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We used published data from outbreak investigations of monkeypox virus clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to estimate the distributions of critical epidemiological parameters. We estimated a mean incubation period of 9.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 8.5–11.5 days) and a mean generation time of 17.2 days (95% CrI 14.1–20.9 days) or 11.3 days (95% CrI 9.4–14.0 days), depending on the considered dataset. Presymptomatic transmission was limited. Those estimates suggest generally slower transmission dynamics in clade I than in clade IIb. The time-varying reproduction number for clade I in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold in the first half of 2024. However, in the South Kivu Province, where the newly identified subclade Ib has been associated with sustained human-to-human transmission, we estimated an effective reproduction number above the epidemic threshold (95% CrI 0.96–1.27).

Abstract Quantifying the potential spatial spread of an infectious pathogen is key to defining effective containment and control strategies. The aim of this study is to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at different distances in Italy before the first regional lockdown was imposed, identifying important sources of national spreading. To do this, we leverage on a probabilistic model applied to daily symptomatic cases retrospectively ascertained in each Italian municipality with symptom onset between January 28 and March 7, 2020. Results are validated using a multi-patch dynamic transmission model reproducing the spatiotemporal distribution of identified cases. Our results show that the contribution of short-distance ( $$\le 10 km)$$ ≤ 10 k m ) transmission increased from less than 40% in the last week of January to more than 80% in the first week of March 2020. On March 7, 2020, that is the day before the first regional lockdown was imposed, more than 200 local transmission foci were contributing to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. At the time, isolation measures imposed only on municipalities with at least ten ascertained cases would have left uncontrolled more than 75% of spillover transmission from the already affected municipalities. In early March, national-wide restrictions were required to curb short-distance transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy.

Abstract In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by means of an individual-based mathematical model calibrated to surveillance data. The model accounts for transmission within the MSM sexual contact network, in recreational and sex clubs attended by MSM, and in households. We indicate a strong spontaneous reduction in sexual transmission (61-87%) in affected MSM communities as the possible driving factor for the rapid decline in cases. The MSM sexual contact network was the main responsible for transmission (about 80%), with clubs and households contributing residually. Contact tracing prevented about half of the potential cases, and a higher success rate in tracing contacts could significantly amplify its effectiveness. Notably, immunizing the 23% of MSM with the highest sexual activity (10 or more partners per year) could completely prevent new mpox resurgences. This research underscores the importance of augmenting contact tracing, targeted immunization campaigns of high-risk groups, and fostering reactive behavioral changes as key strategies to manage and prevent the spread of emerging sexually transmitted pathogens like mpox within the MSM community.

Tolstoj quadrangle (H08) is located in the equatorial area of Mercury, between 22.5°N and 22.5°S and 144° and 216°E. Using the NASA/MESSENGER data, we compiled a geological map of the quadrangle at a scale of 1:3.000.000. The main basemap we used was the MDIS 166 m/pixel BDR mosaic. In addition, mosaics with high-incidence illumination from west and east, MDIS global color mosaics, and the MDIS global DEM have been taken into account. In the map, we considered three feature classes: geological units, lineaments, and surface features. Geological units consist of crater material and plains. Lineaments include crater and pit rims, and structures. Finally, surface features are subdivided into crater chains or clusters, hollows, faculae, bright and dark material. The geological map will be integrated into the global 1:3M geological map of Mercury, which is being prepared in support to the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission.

BackgroundThe time-varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks; however, delays between infection and reporting of cases hinder its accurate estimation in real-time. A number of nowcasting methods, leveraging available information on data consolidation delays, have been proposed to mitigate this problem.MethodsIn this work, we retrospectively validate the use of a nowcasting algorithm during 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by quantitatively assessing its performance against standard methods for the estimation of R.ResultsNowcasting significantly reduced the median lag in the estimation of R from 13 to 8 days, while concurrently enhancing accuracy. Furthermore, it allowed the detection of periods of epidemic growth with a lead of between 6 and 23 days.ConclusionsNowcasting augments epidemic awareness, empowering better informed public health responses.

