Search

IMPORTANCE: Birth at 39 weeks' gestation is common and thought to be safe for mother and neonate. However, findings of long-term outcomes for children born at this gestational age have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of birth at 39 weeks' gestation with childhood numeracy and literacy scores at ages 7 to 9 years compared with birth at 40 to 42 weeks' gestation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this Australian statewide, population-based cohort study using a causal inference framework based on target trial emulation, perinatal data on births between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011, were linked to educational outcomes at 7 to 9 years of age. Statistical analyses were performed from December 2022 to June 2023. EXPOSURE: Birth at 39 weeks' gestation compared with birth at 40 to 42 weeks' gestation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Numeracy and literacy outcomes were assessed at 7 to 9 years of age using Australian National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy data and defined by overall z score across 5 domains (grammar and punctuation, reading, writing, spelling, and numeracy). Multiple imputation and doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment were used to estimate population average causal effects. RESULTS: The study population included 155 575 children. Of these children, 49 456 (31.8%; 24 952 boys [50.5%]) were born at 39 weeks' gestation and were compared with 106 119 (68.2%; 52 083 boys [49.1%]) born at 40 to 42 weeks' gestation. Birth at 39 weeks' gestation was not associated with altered educational outcomes for children aged 7 to 9 years compared with their peers born at 40 to 42 weeks' gestation (mean [SE] z score, 0.0008 [0.0019] vs -0.0031 [0.0038]; adjusted risk difference, -0.004 [95% CI, -0.015 to 0.007]). Each educational domain was investigated, and no significant difference was found in grammar and punctuation (risk difference [RD], -0.006 [95% CI, -0.016 to 0.005]), numeracy (RD, -0.009 [95% CI

BACKGROUND: Interest in lifetime lung function trajectories has increased in the context of emerging evidence that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can arise from multiple disadvantaged lung function pathways, including those that stem from poor lung function in childhood. To our knowledge, no previous study has investigated both obstructive and restrictive lifetime patterns concurrently, while accounting for potential overlaps between them. We aimed to investigate lifetime trajectories of the FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio, FVC, and their combinations, relate these combined trajectory groups to static lung volume and gas transfer measurements, and investigate both risk factors for and consequences of these combined trajectory groups. METHODS: Using z scores from spirometry measured at ages 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (n=2422), we identified six FEV1/FVC ratio trajectories and five FVC trajectories via group-based trajectory modelling. Based on whether trajectories of the FEV1/FVC ratio and FVC were low (ie, low from childhood or adulthood) or normal, four patterns of lifetime spirometry obstruction or restriction were identified and compared against static lung volumes and gas transfer. Childhood and adulthood characteristics and morbidities of these patterns were investigated. FINDINGS: The prevalence of the four lifetime spirometry patterns was as follows: low FEV1/FVC ratio only, labelled as obstructive-only, 25·8%; low FVC only, labelled as restrictive-only, 10·5%; both low FEV1/FVC ratio and low FVC, labelled as mixed, 3·5%; and neither low FEV1/FVC ratio nor low FVC, labelled as reference, 60·2%. The prevalence of COPD at age 53 years was highest in the mixed pattern (31 [37%] of 84 individuals) followed by the obstructive-only pattern (135 [22%] of 626 individuals). Individuals with the mixed pattern also had the highest prevalence of parental asthma, childhood respiratory illnesses, adult as

BACKGROUND: While policies to reduce smoking in many countries have been successful, disadvantaged groups (such as low-income groups) have only seen minor gains. People with disability are one such disadvantaged group and are more likely to smoke. However, evidence is limited on trends and inequalities in smoking for disabled people and on whether those also on low incomes are more likely to smoke. METHODS: We use annual data from 2001 to 2020 of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. We use a Bayesian model to estimate smoking prevalence trends and inequalities for people with disability (2020, n = 1,370) and without disability (2020, n = 6,229) across the whole population and within income tertiles. To avoid reverse causation (smoking causing disability), we focus on younger people (15-44 years). RESULTS: Absolute reductions (per 100 people, [95% credible intervals]) in smoking were similar for people with (-13 [-16, -11]) and without disability (-15 [-16, -14]), with stable absolute but increasing relative inequalities. In the low-income group, absolute reductions in smoking prevalence for people with disability (-10 [-14, -6]) were smaller than in people without disability (-14 [-15, -12]), resulting in moderate evidence for increasing absolute inequalities (4 [0, 8]) and strong evidence for increasing relative inequalities. In high-income groups, disability-related absolute inequalities narrowed (-6 [-10, -3]), and relative inequalities were stable. CONCLUSIONS: Disabled people in Australia, especially those on low incomes, show signs of being left behind in efforts to reduce smoking.

