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The Suhai Lake Basin has held major ecological status as a crucial component of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's ecological security barrier. The Suhai Lake Migratory Bird Nature Reserve's safety and the livelihood of Kazakh citizens are now directly endangered by the frequent switching between land-use types and the decrease of ecosystem service functions caused by climate change and human activity. As a result, this work introduces the idea of land-use transfer flow. Through the application of interval level change and the land-use transfer chain, the process, affecting factors, and current issues of land-use change in the Suhai Lake Basin over the past 40 years are thoroughly investigated. The results showed that the intensity of land-use change was significant, at 0.055%, during the period 1990–2000, whereas the grassland area significantly increased, with a net increase of 23.07 km2, mainly from the conversion of saline-alkali land, swamp, and other unused land in the middle and lower reaches. The key factor influencing the growth of the grassland throughout this time has been the ecological management policy. As a result of the climate's ongoing warming between 2000 and 2018, glacial meltwater and precipitation increased, the middle and lower ranges of the groundwater table rose, and the grassland degradation, swamp shrinkage, and soil salinization in the watershed all worsened. The degradation of grassland will result from both overgrazing and overprotection. Suhai Lake Wetland and Haizi Grassland Wetland are the most readily apparent examples of land-use changes in the Suhai Lake Basin from a spatial perspective. More consideration should be given to the ecological deterioration and land exposure in the glacier retreat zone of the upstream source region. The results can provide important information on the impact of regional development and the environmental governance policies of the changes in land use/cover in the Suhai Lake Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]