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The term ‘tornado’ has been used in recent years to describe several solar phenomena, from large-scale eruptive prominences to small-scale photospheric vortices. It has also been applied to the generally stable quiescent prominences, sparking a renewed interest in what historically was called ‘prominence tornadoes’. This paper carries out an in-depth review of the physical nature of ‘prominence tornadoes’, where their name subconsciously makes us think of violent rotational dynamics. However, after careful consideration and analysis of the published observational data and theoretical models, we conclude that ‘prominence tornadoes’ do not differ in any substantial way from other stable solar prominences. There is simply no unequivocal observational evidence of sustained and coherent rotational movements in quiescent prominences that would justify a distinct category of prominences sharing the name with the well-known atmospheric phenomenon. The visual impression of the column-like silhouettes, the perceived helical motions, or the suggestive Doppler-shift patterns all have a simpler, more likely explanation. They are a consequence of projection effects combined with the presence of oscillations and/or counter-streaming flows. ‘Prominence tornadoes’ are thus just manifestations of the complex nature of solar prominences when observed in specific projections. These coincidental viewing angles, together with the presence of fine-structure dynamics and simple yet profoundly distorting projection effects, may sometimes play havoc with our intuitive understanding of perceived shapes and motions, leading to the incorrect analogy with atmospheric tornadoes.

Funding: D.H.M. would like to thank the STFC for support via consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and, the Leverhulme trust, and the ERC under the Synergy Grant: The Whole Sun (grant agreement no. 810218) for financial support. L.A.U. was supported by the NASA Living With a Star program (NNH16ZDA010N-LWS) and by the National Science Foundation Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program (Award #1624438). The solar corona exhibits a wide range of phenomena, from highly non-potential objects such as solar filaments to near-potential structures such as the open magnetic flux. For any global model to be useful in space weather applications, the model must on a single day reproduce all of these phenomena in the same simulation, using the same set of coronal physics and parameters. The purpose of the present paper is to evaluate whether the evolving magnetofrictional model can achieve this goal. Twenty-eight separate simulations are analyzed, where each tries to reproduce both highly non-potential and near-potential phenomena observed in the solar corona on the same day. This day is chosen to be 2015 March 20, the date of the solar eclipse. The study evaluates how the cadence of bipole data, ideal or nonideal coronal physics, and the variety of helicity injection mechanisms affect the accuracy of the simulations. Results show that significantly better agreement arises when using Advective Flux Transport (AFT) synoptic maps to drive the simulations, as compared to 27-day Carrington rotation synoptic maps. Using the nonideal effect of hyperdiffusion leads to the worst agreement with all coronal phenomena. Alternatively, when running either ideal or ohmic diffusion simulations with helicity condensation or bipoles with a self-helicity, a good agreement with both on-disk and limb structures can be found. This suggests that future studies aiming to simulate the corona and reproduce multiple phenomena on a given day should use data products such as AFT and avoid using the nonideal physics of hyperdiffusion. Publisher PDF

The High Resolution Imager (HRIEUV) telescope of the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) instrument onboard Solar Orbiter has observed EUV brightenings, so-called campfires, as fine-scale structures at coronal temperatures. The goal of this paper is to compare the basic geometrical (size, orientation) and physical (intensity, lifetime) properties of the EUV brightenings with regions of energy dissipation in a nonpotential coronal magnetic-field simulation. In the simulation, HMI line-of-sight magnetograms are used as input to drive the evolution of solar coronal magnetic fields and energy dissipation. We applied an automatic EUV-brightening detection method to EUV images obtained on 30 May 2020 by the HRI Euv telescope. We applied the same detection method to the simulated energy dissipation maps from the nonpotential simulation to detect simulated brightenings. We detected EUV brightenings with a density of 1.41 x 10(-3) brightenings/Mm(2) in the EUI observations and simulated brightenings between 2.76 x 10(-2) - 4.14 x 10(-2) brightenings/Mm 2 in the simulation, for the same time range. Although significantly more brightenings were produced in the simulations, the results show similar distributions of the key geometrical and physical properties of the observed and simulated brightenings. We conclude that the nonpotential simulation can successfully reproduce statistically the characteristic properties of the EUV brightenings (typically with more than 85% similarity); only the duration of the events is significantly different between observations and simulation. Further investigations based on high-cadence and high-resolution magnetograms from Solar Orbiter are under consideration to improve the agreement between observation and simulation., Solar Physics, 297 (10), ISSN:0038-0938, ISSN:1573-093X