Objective: To determine the causal effect of in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) on primary school-age childhood developmental and educational outcomes, compared with outcomes following spontaneous conception. Design(s): Causal inference methods (based on the potential outcomes approach) were used to analyses observation data in a way that emulates the results of a target randomised clinical trial. Method(s): The study cohort comprised state-wide linked maternal and childhood administrative data from Victoria, Australia. The study included singleton infants conceived spontaneously or via IVF and born between 2005-2014, who had school-age developmental and educational outcomes assessed. The exposure of interest was conception via IVF, with those born after spontaneous conception as the control group. Two separate measures of childhood outcome were examined: The Australian Early Developmental Consensus (AEDC), a broad developmental assessment conducted for all children in their first year of primary school (age 4-6, n = 172,000); and the National Assessment Program -Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN), a school-based psychometric test first undertaken during their fourth year of primary school (grade three) at age 7-9 (n = 342,311). We combined inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment to estimate population average causal effects. Result(s): The final cohort included 412,713 children across the two outcome cohorts. Linked records were available for 4,697 IVF-conceived cases and 168,503 controls for AEDC outcome data, and 8,976 cases and 333,335 controls for NAPLAN data. The mothers of IVF-conceived children were older, more highly educated mothers, who lived in more socio-economic advantaged areas and were less likely to be from non-English speaking backgrounds. There was no evidence against the null hypothesis that there is no causal effect of IVF-conception on the on the risk of developmental vulnerability at school-entry compared to spontaneously conceived chil

BACKGROUND: Chronic bronchitis in childhood is associated with a diagnosis of asthma and/or bronchiectasis a few years later, however, consequences into middle-age are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between childhood bronchitis and respiratory-related health outcomes in middle-age. DESIGN: Cohort study from age 7 to 53 years. SETTING: General population of European descent from Tasmania, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 3202 participants of the age 53-year follow-up (mean age 53, range 51-55) of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study cohort who were born in 1961 and first investigated at age 7 were included in our analysis. STATISTICAL METHODS: Multivariable linear and logistic regression. The association between parent reported childhood bronchitis up to age 7 and age 53-year lung conditions (n=3202) and lung function (n=2379) were investigated. RESULTS: Among 3202 participants, 47.5% had one or more episodes of childhood bronchitis, classified according to severity based on the number of episodes and duration as: 'non-recurrent bronchitis' (28.1%); 'recurrent non-protracted bronchitis' (18.1%) and 'recurrent-protracted bronchitis' (1.3%). Age 53 prevalence of doctor-diagnosed asthma and pneumonia (p-trend <0.001) and chronic bronchitis (p-trend=0.07) increased in accordance with childhood bronchitis severities. At age 53, 'recurrent-protracted bronchitis' (the most severe subgroup in childhood) was associated with doctor-diagnosed current asthma (OR 4.54, 95% CI 2.31 to 8.91) doctor-diagnosed pneumonia (OR=2.18 (95% CI 1.00 to 4.74)) and, paradoxically, increased transfer factor for carbon monoxide (z-score +0.51 SD (0.15-0.88)), when compared with no childhood bronchitis. CONCLUSION: In this cohort born in 1961, one or more episodes of childhood bronchitis was a frequent occurrence. 'Recurrent-protracted bronchitis', while uncommon, was especially linked to multiple respiratory outcomes almost five decades later, including asthma, pneumonia and rais

