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5. EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 : From A Climate Perspective

Author

Herring, Stephanie C., Christidi, Nikolaos, Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., Schreck, Carl J., Stott, Peter A., Webb, Robert S., Werner, Francisco E., Knutson, Thomas R., Kam, Jonghun, Zeng, Fanrong, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Brainard, Russell E., Oliver, Thomas, McPhaden, Michael J., Cohen, Anne, Venegas, Robert o, Heenan, Adel, Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo, Rotjan, Randi, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Flint, Elizabeth, Hunter, Susan A., Oliver, Eric C. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Holbrook, Neil J., Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Tett, Simon F. B., Falk, Alexander, Rogers, Megan, Spuler, Fiona, Turner, Calum, Wainwright, Joshua, Dimdore-Miles, Oscar, Knight, Sam, Freychet, Nicolas, Mineter, Michael J., Lehmann, Caroline E. R., Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Haarsma, Rein, Otto, Friederike E. L., King, Andrew D., van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Kew, Sarah, Philip, Sjoukje, Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Cullen, Heidi, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Yiou, Pascal, Radanovics, Sabine, Vautard, Robert, Sippel, Sebastian, El-Madany, Tarek S., Migliavacca, Mirco, Mahecha, Miguel D., Carrara, Arnaud, Flach, Milan, Kaminski, Thomas, Otto, Friederike E. L., Thonicke, Kirsten, Vossbeck, Michael, Reichstein, Markus, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Linying, Wood, Eric F., Funk, Chris, Davenport, Frank, Harrison, Laura, Magadzire, Tamuka, Galu, Gideon, Artan, Guleid A., Shukla, Shraddhanand, Korecha, Diriba, Indeje, Matayo, Pomposi, Catherine, Macharia, Denis, Husak, Gregory, Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne, Imada, Yukiko, Shiogama, Hideo, Takahashi, Chiharu, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Kamae, Youichi, Maeda, Shuhei, Sun, Qiaohong, Miao, Chiyuan, Zhou, Chunlüe, Wang, Kaicun, Qi, Dan, Yuan, Xing, Wang, Shanshan, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Qian, Cheng, Wang, Jun, Dong, Siyan, Yin, Hong, Burke, Claire, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dong, Buwen, Freychet, Nicolas, Lott, Fraser C., Tett, Simon F. B., Sun, Ying, Hu, Ting, Zhang, Xuebin, Wan, Hui, Stott, Peter, Lu, Chunhui, Christidis, Nikolaos, Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan, Ciavarella, Andrew, Stott, Peter A., Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Hendon, Harry, Wang, Guomin, Lewis, Sophie C., Mallela, Jennie, Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, Mitchell, Dann, Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikos, Herring, Stephanie C., Hoell, Andrew, Kossin, James P., and Schreck, Carl J.

Published
2018

7. chapter 21: A 1-DAY EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT IN TASMANIA: PROCESS EVALUATION AND LONG TAIL ATTRIBUTION

Author

Tozer, Carly R., Risbey, James S., Grose, Michael R., Monselesan, Didier P., Squire, Dougal T., Black, Amanda S., Richardson, Doug, Sparrow, Sarah N., Li, Sihan, and Wallom, David

Subjects
Tasmania -- Environmental aspects, Rain -- Environmental aspects, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Attribution of an extreme magnitude I-day rainfall event in Hobart is inhibited by small sample size. For moderate magnitude Hobart daily rainfall extremes, models suggest that the associated extratropical lows [...]

Published
2020
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16. 29. SEVERE FROSTS IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN SEPTEMBER 2016: Human influence may have enhanced the circulation pattern that drives cold outbreaks and frost risk over southwest Western Australia in September 2016, but larger thermodynamic changes may have still made these events less likely

Author

Grose, Michael R., Black, Mitchell, Risbey, James S., Uhe, Peter, Hope, Pandora K., Haustein, Karsten, and Mitchell, Dann

Subjects
Frost -- Forecasts and trends -- Environmental aspects, Human-environment interactions, Extreme weather -- Forecasts and trends, Cold weather -- Forecasts and trends -- Environmental aspects, Market trend/market analysis, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

Introduction. The wheat belt of southwest Western Australia (SWWA) experienced several severe frosts just before harvest in September 2016, leading to a loss of one million tonnes of grain crops [...]

Published
2018
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28. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021

Author

Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Public Administration, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Física, and Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. STH - Sostenibilitat, Tecnologia i Humanisme

Subjects
climate change, earth system, global environmental change, global sustainability, environmental governance, sustainable development, Climate change, Canvis climàtics, Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Governabilitat mundial [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC]
Abstract

This is the fifth instalmentfrom the annual series10 New Insights in Climate Science, whichaims to synthesise and communicate the latest and most essential scientific findings on climate change. It is the result of a collaboration between Future Earth,Earth League and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). Thisreport constitutes a climate science year-in-review for journalists, policy makers, and the general public. A peer-reviewed academic article published in parallel to this policy report, providesanin-depth explanationof the ten insights,as well as a complete account of the reviewing process. These are the 2021ten New Insights in Climate Science: Stabilizing at 1.5°C warming is still possible, but immediate and drastic global action is required. Rapid growth in methane and nitrous oxide emissions put us on track for 2.7°C warming Megafires – climate change forces fire extremes to reach new dimensions with extreme impacts Climate tipping elements incur high-impact risks Global climate action must be just Supporting household behaviour changes is a crucial but often overlooked opportunity for climate action Political challenges impede effectiveness of carbon pricing Nature-based solutions are critical for the pathway to Paris – but look at the fine print Building resilience of marine ecosystems is achievable by climate-adapted conservation and management, and global stewardship Costs of climate change mitigation can be justified by the multiple immediate benefits to the health of humans and nature

Published
2021

29. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author

Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James

Abstract

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.