Standard molecular classification of endometrial cancers (EC) is now endorsed by the WHO and identifies p53-abnormal (p53abn) EC as the subgroup with the poorest prognosis and the most likely to benefit from adjuvant chemo(radio)therapy. P53abn EC are POLE wildtype, mismatch repair proficient and show abnormal immunohistochemical (IHC) staining for p53. Correct interpretation of routinely performed p53 IHC has therefore become of paramount importance. We aimed to comprehensively investigate abnormal p53 IHC patterns and their relation to clinicopathological and molecular features. Tumor material of 411 molecularly classified high-risk EC from consenting patients from the PORTEC-3 clinical trial were collected. p53 IHC was successful in 408 EC and was considered abnormal when the tumor showed a mutant expression pattern (including subclonal): overexpression, null or cytoplasmic. The presence of pathogenic mutations was determined by next generation sequencing (NGS). Abnormal p53 expression was observed in 131/408 (32%) tumors. The most common abnormal p53 IHC pattern was overexpression (n = 89, 68%), followed by null (n = 12, 9%) and cytoplasmic (n = 3, 2%). Subclonal abnormal p53 staining was observed in 27 cases (21%), which was frequently but not exclusively, associated with POLE mutations and/or MMRd (n = 22/27; p < 0.001). Agreement between p53 IHC and TP53 NGS was observed in 90.7%, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 83.6% and 94.3%, respectively. Excluding POLEmut and MMRd EC, as per the WHO-endorsed algorithm, increased the accuracy to 94.5% with sensitivity and specificity of 95.0% and 94.1%, respectively. Our data shows that awareness of the abnormal p53 IHC patterns are prerequisites for correct EC molecular classification. Subclonal abnormal p53 expression is a strong indicator for POLEmut and/or MMRd EC. No significant differences in clinical outcomes were observed among the abnormal p53 IHC patterns. Our data support use of the WHO-endorsed algorithm and combining the different abnormal p53 IHC patterns into one diagnostic entity (p53abn EC).

Aims International early warning scores (EWS) including the additive National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and logistic EWS currently utilise physiological snapshots to predict clinical deterioration. We hypothesised that a dynamic score including vital sign trajectory would improve discriminatory power. Methods Multicentre retrospective analysis of electronic health record data from postoperative patients admitted to cardiac surgical wards in four UK hospitals. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-type regression (LASSO) was used to develop a dynamic model (DyniEWS) to predict a composite adverse event of cardiac arrest, unplanned intensive care re-admission or in-hospital death within 24 h. Results A total of 13,319 postoperative adult cardiac patients contributed 442,461 observations of which 4234 (0.96%) adverse events in 24 h were recorded. The new dynamic model (AUC = 0.80 [95% CI 0.78−0.83], AUPRC = 0.12 [0.10−0.14]) outperforms both an updated snapshot logistic model (AUC = 0.76 [0.73−0.79], AUPRC = 0.08 [0.60−0.10]) and the additive National Early Warning Score (AUC = 0.73 [0.70−0.76], AUPRC = 0.05 [0.02−0.08]). Controlling for the false alarm rates to be at current levels using NEWS cut-offs of 5 and 7, DyniEWS delivers a 7% improvement in balanced accuracy and increased sensitivities from 41% to 54% at NEWS 5 and 18% to –30% at NEWS 7. Conclusions Using an advanced statistical approach, we created a model that can detect dynamic changes in risk of unplanned readmission to intensive care, cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality and can be used in real time to risk-prioritise clinical workload.

Timely coronary reperfusion is critical for favorable outcomes after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). A substantial proportion of the total ischemic time is patient related, occurring before first medical contact (FMC). We aimed to expand the limited current understanding of the associations between prehospital intervals and clinical outcomes.We conducted a retrospective analysis of consecutive STEMI patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) (January 2009-March 2016) and assessed the associations between prehospital intervals and the incidence of new heart failure, cardiogenic shock, and hospital length of stay (LOS), adjusting for important clinical variables.A total of 773 patients (77% men, median age 65 years) met eligibility criteria. The median pre-911 activation interval was 29 minutes (interquartile range: 11, 89); the median 911 call to FMC interval was 12 minutes (interquartile range: 9, 15). In multivariable analysis, there was a V-shaped relationship between the pre-911 activation interval and outcomes: a lower likelihood of new heart failure (odds ratio [OR] 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30, 0.87), cardiogenic shock (OR 0.40; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.75) and prolonged LOS (OR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.42) for midrange intervals (11-88 minutes) when compared to the early ( 11-minute) interval. There was no statistically significant relationship between total pre-FMC time and FMC to device activation time.Among ambulance-transported STEMI patients receiving pPCI, the shortest and longest pre-911 activation time intervals were associated with poorer outcomes. However, variation in post-FMC interval alone was not associated with outcomes, suggesting that interventions to reduce pre-FMC intervals must be prioritized.

The present study investigates a mini-filament eruption associated with cancelling magnetic fluxes. The eruption originates from a small-scale loop complex commonly known as a Coronal Bright Point (CBP). The event is uniquely recorded in both the imaging and spectroscopic data taken with IRIS. We analyse IRIS spectroscopic and slit-jaw imaging observations as well as images taken in the extreme-ultraviolet channels of AIA, and line-of-sight magnetic-field data from HMI onboard the SDO. We also employ an NLFFF relaxation approach based on the HMI magnetogram time series. We identify a strong small-scale brightening as a micro-flare in a CBP. The mini-eruption manifests with the ejection of hot (CBP loops) and cool (mini-filament) plasma recorded in both the imaging and spectroscopic data. The micro-flare is preceded by the appearance of an elongated bright feature in the IRIS slit-jaw 1400 A images located above the polarity inversion line. The micro-flare starts with an IRIS pixel size brightening and propagates bi-directionally along the elongated feature. We detect in both the spectral and imaging IRIS data and AIA data, strong flows along and at the edges of the elongated feature which we believe represent reconnection outflows. Both edges of the elongated feature that wrap around the edges of the erupting MF evolve into a J-type shape creating a sigmoid appearance. A quasi-separatrix layer (QSL) is identified in the vicinity of the polarity inversion line by computing the squashing factor Q in different horizontal planes of the NLFFF model. The QSL reconnection site has the same spectral appearance as the so-called explosive events identified by strong blue- and red-shifted emission, thus answering a long outstanding question about the true nature of this spectral phenomenon., accepted for publication in A&A, the abstract is reduced in size, for the movies contact MM

