Search

In this paper, optimal control problem is applied to Human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) and Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) coinfection model formulated by a system of ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategy was employed to study the effect of combining different intervention strategy on the transmission dynamics of HIV-HSV-II coinfection diseases. The necessary conditions for the existence of the optimal controls were established using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Optimal control system was performed with help of Runge-Kutta forward-backward sweep numerical approximation method. Finally, numerical simulation illustrated that a combination of all controls is the most effective strategy to minimize the disease from the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic transition theory states that fertility declines in response to development, thus wealth and fertility are negatively correlated. Evolutionary theory, however, suggests a positive relationship between wealth and fertility. Fertility transition as a result of industrialization and economic development started in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in Western Europe; and it extended to some of the Asian and Latin American countries later on. However, economic crises since the 1980s have been co-incident with fertility decline in sub-Sahara Africa and other developing countries like Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh in the last decade of the 20th century. A very low level of fertility is observed in Addis Ababa (TFR=1.9) where contraceptive prevalence rate is modest and recurrent famine as well as drought have been major causes of economic crisis in the country for more than three consecutive decades, which is surprising given the high rural fertility. Detailed socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of 2976 women of reproductive age (i.e. 15-49 years) residing in Addis Ababa were collected during the first quarter of 2003 using an event history calendar and individual women questionnaire. Controlling for the confounding effects of maternal birth cohort, education, marital status and accessible income level, the poor (those who have access to less than a dollar per day or 250 birr a month) were observed to elongate the timing of having first and second births, while relatively better-off women were found to have shorter birth intervals. Results were also the same among the ever-married women only model. More than 50% of women currently in their 20s are also predicted to fail to reproduce as most of the unmarried men and women are 'retreating from marriage' due to economic stress. Qualitative information collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews also supports the statistical findings that poverty is at the root of this collapse in fertility. Whilst across countries wealth and fertility have been negatively correlated, this study shows that within one uniform population the relationship is clearly positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contraceptive side effects are consistently given as the main reason why women are dissatisfied with contraception or choose not to use it. However, why some women suffer more from side effects remains unknown. Through inductive analysis of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with 40 contraceptive users and 3 key informants in Central Oromia, Ethiopia, we explored women's rationales for variation in side-effect experiences. The data first reveal the wide diversity in type and severity of side-effect experiences reported by users of contraception. Second, we found that women's rationales for why some individuals suffer more side effects from contraception invoke economic and physical hardship (food insecurity and heavy workloads), as well as interindividual differences in biology (one's blood must 'fit' with contraception). Finally, the analysis revealed the tension many women face in trying to negotiate the trade-off between the consequences of these side effects and those of an unwanted pregnancy. The results show the value of using a biosocial approach, which centres women's voices and experiences, for informing the measurement of contraceptive side effects within population health surveys and clinical trials. Additionally, the findings help gain an understanding of how an individual's social, biological, and cultural contexts drive variation in when and why different side effects manifest.

Female genital mutilation or cutting (FGMC) has profound consequences for an estimated 200 million women world-wide, yet affected communities often resist efforts to end the practice. Marriage market dynamics have been proposed as key to this resistance, because where FGMC is normative, parents are motivated to cut their daughters to improve their marriage prospects. Some economists have also argued that financial gain, through bride wealth payments, incentivises parents to cut daughter's at time of marriage. Bride wealth, however, does not necessarily equal net economic return, confounding efforts to test this assumption. Here we use detailed data on the financial value of all exchanges at marriage from Ethiopian Arsi Oromo agropastoralists to assess their association with FGMC. We also explore the idea that parents must replace FGMC with other forms of investment (e.g., education) when cutting practices are rejected. Multivariate multilevel Bayesian models were run using data from the first marriages of 358 women to assess the association between FGMC status and education and marriage-related outcomes: bride wealth payments, dowry costs, and age at marriage. Being cut is associated with lower dowry costs and earlier age at marriage but does not predict bride wealth paid by the groom's family. School attendance is associated with higher bride wealth, particularly for women with four or more years of education, and with later age at marriage. These findings indicate that bride wealth payments do not maintain FGMC among the Arsi Oromo. While we find a relative economic loss for parents from FGMC abandonment through higher value dowry gifts, this may be traded-off against the health benefits to uncut daughters. These findings point to the emergence of new norms, whereby Arsi Oromo parents reject cutting for their daughters and prefer their daughters-in-law to be educated., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

