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18. AMMA-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT

Author

Hourdin, Frédéric, Musat, Ionela, Guichard, Françoise, Ruti, Paolo Michele, Favot, Florence, Filiberti, Marie-Angèle, Pham, Maï, Grandpeix, Jean-Yves, Polcher, Jan, Marquet, Pascal, Boone, Aaron, Lafore, Jean-Philippe, Redelsperger, Jean-Luc, Dell’aquila, Alessandro, Doval, Teresa Losada, Traore, Abdoul Khadre, and Gallée, Hubert

Published
2010

20. THE AMMA LAND SURFACE MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT (ALMIP)

Author

Boone, Aaron, de Rosnay, Patricia, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Beljaars, Anton, Chopin, Franck, Decharme, Bertrand, Delire, Christine, Ducharne, Agnes, Gascoin, Simon, Grippa, Manuela, Guichard, Françoise, Gusev, Yeugeniy, Harris, Phil, Jarlan, Lionel, Kergoat, Laurent, Mougin, Eric, Nasonova, Olga, Norgaard, Anette, Orgeval, Tristan, Ottlé, Catherine, Poccard-Leclercq, Isabelle, Polcher, Jan, Sandholt, Inge, Saux-Picart, Stephane, Taylor, Christopher, and Xue, Yongkang

Published
2009

27. Combining CMIP data with a regional convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change

Author

Klein, Cornelia, Jackson, Lawrence S., Parker, Douglas J., Marsham, John H., Taylor, Christopher M., Rowell, David P., Guichard, Françoise, Vischel, Theo, Famien, Adjoua Moise Landry, Diedhiou, Arona, Klein, Cornelia, Jackson, Lawrence S., Parker, Douglas J., Marsham, John H., Taylor, Christopher M., Rowell, David P., Guichard, Françoise, Vischel, Theo, Famien, Adjoua Moise Landry, and Diedhiou, Arona

Abstract

Due to associated hydrological risks, there is an urgent need to provide plausible quantified changes in future extreme rainfall rates. Convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations represent a major advance in capturing extreme rainfall and its sensitivities to atmospheric changes under global warming. However, they are computationally costly, limiting uncertainty evaluation in ensembles and covered time periods. This is in contrast to the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 ensembles, which cannot capture relevant convective processes, but provide a range of plausible projections for atmospheric drivers of rainfall change. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of extreme rainfall within West African storms to changes in atmospheric rainfall drivers, using both observations and a CP projection representing a decade under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 around 2100. We illustrate how these physical relationships can then be used to reconstruct better-informed extreme rainfall changes from CMIP, including for time periods not covered by the CP model. We find reconstructed hourly extreme rainfall over the Sahel increases across all CMIP models, with a plausible range of 37-75% for 2070-2100 (mean 55%, and 18-30% for 2030-2060). This is considerably higher than the +0-60% (mean +30%) we obtain from a traditional extreme rainfall metric based on raw daily CMIP rainfall, suggesting such analyses can underestimate extreme rainfall intensification. We conclude that process-based rainfall scaling is a useful approach for creating time-evolving rainfall projections in line with CP model behaviour, reconstructing important information for medium-term decision making. This approach also better enables the communication of uncertainties in extreme rainfall projections that reflect our current state of knowledge on its response to global warming, away from the limitations of coarse-scale climate models alone.

Published
2021

28. Synoptic timescale linkage between midlatitude winter troughs Sahara temperature patterns and northern Congo rainfall: a building block of regional climate variability

Author

Ward, Neil, Fink, Andreas H., Keane, Richard J., Guichard, Françoise, Marsham, John H., Parker, Douglas J., Taylor, Christopher M., Ward, Neil, Fink, Andreas H., Keane, Richard J., Guichard, Françoise, Marsham, John H., Parker, Douglas J., and Taylor, Christopher M.

Abstract

A coherent synoptic sequence, mostly over North Africa, is identified whereby an upper‐level midlatitude trough (in November‐March) excites several days of quasi‐stationary near‐surface warming across the Sahara, leading to rainfall events over northern Congo (NC), and perturbed weather more widely. Ahead of NC rainfall events, composite sequences first identify troughs for several days near Iberia, followed by relatively quick transfer to the Central Mediterranean (CMed). Iberia and CMed daily trough‐strength indices reveal that both lead to warming and NC rainfall. Iberia trough linkages develop through West Africa and take longer to reach NC, while CMed linkages reach NC faster (2‐3 days), with impact extent focused mostly south and east of CMed. Building up to the rainfall events, initial warming over the central Sahara migrates southeastward close to NC, ultimately with typical magnitude of about 1‐2°C at 10‐15°N. Such anomalies are statistically predictive for NC daily rainfall and associated nearby atmospheric features: anomalous low‐level southerly wind and increased moisture; anomalous low‐level westerly wind and vertical easterly shear to 600 hPa; increased mid‐level moisture (600 hPa), which along with low‐level moisture, connects northward into midlatitudes. A secondary route identified by which Iberia troughs can impact NC rainfall is through direct atmospheric teleconnection with precipitation to the west of NC, and subsequent migration of that convection eastward into NC. The eastern side of NC generally shows a small lag on western parts, and links more strongly to CMed troughs. Taken together, the lagged synoptic expression of Iberia and CMed troughs is widespread over several days, including much of North Africa (to equatorial latitudes), southwestern Asia, eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. Overall, these results can contribute to situational awareness for weather forecasters across the zones influenced by the troughs, while also providi