Funding: D.H.M. would like to thank both the UK STFC and the ERC (Synergy grant: WHOLE SUN, grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support. D.H.M. would like to thank STFC for IAA funding under grant number SMC1-XAS012. ARY thanks STFC for support under grant ST/5000321/1. An important element of 3D data-driven simulations of solar magnetic fields is the determination of the horizontal electric field at the solar photosphere.This electric field is used to drive the 3D simulation and inject energy and helicity into the solar corona. One outstanding problem is the localisation of the horizontal electric field such that it is consistent with Ohm’s law. Yeates (ApJ, 836, 131, 2017) put forward a new “sparse” technique for computing the horizontal electric field from normal component magnetograms that minimises the number of non-zero values. This aims to produce a better representation of Ohm’s law compared to previously used “non-sparse” techniques. To test this new approach we apply it to active region (AR) 10977, along with the previously developed non-sparse technique of Mackay, Green and van Ballegooi-jen (ApJ, 729, 97, 2011). A detailed comparison of the two techniques with coronal observations is used to determine which is the most successful. Results show that the non-sparse technique of Mackay, Green, and van Ballegooijen (2011) produces the best representation for the formation and structure of the sigmoid above AR 10977. In contrast, the Yeates (2017) approach injects strong horizontal fields between spatially separated, evolving magnetic polarities. This injection produces highly twisted unphysical field lines with significantly higher magnetic energy and helicity. It is also demonstrated that the Yeates (2017) approach produces significantly different results that can be inconsistent with the observations depending on whether the horizontal electric field is solved for directly or indirectly through the magnetic vector potential. In contrast, the Mackay, Green, and van Ballegooijen (2011) method produces consistent results using either approach. The sparse technique of Yeates (2017) has significant pitfalls when applied to spatially resolved solar data, where future studies need to investigate why these problems arise. Publisher PDF

The history of the Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar), also referred to as Salmon below, in Lake Ontario is an accumulation of authentic published accounts, which were almost completed by J. R. Dymond before his death. H. H. MacKay completed the work on Dymond’s behalf (Dymond and MacKay, unpublished, 1966), but it remained largely unknown. The present authors (MEB, EH, PWB) have sought to present an updated subset of Dymond and MacKay’s work as the history of Lake Ontario Salmon is a crucial story in the history of the Great Lakes and its fisheries. The information provided should add materially to the knowledge of the causes that led to the decline and ultimate extirpation of a fascinating and valuable fish, notwithstanding all the efforts that were made to restore it by artificial means.

Summary NHS England recently mandated that the National Early Warning Score of vital signs be used in all acute hospital trusts in the UK despite limited validation in the postoperative setting. We undertook a multicentre UK study of 13,631 patients discharged from intensive care after risk-stratified cardiac surgery in four centres, all of which used VitalPAC™ to electronically collect postoperative National Early Warning Score vital signs. We analysed 540,127 sets of vital signs to generate a logistic score, the discrimination of which we compared with the national additive score for the composite outcome of: in-hospital death; cardiac arrest; or unplanned intensive care admission. There were 578 patients (4.2%) with an outcome that followed 4300 sets of observations (0.8%) in the preceding 24 h: 499 out of 578 (86%) patients had unplanned re-admissions to intensive care. Discrimination by the logistic score was significantly better than the additive score. Respective areas (95%CI) under the receiver-operating characteristic curve with 24-h and 6-h vital signs were: 0.779 (0.771–0.786) vs. 0.754 (0.746–0.761), p < 0.001; and 0.841 (0.829–0.853) vs. 0.813 (0.800–0.825), p < 0.001, respectively. Our proposed logistic Early Warning Score was better than the current National Early Warning Score at discriminating patients who had an event after cardiac surgery from those who did not.

Solar prominences (or filaments) are cool dense regions of plasma that exist within the solar corona. Their existence is due to magnetic fields that support the dense plasma against gravity and insulate it from the surrounding hot coronal plasma. They can be found across all latitudes on the Sun, where their physical dimensions span a wide range of sizes (length ~60–600 Mm, height ~10–100 Mm, and width ~4–10 Mm). Their lifetime can be as long as a solar rotation (27 days), at the end of which they often erupt to initiate coronal mass ejections. When viewed at the highest spatial resolution, solar prominences are found to be composed of many thin co-aligned threads or vertical sheets. Within these structures, both horizontal and vertical motions of up to 10–20 kms−1 are observed, along with a wide variety of oscillations. At the present time, a lack of detailed observations of filament formation gives rise to a wide variety of theoretical models of this process. These models aim to explain both the formation of the prominence’s strongly sheared and highly non-potential magnetic field along with the origin of the dense plasma. Prominences also exhibit a large-scale hemispheric pattern such that “dextral” prominences containing negative magnetic helicity dominate in the northern hemisphere, while “sinistral” prominences containing positive helicity dominate in the south. Understanding this pattern is essential to understanding the build-up and release of free magnetic energy and helicity on the Sun. Future theoretical studies will have to be tightly coordinated with observations conducted at multiple wavelengths (i.e., energy levels) in order to unravel the secrets of these objects.