In the context of continuous cultural, social, and economic changes happening around the globe, the predictable patterns of the life course of the past observed over successive birth cohorts will not remain stable across generations. In this study, three reproductive role indicators-first sexual encounter, first marriage, and first birth-for three synthetic birth cohorts were used to identify and characterize the reproductive trajectories of youths. In our analysis, for the sake of comparison with global literature, we considered youths to be between ages 15 and 24. The analysis was conducted using data extracted from the 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey for Oromia National Regional State. Three synthetic birth cohorts of youths of birth years between 1975 and 1989 were constructed for the analysis. A sequence analysis based on dynamic hamming distance with partition around medoids technique was employed to extract the typologies of reproductive trajectories of youths. In addition, discrepancy analysis and a sequence regression tree analysis were employed to characterize the identified typologies of trajectories. Data management was done using STATA 14 and all analyses were carried out using R software. The study identified four different typologies of reproductive trajectories among the youth. The sex of respondents was the primary discriminating factor of the typologies of reproductive trajectories. The findings support the notion of changing norms in reproductive behavior among the less educated youth irrespective of sex. The discriminating power of education was stronger for female youth in urban areas than rural females. It implies that the postponement of reproductive role assumption was stronger among educated female youths residing in urban than their rural counterparts. Normative reproductive practices such as early marriage and adolescent fertility are still common practices that require efforts of communities and local government bodies to ameliorate these practices. Results of the study indicate that less educated youth should be targeted in programs that aim at improving youth empowerment (i.e., training and employment opportunities) as well as their sexual and reproductive health., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Dejene, Gurmu. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Understanding how and why physical intimate partner violence (IPV) persists in high-risk communities has proven difficult. As IPV is both sensitive and illegal, people may be inclined to misreport their views and experiences. By embedding a list randomization experiment (LRE), which increases respondent privacy, in a survey of 809 adult Arsi Oromo men and women in rural south-central Ethiopia, we test the reliability of direct questioning survey methods (e.g., used in the Demographic and Health Surveys) for measuring attitudes that underpin the acceptability of IPV. Participants were randomly assigned versions of the survey in which they were asked either directly or indirectly about the acceptability of wife-beating. By comparing responses across these surveys, we identify the extent to which views are being misreported using direct questioning methods, as well as identifying the "true" predictors of continued support for wife-beating. Indirect questioning reveals that almost one third of the sample believe that wife-beating is acceptable. Adults (particularly men) who are less educated (<3 years schooling) or living in households where women do not participate in economic decision making are among those most likely to identify wife-beating as justifiable (>50% endorsement). These individuals, however, are also more inclined to hide their approval when asked directly by an interviewer. That we find high but underreported support for wife-beating among some members of the community demonstrates a clear need to encourage a more open dialogue, to prevent violence toward women remaining undetected and thus unchanged. This finding also raises questions about the accuracy of traditional direct questioning for capturing information on IPV attitudes and norms. Of relevance to policy, we find that wife-beating is entirely absent only among adults with higher levels of education, living in households where decision making is shared between couples.

This paper investigates the importance of women's physiological condition, alongside sociocultural factors, for predicting the risk of discontinuation of the injectable contraceptive due to side effects in Ethiopia. Contraceptive calendar data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed. Women aged 15-49 who had initiated the injectable contraceptive in the last two years were included in the analysis (n = 1,513). Physiological factors investigated were body mass, iron status, reproductive depletion, and physical strain. After checking for reverse causality, associations between physiological and sociocultural risk factors and discontinuation due to side effects (DSE) or discontinuation due to other reasons (DOR) were estimated using multivariate Cox proportional regression analyses. Anemia status was associated with DSE, but not DOR. Anemic women were two times more at risk of DSE compared with nonanemic women (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] = 2.38, confidence interval [CI] = 1.41-4.00). DOR was predicted by religion, wealth, and relationship status. Accounting for diversity in physiological condition is key for understanding contraceptive discontinuation due to side effects. To reduce side effects, family planning programs might benefit from providing hormonal contraception within an integrated package addressing anemia., (© 2022 The Authors. Studies in Family Planning published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Population Council.)

