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Background Heavy reliance on container shipping during the COVID-19 pandemic with lockdown implementation and air travel bans placed substantial pressure on shipping crews and ports. Long waiting times at ports, substantial economic losses and massive supply chain disruption of essential and medical goods were observed. To minimise this for future pandemic preparedness, we explore the use of quarantining and testing of crews preboarding instead of quarantining at port calls or during voyages.Methods Using a microsimulation model of 10 000 vessels and 300 000 crew, we examine the effectiveness of nine predeparture control strategies in reducing COVID-19 outbreak sizes, from no control to the use of 7-day and 14-day quarantining, and addition of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or antigen rapid test (ART) testing. To assess different infection parameters, we explored three variants (Alpha, Delta and Omicron), four prevalences (0.1%, 0.5%, 1% and 2%) and three quarantine compliances (50%, 90% and 100%).Results Across the prevalences with no intervention, our modelled simulations estimate that approximately 3%, 15%, 28% and 47% of crews are infected, totalling around 9400, 44 900, 82 600 and 141 300 infections. At 2% prevalence, averaged across variants and compliances, when 7-day predeparture quarantining (7DQ) is introduced, 23 900 (range: 21 500–25 200) estimated cases are averted, rising up to 40 900 (40 200–41 600) for 14DQ. With additional predeparture PCR testing, this increases further to 102 100 (100 100–104 500) and 106 800 (106 100–108 100) respectively. Should ART testing be used instead, 92 600 (92 200–93 200) and 100 000 (98 900–101 100) estimated cases are averted. The use of predeparture PCR testing and PCR testing 1 week before departure has the greatest reduction at 108 200 (106 400–110 600) and 111 600 (110 500–113 000).Conclusion In our simulation model, we show that preboarding control measures can be effective in limiting outbreaks, reducing the number of active cases on marine vessels without access to adequate medical care while simultaneously reducing port congestion and facilitating for the greater global transport of essential goods.

Introduction: The transmission dynamics of the recent mpox outbreak highlights the lack of infrastructure available to rapidly respond to novel STI outbreaks, of which Asia and Oceania remains particularly susceptible. Here, we simulate outbreaks in this setting and propose the use of pre-emptive vaccination within the men who have sex with men (MSM) community before the arrival and establishment of the virus. Materials and methods: Using data driven heterogeneous sexual contact networks, we simulated outbreaks of mpox in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sydney. An individual based SEIR compartmental model was used to simulate epidemic trajectories and the impact of different vaccination uptakes was assessed in their ability to avert or suppress outbreaks upon the arrival of mpox within the MSM populations. Results: The highly dense sexual networks of Singapore and Sydney experience rapid outbreaks, with infection peaks occurring at day 41 and 23 respectively, compared to Hong Kong which occurs at day 77. Across the simulations with no vaccination, 68.2%–89.7% of the MSM community will become infected with mpox across the different cities, over a simulation period of 1 year. By implementing vaccination strategies, the infection rate across the cities can be reduced to as low as 3.1% of the population (range: 3.1%–82.2%) depending on the implementation and uptake of the vaccine. Vaccination is also extremely effective in slowing the start of the epidemic, delaying the epidemic peak by 36–50 days in Hong Kong, or even preventing the outbreak of mpox. Discussion: With extremely dense and well-connected sexual contact networks, where 65.2%–83.2% of the population are connected to a super-spreader in the different contact networks, pre-emptive or immediate vaccination upon identification of the first case is strongly recommended to help better manage the outbreak of mpox and prevent potential straining of healthcare systems.

