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BACKGROUND: Primaquine radical cure is used to treat dormant liver-stage parasites and prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria but is limited by concerns of haemolysis. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the haematological safety of different primaquine regimens for P vivax radical cure. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days where primaquine was commenced within 3 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine), and if they recorded haemoglobin or haematocrit concentrations on day 0. We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. The main outcome was haemoglobin reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL by day 14. Haemoglobin concentration changes between day 0 and days 2-3 and between day 0 and days 5-7 were assessed by mixed-effects linear regression for patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity of (1) 30% or higher and (2) between 30% and less than 70%. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470 and CRD42022303680. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 18 stud

Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially. Spatial information on the changing levels of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia is therefore critical for health organisations to prioritise malaria control measures, but available data on artemisinin resistance are sparse. We use a comprehensive database from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network on the prevalence of non-synonymous mutations in the Kelch 13 (K13) gene, which are known to be associated with artemisinin resistance, and a Bayesian geostatistical model to produce spatio-temporal predictions of artemisinin resistance. Our maps of estimated prevalence show an expansion of the K13 mutation across the Greater Mekong Subregion from 2000 to 2022. Moreover, the period between 2010 and 2015 demonstrated the most spatial change across the region. Our model and maps provide important insights into the spatial and temporal trends of artemisinin resistance in a way that is not possible using data alone, thereby enabling improved spatial decision support systems on an unprecedented fine-scale spatial resolution. By predicting for the first time spatio-temporal patterns and extents of artemisinin resistance at the subcontinent level, this study provides critical information for supporting malaria elimination goals in Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: Imperfect adherence is a major barrier to effective primaquine radical cure of Plasmodium vivax. This study investigated the effect of reduced adherence on the risk of P. vivax recurrence. METHODS: Efficacy studies of patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, including a treatment arm with daily primaquine, published between January 1999 and March 2020 were identified. Individual patient data from eligible studies were pooled using standardized methodology. Adherence to primaquine was inferred from i) the percentage of supervised doses and ii) the total mg/kg dose received compared to the target total mg/kg dose per protocol. The effect of adherence to primaquine on the incidence of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 90 was investigated by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 82 eligible studies, 32 were available including 6917 patients from 18 countries. For adherence assessed by percentage of supervised primaquine, 2790 patients (40.3%) had poor adherence (≤ 50%) and 4127 (59.7%) had complete adherence. The risk of recurrence by day 90 was 14.0% [95% confidence interval: 12.1-16.1] in patients with poor adherence compared to 5.8% [5.0-6.7] following full adherence; p = 0.014. After controlling for age, sex, baseline parasitaemia, and total primaquine dose per protocol, the rate of the first recurrence was higher following poor adherence compared to patients with full adherence (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.3 [1.8-2.9]). When adherence was quantified by total mg/kg dose received among 3706 patients, 347 (9.4%) had poor adherence, 88 (2.4%) had moderate adherence, and 3271 (88.2%) had complete adherence to treatment. The risks of recurrence by day 90 were 8.2% [4.3-15.2] in patients with poor adherence and 4.9% [4.1-5.8] in patients with full adherence; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Reduced adherence, including less supervision, increases the risk of vivax recurrence.

BACKGROUND: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. METHODS: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with ≤ 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is associated with anaemia-related morbidity, attributable to host, parasite and drug factors. We quantified the haematological response following treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria to identify the factors associated with malarial anaemia. METHODS: Individual patient data from eligible antimalarial efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, available through the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository prior to August 2015, were pooled using standardised methodology. The haematological response over time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with nonlinear terms for time, and the model was then used to estimate the mean haemoglobin at day of nadir and day 7. Multivariable logistic regression quantified risk factors for moderately severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 7 g/dL) at day 0, day 3 and day 7 as well as a fractional fall ≥ 25% at day 3 and day 7. RESULTS: A total of 70,226 patients, recruited into 200 studies between 1991 and 2013, were included in the analysis: 50,859 (72.4%) enrolled in Africa, 18,451 (26.3%) in Asia and 916 (1.3%) in South America. The median haemoglobin concentration at presentation was 9.9 g/dL (range 5.0-19.7 g/dL) in Africa, 11.6 g/dL (range 5.0-20.0 g/dL) in Asia and 12.3 g/dL (range 6.9-17.9 g/dL) in South America. Moderately severe anaemia (Hb < 7g/dl) was present in 8.4% (4284/50,859) of patients from Africa, 3.3% (606/18,451) from Asia and 0.1% (1/916) from South America. The nadir haemoglobin occurred on day 2 post treatment with a mean fall from baseline of 0.57 g/dL in Africa and 1.13 g/dL in Asia. Independent risk factors for moderately severe anaemia on day 7, in both Africa and Asia, included moderately severe anaemia at baseline (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 16.10 and AOR = 23.00, respectively), young age (age < 1 compared to ≥ 12 years AOR = 12.81 and AOR = 6.79, respectively), high parasitaemia (AOR = 1.78 and AOR = 1.

