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The efficacy of coronal mass ejection (CME) observations as a key input to space weather forecasting is explored by comparing on and off Sun-Earth line observations from the ESA/NASA SOHO and NASA STEREO spacecraft. A comparison is made of CME catalogues based on L1 coronagraph imagery and off Sun-Earth line coronagraph and heliospheric imager (HI) observations, for the year 2011. Analysis reveals inconsistencies in the identification of a number of potentially Earth-directed CMEs. The catalogues reflect our ability to identify and characterise CMEs, so any discrepancies can impact our prediction of Earth-directed CMEs. We show that 15 CMEs, which were observed by STEREO, that had estimated directions compatible with Earth-directed events, had no identified halo/partial halo counterpart listed in the L1 coronagraph CME catalogue. In-situ data confirms that for 9 of these there was a consistent L1 Interplanetary CME (ICME). The number of such "discrepant" events is significant compared to the number of ICMEs recorded at L1 in 2011, stressing the need to address space weather monitoring capabilities, particularly with the inclusion of off Sun-Earth line observation. While the study provides evidence that some halo CMEs are simply not visible in near-Earth coronagraph imagery, there is evidence that some halo CMEs viewed from L1 are compromised by preceding CME remnants or the presence of multiple-CMEs. This underlines (1) the value of multiple vantage point CME observation, and (2) the benefit of off Sun-Earth line platform heliospheric imaging, and coronagraph imaging, for the efficient identification and tracking of Earth-directed events., Comment: 36 pages, 6 figures, in press at AGU Space Weather, 2023

Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long-standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Images (ELEvoHI) to predict the arrival time and speed of 10 CME events that were observed by HI on the STEREO-A spacecraft between 2010 and 2020. Additionally, we introduce a Python tool for downloading and preparing STEREO-HI data, as well as tracking CMEs. In contrast to most previous studies, we use not only science data, which has a relatively high spatial and temporal resolution, but also low-quality beacon data, which is - in contrast to science data - provided in real-time by the STEREO-A spacecraft. We do not use data from the STEREO-B spacecraft. We get a mean absolute error of 8.81 $\pm$ 3.18 h / 59 $\pm$ 31 kms$^{-1}$ for arrival time/speed predictions using science data and 11.36 $\pm$ 8.69 h / 106 $\pm$ 61 kms$^{-1}$ for beacon data. We find that using science data generally leads to more accurate predictions, but using beacon data with the ELEvoHI model is certainly a viable choice in the absence of higher resolution real-time data. We propose that these differences could be minimized if not eliminated altogether if higher quality real-time data was available, either by enhancing the quality of the already available data or coming from a new mission carrying a HI instrument on-board., Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, submitted to AGU Space Weather 2021 August 9, published in Space Weather 2021 December 3

A mission to view the solar poles from high helio-latitudes (above 60$^\circ$) will build on the experience of Solar Orbiter as well as a long heritage of successful solar missions and instrumentation (e.g. SOHO \cite{SOHO}, STEREO \cite{stereo}, Hinode \cite{Hinode}, SDO \cite{SDO}), but will focus for the first time on the solar poles, enabling scientific investigations that cannot be done by any other mission. One of the major mysteries of the Sun is the solar cycle. The activity cycle of the Sun drives the structure and behaviour of the heliosphere and is, of course, the driver of space weather. In addition, solar activity and variability provides fluctuating input into the Earth climate models, and these same physical processes are applicable to stellar systems hosting exoplanets. One of the main obstructions to understanding the solar cycle, and hence all solar activity, is our current lack of understanding of the polar regions. In this White Paper, submitted to the European Space Agency in response to the Voyage 2050 call, we describe a mission concept that aims to address this fundamental issue. In parallel, we recognise that viewing the Sun from above the polar regions enables further scientific advantages, beyond those related to the solar cycle, such as unique and powerful studies of coronal mass ejection processes, from a global perspective, and studies of coronal structure and activity in polar regions. Not only will these provide important scientific advances for fundamental stellar physics research, they will feed into our understanding of impacts on the Earth and other planets' space environment., Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures, White paper for ESA Voyage 2050

