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Conceptualizing the climate change perspective of crop growth and evapotranspiration (ETc) rates and subsequent irrigation water requirements (IWR) is necessary for sustaining the agriculture sector and tackling food security issues in Pakistan. This article projects the future growth periods and water demands for the wheat-rice system of Punjab. Intense and hotter transitions in the future thermal regimes and erratic monsoon rainfall increments were envisaged. The crop growth rates were accelerated by the probable temperature rise resulting in shortened growth periods. The temperature rise increased the reference evapotranspiration rates; however, the future ETc declined due to reduced growth period and net radiation. Highly unpredictable, but mostly increasing, cumulative seasonal and annual rainfalls were indicative of more effective rainfalls during the future crop seasons. Reduced ETc and increments in seasonal effective rainfalls gave rise to the declining IWR for both crops. The study findings seemingly undermined the harmful climate change influences on the water requirements of the wheat-rice system of Punjab but alarmingly shortening of growth periods indicates a higher crop failure tendency under the projected future thermal regime. HIGHLIGHTS The crop water demands were projected after considering the probable changes in the future growing season lengths.; A projected decline in future net radiation counteracted the warming-driven increments in crop evapotranspiration rates and irrigation water requirements.; The early maturing future crops yielded an overall decline/incline in seasonal/daily water demands making the crops more irrigation-dependent and temperature-sensitive.; Compared to the rice, the wheat was more vulnerable to future climate change threats.; A new outlook was provided for developing the optimized irrigation schedules to mitigate the climate stresses on the future crop water demands.;

Study region: Agricultural reservoirs are the principal source of irrigation supplies for sustaining rice production and play a critical role in the water resource management of South Korea. Study focus: We comprehensively evaluated the performance of 400 major agricultural reservoirs, spread throughout the country, as a function of climate change during 1973–2017 considering the constituents of reservoir water balance, such as watershed runoff, irrigation water demand, and evaporation loss. New hydrological insights: Based on the trend analysis during the 45-year study period, the reservoir inflows remained higher than the irrigation water demands because of the gradually increasing annual rainfall. Most reservoirs had enough storage capacities; their resilience gradually declined particularly during the last 15 years. The northern and northeastern region reservoirs had acceptable resilience whereas the reservoirs in the western and southwestern inland and coastal regions showed insufficient resilience. Reservoirs received sufficient inflows but the residence time of the excess inflow has to be increased to suffice the peak irrigation demands in the coming cropping season. Study outcomes could help prioritize the reservoirs requiring immediate rehabilitation located in the central and southwest regions with high failure risks. Results suggested that a reservoir with a watershed-irrigated area ratio > 5 would have a better chance of coping with future climate change threats.

Technological development and climate change dictate farming practices, which can directly affect irrigation water requirement and supply. In this article, the water supply reliability (WSR) of 62 major Korean agricultural reservoirs was comprehensively evaluated for varying climate and farming practices. Field surveys identified the recent divergence from standard rice farming practices and a 45-year daily weather data set (1973–2017) was examined to understand the phenomenon of climate change. Effective rainfall increments mitigated the imminent surges in rice irrigation water requirements driven by warming-led accelerated crop evapotranspiration rates; therefore, climate change marginally influenced the WSR of selected reservoirs. The transplanting period and associated water consumption were the primary deviations from standard rice farming practices. A significantly prolonged transplanting period seriously compromised the WSR of agricultural reservoirs and the maximum number of unsafe reservoirs was detected for a 24-day increase in the transplanting period. A watershed/irrigated area ratio of less than 2.5 was the lower threshold below which all the reservoirs had unsafe WSR regardless of the climate change and/or farming practices. Recent variations in farming practices were the primary cause of reservoir failure in maintaining the WSR.

This article analyzed the wheat yield variabilities and water footprints under projected future climate based on wheat yield sensitivity to past (1980−2017) trends of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), solar radiation (Rn) and rainfall (P) for the semi-arid condition of Punjab, Pakistan. The past and projected future trends of the climate variables were identical featuring prominent Tmin rise than Tmax accompanied by Rn and P declines. Based on the past influences and the projected future trends of the climate variables, Tmin was the principal driver of wheat yield decline followed by the Tmax, P and Rn. Wheat evapotranspiration and net irrigation water requirement declined due to the influence of both decrease of growing season length and Rn for the first half of 21st-century, and this trend reversed during the second half of 21st-century. These phenomena were caused by different degree of climate warming between the two-time slices. Due to future wheat yield decline and a gradual rise in green water scarcity the blue and grey water footprints rise consistently particularly during 2nd-time slices. CO2 enrichment showed limited mitigation potential of nullifying the warming-induced threats on future wheat yield and water footprints.

Background An angiography‐based supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm was developed to classify lesions as having fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 versus >0.80. Methods and Results With a 4:1 ratio, 1501 patients with 1501 intermediate lesions were randomized into training versus test sets. Between the ostium and 10 mm distal to the target lesion, a series of angiographic lumen diameter measurements along the centerline was plotted. The 24 computed angiographic features based on the diameter plot and 4 clinical features (age, sex, body surface area, and involve segment) were used for ML by XGBoost. The model was independently trained and tested by 2000 bootstrap iterations. External validation with 79 patients was conducted. Including all 28 features, the ML model with 5‐fold cross‐validation in the 1204 training samples predicted fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 with overall diagnostic accuracy of 78±4% (averaged area under the curve: 0.84±0.03). The 12 high‐ranking features selected by scatter search were involved segment; body surface area; distal lumen diameter; minimal lumen diameter; length of a lumen diameter 70%. Using those 12 features, the ML predicted fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 in the test set with sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 80%, and overall accuracy of 82% (area under the curve: 0.87). The averaged diagnostic accuracy in bootstrap replicates was 81±1% (averaged area under the curve: 0.87±0.01). External validation showed accuracy of 85% (area under the curve: 0.87). Conclusions Angiography‐based ML showed good diagnostic performance in identifying ischemia‐producing lesions and reduced the need for pressure wires.