BACKGROUND: Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended in Africa in several antimalarial preventive regimens including Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnant women (IPTp), Intermittent Preventive Treatment in infants (IPTi) and Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC). The effectiveness of SP-based preventive treatments are threatened in areas where Plasmodium falciparum resistance to SP is high. The prevalence of mutations in the dihydropteroate synthase gene (pfdhps) can be used to monitor SP effectiveness. IPTi-SP is recommended only in areas where the prevalence of the pfdhps540E mutation is below 50%. It has also been suggested that IPTp-SP does not have a protective effect in areas where the pfdhps581G mutation, exceeds 10%. However, pfdhps mutation prevalence data in Africa are extremely heterogenous and scattered, with data completely missing from many areas. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The WWARN SP Molecular Surveyor database was designed to summarize dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) and pfdhps gene mutation prevalence data. In this paper, pfdhps mutation prevalence data was used to generate continuous spatiotemporal surface maps of the estimated prevalence of the SP resistance markers pfdhps437G, pfdhps540E, and pfdhps581G in Africa from 1990 to 2020 using a geostatistical model, with a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainty. The maps of estimated prevalence show an expansion of the pfdhps437G mutations across the entire continent over the last three decades. The pfdhps540E mutation emerged from limited foci in East Africa to currently exceeding 50% estimated prevalence in most of East and South East Africa. pfdhps540E distribution is expanding at low or moderate prevalence in central Africa and a predicted focus in West Africa. Although the pfdhps581G mutation spread from one focus in East Africa in 2000, to exceeding 10% estimated prevalence in several foci in 2010, the predicted distribution of the marker did not expand in 2020, however

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness caused by intracellular bacteria from the genus Orientia. It is estimated that one billion people are at risk, with one million cases annually mainly affecting rural areas in Asia-Oceania. Relative to its burden, scrub typhus is understudied, and treatment recommendations vary with poor evidence base. These knowledge gaps could be addressed by establishing an individual participant-level data (IPD) platform, which would enable pooled, more detailed and statistically powered analyses to be conducted. This study aims to assess the characteristics of scrub typhus treatment studies and explore the feasibility and potential value of developing a scrub typhus IPD platform to address unanswered research questions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic literature review looking for prospective scrub typhus clinical treatment studies published from 1998 to 2020. Six electronic databases (Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline, Ovid Global Health, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Global Index Medicus), ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO ICTRP were searched. We extracted data on study design, treatment tested, patient characteristics, diagnostic methods, geographical location, outcome measures, and statistical methodology. Among 3,100 articles screened, 127 were included in the analysis. 12,079 participants from 12 countries were enrolled in the identified studies. ELISA, PCR, and eschar presence were the most commonly used diagnostic methods. Doxycycline, azithromycin, and chloramphenicol were the most commonly administered antibiotics. Mortality, complications, adverse events, and clinical response were assessed in most studies. There was substantial heterogeneity in the diagnostic methods used, treatment administered (including dosing and duration), and outcome assessed across studies. There were few interventional studies and limited data collected on specific groups such as children and pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

