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This paper concentrates on the reliability of a discrete-time controlled Markov system with finite states and actions, and aims to give an efficient algorithm for obtaining an optimal (control) policy that makes the system have the maximal reliability for every initial state. After establishing the existence of an optimal policy, for the computation of optimal policies, we introduce the concept of an absorbing set of a stationary policy, and find some characterization and a computational method of the absorbing sets. Using the largest absorbing set, we build a novel optimality equation (OE), and prove the uniqueness of a solution of the OE. Furthermore, we provide a policy iteration algorithm of optimal policies, and prove that an optimal policy and the maximal reliability can be obtained in a finite number of iterations. Finally, an example in reliability and maintenance problems is given to illustrate our results.

This work considers two-player zero-sum semi-Markov games with incomplete information on one side and perfect observation. At the beginning, the system selects a game type according to a given probability distribution and informs to Player 1 only. After each stage, the actions chosen are observed by both players before proceeding to the next stage. Firstly, we show the existence of the value function under the expected discount criterion and the optimality equation. Secondly, the existence and iterative algorithm of the optimal policy for Player 1 are introduced through the optimality equation of value function. Moreove, About the optimal policy for the uninformed Player 2, we define the auxiliary dual games and construct a new optimality equation for the value function in the dual games, which implies the existence of the optimal policy for Player 2 in the dual game. Finally, the existence and iterative algorithm of the optimal policy for Player 2 in the original game is given by the results of the dual game., Comment: 49 pages, 0 figures

In this paper, we consider the optimal stopping problem on semi-Markov processes (SMPs) with finite horizon, and aim to establish the existence and computation of optimal stopping times. To achieve the goal, we first develop the main results of finite horizon semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs) to the case with additional terminal costs, introduce an explicit construction of SMDPs, and prove the equivalence between the optimal stopping problems on SMPs and SMDPs. Then, using the equivalence and the results on SMDPs developed here, we not only show the existence of optimal stopping time of SMPs, but also provide an algorithm for computing optimal stopping time on SMPs. Moreover, we show that the optimal and "-optimal stopping time can be characterized by the hitting time of some special sets, respectively., Comment: 27 pages, 0 figures

Semi-Markov model is one of the most general models for stochastic dynamic systems. This paper deals with a two-person zero-sum game for semi-Markov processes. We focus on the expected discounted payoff criterion with state-action-dependent discount factors. The state and action spaces are both Polish spaces, and the payoff function is $\omega$-bounded. We first construct a fairly general model of semi-Markov games under a given semi-Markov kernel and a pair of strategies. Next, based on the standard regularity condition and the continuity-compactness condition for semi-Markov games, we derive a "drift condition" on the semi-Markov kernel and suppose that the discount factors have a positive lower bound, under which the existence of the value function and a pair of optimal stationary strategies of our semi-Markov game are proved by using the Shapley equation. Moreover, when the state and action spaces are both finite, a value iteration-type algorithm for computing the value function and $\varepsilon$-Nash equilibrium of the game is developed. The convergence of the algorithm is also proved. Finally, we conduct numerical examples to demonstrate our main results.

We study a finite-horizon two-person zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic game for continuous-time Markov chains and Borel state and action spaces, in which payoff rates, transition rates and terminal reward functions are allowed to be unbounded from below and from above and the policies can be history-dependent. Under suitable conditions, we establish the existence of a solution to the corresponding Shapley equation (SE) by an approximation technique. Then, by the SE and the extension of the Dynkin's formula, we prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium and verify that the value of the stochastic game is the unique solution to the SE. Moreover, we develop a value iteration-type algorithm for approaching to the value of the stochastic game. The convergence of the algorithm is proved by a special contraction operator in our risk-sensitive stochastic game. Finally, we demonstrate our main results by two examples.

This paper attempts to study the optimal stopping time for semi-Markov processes (SMPs) under the discount optimization criteria with unbounded cost rates. In our work, we introduce an explicit construction of the equivalent semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs). The equivalence is embodied in the value functions of SMPs and SMDPs, that is, every stopping time of SMPs can induce a policy of SMDPs such that the value functions are equal, and vice versa. The existence of the optimal stopping time of SMPs is proved by this equivalence relation. Next, we give the optimality equation of the value function and develop an effective iterative algorithm for computing it. Moreover, we show that the optimal and {\epsilon}-optimal stopping time can be characterized by the hitting time of the special sets. Finally, to illustrate the validity of our results, an example of a maintenance system is presented in the end., Comment: 24 pages, 0 figure