Published
2021
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30. Ten new insights in climate science 2021:A horizon scan

Author

Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James

Abstract

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

Published
2021

33. Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan

Author

Martin, Maria A., primary, Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Blenckner, Thorsten, additional, Bowen, Kathryn, additional, Brando, Paulo M., additional, Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, additional, Büchs, Milena, additional, Bustamante, Mercedes, additional, Chen, Deliang, additional, Cleugh, Helen, additional, Dasgupta, Purnamita, additional, Denton, Fatima, additional, Donges, Jonathan F., additional, Donkor, Felix Kwabena, additional, Duan, Hongbo, additional, Duarte, Carlos M., additional, Ebi, Kristie L., additional, Edwards, Clea M., additional, Engel, Anja, additional, Fisher, Eleanor, additional, Fuss, Sabine, additional, Gaertner, Juliana, additional, Gettelman, Andrew, additional, Girardin, Cécile A.J., additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Green, Jessica F., additional, Grose, Michael R., additional, Hashizume, Masahiro, additional, Hebden, Sophie, additional, Hepach, Helmke, additional, Hirota, Marina, additional, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, additional, Kojima, Satoshi, additional, Lele, Sharachchandra, additional, Lorek, Sylvia, additional, Lotze, Heike K., additional, Matthews, H. Damon, additional, McCauley, Darren, additional, Mebratu, Desta, additional, Mengis, Nadine, additional, Nolan, Rachael H., additional, Pihl, Erik, additional, Rahmstorf, Stefan, additional, Redman, Aaron, additional, Reid, Colleen E., additional, Rockström, Johan, additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Saunois, Marielle, additional, Sayer, Lizzie, additional, Schlosser, Peter, additional, Sioen, Giles B., additional, Spangenberg, Joachim H., additional, Stammer, Detlef, additional, Sterner, Thomas N.S., additional, Stevens, Nicola, additional, Thonicke, Kirsten, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, and Woodcock, James, additional

Published
2021
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42. Climate projections for ecologists

Author

Harris, Rebecca M.B., Grose, Michael R., Lee, Greg, Bindoff, Nathan L., Porfirio, Luciana, Fox-Hughes, Paul, Harris, Rebecca M.B., Grose, Michael R., Lee, Greg, Bindoff, Nathan L., Porfirio, Luciana, and Fox-Hughes, Paul

Abstract

Climate projections are essential for studying ecological responses to climate change, and their use is now common in ecology. However, the lack of integration between ecology and climate science has restricted understanding of the available climate data

Published
2014

43. Climate projections for ecologists

Author

Harris, Rebecca Mary B., primary, Grose, Michael R., additional, Lee, Greg, additional, Bindoff, Nathaniel L., additional, Porfirio, Luciana L., additional, and Fox‐Hughes, Paul, additional

Published
2014
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48. Precursors to Particles (P2P) at Cape Grim 2006: campaign overview

Author

Cainey, Jill M., primary, Keywood, Melita, additional, Grose, Michael R., additional, Krummel, Paul, additional, Galbally, Ian E., additional, Johnston, Paul, additional, Gillett, Rob W., additional, Meyer, Mick, additional, Fraser, Paul, additional, Steele, Paul, additional, Harvey, Mike, additional, Kreher, Karin, additional, Stein, Torsten, additional, Ibrahim, Ossama, additional, Ristovski, Zoran D., additional, Johnson, Graham, additional, Fletcher, Cathie A., additional, Bigg, E. Keith, additional, and Gras, John L., additional

Published
2007
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50. Performance of an empirical bias-correction of a high-resolution climate dataset.

Author

Bennett, James C., Grose, Michael R., Corney, Stuart P., White, Christopher J., Holz, Gregory K., Katzfey, Jack J., Post, David A., and Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

Subjects
*ATMOSPHERIC models, *EVAPORATIVE power, *RAINFALL, *SOLAR radiation, *ATMOSPHERIC temperature, *SIMULATION methods & models
Abstract

ABSTRACT We describe the method and performance of a bias-correction applied to high-resolution (˜10 km) simulations from a stretched-grid Regional Climate Model ( RCM) over Tasmania, Australia. The bias-correction is a quantile mapping of empirical cumulative frequency distributions. Corrections are applied at a daily time step to five variables: rainfall, potential evaporation (PE), solar radiation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Corrections are calculated independently for each season. We show that quantile mapping of empirical distributions can be highly effective in correcting biases in RCM outputs. Cross-validation shows biases are effectively reduced across the range of cumulative frequency distributions, with few exceptions. The bias-correction is not as effective at correcting biases for values at or near zero (e.g. in rainfall simulations), although even here the bias-correction improves biases evident in the uncorrected simulations. In addition, the bias-correction improves frequency characteristics of variables such as the number of rain days. We use a detrending technique to apply the bias-correction to 140-year time series of RCM variables. We show that the bias-correction effectively preserves long-term changes (e.g. to the mean and variance) to variables projected by the uncorrected RCM simulations. Correlations between key variables are also largely preserved, thus the bias-corrected outputs reflect the dynamics of the underlying RCM. However, the bias-corrected simulations still exhibit some of the deficiencies of the RCM simulations, e.g. the tendency to underestimate the magnitude and duration of large, multi-day rain events, and the tendency to underestimate the duration of dry spells. The bias-corrected simulations for six downscaled GCMs for the A2 and B1 emissions scenarios are available to researchers from . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2014
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