BACKGROUND: Oral ivermectin is a safe broad spectrum anthelminthic used for treating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Currently, ivermectin use is contraindicated in children weighing less than 15 kg, restricting access to this drug for the treatment of NTDs. Here we provide an updated systematic review of the literature and we conducted an individual-level patient data (IPD) meta-analysis describing the safety of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) for IPD guidelines by searching MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Ovid Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, TOXLINE for all clinical trials, case series, case reports, and database entries for reports on the use of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg that were published between 1 January 1980 to 25 October 2019. The protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42017056515. A total of 3,730 publications were identified, 97 were selected for potential inclusion, but only 17 sources describing 15 studies met the minimum criteria which consisted of known weights of children less than 15 kg linked to possible adverse events, and provided comprehensive IPD. A total of 1,088 children weighing less than 15 kg were administered oral ivermectin for one of the following indications: scabies, mass drug administration for scabies control, crusted scabies, cutaneous larva migrans, myiasis, pthiriasis, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, and parasitic disease of unknown origin. Overall a total of 1.4% (15/1,088) of children experienced 18 adverse events all of which were mild and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Existing limited data suggest that oral ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kilograms is safe. Data from well

BACKGROUND: There is a high risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia following treatment of falciparum malaria. Our study aimed to quantify this risk and the associated determinants using an individual patient data meta-analysis in order to identify populations in which a policy of universal radical cure, combining artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a hypnozoitocidal antimalarial drug, would be beneficial. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews identified efficacy studies of uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with ACT that were undertaken in regions coendemic for P. vivax between 1 January 1960 and 5 January 2018. Data from eligible studies were pooled using standardised methodology. The risk of P. vivax parasitaemia at days 42 and 63 and associated risk factors were investigated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. Study quality was assessed using a tool developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42018097400). In total, 42 studies enrolling 15,341 patients were included in the analysis, including 30 randomised controlled trials and 12 cohort studies. Overall, 14,146 (92.2%) patients had P. falciparum monoinfection and 1,195 (7.8%) mixed infection with P. falciparum and P. vivax. The median age was 17.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 9.0-29.0 years; range = 0-80 years), with 1,584 (10.3%) patients younger than 5 years. 2,711 (17.7%) patients were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (AL, 13 studies), 651 (4.2%) with artesunate-amodiaquine (AA, 6 studies), 7,340 (47.8%) with artesunate-mefloquine (AM, 25 studies), and 4,639 (30.2%) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, 16 studies). 14,537 patients (94.8%) were enrolled from the Asia-Pacific region, 684 (4.5%) from the Americas, and 120 (0.8%) from Africa. At day 42, the cumulative risk of vivax parasita

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in areas of emerging chloroquine resistance. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the efficacies of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) with or without primaquine (PQ) on the risk of recurrent P. vivax. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Clinical efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. vivax treated with DP or AL and published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2018, were identified by conducting a systematic review registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42016053310. Investigators of eligible studies were invited to contribute individual patient data that were pooled using standardised methodology. The effect of mg/kg dose of piperaquine/lumefantrine, ACT administered, and PQ on the rate of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 42 after starting treatment were investigated by Cox regression analyses according to an a priori analysis plan. Secondary outcomes were the risk of recurrence assessed on days 28 and 63. Nineteen studies enrolling 2,017 patients were included in the analysis. The risk of recurrent P. vivax at day 42 was significantly higher in the 384 patients treated with AL alone (44.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 38.7-49.8) compared with the 812 patients treated with DP alone (9.3%, 95% CI 7.1-12.2): adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 12.63 (95% CI 6.40-24.92), p < 0.001. The rates of recurrence assessed at days 42 and 63 were associated inversely with the dose of piperaquine: AHRs (95% CI) for every 5-mg/kg increase 0.63 (0.48-0.84), p = 0.0013 and 0.83 (0.73-0.94), p = 0.0033, respectively. The dose of lumefantrine was not significantly associated with the rate of recurrence (1.07 for every 5-mg/kg increase, 95% CI 0.99-1.16, p = 0.0869). In a post hoc analysis, in patients with symptomatic recurrence after AL, the mean ha