For a Markov decision process with countably infinite states, the optimal value may not be achievable in the set of stationary policies. In this paper, we study the existence conditions of an optimal stationary policy in a countable-state Markov decision process under the long-run average criterion. With a properly defined metric on the policy space of ergodic MDPs, the existence of an optimal stationary policy can be guaranteed by the compactness of the space and the continuity of the long-run average cost with respect to the metric. We further extend this condition by some assumptions which can be easily verified in control problems of specific systems, such as queueing systems. Our results make a complementary contribution to the literature in the sense that our method is capable to handle the cost function unbounded from both below and above, only at the condition of continuity and ergodicity. Several examples are provided to illustrate the application of our main results., Comment: 25 pages

This paper studies the f-ergodicity and its exponential convergence rate for continuous-time Markov chain. Assume f is square integrable, for reversible Markov chain, it is proved that the exponential convergence of f-ergodicity holds if and only if the spectral gap of the generator is positive. Moreover, the convergence rate is equal to the spectral gap. For irreversible case, the positivity of spectral gap remains a sufficient condition of f-ergodicity. The effectiveness of these results are illustrated by some typical examples., Comment: 11 pages

The present paper considers the constrained optimal control problem with total undiscounted criteria for a continuous-time Markov decision process (CTMDP) in Borel state and action spaces. Under the standard compactness and continuity conditions, we show the existence of an optimal stationary policy out of the class of general nonstationary ones. In the process, we justify the reduction of the CTMDP model to a discrete-time Markov decision process (DTMDP) model based on the studies of the undiscounted occupancy and occupation measures. We allow that the controlled process is not necessarily absorbing, and the transition rates are not necessarily separated from zero, and can be arbitrarily unbounded; these features count for the main technical difficulties in studying undiscounted CTMDP models.

This paper is devoted to studying constrained continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs) in the class of randomized policies depending on state histories. The transition rates may be unbounded, the reward and costs are admitted to be unbounded from above and from below, and the state and action spaces are Polish spaces. The optimality criterion to be maximized is the expected discounted rewards, and the constraints can be imposed on the expected discounted costs. First, we give conditions for the nonexplosion of underlying processes and the finiteness of the expected discounted rewards/costs. Second, using a technique of occupation measures, we prove that the constrained optimality of continuous-time MDPs can be transformed to an equivalent (optimality) problem over a class of probability measures. Based on the equivalent problem and a so-called $\bar{w}$-weak convergence of probability measures developed in this paper, we show the existence of a constrained optimal policy. Third, by providing a linear programming formulation of the equivalent problem, we show the solvability of constrained optimal policies. Finally, we use two computable examples to illustrate our main results., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP749 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

This paper is about the existence and regularity of the transition probability matrix of a nonhomogeneous continuous-time Markov process with a countable state space. A standard approach to prove the existence of such a transition matrix is to begin with a continuous (in t) and conservative matrix Q(t)=[q_{ij}(t)] of nonhomogeneous transition rates q_{ij}(t), and use it to construct the transition probability matrix. Here we obtain the same result except that the q_{ij}(t) are only required to satisfy a mild measurability condition, and Q(t) may not be conservative. Moreover, the resulting transition matrix is shown to be the minimum transition matrix and, in addition, a necessary and sufficient condition for it to be regular is obtained. These results are crucial in some applications of nonhomogeneous continuous-time Markov processes, such as stochastic optimal control problems and stochastic games, which motivated this work in the first place., Comment: 22 pages

This paper is devoted to studying the average optimality in continuous-time Markov decision processes with fairly general state and action spaces. The criterion to be maximized is expected average rewards. The transition rates of underlying continuous-time jump Markov processes are allowed to be unbounded, and the reward rates may have neither upper nor lower bounds. We first provide two optimality inequalities with opposed directions, and also give suitable conditions under which the existence of solutions to the two optimality inequalities is ensured. Then, from the two optimality inequalities we prove the existence of optimal (deterministic) stationary policies by using the Dynkin formula. Moreover, we present a ``semimartingale characterization'' of an optimal stationary policy. Finally, we use a generalized Potlach process with control to illustrate the difference between our conditions and those in the previous literature, and then further apply our results to average optimal control problems of generalized birth--death systems, upwardly skip-free processes and two queueing systems. The approach developed in this paper is slightly different from the ``optimality inequality approach'' widely used in the previous literature., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000105 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)