IntroductionSeasonal influenza generally represents an underestimated public health problem with significant socioeconomic implications. Monitoring and detecting influenza epidemics are important tasks that require integrated strategies. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an emerging field that uses wastewater data to monitor the spread of disease and assess the health of a community. It can represent an integrative surveillance tool for better understanding the epidemiology of influenza and prevention strategies in public health.MethodsWe conducted a study that detected the presence of Influenza virus RNA using a wastewater-based approach. Samples were collected from five wastewater treatment plants in five different municipalities, serving a cumulative population of 555,673 Sicilian inhabitants in Italy. We used the RT-qPCR test to compare the combined weekly average of Influenza A and B viral RNA in wastewater samples with the average weekly incidence of Influenza-like illness (ILI) obtained from the Italian national Influenza surveillance system. We also compared the number of positive Influenza swabs with the viral RNA loads detected from wastewater. Our study investigated 189 wastewater samples.ResultsCumulative ILI cases substantially overlapped with the Influenza RNA load from wastewater samples. Influenza viral RNA trends in wastewater samples were similar to the rise of ILI cases in the population. Therefore, wastewater surveillance confirmed the co-circulation of Influenza A and B viruses during the season 2022/2023, with a similar trend to that reported for the weekly clinically confirmed cases.ConclusionWastewater-based epidemiology does not replace traditional epidemiological surveillance methods, such as laboratory testing of samples from infected individuals. However, it can be a valuable complement to obtaining additional information on the incidence of influenza in the population and preventing its spread.

Early key visual skills, such as tracking objects, sustaining gaze, and shifting attention, rapidly develop within the first 6 months of infant life. These abilities play a significant role in the development of cognitive functions but are frequently compromised in infants at risk of developing neurodevelopmental disorders. This systematic review evaluates the potential of early vision function in the prediction of cognition at or above 12 months. Five databases were searched for relevant articles, and their quality was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool. Eight studies were suitable, including 521 preterm-born infants at varying risk of developing Cerebral Palsy (CP). Each study showed a significant correlation between vision and cognitive outcome. Predictive analysis including sensitivity and specificity was possible for three studies. Methodological quality was variable. Sensitivity ranged between 57 and 100% in the vision function assessments items, while specificity ranged from 59 to 100%. In conclusion, early vision showed strong correlation with cognition ≥ 12 months. While no single vision assessment was found to be superior, evaluation of specific functions, namely fixation and following, both at term age and between 3 and 6 months, demonstrated strong predictive validity.

We estimated the mean serial interval for Sudan virus in Uganda to be 11.7 days (95 CI% 8.2–15.8 days). Estimates for the 2022 outbreak indicate a mean basic reproduction number of 2.4–2.7 (95% CI 1.7–3.5). Estimated net reproduction numbers across districts suggest a marked spatial heterogeneity.

ImportanceCerebral palsy (CP) is the most common childhood physical disability. Early intervention for children younger than 2 years with or at risk of CP is critical. Now that an evidence-based guideline for early accurate diagnosis of CP exists, there is a need to summarize effective, CP-specific early intervention and conduct new trials that harness plasticity to improve function and increase participation. Our recommendations apply primarily to children at high risk of CP or with a diagnosis of CP, aged 0 to 2 years.ObjectiveTo systematically review the best available evidence about CP-specific early interventions across 9 domains promoting motor function, cognitive skills, communication, eating and drinking, vision, sleep, managing muscle tone, musculoskeletal health, and parental support.Evidence reviewThe literature was systematically searched for the best available evidence for intervention for children aged 0 to 2 years at high risk of or with CP. Databases included CINAHL, Cochrane, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, and Scopus. Systematic reviews and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) were appraised by A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) or Cochrane Risk of Bias tools. Recommendations were formed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework and reported according to the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research, and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument.FindingsSixteen systematic reviews and 27 RCTs met inclusion criteria. Quality varied. Three best-practice principles were supported for the 9 domains: (1) immediate referral for intervention after a diagnosis of high risk of CP, (2) building parental capacity for attachment, and (3) parental goal-setting at the commencement of intervention. Twenty-eight recommendations (24 for and 4 against) specific to the 9 domains are supported with key evidence: motor function (4 recommendations), cognitive skills (2), communication (7), eating and drinking (2), vision (4), sleep (7), tone (1), musculoskeletal health (2), and parent support (5).Conclusions and relevanceWhen a child meets the criteria of high risk of CP, intervention should start as soon as possible. Parents want an early diagnosis and treatment and support implementation as soon as possible. Early intervention builds on a critical developmental time for plasticity of developing systems. Referrals for intervention across the 9 domains should be specific as per recommendations in this guideline.