BACKGROUND: Antimalarial clinical efficacy studies for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria frequently encounter situations in which molecular genotyping is unable to discriminate between parasitic recurrence, either new infection or recrudescence. The current WHO guideline recommends excluding these individuals with indeterminate outcomes in a complete case (CC) analysis. Data from the four artemisinin-based combination (4ABC) trial was used to compare the performance of multiple imputation (MI) and inverse probability weighting (IPW) against the standard CC analysis for dealing with indeterminate recurrences. METHODS: 3369 study participants from the multicentre study (4ABC trial) with molecularly defined parasitic recurrence treated with three artemisinin-based combination therapies were used to represent a complete dataset. A set proportion of recurrent infections (10, 30 and 45%) were reclassified as missing using two mechanisms: a completely random selection (mechanism 1); missingness weakly dependent (mechanism 2a) and strongly dependent (mechanism 2b) on treatment and transmission intensity. The performance of MI, IPW and CC approaches in estimating the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) probability of parasitic recrudescence at day 28 was then compared. In addition, the maximum likelihood estimate of the cured proportion was presented for further comparison (analytical solution). Performance measures (bias, relative bias, standard error and coverage) were reported as an average from 1000 simulation runs. RESULTS: The CC analyses resulted in absolute underestimation of K-M probability of day 28 recrudescence by up to 1.7% and were associated with reduced precision and poor coverage across all the scenarios studied. Both MI and IPW method performed better (greater consistency and greater efficiency) compared to CC analysis. In the absence of censoring, the analytical solution provided the most consistent and accurate estimate of cured proportion compared to the CC ana

BACKGROUND: Antimalarial efficacy studies in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum are confounded by a new infection (a competing risk event) since this event can potentially preclude a recrudescent event (primary endpoint of interest). The current WHO guidelines recommend censoring competing risk events when deriving antimalarial efficacy. We investigated the impact of considering a new infection as a competing risk event on the estimation of antimalarial efficacy in single-armed and comparative drug trials using two simulation studies. METHODS: The first simulation study explored differences in the estimates of treatment failure for areas of varying transmission intensities using the complement of the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimate and the Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF). The second simulation study extended this to a comparative drug efficacy trial for comparing the K-M curves using the log-rank test, and Gray's k-sample test for comparing the equality of CIFs. RESULTS: The complement of the K-M approach produced larger estimates of cumulative treatment failure compared to the CIF method; the magnitude of which was correlated with the observed proportion of new infection and recrudescence. When the drug efficacy was 90%, the absolute overestimation in failure was 0.3% in areas of low transmission rising to 3.1% in the high transmission settings. In a scenario which is most likely to be observed in a comparative trial of antimalarials, where a new drug regimen is associated with an increased (or decreased) rate of recrudescences and new infections compared to an existing drug, the log-rank test was found to be more powerful to detect treatment differences compared to the Gray's k-sample test. CONCLUSIONS: The CIF approach should be considered for deriving estimates of antimalarial efficacy, in high transmission areas or for failing drugs. For comparative studies of antimalarial treatments, researchers need to select the statistical test that is best s

BACKGROUND: The fixed dose combination of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely used treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Relatively lower cure rates and lumefantrine levels have been reported in young children and in pregnant women during their second and third trimester. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of lumefantrine and the pharmacokinetic properties of its metabolite, desbutyl-lumefantrine, in order to inform optimal dosing regimens in all patient populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A search in PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, Google Scholar, conference proceedings, and the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) pharmacology database identified 31 relevant clinical studies published between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2012, with 4,546 patients in whom lumefantrine concentrations were measured. Under the auspices of WWARN, relevant individual concentration-time data, clinical covariates, and outcome data from 4,122 patients were made available and pooled for the meta-analysis. The developed lumefantrine population pharmacokinetic model was used for dose optimisation through in silico simulations. Venous plasma lumefantrine concentrations 7 days after starting standard AL treatment were 24.2% and 13.4% lower in children weighing <15 kg and 15-25 kg, respectively, and 20.2% lower in pregnant women compared with non-pregnant adults. Lumefantrine exposure decreased with increasing pre-treatment parasitaemia, and the dose limitation on absorption of lumefantrine was substantial. Simulations using the lumefantrine pharmacokinetic model suggest that, in young children and pregnant women beyond the first trimester, lengthening the dose regimen (twice daily for 5 days) and, to a lesser extent, intensifying the frequency of dosing (3 times daily for 3 days) would be more efficacious than using higher individual doses in the current standard treatment regimen (twice