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse, and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed, i.e. it is drag-based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different set-ups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between $6.2\pm7.9$ h and $9.9\pm13$ h depending on the model set-up used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next $\sim7$ years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space., Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; This article also appears in: Heliophysics and Space Weather Studies from the Sun-Earth Lagrange Points

A group-theoretical framework to describe vacancy ordering and magnetism in the Fe$_{1-x}$S system is developed. This framework is used to determine the sequence of crystal structures consistent with the observed magnetic structures of troilite (FeS), and to determine the crystallographic nature of the low-temperature Besnus transition in Fe$_{0.875}$S. We conclude that the Besnus transition is a magnetically driven transition characterised by the rotation of the moments out of the ac-plane, accompanied by small atomic displacements that lower the symmetry to triclinic at low temperatures. Based on our phase diagram, we predict related magnetically driven phase transitions at low temperatures in all the commensurate superstructures of pyrrhotite. The exact nature of the transition is determined by the symmetry of the vacancy ordered state Based on this we predict spin-flop transitions in 3C and 5C pyrrhotite and a transition akin to the Besnus transition in 6C pyrrhotite. Furthermore, we clarify that 3C and 4C pyrrhotite carry a ferrimagnetic moment whereas 5C and 6C are antiferromagnetic., Comment: 65 pages including Supplementary Material

Predicting the magnetic field within an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) well before its arrival at Earth is one of the most important issues in space weather research. In this article, we compare the intrinsic flux rope type, i.e. the CME orientation and handedness during eruption, with the in situ flux rope type for 20 CME events that have been uniquely linked from Sun to Earth through heliospheric imaging. Our study shows that the intrinsic flux rope type can be estimated for CMEs originating from different source regions using a combination of indirect proxies. We find that only 20% of the events studied match strictly between the intrinsic and in situ flux rope types. The percentage rises to 55% when intermediate cases (where the orientation at the Sun and/or in situ is close to 45{\deg}) are considered as a match. We also determine the change in the flux rope tilt angle between the Sun and Earth. For the majority of the cases, the rotation is several tens of degrees, whilst 35% of the events change by more than 90{\deg}. While occasionally the intrinsic flux rope type is a good proxy for the magnetic structure impacting Earth, our study highlights the importance of capturing the CME evolution for space weather forecasting purposes. Moreover, we emphasize that determination of the intrinsic flux rope type is a crucial input for CME forecasting models., Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Space Weather

Relativistic jets reside in high-energy astrophysical systems of all scales. Their interaction with the surrounding media is critical as it determines the jet evolution, observable signature, and feedback on the environment. During its motion the interaction of the jet with the ambient media inflates a highly pressurized cocoon, which under certain conditions collimates the jet and strongly affects its propagation. Recently, Bromberg et al. (2011) derived a general simplified (semi)analytic solution for the evolution of the jet and the cocoon in case of an unmagnetized jet that propagates in a medium with a range of density profiles. In this work we use a large suite of 2D and 3D relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in order to test the validity and accuracy of this model. We discuss the similarities and differences between the analytic model and numerical simulations and also, to some extent, between 2D and 3D simulations. Our main finding is that although the analytic model is highly simplified, it properly predicts the evolution of the main ingredients of the jet-cocoon system, including its temporal evolution and the transition between various regimes (e.g., collimated to uncollimated). The analytic solution predicts a jet head velocity that is faster by a factor of about 3 compared to the simulations, as long as the head velocity is Newtonian. We use the results of the simulations to calibrate the analytic model which significantly increases its accuracy. We provide an applet that calculates semi-analytically the propagation of a jet in an arbitrary density profile defined by the user at http://www.astro.tau.ac.il/~ore/propagation.html.