BACKGROUND Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a leading cause of hospital admission in North America. Many patients with ACS experience challenges after discharge that impact their clinical outcomes and psychosocial well-being. SMS text messaging has the potential to provide support to patients during this postdischarge period. OBJECTIVE This study pilot tested a 60-day SMS text messaging intervention (Txt2Prevent) for patients with ACS. The primary objective was to compare self-management domains between usual care and usual care plus Txt2Prevent. The secondary objectives were to compare medication adherence, health-related quality of life, self-efficacy, and health care resource use between groups. The third objective was to assess the feasibility of the study protocol and the acceptability of the intervention. METHODS This was a randomized controlled trial with blinding of outcome assessors. We recruited 76 patients with ACS from St. Paul’s Hospital in Vancouver, Canada, and randomized them to 1 of 2 groups within 7 days of discharge. The Txt2Prevent program included automated 1-way SMS text messages about follow-up care, self-management, and healthy living. Data were collected during the index admission and at 60 days after randomization. The primary outcome was measured with the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). Other outcomes included the EQ-5D-5L, EQ-5D-5L Visual Analog Scale, a modified Sullivan Cardiac Self-Efficacy Scale, and Morisky Medication Adherence Scale scores, and self-reported health care resource use. Analyses of covariance were used to test the effect of group assignment on follow-up scores (controlling for baseline) and were considered exploratory in nature. Feasibility was assessed with descriptive characteristics of the study protocol. Acceptability was assessed with 2 survey questions and semistructured interviews. RESULTS There were no statistically significant differences between the groups for the heiQ domains (adjusted mean difference [Txt2Prevent minus usual care] for each domain—Health-directed activity: –0.13, 95% CI –0.39 to 0.13, P=.31; Positive and active engagement in life: 0.03, 95% CI –0.19 to 0.25, P=.76; Emotional distress: 0.04, 95% CI –0.22 to 0.29, P=.77; Self-monitoring and insight: –0.14, 95% CI –0.33 to 0.05, P=.15; Constructive attitudes and approaches: –0.10, 95% CI –0.36 to 0.17, P=.47; Skill technique and acquisition: 0.05, 95% CI –0.18 to 0.27, P=.69; Social integration and support: –0.12, 95% CI –0.34 to 0.10, P=.27; and Health services navigation: –0.05, 95% CI –0.29 to 0.19, P=.69). For the secondary outcomes, there were no statistically significant differences in adjusted analyses except in 1 self-efficacy domain (Total plus), where the Txt2Prevent group had lower scores (mean difference –0.36, 95% CI –0.66 to –0.50, P=.03). The study protocol was feasible, but recruitment took longer than expected. Over 90% (29/31 [94%]) of participants reported they were satisfied with the program. CONCLUSIONS The Txt2Prevent study was feasible to implement; however, although exploratory, there were no differences between the 2 groups in adjusted analyses except for 1 self-efficacy domain. As the intervention appeared acceptable, there is potential in using SMS text messages in this context. The design of the intervention may need to be reconsidered to have more impact on outcome measures. CLINICALTRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02336919; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02336919 INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-10.2196/resprot.6968

A single case study of a CBP in an equatorial coronal hole with an exceptionally large size is investigated to extend our understanding of the formation of mini-filaments, their destabilisation and the origin of the eruption triggering the formation of jet-like features recorded in the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray emission. We aim to explore the nature of the so-called micro-flares in CBPs associated with jets in coronal holes and mini coronal mass ejections in the quiet Sun. Co-observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, and GONG Halpha images are used together with a Non-Linear Force Free Field (NLFFF) relaxation approach, where the latter is based on a time series of HMI line-of-sight magnetograms. A mini-filament (MF) that formed beneath the CBP arcade around 3-4 h before the eruption is seen in the Halpha and EUV AIA images to lift up and erupt triggering the formation of an X-ray jet. No significant photospheric magnetic flux concentration displacement (convergence) is observed and neither is magnetic flux cancellation between the two main magnetic polarities forming the CBP in the time period leading to the MF liftoff. The CBP micro-flare is associated with three flare kernels that formed shortly after the MF liftoff. No observational signature is found for reconnection beneath the erupting MF. The applied NLFFF modelling successfully reproduces both the CBP loop complex as well as the magnetic flux rope that hosts the MF during the build-up to the eruption., 13 pages, 11 figures, the abstract has been reduced from its original length, accepted by A&A

The large field-of-view of the Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP) instrument on board the PRoject for Onboard Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) spacecraft provides a unique opportunity to study extended coronal structures observed in EUV in conjunction with global coronal magnetic field simulations. A global non-potential magnetic field model is used to simulate the evolution of the global corona from 1 September 2014 to 31 March 2015, driven by newly emerging bipolar active regions determined from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms. We compare the large-scale structure of the simulated magnetic field with structures seen off-limb in SWAP EUV observations. In particular, we investigate how successful the model is in reproducing regions of closed and open structures; the scale of structures; and compare the evolution of a coronal fan observed over several rotations. The model is found to accurately reproduce observed large-scale off-limb structures. When discrepancies do arise they mainly occur off the east solar limb due to active regions emerging on the far side of the Sun, which cannot be incorporated into the model until they are observed on the Earth-facing side. When such ``late'' active region emergences are incorporated into the model, we find that the simulated corona self-corrects within a few days, so that simulated structures off the west limb more closely match what is observed. Where the model is less successful, we consider how this may be addressed, through model developments or additional observational products., Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures

Context. Direct magnetic field measurements in solar prominences occur infrequently and are difficult to make and interpret. As a consequence, alternative methods are needed to derive the main properties of the magnetic field that supports the prominence mass. This is important for our understanding of solar prominences, but also for understanding how eruptive prominences may affect space weather. Aims. We present the first direct comparison of the magnetic field strength derived from spectro-polarimetric observations of a solar prominence, with corresponding results from a theoretical flux rope model constructed from on-disc normal component magnetograms. Methods. We first used spectro-polarimetric observations of a prominence obtained with the magnetograph THEMIS operating in the Canary Islands to derive the magnetic field of the observed prominence by inverting the Stokes parameters measured in the He D3 line. Next, we constructed two data-constrained non-linear force-free field (NLFFF) models of the same prominence. In one model we assumed a strongly twisted flux rope solution, and in the other a weakly twisted flux rope solution. Results. The physical extent of the prominence at the limb (height and length) is best reproduced with the strongly twisted flux rope solution. The line-of-sight average of the magnetic field for the strongly twisted solution results in a magnetic field that has a magnitude of within a factor of 1−2 of the observed magnetic field strength. For the peak field strength along the line of sight, an agreement to within 20% of the observations is obtained for the strongly twisted solution. The weakly twisted solution produces significantly lower magnetic field strengths and gives a poor agreement with the observations. Conclusions. The results of this first comparison are promising. We found that the flux rope insertion method of producing a NLFFF is able to deduce the overall properties of the magnetic field in an observed prominence.

Helicity is a fundamental property of a magnetic field but to date it has only been possible to observe its evolution in one star - the Sun. In this paper we provide a simple technique for mapping the large-scale helicity density across the surface of any star using only observable quantities: the poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components (which can be determined from Zeeman-Doppler imaging) and the stellar radius. We use a sample of 51 stars across a mass range of 0.1-1.34 M$_\odot$ to show how the helicity density relates to stellar mass, Rossby number, magnetic energy and age. We find that the large-scale helicity density increases with decreasing Rossby number $R_o$, peaking at $R_o \simeq 0.1$, with a saturation or decrease below that. For both fully- and partially-convective stars we find that the mean absolute helicity density scales with the mean squared toroidal magnetic flux density according to the power law: $|\langle{h\,}\rangle|$ $\propto$ $\langle{\rm{B_{tor}}^2_{}\,\rangle}^{0.86\,\pm\,0.04}$. The scatter in this relation is consistent with the variation across a solar cycle, which we compute using simulations and observations across solar cycles 23 and 24 respectively. We find a significant decrease in helicity density with age., 11 pages, 7 figures

We present observations and magnetic field models of an intermediate filament present on the Sun in August 2012, associated with a polarity inversion line that extends from AR 11541 in the east into the quiet sun at its western end. A combination of SDO/AIA, SDO/HMI, and GONG H alpha data allow us to analyse the structure and evolution of the filament from 2012 August 4 23:00 UT to 2012 August 6 08:00 UT when the filament was in equilibrium. By applying the flux rope insertion method, nonlinear force-free field models of the filament are constructed using SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetograms as the boundary condition at the two times given above. Guided by observed filament barbs, both modelled flux ropes are split into three sections each with a different value of axial flux to represent the non-uniform photospheric field distribution. The flux in the eastern section of the rope increases by 4$\times$10$^{20}$ Mx between the two models, which is in good agreement with the amount of flux cancelled along the internal PIL of AR 11541, calculated to be 3.2$\times$10$^{20}$ Mx. This suggests that flux cancellation builds flux into the filament's magnetic structure. Additionally, the number of field line dips increases between the two models in the locations where flux cancellation, the formation of new filament threads and growth of the filament is observed. This suggests that flux cancellation associated with magnetic reconnection forms concave-up magnetic field that lifts plasma into the filament. During this time, the free magnetic energy in the models increases by 0.2$\times$10$^{31}$ ergs., 17 pages, 10 figures

Funding: UK Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 647214); UK STFC via the Consolidated Grant SMC1/YST025 and SMC1/YST037 (S.L.Y.); UK STFC and the ERC (SynergyGrant: WHOLE SUN, Grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support (DHM). One of the main goals of solar physics is the timely identification of eruptive active regions. Space missions such as Solar Orbiter or future Space Weather forecasting missions would largely benefit from this achievement.Our aim is to produce a relatively simple technique that can provide real time indications or predictions that an active region will produce an eruption. We expand on the theoretical work of Pagano et al.(2019) that was able to distinguish eruptive from non-eruptive active regions.From this we introduce a new operational metric that uses a combination of observed line-of-sight magnetograms, 3D data-driven simulations and the projection of the 3D simulations forward in time. Results show that the new metric correctly distinguishes active regions as eruptive when observable signatures of eruption have been identified and as non-eruptive when there are no observable signatures of eruption. After successfully distinguishing eruptive from non-eruptive active regions we illustrate how this metric may be used in a “real-time” operational sense were three levels of warning are categorised. These categories are: high risk (red), medium risk (amber) and low risk (green) of eruption. Through considering individual cases we find that the separation into eruptive and non-eruptive active regions is more robust the longer the time series of observed magnetograms used to simulate the build up of magnetic stress and free magnetic energy within the active region. Finally, we conclude that this proof of concept study delivers promising results where the ability to categorise the risk of an eruption is a major achievement. Postprint