IMPORTANCE: Elective births at 39 weeks' gestation are increasing. While this option may improve maternal and perinatal outcomes compared with expectant management, longer-term childhood developmental outcomes are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between elective birth at 39 weeks' gestation and the risk of childhood developmental vulnerability. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: For this cohort study, 2 causal inference analyses were conducted using Australian statewide, population-based data. Perinatal data from births between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2013, were linked to childhood developmental outcomes at age 4 to 6 years (assessed using multiple imputation via inverse probability-weighted regression adjustment). Data analyses were conducted between September 7 and November 9, 2021. EXPOSURES: Two exposure groups were considered: (1) elective birth between 39 weeks and 0 days' and 39 weeks and 6 days' gestation vs expectant management and (2) birth via induction of labor vs planned cesarean delivery among those born electively at 39 weeks' gestation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Childhood developmental vulnerability at school entry, defined as scoring below the 10th percentile in at least 2 of 5 developmental domains (physical health and well-being, social competence, emotional maturity, school-based language and cognitive skills, and communication skills and general knowledge). RESULTS: Of 176 236 births with linked outcome data, 88 165 met the inclusion criteria. Among these, 15 927 (18.1%) were elective births at 39 weeks' gestation (induction of labor or planned cesarean delivery), and 72 238 (81.9%) were expectantly managed with subsequent birth between 40 and 43 weeks' gestation. Compared with expectant management, elective birth at 39 weeks' gestation was not associated with an altered risk of childhood global developmental vulnerability (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96-1.12) or with developmental vulnerability

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 Index (Fib4) have been validated against liver biopsy for detecting advanced hepatic fibrosis in HFE hemochromatosis. We determined the diagnostic utility for advanced hepatic fibrosis of Hepascore and transient elastography compared with APRI and Fib4 in 134 newly diagnosed HFE hemochromatosis subjects with serum ferritin levels > 300 µg/L using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis and APRI- (> 0.44) or Fib4- (> 1.1) cut-offs for AHF, or a combination of both. Compared with APRI, Hepascore demonstrated an AUROC for advanced fibrosis of 0.69 (95% CI 0.56-0.83; sensitivity = 69%, specificity = 65%; P = 0.01) at a cut-off of 0.22. Using a combination of APRI and Fib4, the AUROC for Hepascore for advanced fibrosis was 0.70 (95% CI 0.54-0.86, P = 0.02). Hepascore was not diagnostic for detection of advanced fibrosis using the Fib4 cut-off. Elastography was not diagnostic using either APRI or Fib4 cut-offs. Hepascore and elastography detected significantly fewer true positive or true negative cases of advanced fibrosis compared with APRI and Fib4, except in subjects with serum ferritin levels > 1000 µg/L. In comparison with APRI or Fib4, Hepascore or elastography may underdiagnose advanced fibrosis in HFE Hemochromatosis, except in individuals with serum ferritin levels > 1000 µg/L.

STUDY QUESTION: Do randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating endometrial scratching suffer from methodological issues including insufficient trial registration, statistical errors or irreproducibility, randomisation errors or miscellaneous issues? SUMMARY ANSWER: The majority of RCTs investigating endometrial scratching have methodological issues. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: A large number of small RCTs investigating the effectiveness of endometrial scratching prior to in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intrauterine insemination (IUI)/intercourse have reported favourable findings. Subsequently, systematic reviews incorporating these RCTs yielded meta-analyses in favour of endometrial scratching. Endometrial scratching has been widely adopted by infertility specialists around the world. Recently, an international RCT including 1364 women reported no benefit from endometrial scratching before IVF. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We evaluated several methodological issues of RCTs investigating the effectiveness of endometrial scratching prior to IVF and IUI/intercourse. We identified 25 RCTs for IVF and 12 RCTs for IUI/intercourse with full-text publication. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We assessed the RCTs on the following criteria: adequacy of trial registration, statistical issues (description of statistical methods and reproducibility of univariable statistical analysis), excessive similarity or difference in baseline characteristics that is not compatible with chance (Monte Carlo simulations and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) and miscellaneous methodological issues. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of 25 RCTs evaluating endometrial scratching prior to IVF, only eight (32%) had adequate trial registration. In total, 10 (40%) RCTs had issues regarding statistical methods. Nine (69%, 13 applicable) RCTs had at least one inconsistency between reported and reproduced univariable statistical analysis for categorical baseline/intermediate characteristics. Statisti