BACKGROUND: Altered sensitivity to multiple antimalarial drugs is mediated by polymorphisms in pfmdr1, which encodes the Plasmodium falciparum multidrug resistance transporter. In Africa the N86Y and D1246Y polymorphisms have been shown to be selected by treatment, with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) selecting for wild-type and mutant alleles, respectively. However, there has been little study of pfmdr1 haplotypes, in part because haplotype analyses are complicated by multiclonal infections. METHODS: We fit a haplotype frequency estimation model, which accounts for multiclonal infections, to the polymorphic pfmdr1 N86Y, Y184F, and D1246Y alleles in samples from a longitudinal trial comparing AL and DP to treat uncomplicated P falciparum malaria in Tororo, Uganda from 2007 to 2012. We regressed estimates onto covariates of trial arm and selective drug pressure. RESULTS: Yearly trends showed increasing frequency estimates for haplotypes with wild type pfmdr1 N86 and D1246 alleles and decreasing frequency estimates for haplotypes with the mutant pfmdr1 86Y allele. Considering days since prior therapy, we saw evidence suggestive of selection by AL for haplotypes with N86 combined with 184F, D1246, or both, and against all haplotypes with 86Y, and evidence suggestive of selection by DP for 86Y only when combined with Y184 and 1246Y (haplotype YYY) and against haplotypes NFD and NYY. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our model, AL selected several haplotypes containing N86, whereas DP selection was haplotype specific, demonstrating the importance of haplotype analyses. Inverse selective pressure of AL and DP on the complementary haplotypes NFD and YYY suggests that rotating artemisinin-based antimalarial combination regimens may be the best treatment option to prevent resistance selection.

The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method is currently the preferred approach to derive an efficacy estimate from anti-malarial trial data. In this approach event times are assumed to be continuous and estimates are generated on the assumption that there is only one cause of failure. In reality, failures are captured at pre-scheduled time points and patients can fail treatment due to a variety of causes other than the primary endpoint, commonly termed competing risk events. Ignoring these underlying assumptions can potentially distort the derived efficacy estimates and result in misleading conclusions. This review details the evolution of statistical methods used to derive anti-malarial efficacy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria and assesses the limitations of the current practices. Alternative approaches are explored and their implementation is discussed using example data from a large multi-site study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently. METHODS: The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling. RESULTS: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion. CONCLUSION: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38

Background

Methods

Results

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum manifests as slow parasite clearance but this measure is also influenced by host immunity, initial parasite biomass and partner drug efficacy. This study collated data from clinical trials of artemisinin derivatives in falciparum malaria with frequent parasite counts to provide reference parasite clearance estimates stratified by location, treatment and time, to examine host factors affecting parasite clearance, and to assess the relationships between parasite clearance and risk of recrudescence during follow-up. METHODS: Data from 24 studies, conducted from 1996 to 2013, with frequent parasite counts were pooled. Parasite clearance half-life (PC1/2) was estimated using the WWARN Parasite Clearance Estimator. Random effects regression models accounting for study and site heterogeneity were used to explore factors affecting PC1/2 and risk of recrudescence within areas with reported delayed parasite clearance (western Cambodia, western Thailand after 2000, southern Vietnam, southern Myanmar) and in all other areas where parasite populations are artemisinin sensitive. RESULTS: PC1/2 was estimated in 6975 patients, 3288 of whom also had treatment outcomes evaluate d during 28-63 days follow-up, with 93 (2.8 %) PCR-confirmed recrudescences. In areas with artemisinin-sensitive parasites, the median PC1/2 following three-day artesunate treatment (4 mg/kg/day) ranged from 1.8 to 3.0 h and the proportion of patients with PC1/2 >5 h from 0 to 10 %. Artesunate doses of 4 mg/kg/day decreased PC1/2 by 8.1 % (95 % CI 3.2-12.6) compared to 2 mg/kg/day, except in populations with delayed parasite clearance. PC1/2 was longer in children and in patients with fever or anaemia at enrolment. Long PC1/2 (HR = 2.91, 95 % CI 1.95-4.34 for twofold increase, p < 0.001) and high initial parasitaemia (HR = 2.23, 95 % CI 1.44-3.45 for tenfold increase, p < 0.001) were associated independently with an increased risk of recrudescence. In