Background: Long acting reversible and permanent contraception (LARPs) offer promising opportunities for addressing the high and growing unmet need for modern contraception and helps to reduce unintended pregnancies and abortion rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study examines the contextual factors that influence the use of long acting reversible and permanent contraception among married and fecund women in Ethiopia., Method: We use data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey to examine the contextual factors that influence choice of long acting reversible and permanent contraception among married, non-pregnant and fecund women. The DHS collects detailed information on individual and household characteristics, contraception, and related reproductive behaviors from women of reproductive age. In addition, we created cluster level variables by aggregating individual level data to the cluster level. Analysis was done using a two-level multilevel logistic regression with data from 6994 married (weighted = 7352) women residing in 642 clusters (communities)., Results: In 2016, 12% of married, non-pregnant and 'fecund' women were using long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception in Ethiopia. A higher proportion of women with secondary and above education (17.6%), urban residents (19.7%), in the richest wealth quintile (18.3%) and in paid employment (18.3%) were using LARP methods compared to their counterparts. Regression analysis showed that community level variables such as women's empowerment, access to family planning information and services, region of residence and knowledge of methods were significantly associated with use of LARP methods. Age, wealth status, employment status and women's fertility preferences were among the individual and household level variables associated with choice of LARP methods. With regards to age, the odds of using LARP methods was significantly lower among adolescents (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85) and women over the age of 40 (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.44-0.90) compared to women in their 20's., Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that the demand for long-acting reversible and permanent contraception is influenced not only by women's individual and household characteristics but also by the community's level of women's empowerment, socio-economic development, as well as access and exposure to family planning information and services. Thus, improving knowledge of long-acting reversible and permanent methods, improving women's decision making autonomy and upgrading the capacity and skills of health workers particularly the midlevel providers and community health extension workers on the provision of LARP methods and rights-based approach is important to improve the uptake of LARP methods., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Female genital cutting (FGC) has major implications for women's physical, sexual and psychological health, and eliminating the practice is a key target for public health policy-makers. To date one of the main barriers to achieving this has been an inability to infer privately-held views on FGC within communities where it is prevalent. As a sensitive (and often illegal) topic, people are anticipated to hide their true support for the practice when questioned directly. Here we use an indirect questioning method (unmatched count technique) to identify hidden support for FGC in a rural South Central Ethiopian community where the practice is common, but thought to be in decline. Employing a socio-demographic household survey of 1620 Arsi Oromo adults, which incorporated both direct and indirect direct response (unmatched count) techniques we compare directly-stated versus privately-held views in support of FGC, and individual variation in responses by age, gender and education and target female (daughters versus daughters-in-law). Both genders express low support for FGC when questioned directly, while indirect methods reveal substantially higher acceptance (of cutting both daughters and daughters-in-law). Educated adults (those who have attended school) are privately more supportive of the practice than they are prepared to admit openly to an interviewer, indicating that education may heighten secrecy rather than decrease support for FGC. Older individuals hold the strongest views in favour of FGC (particularly educated older males), but they are also more inclined to conceal their support for FGC when questioned directly. As these elders represent the most influential members of society, their hidden support for FGC may constitute a pivotal barrier to eliminating the practice in this community. Our results demonstrate the great potential for indirect questioning methods to advance knowledge and inform policy on culturally-sensitive topics like FGC; providing more reliable data and improving understanding of the "true" drivers of FGC.

Background: Contraceptive discontinuation is a major barrier to reducing global unmet needs for family planning, but the reasons why women discontinue contraception are poorly understood. Here we use data from Ethiopia to investigate (i) the magnitude of contraceptive discontinuation in 2005-2011, (ii) how the risk of discontinuation varies with method type and education level and (iii) the barriers to continuation. Our main hypothesis is that contraceptive discontinuation is driven by the experience of physiological side-effects associated with the use of hormonal contraception, rather than a lack of formal education., Methods: We used a mixed methods explanatory sequential design to explain the quantitative results in more details through the qualitative data. First, we analysed quantitative data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey to study patterns of contraceptive discontinuation and method choice using multilevel multiprocess models. Second, we conducted semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions in the 3 most populated regions of Ethiopia with individuals of reproductive age and health professionals., Results: The analysis of EDHS data shows that the rate of discontinuation has not reduced in the period 2005-2011 and remains high. Discontinuation mainly takes the form of abandonment, and is a function of method type, age and wealth but not of educational level. Interviews with women and health professionals reveal that the experience of debilitating physiological side effects, the need for secrecy and poverty are important barriers to continuation., Conclusions: Our findings together suggest that physiological and social side-effects of contraceptive use, not a lack of formal education, are the root causes of contraceptive abandonment in Ethiopia.