BackgroundTransmission intensity for mosquito-borne diseases are highly heterogenous and multi-factorial. Understanding risk factors associated to disease transmission allow the optimization of vector control. This study sets out to understand and compare the combined anthropogenic and environmental risk factors of four major mosquito-borne diseases, dengue, malaria, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis in Thailand.MethodsAn integrated analysis of mosquito-borne diseases, meteorological and ambient air pollutants of 76 provinces of Thailand was conducted over 2003-2021. We explored the use of generalized linear models and generalized additive models to consider both linear and non-linear associations between meteorological factors, ambient air pollutants and mosquito-borne disease incidence. Different assumptions on spatio-temporal dependence and nonlinearity were considered through province-specific and panel models, as well as different spline functions. Disease-specific model evidence was assessed to select best-fit models for epidemiological inference downstream.ResultsAnalyses indicated several findings which can be generally applied to all diseases explored: (1) higher AH above mean values was positively associated with disease case counts (2) higher total precipitation above mean values was positively associated with disease case counts (3) extremely high temperatures were negatively associated with disease case counts (4) higher SO2 and PM2.5 surface concentrations were negatively associated with disease case counts. However, the relationships between disease and RH, non-extreme temperatures and CO surface concentration were more mixed, with directions of associations changing across the different diseases considered.ConclusionsThis study found protective and enhancing effects of meteorological and ambient air pollutant factors on mosquito-borne diseases burdens in Thailand. Further studies should employ these factors to understand and predict risk factors associated with mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Background: The prevention of radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) is very significant in ensuring a safe radiation treatment and high quality of life. Aims and Objectives: The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation of physical and biological effective dose (BED) metrics with liver toxicity from hypo-fractionated liver radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: 41 hypo-fractionated patients in 2 groups were evaluated for classic radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) and chronic RILD, respectively. Patients were graded for effective toxicity (post-treatment minus pre-treatment) using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) v4.0. Physical dose (PD) distributions were converted to BED. The V10Gy, V15Gy, V20Gy, V25Gy and V30Gy physical dose-volume metrics were used in the analysis together with their respective BED-converted metrics of V16.7Gy3, V30Gy3, V46.7Gy3, V66.7Gy3 and V90Gy3. All levels were normalized to their respective patient normal liver volumes (NLV) and evaluated for correlation to RILD. Results were measured quantitatively using R2 regression analysis. Results: The classic RILD group had median follow-up time of 1.9 months and the average PD-NLV normalized V10Gy, V15Gy, V20Gy, V25Gy and V30Gy metrics per grade were plotted against RILD yielding R2 correlations of 0.84, 0.72, 0.73, 0.65 and 0.70, respectively while the BED-volume metrics of V16.7Gy3, V30Gy3, V46.7Gy3, V66.7Gy3 and V90Gy3 resulted in correlation values of 0.84, 0.74, 0.66, 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. BED compared to PD showed a statistically significant (p=.03) increase in R2 for the classic RILD group. Chronic RILD group had median follow-up time of 12.3 months and the average PD-NLV normalized V10Gy, V15Gy, V20Gy, V25Gy and V30Gy metrics per grade were plotted against RILD grade yielding R2 correlations of 0.48, 0.92, 0.88, 0.90 and 0.99 while the BED-volume metrics of V16.7Gy3, V30Gy3, V46.7Gy3, V66.7Gy3 and V90Gy3 resulted in correlation values of 0.43, 0.94, 0.99, 0.21 and 0.00, respectively. Conclusion: The strong correlations of the V10Gy and V15Gy PD-volume metrics as well as the V16.7Gy3(BED of V10Gy) to both classic and chronic RILD imply the appropriateness of the current 15Gy evaluation level for liver toxicity with hypo-fractionated treatments.

Abstract Background Squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC) represents an array of disease processes with a generally unfavorable prognosis. Inflammation plays an important role in tumor development and response to therapy. We performed a retrospective analysis of HNSCC patients to explore the relationship of the lymphocyte and neutrophil counts, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), local control (LC) and distant control (DC). Materials/methods All patients received definitive treatment for cancers of the oropharynx or larynx between 2006–2015. Neutrophil and lymphocyte counts were collected pre-, during-, and post-treatment. The correlations of patient, tumor, and biological factors to OS, CSS, LC and DC were assessed. Results 196 patients met our inclusion criteria; 171 patients were Stage III or IV. Median follow-up was 2.7 years. A higher neutrophil count at all treatment time points was predictive of poor OS with the pre-treatment neutrophil count and overall neutrophil nadir additionally predictive of DC. Higher pre-treatment and overall NLR correlated to worse OS and DC, respectively. Conclusion A higher pre-treatment neutrophil count correlates to poor OS, CSS and DC. Lymphocyte counts were not found to impact survival or tumor control. Higher pre-treatment NLR is prognostic of poor OS.