BACKGROUND: Reliable measures of anti-malarial resistance are crucial for malaria control. Resistance is typically a complex trait: multiple mutations in a single parasite (a haplotype or genotype) are necessary for elaboration of the resistant phenotype. The frequency of a genetic motif (proportion of parasite clones in the parasite population that carry a given allele, haplotype or genotype) is a useful measure of resistance. In areas of high endemicity, malaria patients generally harbour multiple parasite clones; they have multiplicities of infection (MOIs) greater than one. However, most standard experimental procedures only allow measurement of marker prevalence (proportion of patient blood samples that test positive for a given mutation or combination of mutations), not frequency. It is misleading to compare marker prevalence between sites that have different mean MOIs; frequencies are required instead. METHODS: A Bayesian statistical model was developed to estimate Plasmodium falciparum genetic motif frequencies from prevalence data collected in the field. To assess model performance and computational speed, a detailed simulation study was implemented. Application of the model was tested using datasets from five sites in Uganda. The datasets included prevalence data on markers of resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and an average MOI estimate for each study site. RESULTS: The simulation study revealed that the genetic motif frequencies that were estimated using the model were more accurate and precise than conventional estimates based on direct counting. Importantly, the model did not require measurements of the MOI in each patient; it used the average MOI in the patient population. Furthermore, if a dataset included partially genotyped patient blood samples, the model imputed the data that were missing. Using the model and the Ugandan data, genotype frequencies were estimated and four biologically relevant genotypes were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The mod

Resistance to chloroquine (CQ) and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) led the World Health Organization (WHO) to recommend changes in national drug policies. The time between policy changes and their implementation profoundly affects program impact. We developed a model based on data on antimalarial treatments, extracted from household surveys and national antimalarial policy information from the literature. Drug use in each country during the time period 1999-2011 and the trend in reduction of CQ use after policy change were estimated. The SP use estimates were correlated with the prevalence of a molecular marker associated with SP resistance. There was no spatial pattern in the country-level rate of reduction of CQ use, after policy change. In East Africa SP drug use was strongly correlated to resistance. If artemisinin resistance spreads to, or emerges in, Africa this methodology will be a valuable tool to estimate actual drug use and its impact on changes in drug efficacy.