This research has received funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 647214). This work used the DiRAC@Durham facility managed by the Institute for Computational Cosmology on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk). The equipment was funded by BEIS capital funding via STFC capital grants ST/P002293/1, ST/R002371/1, and ST/S002502/1, Durham University and STFC operations grant ST/R000832/1. DiRAC is part of the National e-Infrastructure. S.L.Y. would like to acknowledge STFC for support via the Consolidated Grants SMC1/YST025 and SMC1/YST037. D.H.M. would like to thank both the UK STFC and the ERC (Synergy Grant: WHOLE SUN, Grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support. Active regions are the source of the majority of magnetic flux rope ejections that become coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To identify in advance which active regions will produce an ejection is key for both space weather prediction tools and future science missions such as Solar Orbiter. The aim of this study is to develop a new technique to identify which active regions are more likely to generate magnetic flux rope ejections. The new technique will aim to (i) produce timely space weather warnings and (ii) open the way to a qualified selection of observational targets for space-borne instruments. We use a data-driven nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model to describe the 3D evolution of the magnetic field of a set of active regions. We determine a metric to distinguish eruptive from noneruptive active regions based on the Lorentz force. Furthermore, using a subset of the observed magnetograms, we run a series of simulations to test whether the time evolution of the metric can be predicted. The identified metric successfully differentiates active regions observed to produce eruptions from the noneruptive ones in our data sample. A meaningful prediction of the metric can be made between 6 and 16 hr in advance. This initial study presents an interesting first step in the prediction of CME onset using only line-of-sight magnetogram observations combined with NLFFF modeling. Future studies will address how to generalize the model such that it can be used in a more operational sense and for a variety of simulation approaches. Publisher PDF

K.A.M. and D.H.M. gratefully acknowledge the support of the Leverhulme Trust, the STFC and the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland. K.A.M., A.S.S., and E.E.D. thank ISSI (Bern) for their support of the team "Understanding Solar Jets and their Role in Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics." D.H.M. thanks the EU for their support under FP7. Coronal jets occur frequently on the Sun, and may contribute significantly to the solar wind. With the suite of instruments available now, we can observe these phenomena in greater detail than ever before. Modeling and simulations can assist further with understanding the dynamic processes involved, but previous studies tended to consider only one mechanism (e.g., emergence or rotation) for the origin of the jet. In this study we model a series of idealized archetypal jet configurations and follow the evolution of the coronal magnetic field. This is a step toward understanding these idealized situations before considering their observational counterparts. Several simple situations are set up for the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field: a single parasitic polarity rotating or moving in a circular path; as well as opposite polarity pairs involved in flyby (shearing), cancellation or emergence; all in the presence of a uniform, open background magnetic field. The coronal magnetic field is evolved in time using a magnetofrictional relaxation method. While magnetofriction cannot accurately reproduce the dynamics of an eruptive phase, the structure of the coronal magnetic field, as well as the buildup of electric currents and free magnetic energy are instructive. Certain configurations and motions produce a flux rope and allow the significant buildup of free energy, reminiscent of the progenitors of so-called blowout jets, whereas other, simpler configurations are more comparable to the standard jet model. The next stage is a comparison with observed coronal jet structures and their corresponding photospheric evolution. Postprint Publisher PDF

Misidentification of taxa is understudied but has the potential to be a highly problematic issue. If misidentification is prevalent, there could be significant ramifications for work which relies upon a reliable taxonomic base, such as the description of new species, estimating the size of populations and species prioritisation. Here we used a match-mismatch experiment from psychology to determine the accuracy of species identification in 20 pairs of orchids (Angraecum spp. from Madagascar). The participants were split into specialist taxonomists and non-taxonomists. There was a 57.2% accuracy across all the participants. The specialist taxonomists had a high accuracy of 80.0%, with a sensitivity analysis producing an upper accuracy estimate of 90.7%. Non-taxonomists had a much lower accuracy of 55.9%. The results provide evidence of the need for specialist taxonomists, particularly in the case of identifying Malagasy orchids. Nevertheless, since misidentification is still prevalent for specialists, this is an issue that requires further research to understand how accurate identifications are made and also the implications of errors.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that exhibit weak or no eruption signatures in the low corona, known as stealth CMEs, are problematic as upon arrival at Earth they can lead to geomagnetic disturbances that were not predicted by space weather forecasters. We investigate the origin and eruption of a stealth event that occurred on 2015 January 3 that was responsible for a strong geomagnetic storm upon its arrival at Earth. To simulate the coronal magnetic field and plasma parameters of the eruption we use a coupled approach. This approach combines an evolutionary nonlinear force-free field model of the global corona with a MHD simulation. The combined simulation approach accurately reproduces the stealth event and suggests that sympathetic eruptions occur. In the combined simulation we found that three flux ropes form and then erupt. The first two flux ropes, which are connected to a large AR complex behind the east limb, erupt first producing two near-simultaneous CMEs. These CMEs are closely followed by a third, weaker flux rope eruption in the simulation that originated between the periphery of AR 12252 and the southern polar coronal hole. The third eruption coincides with a faint coronal dimming, which appears in the SDO/AIA 211 A observations, that is attributed as the source responsible for the stealth event and later the geomagnetic disturbance at 1 AU. The incorrect interpretation of the stealth event being linked to the occurrence of a single partial halo CME observed by LASCO/C2 is mainly due to the lack of STEREO observations being available at the time of the CMEs. The simulation also shows that the LASCO CME is not a single event but rather two near-simultaneous CMEs. These results show the significance of the coupled data-driven simulation approach in interpreting the eruption and that an operational L5 mission is crucial for space weather forecasting., Comment: Accepted in A&A, 17 pages, 12 figures