BACKGROUND: International comparisons of social inequalities in health outcomes and behaviors are challenging. Due to the level of disaggregation often required, data can be sparse and methods to make adequately powered comparisons are lacking. We aimed to illustrate the value of a hierarchical Bayesian approach that partially pools country-level estimates, reducing the influence of sampling variation and increasing the stability of estimates. We also illustrate a new way of simultaneously displaying the uncertainty of both relative and absolute inequality estimates. METHODS: We used the 2014 European Social Survey to estimate smoking prevalence, absolute, and relative inequalities for men and women with and without disabilities in 21 European countries. We simultaneously display smoking prevalence for people without disabilities (x-axis), absolute (y-axis), and relative inequalities (contour lines), capturing the uncertainty of these estimates by plotting a 2-D normal approximation of the posterior distribution from the full probability (Bayesian) analysis. RESULTS: Our study confirms that across Europe smoking prevalence is generally higher for people with disabilities than for those without. Our model shifts more extreme prevalence estimates that are based on fewer observations, toward the European mean. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the utility of partial pooling to make adequately powered estimates of inequality, allowing estimates from countries with smaller sample sizes to benefit from the increased precision of the European average. Including uncertainty on our inequality plot provides a useful tool for evaluating both the geographical patterns of variation in, and strength of evidence for, differences in social inequalities in health.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to a traditional Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower mortality and cardiovascular disease risk. The relative importance of diet compared to other lifestyle factors and effects of dietary patterns over time remains unknown. METHODS: We used the parametric G-formula to account for time-dependent confounding, in order to assess the relative importance of diet compared to other lifestyle factors and effects of dietary patterns over time. We included healthy Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study participants attending a visit during 1995-1999. Questionnaires assessed diet and physical activity at each of three study waves. Deaths were identified by linkage to national registries. We estimated mortality risk over approximately 14 years (1995-2011). RESULTS: Of 22,213 participants, 2163 (9.7%) died during 13.6 years median follow-up. Sustained high physical activity and adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet resulted in an estimated reduction in all-cause mortality of 1.82 per 100 people (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.03, 3.6). The population attributable fraction was 13% (95% CI: 4, 23%) for sustained high physical activity, 7% (95% CI: - 3, 17%) for sustained adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet and 18% (95% CI: 0, 36%) for their combination. CONCLUSIONS: A small reduction in mortality may be achieved by sustained elevated physical activity levels in healthy middle-aged adults, but there may be comparatively little gain from increasing adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet.

BackgroundIt is unclear whether early life food sensitization (as opposed to aeroallergen sensitization) is associated with subsequent poor lung function.ObjectivesWe investigated the associations between food sensitization in the first 2 years of life and lung function at 12 to 18 years and whether these observed associations are mediated through aeroallergen sensitization or asthma.MethodsWe used data from a high-risk cohort (Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study [MACS]) and a population-based “Influence of life-style–related factors on the development of the Immune System and Allergies in East and West Germany plus the influence of traffic emissions and genetics” (LISAplus) cohort. Food sensitization was assessed at 6, 12, and 24 months in MACS and 24 months in LISAplus. Lung function was evaluated by spirometry at 12 and 18 years in MACS and 15 years in LISAplus. Linear regression models were used to estimate the association with sensitization (food and/or aeroallergen) while adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsSensitization to food without aeroallergen at 6 months was associated with reduced forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) at both 12 years (−153 mL; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −256 mL, −51 mL) and 18 years (−206 mL; 95% CI = −347 mL, −65 mL) in MACS. Similar results were observed for sensitization measured at 12 months but not at 24 months. Early-life asthma (but not aeroallergen sensitization) partially mediated these associations. Both cohorts showed that only aeroallergen sensitization at 24 months but not food sensitization was associated with lower adolescent lung function.ConclusionsThis study showed that food sensitization at 6 and 12 months was associated with reduced FEV1 in adolescence. Our finding that this link is not completely mediated by either subsequent asthma or aeroallergen sensitization is novel and suggests that early food sensitization itself can be used to identify high-ri