Abstract The worldwide inequitable access to vaccination claims for a re-assessment of policies that could minimize the COVID-19 burden in low-income countries. Nine months after the launch of the national vaccination program in March 2021, only 3.4% of the Ethiopian population received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to estimate the level of immunity accrued before the launch of vaccination in the Southwest Shewa Zone (SWSZ) and to evaluate the impact of alternative age priority vaccination targets in a context of limited vaccine supply. The model was informed with available epidemiological evidence and detailed contact data collected across different geographical settings (urban, rural, or remote). We found that, during the first year of the pandemic, the mean proportion of critical cases occurred in SWSZ attributable to infectors under 30 years of age would range between 24.9 and 48.0%, depending on the geographical setting. During the Delta wave, the contribution of this age group in causing critical cases was estimated to increase on average to 66.7–70.6%. Our findings suggest that, when considering the vaccine product available at the time (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; 65% efficacy against infection after 2 doses), prioritizing the elderly for vaccination remained the best strategy to minimize the disease burden caused by Delta, irrespectively of the number of available doses. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 50 years would have averted 40 (95%PI: 18–60), 90 (95%PI: 61–111), and 62 (95%PI: 21–108) critical cases per 100,000 residents in urban, rural, and remote areas, respectively. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 30 years would have averted an average of 86–152 critical cases per 100,000 individuals, depending on the setting considered. Despite infections among children and young adults likely caused 70% of critical cases during the Delta wave in SWSZ, most vulnerable ages should remain a key priority target for vaccination against COVID-19.

Monitoring the genetic variability of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) is of paramount importance, especially for the potential implication of key antigenic mutations on the emergence of immune escape variants. Thus, to describe the genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of hRSV circulating in Sicily (Italy), a total of 153 hRSV whole-genome sequences collected from 770 hRSV-positive subjects between 2017 and 2023, before the introduction of expanded immunization programs into the population, were investigated. The phylogenetic analyses indicated that the genotypes GA.2.3.5 (ON1) for hRSV-A and GB.5.0.5a (BA9) for hRSV-B co-circulated in our region. Amino acid (AA) substitutions in the surface and internal proteins were evaluated, including the F protein antigenic sites, as the major targets of immunoprophylactic monoclonal antibodies and vaccines. Overall, the proportion of AA changes ranged between 1.5% and 22.6% among hRSV-A, whereas hRSV-B varied in the range 0.8–16.9%; the latter was more polymorphic than hRSV-A within the key antigenic sites. No AA substitutions were found at site III of both subgroups. Although several non-synonymous mutations were found, none of the polymorphisms known to potentially affect the efficacy of current preventive measures were documented. These findings provide new insights into the global hRSV molecular epidemiology and highlight the importance of defining a baseline genomic picture to monitor for future changes that might be induced by the selective pressures of immunological preventive measures, which will soon become widely available.

BackgroundEmerging arboviral diseases in Europe pose a challenge due to difficulties in detecting and diagnosing cases during the initial circulation of the pathogen. Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. Quantification of the reporting delays of cases is vital to plan and assess surveillance and control strategies. Here, we provide estimates of reporting delays during an emerging arboviral outbreak and indications on how delays may have impacted onward transmission.Methodology/principal findingsUsing descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meyer curves we analyzed case reporting delays (the period between the date of symptom onset and the date of notification to the public health authorities) during the 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreak. We further investigated the effect of outbreak detection on reporting delays by means of a Cox proportional hazard model. We estimated that the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but this was reduced to 8 days after the notification of the first case. Cases with symptom onset after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, however only 3.6% were notified within 24h from symptom onset. Remarkably, we found that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the detection of the outbreak.Conclusions/significanceThese results suggest that efforts should be undertaken to improve the early detection and identification of arboviral cases, as well as the management of vector species to mitigate the impact of long reporting delays.

Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission in schools has been hard to quantify due to the large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in young individuals. We applied a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the transmission chains between 284 SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained during 87 school outbreak investigations conducted between March and April 2021 in Italy. Under the policy of reactive quarantines, we found that 42.5% (95%CrI: 29.5–54.3%) of infections among school attendees were caused by school contacts. The mean number of secondary cases infected at school by a positive individual during in-person education was estimated to be 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.23–0.43), with marked heterogeneity across individuals. Specifically, we estimated that only 26.0% (95%CrI: 17.6–34.1%) of students and school personnel who tested positive during in-person education caused at least one secondary infection at school. Positive individuals who attended school for at least 6 days before being isolated or quarantined infected on average 0.49 (95%CrI: 0.14–0.83) secondary cases. Our findings provide quantitative insights on the contribution of school transmission to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young individuals. Identifying positive cases within 5 days after exposure to their infector could reduce onward transmission at school by at least 30%.