Background: Wife beating is the most common and widespread form of intimate partner violence in Ethiopia. It results in countless severe health, socio-economic and psychological problems and has contributed to the violation of human rights including the liberty of women to enjoy conjugal life. The main purpose of this study is to assess the levels and patterns of wife beating refusal and its associated socio-cultural and demographic factors in rural and urban Ethiopia., Methods: The 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data based on 11,097 and 5287 women in the reproductive age group (i.e. 15-49 years) living in rural and urban areas, respectively,were used in this study. Cronbach's alpha was used to assess the internal consistency of the measure of women's attitudes towards wife beating. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences was applied to analyze the data. A binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify variables that significantly predict respondents' refusal of wife beating. Separate analysis by a place of residence was undertaken as attitude towards wife beating vary between rural and urban areas., Results: The likelihood of refusing wife beating in Ethiopia was significantly higher among urban women (54.2%) than rural women (24.5%). Although there was a significant variations in attitude towards refusing wife beating among different regions in Ethiopia, increasing educational level, high access to media, age of respondents were associated with high level of refusal of wife beating. In contrast, rural residence, being in marital union, high number of living children, being followers of some religions (Muslim followers in urban and Protestants in rural) were associated with low level of refusal of wife beating., Conclusion: The findings of this study reveal that wife beating in Ethiopia is a function of demographic and socio-cultural factors among which age and educational attainment of respondents, number of living children, religious affiliation, marital commitment and region of residence play significant roles. As factors governing perceptions and behaviours of individuals and institutional settings appear to shape knowledge and attitude towards gender equity and equality, awareness creation and behavioural change initiatives should be considered to abolish violence against women.

HIV/AIDS stigma is one of the major public health challenges in Ethiopia. This study examined knowledge about HIV/AIDS and factors behind stigmatisation towards people living with the virus based on demographic and health survey data collected in 2011 from women in the age group 15-49 years. The result shows that 49.3% of rural women had adequate knowledge about HIV/AIDS compared with 74.7% of urban women. About three-fourths (72.1%) of the rural women had stigmatising attitudes towards PLWHA whilst the proportion in urban areas was only about a third (34.2%). The likelihood of having adequate knowledge about HIV/AIDS was significantly higher among educated women but lower among those living in Afar, Somali, and Gambella regions and Dire Dawa City. Women with higher levels of education and frequent access to media had a lower tendency to stigmatise people living with the virus. Adequate knowledge about HIV/AIDS was also significantly associated with lower likelihood of stigmatisation. The results generally indicate that HIV/AIDS stigma in Ethiopia is partly explained by people's knowledge about HIV/AIDS and by socio-cultural factors that shape their perception of the epidemic. Awareness-raising efforts should thus consider the socio-cultural contexts in which stigma occurs to tackle discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS.

Objectives: What triggers initial shifts to fertility limitation as populations undergo socioeconomic development remains poorly understood. Alternative models emphasize the social contagion of low fertility ideals, or the individual perception of economic and/or fitness benefits to fertility limitation. Few micro-level studies in communities experiencing the earliest stages of the demographic transition are available. In a previous study, we found little support for the role of social transmission through friendships and spatial networks in explaining contraceptive uptake in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is low (<20%). Here, using data from the same population, we investigate the possibility that early contraceptive uptake is best understood as a manipulation of parental investment in response to local environmental change., Methods: We used data on >800 women which recorded fertility, birth spacing and offspring survivorship. We first investigated whether ever-users and non-users differ in their reproductive behavior and success prior to contraception use. We then conducted a within-women analysis to investigate the impact of contraceptive uptake on reproduction and child survivorship., Results: Women who have experienced higher fertility and higher child survival adopt modern contraception sooner rather than later, and contraceptive use among early adopters is predictive of greater birth spacing. However, contraceptive uptake does not have an impact on offspring survivorship., Conclusions: Our data provide support for the idea that preferences for low fertility emerge in response to increasing competition between offspring. The study has implications for our understanding of the emergence of local fertility norms and the spread of modern birth control., (Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Adolescent childbearing has undesirable consequences. Dropping out of school, high rates of abortion, maternal mortality and morbidity are noted consequences of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing. The objective of this study, which is based on the 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data, is to analyze the levels, trends and differentials of adolescent motherhood in Ethiopia. A multilevel logistic regression was fitted to analyze the determinants of adolescent childbearing. Adolescent motherhood in Ethiopia has shown a generally declining trend over time. The decline was more marked in the periods following the adoption of the national population policy in the country. Further, it was lower in urban areas and among women who have secondary and above level of education, but higher among women not working and those engaged in agricultural activities. Housewives and women working in the agricultural sector should be given attention to reduce the risks and consequences of adolescent motherhood.