BACKGROUND: Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is increasingly recommended for antimalarial treatment in many endemic countries; however, concerns have been raised over its potential under dosing in young children. We investigated the influence of different dosing schedules on DP's clinical efficacy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic search of the literature was conducted to identify all studies published between 1960 and February 2013, in which patients were enrolled and treated with DP. Principal investigators were approached and invited to share individual patient data with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN). Data were pooled using a standardised methodology. Univariable and multivariable risk factors for parasite recrudescence were identified using a Cox's regression model with shared frailty across the study sites. Twenty-four published and two unpublished studies (n = 7,072 patients) were included in the analysis. After correcting for reinfection by parasite genotyping, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were 97.7% (95% CI 97.3%-98.1%) at day 42 and 97.2% (95% CI 96.7%-97.7%) at day 63. Overall 28.6% (979/3,429) of children aged 1 to 5 years received a total dose of piperaquine below 48 mg/kg (the lower limit recommended by WHO); this risk was 2.3-2.9-fold greater compared to that in the other age groups and was associated with reduced efficacy at day 63 (94.4% [95% CI 92.6%-96.2%], p<0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors, the mg/kg dose of piperaquine was found to be a significant predictor for recrudescence, the risk increasing by 13% (95% CI 5.0%-21%) for every 5 mg/kg decrease in dose; p = 0.002. In a multivariable model increasing the target minimum total dose of piperaquine in children aged 1 to 5 years old from 48 mg/kg to 59 mg/kg would halve the risk of treatment failure and cure at least 95% of patients; such an increment was not associated with gastrointestinal toxicity in the ten studies in which this could be assessed.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinins in Southeast Asia threatens the control of malaria worldwide. The pharmacodynamic hallmark of artemisinin derivatives is rapid parasite clearance (a short parasite half-life), therefore, the in vivo phenotype of slow clearance defines the reduced susceptibility to the drug. Measurement of parasite counts every six hours during the first three days after treatment have been recommended to measure the parasite clearance half-life, but it remains unclear whether simpler sampling intervals and frequencies might also be sufficient to reliably estimate this parameter. METHODS: A total of 2,746 parasite density-time profiles were selected from 13 clinical trials in Thailand, Cambodia, Mali, Vietnam, and Kenya. In these studies, parasite densities were measured every six hours until negative after treatment with an artemisinin derivative (alone or in combination with a partner drug). The WWARN Parasite Clearance Estimator (PCE) tool was used to estimate "reference" half-lives from these six-hourly measurements. The effect of four alternative sampling schedules on half-life estimation was investigated, and compared to the reference half-life (time zero, 6, 12, 24 (A1); zero, 6, 18, 24 (A2); zero, 12, 18, 24 (A3) or zero, 12, 24 (A4) hours and then every 12 hours). Statistical bootstrap methods were used to estimate the sampling distribution of half-lives for parasite populations with different geometric mean half-lives. A simulation study was performed to investigate a suite of 16 potential alternative schedules and half-life estimates generated by each of the schedules were compared to the "true" half-life. The candidate schedules in the simulation study included (among others) six-hourly sampling, schedule A1, schedule A4, and a convenience sampling schedule at six, seven, 24, 25, 48 and 49 hours. RESULTS: The median (range) parasite half-life for all clinical studies combined was 3.1 (0.7-12.9)

INTRODUCTION: There are growing concerns about the emergence of resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). Since the widespread adoption of ACTs, there has been a decrease in the systematic surveillance of antimalarial drug resistance in many malaria-endemic countries. The aim of this work was to test whether data on travellers returning from Africa with malaria could serve as an additional surveillance system of local information sources for the emergence of drug resistance in endemic-countries. METHODOLOGY: Data were collected from travellers with symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum malaria returning from Senegal (n = 1,993), Mali (n = 2,372), Cote d'Ivoire (n = 4,778) or Cameroon (n = 3,272) and recorded in the French Malaria Reference Centre during the period 1996-2011. Temporal trends of the proportion of parasite isolates that carried the mutant genotype, pfcrt 76T, a marker of resistance to chloroquine (CQ) and pfdhfr 108N, a marker of resistance to pyrimethamine, were compared for travellers and within-country surveys that were identified through a literature review in PubMed. The in vitro response to CQ was also compared between these two groups for parasites from Senegal. RESULTS: The trends in the proportion of parasites that carried pfcrt 76T, and pfdhfr 108N, were compared for parasites from travellers and patients within-country using the slopes of the curves over time; no significant differences in the trends were found for any of the 4 countries. These results were supported by in vitro analysis of parasites from the field in Senegal and travellers returning to France, where the trends were also not significantly different. CONCLUSION: The results have not shown different trends in resistance between parasites derived from travellers or from parasites within-country. This work highlights the value of an international database of drug responses in travellers as an additional tool to assess the emergence of drug resistance in endemic a