Natural disasters and epidemics are unfortunate recurring events that lead to huge societal and economic loss. Recent advances in supercomputing can facilitate simulations of such scenarios in (or even ahead of) real-time, therefore supporting the design of adequate responses by public authorities. By incorporating high-velocity data from sensors and modern high-performance computing systems, ensembles of simulations and advanced analysis enable urgent decision-makers to better monitor the disaster and to employ necessary actions (e.g., to evacuate populated areas) for mitigating these events. Unfortunately, frameworks to support such versatile and complex workflows for urgent decision-making are only rarely available and often lack in functionalities. This paper gives an overview of the VESTEC project and framework, which unifies orchestration, simulation, in-situ data analysis, and visualization of natural disasters that can be driven by external sensor data or interactive intervention by the user. We show how different components interact and work together in VESTEC and describe implementation details. To disseminate our experience three different types of disasters are evaluated: a Wildfire in La Jonquera (Spain), a Mosquito-Borne disease in two regions of Italy, and the magnetic reconnection in the Earth magnetosphere.

The capacity of the Child Behavior Checklist 1½-5 (CBCL 1½-5) to identify children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) at 18 months was tested on 37 children clinically referred for ASD and 46 children at elevated likelihood of developing ASD due to having an affected brother/sister. At 30 months the clinically referred children all received a confirmatory diagnosis, and 10 out of 46 siblings received a diagnosis of ASD. CBCL 1½-5 profiles were compared with a group of matched children with typical development (effect of cognitive level controlled for). The capacity of the CBCL 1½-5 DSM Oriented-Pervasive Developmental Problems scale to differentiate correctly between children diagnosed with ASD and children with typical development appeared dependent on group ascertainment methodology.

We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period of 9.1 (95% CI 6.5–10.9) days, mean generation time of 12.5 (95% CI 7.5–17.3) days, and reproduction number among men who have sex with men of 2.43 (95% CI 1.82–3.26).

BackgroundOutbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in temperate areas are not frequent, and limited in number of cases. We investigate the associations between habitat factors and temperature on individuals' risk of chikungunya (CHIKV) in a non-endemic area by spatially analyzing the data from the 2017 Italian outbreak.Methodology/principal findingsWe adopted a case-control study design to analyze the association between land-cover variables, temperature, and human population density with CHIKV cases. The observational unit was the area, at different scales, surrounding the residence of each CHIKV notified case. The statistical analysis was conducted considering the whole dataset and separately for the resort town of Anzio and the metropolitan city of Rome, which were the two main foci of the outbreak. In Rome, a higher probability for the occurrence of CHIKV cases is associated with lower temperature (OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61-0.85) and with cells with higher vegetation coverage and human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05). In Anzio, CHIKV case occurrence was positively associated with human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06) but not with habitat factors or temperature.Conclusion/significanceUsing temperature, human population density and vegetation coverage data as drives for CHIKV transmission, our estimates could be instrumental in assessing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of experiencing arboviral diseases in non-endemic temperate areas.

Abstract Background Children with cerebral palsy (CP) often have communication impairments, including speech altered intelligibility. Multiple levels of disrupted speech have been reported in CP, which negatively impact on participation and quality of life, with increase of care needs. Augmentative Alternative Communication (AAC) is an option, with debated benefits and limitations, in particular for its functional use. This is supported by a substantial lack of defined evidences in favor of direct speech articulation intervention in CP. Motor learning-based interventions are effective in CP and are the basis of speech motor interventions such as PROMPT (Prompts for Restructuring Oral Muscular Phonetic Targets). The PROMPT speech motor treatment provides tactile-kinesthetic inputs to facilitate articulatory movements by dynamic modelling, resulting in more efficient motor patterns that can be integrated into speech and communication. In CP, exploratory evidences support the feasibility and preliminarily advantages on intelligibility of motor speech treatments, such as PROMPT, with increased speech motor control, also documented by kinematic analyses. Methods A randomized waitlist-control trial will be conducted in children aged between 3- and 10-years having CP and dysarthria (estimated sample size = 60 children). Children will be allocated in the immediate intervention or in the waitlist control group. The intervention consists of an intensive 3 weeks period of twice-a-day administration of PROMPT. Standard care will be administered in the control (waitlist) group. After repeated baseline assessments (T0), the PROMPT treated group will undergo the experimental 3-week intervention period, with T1 assessment at the end. A further T2 assessment will be provided at medium term (3 months after the end of the intervention) for evaluating the stability of intervention. Primary and secondary speech clinical and kinematics outcome measures will be collected at T0, T1 and T2. Discussion This paper describes the study protocol consisting of a RCT with two main objectives: (1) to evaluate the or short-term benefits of an intensive speech motor intervention on speech and intelligibility in children with CP and the stability of the intervention at medium term; (2) to describe the kinematic correlates of speech motor control modifications. Trial registration Trial registration date 06/12/2019; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04189159 .