Rural development initiatives across the developing world are designed to improve community well-being and livelihoods. However they may also have unforeseen consequences, in some cases placing further demands on stretched public services. In this paper we use data from a longitudinal study of five Ethiopian villages to investigate the impact of a recent rural development initiative, installing village-level water taps, on rural to urban migration of young adults. Our previous research has identified that tap stands dramatically reduced child mortality, but were also associated with increased fertility. We demonstrate that the installation of taps is associated with increased rural-urban migration of young adults (15-30 years) over a 15 year period (15.5% migrate out, n = 1912 from 1280 rural households). Young adults with access to this rural development intervention had three times the relative risk of migrating to urban centres compared to those without the development. We also identify that family dynamics, specifically sibling competition for limited household resources (e.g. food, heritable land and marriage opportunities), are key to understanding the timing of out-migration. Birth of a younger sibling doubled the odds of out-migration and starting married life reduced it. Rural out-migration appears to be a response to increasing rural resource scarcity, principally competition for agricultural land. Strategies for livelihood diversification include education and off-farm casual wage-labour. However, jobs and services are limited in urban centres, few migrants send large cash remittances back to their families, and most return to their villages within one year without advanced qualifications. One benefit for returning migrants may be through enhanced social prestige and mate-acquisition on return to rural areas. These findings have wide implications for current understanding of the processes which initiate rural-to-urban migration and transitions to low fertility, as well as for the design and implementation of development intervention across the rural and urban developing world.

Intergenerational transfer of wealth has been proposed as playing a pivotal role in the evolution of human sibling relationships. Sibling rivalry is assumed to be more marked when offspring compete for limited heritable resources, which are crucial for reproductive success (e.g., land and livestock); whereas in the absence of heritable wealth, related siblings may cooperate. To date, comparative studies undertaken to support this evolutionary assumption have been confounded by other socioecological factors, which vary across populations, e.g., food sharing and intergroup conflict. In this article we explore effects of sibling competition and cooperation for agricultural resources, marriage, and reproduction in one contemporary Ethiopian agropastoralist society. Here recent changes in land tenure policy, altering transfers of land from parents to offspring, present a unique framework to test the importance of intergenerational transfers of wealth in driving sibling competition, while controlling for socioeconomic biases. In households where land is inherited, the number of elder brothers reduces a man's agricultural productivity, marriage, and reproductive success, as resources diminish and competition increases with each additional sibling. Where land is not inherited (for males receiving land directly from the government and all females) older siblings do not have a competitive effect and in some instances may be beneficial. This study has wider implications for the evolution of human family sizes. Recent changes in wealth transfers, which have driven sibling competition, may be contributing to an increased desire for smaller family sizes.

Socio-economic development has proven to be insufficient to explain the time and pace of the human demographic transition. Shifts to low fertility norms have thus been thought to result from social diffusion, yet to date, micro-level studies are limited and are often unable to disentangle the effect of social transmission from that of extrinsic factors. We used data which included the first ever use of modern contraception among a population of over 900 women in four villages in rural Ethiopia, where contraceptive prevalence is still low (<20%). We investigated whether the time of adoption of modern contraception is predicted by (i) the proportion of ever-users/non ever-users within both women and their husbands' friendships networks and (ii) the geographic distance to contraceptive ever-users. Using a model comparison approach, we found that individual socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. parity, education) and a religious norm are the most likely explanatory factors of temporal and spatial patterns of contraceptive uptake, while the role of person-to-person contact through either friendship or spatial networks remains marginal. Our study has broad implications for understanding the processes that initiate transitions to low fertility and the uptake of birth control technologies in the developing world.