Background: International vertical health financing programmes risk functioning in parallel with existing domestic funding in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), leading to inefficient service delivery and concomitant poor health outcomes. Aim: We assessed the opportunities offered by digitalised diagnostics (ConnDx) to target and monitor health funds to those in need objectively and transparently. Setting: ConnDx was rolled out in five private health facilities in Kisumu, Kenya. Methods: The ConnDx process was codeveloped with the local Department of Health of Kisumu. We used the quantitative data generated by ConnDx. We also calculated the costs for ConnDx and standard care to assess potential cost reductions. Results: In total, 2199 malaria cases were detected among 11 689 patients with fever. ConnDx allowed for the identification of malaria hotspots, semi-real-time assessment of patient health seeking behaviour across facilities and insights in doctor’s prescription behaviours. Based on these insights, we estimated a 25% reduction in costs can be realised, while simultaneously better quality indicators can be monitored. Conclusion: The concept of ConnDx can be used for any medical condition that can be diagnosed in a digital manner and linked to mobile payment systems. The generated data can contribute to better quality services for individual patients while at the same time support local health policy makers and managers for more targeted interventions. Contribution: The ConnDx approach can help decision makers in LMICs to channel disease-specific funds to the right patients for the right disease at the right time, which can potentially accelerate the way to universal health coverage.

Abstract Suicide prevention is a complex and context‐dependent challenge. About 75% of deaths by suicide occur in low‐ and middle‐income countries; yet, most current suicide prevention strategies build upon data from high‐income countries (HIC). The Kisumu County Government (KCG) in Kenya recognized the need for a suicide prevention action plan. In the absence of a Kenyan national suicide strategy, it also did not solely depend on recommendations from HIC. The KCG therefore convened a multidisciplinary workgroup with stakeholders from various sectors that led the development of the Kisumu County Suicide Prevention Action Plan (KCSPAP). The team utilized a mixed‐method approach (literature review, a desk review of mental health indicators and death certificates, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews) identifying the following: (a) magnitude and variations of suicide cases (higher number of suicide completions compared to attempts; the leading method was organophosphate poisoning though the suicide method often was not specified); (b) protective and risk factors (male gender, being between 19 and 45 years of age, and being married); (c) community perceptions of suicide (taboo topic; associated with negative spirits; community members were divided on suicide decriminalization); (d) potential solutions (need for data collection, awareness creation; scale‐up of traditional and nontraditional mental health approaches). Given the importance of a public health perspective on suicide prevention, the data in the KCSPAP are organized in a public health prevention framework that builds on a data collection framework. The KCSPAP was handed over to the KCG in mid‐2020; different recommendations have been implemented since. The KCSPAP is an example of policymaking based on local knowledge. This homegrown policymaking approach has multiple benefits and can be used by stakeholders locally and in other countries.

PURPOSENearly half of Kenyan women with breast cancer present with advanced disease—owing partially to limited patient education and screening limitations in low- and middle-income countries. With increasing access to nurse-led cervical cancer screening (CCS) in government clinics in Kenya, we investigated provider-perceived barriers and facilitators to integrating clinical breast examinations (CBEs) with ongoing CCS programs in Kisumu County, Kenya.METHODSCCS providers within the Ministry of Health Clinics in Kisumu County, Kenya, were recruited to participate in a two-phase, sequential, mixed methods study. Knowledge of CBE guidelines was assessed with a questionnaire. Providers with significant CCS and CBE experience then completed a one-on-one interview discussing barriers and facilitators to integration.RESULTSSixty-nine providers from 20 randomly selected facilities participated in the survey. Providers all agreed that breast cancer screening was very important. Although 93% said that they routinely offered CBEs, only 22% of these providers screened at least eight of their last 10 patients. Forty-four percent identified four or more of five signs and symptoms of breast cancer, and 33% identified four to five risk factors. Although providers showed enthusiasm for integration of CBEs into their practices, barriers were identified and grouped into four themes: (1) fragmentation of services, (2) staffing shortage and inadequate on-the-job training, (3) limited space and referral system challenges, and (4) limited patient awareness on need for cancer screening.CONCLUSIONAddressing providers' concerns by providing routine on-the-job clinical training, improving staffing shortages, strengthening the diagnostic and treatment referral pathway, and increasing patient education are some of the first steps in facilitating integration of CBEs with CCS services in primary care clinics in Kenya.