BACKGROUND: Chloroquine (CQ) was the main malaria therapy worldwide from the 1940s until the 1990s. Following the emergence of CQ-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, most African countries discontinued the use of CQ, and now promote artemisinin-based combination therapy as the first-line treatment. This change was generally initiated during the last decade in West and Central Africa. The aim of this study is to describe the changes in CQ susceptibility in this African region, using travellers returning from this region as a sentinel system. METHODS: The study was conducted by the Malaria National Reference Centre, France. The database collated the pfcrtK76T molecular marker for CQ susceptibility and the in vitro response to CQ of parasites from travellers' isolates returning from Senegal, Mali, Ivory Coast or Cameroon. As a proxy of drug pressure, data regarding CQ intake in febrile children were collated for the study period. Logistic regression models were used to detect trends in the proportions of CQ resistant isolates. RESULTS: A total of 2874 parasite isolates were genotyped between 2000-2011. The prevalence of the pfcrt76T mutant genotype significantly decreased for Senegal (from 78% to 47%), Ivory Coast (from 63% to 37%), Cameroon (from 90% to 59%) and remained stable for Mali. The geometric mean of the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) of CQ in vitro susceptibility and the proportion of resistant isolates (defining resistance as an IC50 value > 100 nM) significantly decreased for Senegal (from 86 nM (59%) to 39 nM (25%)), Mali (from 84 nM (50%) to 51 nM (31%)), Ivory Coast (from 75 nM (59%) to 29 nM (16%)) and Cameroon (from 181 nM (75%) to 51 nM (37%)). Both analyses (molecular and in vitro susceptibility) were performed for the 2004-2011 period, after the four countries had officially discontinued CQ and showed an accelerated decline of the resistant isolates for the four countries. Meanwhile, CQ use among children significantly deceased in this region (fi

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum has repeatedly evolved resistance to first-line anti-malarial drugs, thwarting efforts to control and eliminate the disease and in some period of time this contributed largely to an increase in mortality. Here a mathematical model was developed to map the spatiotemporal trends in the distribution of mutations in the P. falciparum dihydropteroate synthetase (dhps) gene that confer resistance to the anti-malarial sulphadoxine, and are a useful marker for the combination of alleles in dhfr and dhps that is highly correlated with resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). The aim of this study was to present a proof of concept for spatiotemporal modelling of trends in anti-malarial drug resistance that can be applied to monitor trends in resistance to components of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) or other anti-malarials, as they emerge or spread. METHODS: Prevalence measurements of single nucleotide polymorphisms in three codon positions of the dihydropteroate synthetase (dhps) gene from published studies of dhps mutations across Africa were used. A model-based geostatistics approach was adopted to create predictive surfaces of the dhps540E mutation over the spatial domain of sub-Saharan Africa from 1990-2010. The statistical model was implemented within a Bayesian framework and hence quantified the associated uncertainty of the prediction of the prevalence of the dhps540E mutation in sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSIONS: The maps presented visualize the changing prevalence of the dhps540E mutation in sub-Saharan Africa. These allow prediction of space-time trends in the parasite resistance to SP, and provide probability distributions of resistance prevalence in places where no data are available as well as insight on the spread of resistance in a way that the data alone do not allow. The results of this work will be extended to design optimal sampling strategies for the future molecular surveillance of resistance, providing a proo

BACKGROUND: A significant reduction in parasite clearance rates following artesunate treatment of falciparum malaria, and increased failure rates following artemisinin combination treatments (ACT), signaled emergent artemisinin resistance in Western Cambodia. Accurate measurement of parasite clearance is therefore essential to assess the spread of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum. The slope of the log-parasitaemia versus time relationship is considered to be the most robust measure of anti-malarial effect. However, an initial lag phase of numerical instability often precedes a steady exponential decline in the parasite count after the start of anti-malarial treatment. This lag complicates the clearance estimation, introduces observer subjectivity, and may influence the accuracy and consistency of reported results. METHODS: To address this problem, a new approach to modelling clearance of malaria parasites from parasitaemia-time profiles has been explored and validated. The methodology detects when a lag phase is present, selects the most appropriate model (linear, quadratic or cubic) to fit log-transformed parasite data, and calculates estimates of parasite clearance adjusted for this lag phase. Departing from previous approaches, parasite counts below the level of detection are accounted for and not excluded from the calculation. RESULTS: Data from large clinical studies with frequent parasite counts were examined. The effect of a lag phase on parasite clearance rate estimates is discussed, using individual patient data examples. As part of the World Wide Antimalarial Resistance Network's (WWARN) efforts to make innovative approaches available to the malaria community, an automated informatics tool: the parasite clearance estimator has been developed. CONCLUSIONS: The parasite clearance estimator provides a consistent, reliable and accurate method to estimate the lag phase and malaria parasite clearance rate. It could be used to detect early signs of