Abstract Background Children with neurological impairment may have dysphagia and/or gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD), which predispose to complications affecting the airways, increasing risk for aspiration-induced acute and chronic lung disease, or secondarily malnutrition, further neurodevelopmental disturbances, stressful interactions with their caregivers and chronic pain. Only multidisciplinary clinical feeding evaluation and empirical trials are applied to provide support to the management of feeding difficulties related to dysphagia or GERD, but no standardized feeding or behavioral measure exists at any age to assess aspiration risk and support the indication to perform a videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS) or a fibre-optic endoscopic examination of swallowing (FEES), in particular in newborns and infants with neurological impairments. Lung ultrasound (LUS) has been proposed as a non-invasive, radiation-free tool for the diagnosis of pulmonary conditions in infants, with high sensitivity and specificity. Methods A RCT will be conducted in infants aged between 0 and 6 years having, or being at risk for, cerebral palsy, or other neurodevelopmental disease that determines abnormal muscular tone or motor developmental delay assessed by a quantitative scale for infants or if there is the suspicion of GERD or dysphagia based on clinical symptoms. Infants will be allocated in one of 2 groups: 1) LUS-monitored management (LUS-m); 2) Standard care management (SC-m) and after baseline assessment (T0), both groups will undergo an experimental 6-months follow-up. In the first 3 months, infants will be evaluated a minimum of 1 time per month, in-hospital, for a total of 3 LUS-monitored meal evaluations. Primary and secondary endpoint measures will be collected at 3 and 6 months. Discussion This paper describes the study protocol consisting of a RCT with two main objectives: (1) to evaluate the benefits of the use of LUS for monitoring silent and apparent aspiration in the management of dysphagia and its impact on pulmonary illness and growth and (2) to investigate the impact of the LUS management on blood sample and bone metabolism, pain and interaction with caregivers. Trial registration Trial registration date 02/05/2020; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04253951 .

Introduction Cerebral palsy (CP) is the most common physical disability of childhood worldwide. Historically the diagnosis was made between 12 and 24 months, meaning data about effective early interventions to improve motor outcomes are scant. In high-income countries, two in three children will walk. This evaluator-blinded randomised controlled trial will investigate the efficacy of an early and sustained Goals–Activity–Motor Enrichment approach to improve motor and cognitive skills in infants with suspected or confirmed CP.Methods and analysis Participants will be recruited from neonatal intensive care units and the community in Australia across four states. To be eligible for inclusion infants will be aged 3–6.5 months corrected for prematurity and have a diagnosis of CP or ‘high risk of CP’ according to the International Clinical Practice Guideline criteria. Eligible participants whose caregivers consent will be randomly allocated to receive usual care or weekly sessions at home from a GAME-trained study physiotherapist or occupational therapist, paired with a daily home programme, until age 2. The study requires 150 participants per group to detect a 0.5 SD difference in motor skills at 2 years of age, measured by the Peabody Developmental Motor Scales-2. Secondary outcomes include gross motor function, cognition, functional independence, social–emotional development and quality of life. A within-trial economic evaluation is also planned.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained from the Sydney Children’s Hospital Network Human Ethics Committee in April 2017 (ref number HREC/17/SCHN/37). Outcomes will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publications, presentations at international conferences and consumer websites.Trial registration number ACTRN12617000006347.

This action research discovers the learning preferences of middle school students enrolled in an advanced steel drum class in central Florida, specifically their attitudes toward the learner-centered approach while composing and learning music. Sixteen participants compare the traditional teacher-led formal instruction to student-led informal learning across three projects: composition, peer teaching, and student-led small group with the introduction of Modern Band instruments. Students are given creative freedom to choose their own friendship groups, instruments, and songs. Ease, enjoyment, and success rates are measured through questionnaires, video recording, field notes, and interviews. Student preferences toward teacher-directed and peer-directed learning change throughout the study, from student-led learning to teacher-led instruction as the tasks become more difficult. In addition, preferred learning techniques of the steel drum are found to be reading notation, listening to the music, and demonstrating how to play the instrument through kinesthetic means. Music teachers can successfully implement a more learner-centered classroom by planning lessons that are in line with student ability and background knowledge, while incrementally increasing challenges.

Reactive school class closures have been widely implemented to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks. Here, the authors show that, compared to symptom-prompted PCR testing, screening for cases in schools with antigen tests leads to greater reductions in infection rates in both students and the wider community.