IntroductionIn Africa almost half of healthcare services are delivered through private sector providers. These are often underused in national public health responses. To support and accelerate the public sector's COVID-19 response, we facilitated recruitment of additional private sector capacity by initiating a public-private partnership (PPP) in Kisumu County, Kenya. In this manuscript we demonstrate this PPP's performance.MethodsCOVID-19 diagnostic testing formed the basis for a PPP between Kenyan Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Department of Health Kisumu County, PharmAccess Foundation, and local faith-based and private healthcare facilities: COVID-Dx. First phase COVID-Dx was implemented from June 01, 2020, to March 31, 2021 in Kisumu County, Kenya. Trained laboratory technologists in participating healthcare facilities collected nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal samples from patients meeting the Kenyan MoH COVID-19 case definition. Healthcare workers in participating facilities collected patient clinical data using a digitized MoH COVID-19 Case Identification Form. We shared aggregated results from these data via (semi-) live dashboards with all relevant stakeholders through their mobile phones and tablets. Statistical analyses were performed using Stata 16 to inform project processes.ResultsNine private facilities participated in the project. A patient trajectory was developed from case identification to result reporting, all steps supported by a semi-real time digital dashboard. A total of 4,324 PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 were added to the public response, identifying 425 positives, accounting for 16% of all COVID-19 tests performed in the County over the given time-period. Geo-mapped and time-tagged information on incident cases was depicted on Google maps through PowerBI-dashboards and fed back to policymakers for informed rapid decision making. Preferential COVID-19 testing was performed on health workers at risk, with 1,009 tests performed (up to 43% of all County health workforce).ConclusionWe demonstrate feasibility of rapidly increasing the public health sector COVID-19 response through coordinated private sector efforts in an African setting. Our PPP intervention in Kisumu, Kenya was based on a joint testing strategy and demonstrated that semi-real time digitalization of patient trajectories can gain significant efficiencies, linking public and private healthcare efforts, increasing transparency, support better quality health services and informing policy makers to target interventions.

Abstract Background Cervical cancer screening is slowly transitioning from Pappanicolaou cytologic screening to primary Visual Inspection with Acetic Acid (VIA) or HPV testing as an effort to enhance early detection and treatment. However, an effective triage tests needed to decide who among the VIA or HPV positive women should receive further diagnostic evaluation to avoid unnecessary colposcopy referrals is still lacking. Evidence from experimental studies have shown potential usefulness of Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen (SCC Ag), Macrophage Colony Stimulating Factor (M-CSF), Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF), MicroRNA, p16INKa / ki-67, HPV E6/E7/mRNA, and DNA methylation biomarkers in detecting premalignant cervical neoplasia. Given the variation in performance, and scanty review studies in this field, this systematic review described the diagnostic performance of some selected assays to detect high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) with histology as gold standard. Methods We systematically searched articles published in English between 2012 and 2020 using key words from PubMed/Medline and SCOPUS with two reviewers assessing study eligibility, and risk of bias. We performed a descriptive presentation of the performance of each of the selected assays for the detection of CIN2 + . Results Out of 298 citations retrieved, 58 articles were included. Participants with cervical histology yielded CIN2+ proportion range of 13.7–88.4%. The diagnostic performance of the assays to detect CIN2+ was; 1) SCC-Ag: range sensitivity of 78.6–81.2%, specificity 74–100%. 2) M-CSF: sensitivity of 68–87.7%, specificity 64.7–94% 3) VEGF: sensitivity of 56–83.5%, specificity 74.6–96%. 4) MicroRNA: sensitivity of 52.9–67.3%, specificity 76.4–94.4%. 5) p16INKa / ki-67: sensitivity of 50–100%, specificity 39–90.4%. 6) HPV E6/E7/mRNA: sensitivity of 65–100%, specificity 42.7–90.2%, and 7) DNA methylation: sensitivity of 59.7–92.9%, specificity 67–98%. Conclusion Overall, the reported test performance and the receiving operating characteristics curves implies that implementation of p16ink4a/ki-67 assay as a triage for HPV positive women to be used at one visit with subsequent cryotherapy treatment is feasible. For the rest of assays, more robust clinical translation studies with larger consecutive cohorts of women participants is recommended.

In this essay, I apply Lowe’s theory of rational agency to God’s causal activity. I argue that Lowe’s account fits well the traditional notions that God acts in the world for reasons. In contrast to Lowe’s analysis of human causal agency, I argue that in the divine case, reasons for acting are not constituted by needs. They are constituted by God’s desires or plans. The fit between Lowe’s account of causal agency and the contours of divine causal agency motivate an argument in favor of Lowe’s theory. Any philosopher who is a theist ought to think Lowe’s account is likely to be true.