Editor – We read with great interest the early Newcastle experience of using National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to identify hospitalised COVID-19 patients at risk of clinical deterioration.[1][1] The study highlights an average >30 hour lag between triggering the NEWS2 ≥5 threshold and first

Magnetic reconnection, the rearrangement of magnetic field topology, is a fundamental physical process in magnetized plasma systems all over the universe1,2. Its process is difficult to be directly observed. Coronal structures, such as coronal loops and filament spines, often sketch the magnetic field geometry and its changes in the solar corona3. Here we show a highly suggestive observation of magnetic reconnection between an erupting solar filament and its nearby coronal loops, resulting in changes in connection of the filament. X-type structures form when the erupting filament encounters the loops. The filament becomes straight, and bright current sheets form at the interfaces with the loops. Many plasmoids appear in these current sheets and propagate bi-directionally. The filament disconnects from the current sheets, which gradually disperse and disappear, reconnects to the loops, and becomes redirected to the loop footpoints. This evolution of the filament and the loops suggests successive magnetic reconnection predicted by theories1 but rarely detected with such clarity in observations. Our results on the formation, evolution, and disappearance of current sheets, confirm three-dimensional magnetic reconnection theory and have implications for the evolution of dissipation regions and the release of magnetic energy for reconnection in many magnetized plasma systems.

This research has received funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 647214). D.H.M. would like to thank both the UK STFC and the ERC (Synergy grant: WHOLE SUN, grant Agreement No. 810218) for financial support. D.H.M. and P.P. would like to thank STFC for IAA funding under grant number SMC1-XAS012. This work used the DiRAC@Durham facility man-aged by the Institute for Computational Cosmology on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk. The equipment was funded by BEIS capital funding via STFC capital grants ST/P002293/1, ST/R002371/1 and ST/S002502/1,Durham University and STFC operations grant ST/R000832/1. DiRAC is part of the National e-Infrastructure. We acknowledge the use of the open source (gitorious.org/amrvac) MPI-AMRVAC software, relying on coding efforts from C. Xia, O.Porth, R. Keppens. CHIANTI is a collaborative project involving George Mason University, the University of Michigan(USA), University of Cambridge (UK) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (USA). Context. A new generation of coronagraphs used to study solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are being developed and launched. These coronagraphs will heavily rely on multi-channel observations where visible light (VL) and UV-EUV (ultraviolet-extreme ultraviolet) observations provide new plasma diagnostics. One of these instruments, Metis on board ESA-Solar Orbiter, will simultaneously observe VL and the UV Lyman-α line. The number of neutral hydrogen atoms (a small fraction of coronal protons) is a key parameter for deriving plasma properties, such as the temperature from the observed Lyman-α line intensity. However, these measurements are significantly affected if non-equilibrium ionisation effects occur, which can be relevant during CMEs. Aims. The aim of this work is to determine if non-equilibrium ionisation effects are relevant in CMEs and, in particular, when and in which regions of the CME plasma ionisation equilibrium can be assumed for data analysis. Methods. We used a magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a magnetic flux rope ejection to generate a CME. From this, we then reconstructed the ionisation state of hydrogen atoms in the CME by evaluating both the advection of neutral and ionised hydrogen atoms and the ionisation and recombination rates in the MHD simulation. Results. We find that the equilibrium ionisation assumption mostly holds in the core of the CME, which is represented by a magnetic flux rope. In contrast, non-equilibrium ionisation effects are significant at the CME front, where we find about 100 times more neutral hydrogen atoms than prescribed by ionisation equilibrium conditions. We find this to be the case even if this neutral hydrogen excess might be difficult to identify due to projection effects. Conclusions. This work provides key information for the development of a new generation of diagnostic techniques that aim to combine visible light and Lyman-α line emissions. The results show that non-equilibrium ionisation effects need to be considered when we analyse CME fronts. Incorrectly assuming equilibrium ionisation in these regions would lead to a systematic underestimate of plasma temperatures. Postprint

