, so we recommend using time‐dependent approaches that account for climate change. These approaches provide a clearer understanding of soil moisture‐air temperature interactions and are better for studying the impacts on adaptable systems. Traditional methods are still useful for assessing impacts on less adaptable ecosystems and some societal sectors. We also highlight the importance of weather forecasts in providing early warnings to help society adapt to global warming. Key Points: Drought significantly influences heatwave locations. The affected global land area tripled in under 30 yearsTime‐dependent approaches better reflect soil moisture‐air temperature interactions amid climate changeWeather forecasts are crucial for early warnings, aiding societal adaptation to global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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