Published
2021

38. Extreme Precipitating Events in Satellite and Rain Gauge Products over the Sahel.

Author

Sanogo, Sidiki, Peyrillé, Philippe, Roehrig, Romain, Guichard, Françoise, and Ouedraogo, Ousmane

Subjects
PRECIPITATION gauges, RAIN gauges, SERVER farms (Computer network management), MICROWAVE measurements, CLIMATOLOGY, MONSOONS, PHASE-shifting interferometry
Abstract

Over the recent decades, extreme precipitation events (EPEs) have become more frequent over the Sahel. Their properties, however, have so far received little attention. In this study the spatial distribution, intensity, seasonality, and interannual variability of EPEs are examined, using both a reference dataset based on a high-density rain gauge network over Burkina Faso and 24 precipitation gridded datasets. The gridded datasets are evaluated in depth over Burkina Faso while their commonalities are used to document the EPE properties over the Sahel. EPEs are defined as the occurrence of daily accumulated precipitation exceeding the all-day 99th percentile over a 1° × 1° pixel. Over Burkina Faso, this percentile ranges between 21 and 33 mm day−1. The reference dataset show that EPEs occur in phase with the West African monsoon annual cycle, more frequently during the monsoon core season and during wet years. These results are consistent among the gridded datasets over Burkina Faso but also over the wider Sahel. The gridded datasets exhibit a wide diversity of skills when compared to the Burkinabe reference. The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Daily version 1 (GPCC-FDDv1) and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Gauge Reanalysis version 6.0 (GSMaP-gauge-RNL v6.0) are the only products that properly reproduce all of the EPE features examined in this work. The datasets using a combination of microwave and infrared measurements are prone to overestimate the EPE intensity, while infrared-only products generally underestimate it. Their calibrated versions perform better than their uncalibrated (near-real-time) versions. This study finally emphasizes that the lack of rain gauge data availability over the whole Sahel strongly impedes our ability to gain insights in EPE properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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43. Sahelian Precipitation Change Induced by SST Increase: The Contrasting Roles of Regional and Larger‐Scale Drivers

Author

Guichard, Francoise, Dixon, Ross, Peyrillé, Philippe, Guichard, Françoise, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Scale (ratio), Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Monsoon, 01 natural sciences, West africa, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Precipitation, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience

Published
2019

45. Evolution of surface hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian strip : an updated review

Author

Descroix, Luc, Guichard, FranÇoise, Grippa, Manuela, Lambert, Laurent, Panthou, Gérémy, Fisjak, Yu, GAL, LAETITIA, Dardel, Cécile, Quantin, Guillaume, Kergoat , Laurent, Bouaita, Yasmin, Hiernaux, Pierre, Vischel, Theo, Pellarin, Thierry, Faty, Bakary, Wilcox, Catherine, Malam Abdou, Moussa, Mamadou, Ibrahim, Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Ndiaye, Ousmane, Sané, Youssouph, Dacosta, Honoré, Gosset, Marielle, Cassé, Claire, Sultan, Benjamin, Barry, Aliou, Amogu, Okechukwu, Nka Nnomo, Bernadette, Barry, Alseny, Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (GET), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Qatar University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Patrimoines Locaux et Gouvernance (PALOC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD), Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Direction Nationale de l'Hydraulique (DNH), Ministère de l'Hydraulique, Centre de Recherches Hydrologiques, Université de Yaoundé I, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'étude des transferts en hydrologie et environnement (LTHE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie, Université des Antilles (UA)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), and Université de Yaoundé I [Yaoundé]

Subjects
lcsh:TD201-500, lcsh:Hydraulic engineering, water holding capacity, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, land use, land use/land cover changes, land cover changes, lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, climate change, lcsh:TC1-978, Sahel, re-greening, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, hydrological paradox
Abstract

In the West African Sahel, two paradoxical hydrological behaviors have occurred during the last five decades. The first paradox was observed during the 1968&ndash, 1990s &lsquo, Great Drought&rsquo, period, during which runoff significantly increased. The second paradox appeared during the subsequent period of rainfall recovery (i.e., since the 1990s), during which the runoff coefficient continued to increase despite the general re-greening of the Sahel. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on the drivers of these paradoxical behaviors, focusing on recent works in the West African Sahelo/Sudanian strip, and upscaling the hydrological processes through an analysis of recent data from two representative areas of this region. This paper helps better determine the respective roles played by Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCC), the evolution of rainfall intensity and the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in these hydrological paradoxes. Both the literature review and recent data converge in indicating that the first Sahelian hydrological paradox was mostly driven by LULCC, while the second paradox has been caused by both LULCC and climate evolution, mainly the recent increase in rainfall intensity.

Published
2018

48. Towards a Long-Term Reanalysis of Land Surface Variables over Western Africa: LDAS-Monde Applied over Burkina Faso from 2001 to 2018

Author

Tall, Moustapha, primary, Albergel, Clément, additional, Bonan, Bertrand, additional, Zheng, Yongjun, additional, Guichard, Françoise, additional, Dramé, Mamadou, additional, Gaye, Amadou, additional, Sintondji, Luc, additional, Hountondji, Fabien, additional, Nikiema, Pinghouinde, additional, and Calvet, Jean-Christophe, additional

Published
2019
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