Solar filaments exhibit a global chirality pattern where dextral/sinistral filaments, corresponding to negative/positive magnetic helicity, are dominant in the northern/southern hemisphere. This pattern is opposite to the sign of magnetic helicity injected by differential rotation along east-west oriented polarity inversion lines, posing a major conundrum for solar physics. A resolution of this problem is offered by the magnetic helicity condensation model of Antiochos (2013). To investigate the global consequences of helicity condensation for the hemispheric chirality pattern, we apply a temporally and spatially averaged statistical approximation of helicity condensation. Realistic magnetic field configurations in both the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle are simulated. For the helicity condensation process, we assume convective cells consisting of positive/negative vorticities in the northern/southern hemisphere, which inject negative/positive helicity. The magnitude of the vorticity is varied as a free parameter, corresponding to different rates of helicity injection. To reproduce the observed percentages of dominant and minority filament chiralities, we find that a vorticity of magnitude 2.5 x 10-6 s-1 is required. This rate, however, is insufficient to produce the observed unimodal profile of chirality with latitude. To achieve this, a vorticity of at least 5 x 10-6 s-1 is needed. Our results place a lower limit on the small-scale helicity injection required to dominate differential rotation and reproduce the observed hemispheric pattern. Future studies should aim to establish whether the helicity injection rate due to convective flows and/or flux emergence across all latitudes of the Sun is consistent with our results. Publisher PDF

The large-scale magnetic fields of stars can be obtained with the Zeeman-Doppler-Imaging (ZDI) technique, but their interpretation is still challenging as the contribution of the small-scale field or the reliability of the reconstructed field properties is still not fully understood. To quantify this, we use 3D non-potential magnetic field simulations for slowly rotating solar-like stars as inputs to test the capabilities of ZDI. These simulations are based on a flux transport model connected to a non-potential coronal evolution model using the observed solar flux emergence pattern. We first compare four field prescriptions regarding their reconstruction capabilities and investigate the influence of the spatial resolution of the input maps on the corresponding circularly polarised profiles. We then generate circularly polarised spectra based on our high resolution simulations of three stellar models with different activity levels, and reconstruct their large-scale magnetic fields using a non-potential ZDI code assuming two different stellar inclination angles. Our results show that the ZDI technique reconstructs the main features of slowly rotating solar-like stars but with $\sim\,$one order of magnitude less magnetic energy. The large-scale field morphologies are recovered up to harmonic modes $\ell \sim 5$, especially after averaging over several maps for each stellar model. While ZDI is not able to reproduce the input magnetic energy distributions across individual harmonic modes, the fractional energies across the modes are generally within $20\,\%$ agreement. The fraction of axisymmetric and toroidal field tends to be overestimated for stars with solar flux emergence patterns for more pole-on inclination angles., 26 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The physical processes or trigger mechanisms that lead to the eruption of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the largest eruptive phenomenon in the heliosphere, are still undetermined. Low-altitude magnetic reconnection associated with flux cancellation appears to play an important role in CME occurrence as it can form an eruptive configuration and reduce the magnetic flux that contributes to the overlying, stabilizing field. We conduct the first comprehensive study of 20 small bipolar ARs (ARs) in order to probe the role of flux cancellation as an eruption trigger mechanism. We categorize eruptions from the bipolar regions into three types related to location, and find that the type of eruption produced depends on the evolutionary stage of the AR. In addition, we find that ARs that form eruptive structures by flux cancellation (low-altitude reconnection) had, on average, lower flux cancellation rates than the AR sample as a whole. Therefore, while flux cancellation plays a key role, by itself it is insufficient for the production of an eruption. The results provide supporting evidence that although flux cancellation in a sheared arcade may be able to build an eruptive configuration, a successful eruption depends upon the removal of sufficient overlying and stabilizing field. Convergence of the bipole polarities also appears to be present in regions that produce an eruption. These findings have important implications for understanding the physical processes that occur on our Sun in relation to CMEs and for space weather forecasting. Publisher PDF

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of hospitalization and death around the world. The prevalence of CVD is increasing and, therefore, development and investigation of effective programs to help people better self-manage their CVD and prevent secondary complications are needed. OBJECTIVE In this paper, we report on a protocol to evaluate Healing Circles—an evidence-based and patient-informed peer support mobile health program designed to facilitate self-management and support patients in their recovery from and management of CVD. We hypothesize that individuals with CVD who use Healing Circles will experience greater improvements to their self-management ability than individuals receiving usual care. METHODS In this single-blinded (assessor) randomized controlled trial, 250 community-living individuals with CVD will be randomized on a 1:1 basis to either Healing Circles or Usual Care. The primary outcome of self-management will be measured using the Health Education Impact Questionnaire version 3.0. Secondary outcomes include self-efficacy with chronic disease management, health-related quality of life, health resource use and costs, and electronic health literacy. Measurements will be taken at the baseline and every 6 months for 24 months. RESULTS The study started recruitment in September 2017. Individuals are currently being recruited for participation, and existing participants are currently on follow-up. Measurements will be taken every 6 months until the study end, which is anticipated in December 2019. CONCLUSIONS Healing Circles is a novel program aimed toward improving self-management through peer support. Given our real-world study design, our findings will be readily translatable into practice. If the results support our hypothesis, it will indicate that Healing Circles is an effective intervention for improving self-management and reducing health care use. CLINICALTRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03159325; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03159325 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/74DvxVKUd) INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPOR DERR1-10.2196/12322