Background: Lifetime lung function is related to quality of life and longevity. Over the lifespan, individuals follow different lung function trajectories. Identification of these trajectories, their determinants, and outcomes is important, but no study has done this beyond the fourth decade. Method(s): We used six waves of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) to model lung function trajectories measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years. We analysed pre-bronchodilator FEV1 z-scores at the six timepoints using group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinct subgroups of individuals whose measurements followed a similar pattern over time. We related the trajectories identified to childhood factors and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using logistic regression, and estimated population-attributable fractions of COPD. Finding(s): Of the 8583 participants in the original cohort, 2438 had at least two waves of lung function data at age 7 years and 53 years and comprised the study population. We identified six trajectories: early below average, accelerated decline (97 [4%] participants); persistently low (136 [6%] participants); early low, accelerated growth, normal decline (196 [8%] participants); persistently high (293 [12%] participants); below average (772 [32%] participants); and average (944 [39%] participants). The three trajectories early below average, accelerated decline; persistently low; and below average had increased risk of COPD at age 53 years compared with the average group (early below average, accelerated decline: odds ratio 35.0, 95% CI 19.5-64.0; persistently low: 9.5, 4.5-20.6; and below average: 3.7, 1.9-6.9). Early-life predictors of the three trajectories included childhood asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis, eczema, parental asthma, and maternal smoking. Personal smoking and active adult asthma increased the impact of maternal smoking and childhood asthma, respectively, on the early below average

BACKGROUND: Lifetime lung function is related to quality of life and longevity. Over the lifespan, individuals follow different lung function trajectories. Identification of these trajectories, their determinants, and outcomes is important, but no study has done this beyond the fourth decade. METHODS: We used six waves of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) to model lung function trajectories measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years. We analysed pre-bronchodilator FEV1 z-scores at the six timepoints using group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinct subgroups of individuals whose measurements followed a similar pattern over time. We related the trajectories identified to childhood factors and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using logistic regression, and estimated population-attributable fractions of COPD. FINDINGS: Of the 8583 participants in the original cohort, 2438 had at least two waves of lung function data at age 7 years and 53 years and comprised the study population. We identified six trajectories: early below average, accelerated decline (97 [4%] participants); persistently low (136 [6%] participants); early low, accelerated growth, normal decline (196 [8%] participants); persistently high (293 [12%] participants); below average (772 [32%] participants); and average (944 [39%] participants). The three trajectories early below average, accelerated decline; persistently low; and below average had increased risk of COPD at age 53 years compared with the average group (early below average, accelerated decline: odds ratio 35·0, 95% CI 19·5-64·0; persistently low: 9·5, 4·5-20·6; and below average: 3·7, 1·9-6·9). Early-life predictors of the three trajectories included childhood asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis, eczema, parental asthma, and maternal smoking. Personal smoking and active adult asthma increased the impact of maternal smoking and childhood asthma, respectively, on the early below average, ac

BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic inequalities in mortality may be reducible by addressing socioeconomic factors and smoking. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate trends over multiple decades in (1) mediation of racial/ethnic inequalities in mortality (between Māori and Europeans in New Zealand) by socioeconomic factors, (2) additional mediation through smoking, and (3) inequalities had there never been smoking. METHODS: We estimated natural (1 and 2 above) and controlled mediation effects (3 above) in census-mortality cohorts for 1981-1984 (1.1 million people), 1996-1999 (1.5 million), and 2006-2011 (1.5 million) for 25- to 74-year-olds in New Zealand, using a weighting of regression predicted outcomes. RESULTS: Socioeconomic factors explained 46% of male inequalities in all three cohorts and made an increasing contribution over time among females from 30.4% (95% confidence interval = 18.1%, 42.7%) in 1981-1984 to 41.9% (36.0%, 48.0%). Including smoking with socioeconomic factors only modestly altered the percentage mediated for males, but more substantially increased it for females, for example, 7.7% (5.5%, 10.0%) in 2006-2011. A counterfactual scenario of having eradicated tobacco in the past (but unchanged socioeconomic distribution) lowered mortality for all sex-by-ethnic groups and resulted in a 12.2% (2.9%, 20.8%) and 21.2% (11.6%, 31.0%) reduction in the absolute mortality gap between Māori and Europeans in 2006-2011, for males and females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study predicts that, in this high-income country, reducing socioeconomic disparities between ethnic groups would greatly reduce ethnic inequalities in mortality over the long run. Eradicating tobacco would notably reduce ethnic inequalities in absolute but not relative mortality.