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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g., those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of the initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly), and should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap, but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Background Cannabinoids are increasingly used in the management of chronic pain. Although analgesic potential has been demonstrated, cannabinoids interact with a range of bodily functions that are also influenced by chronic pain medications, including opioids. Objective We performed a scoping review of literature on the pharmacodynamic effects following the co-administration of cannabinoids and opioids. Methods We systematically searched EMBASE, PubMed, and PsycINFO for studies that experimentally investigated the co-effects of cannabinoids and opioids in human subjects. Available evidence was summarized by clinical population and organ system. A risk of bias assessment was performed. Results A total of 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. Study populations included patients with chronic non-cancer and cancer pain on long-term opioid regimens and healthy young adults without prior exposure to opioids who were subject to experimental nociceptive stimuli. Commonly administered cannabinoid agents included Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol and/or cannabidiol. Co-administration of cannabinoids and opioids did not consistently improve pain outcomes; however, sleep and mood benefits were observed in chronic pain patients. Increased somnolence, memory and attention impairment, dizziness, gait disturbance, and nauseousness and vomiting were noted with co-administration of cannabinoids and opioids. Cardiorespiratory effects following co-administration appeared to vary according to duration of exposure, population type, and prior exposure to cannabinoids and opioids. Conclusions The available evidence directly investigating the pharmacodynamic effects following co-administration of cannabinoids and opioids for non-analgesic outcomes is scarce and suffers from a lack of methodological reporting. As such, further research in this area with comprehensive methodologic reporting is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was characterised by huge ice sheets covering the Northern Hemisphere, especially over North America, and by its cold climate. Previous authors have performed numerical simulations of the LGM to better understand coupled climate–ice sheet systems. However, the results of such simulations are sensitive to many model parameters. Here, we perform a 200-member ensemble of simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets and climate of the LGM with a coupled ice sheet–atmosphere–slab ocean model (FAMOUS-BISICLES) to explore sensitivities of the coupled climate–ice system to 16 uncertain parameters. In the ensemble of simulations, the global mean surface temperature is primarily controlled by the combination of parameters in the large-scale condensation scheme and the cumulus convection scheme. In simulations with plausible LGM global mean surface temperatures, we find that the albedo parameters have only a small impact on the Greenland ice volume due to the limited area of surface ablation associated with the cold climate. Instead, the basal sliding law controls the ice volume by affecting ice transport from the interior to the margin. On the other hand, like the Greenland ice sheet in future climate change, the LGM North American ice sheet volume is controlled by parameters in the snow and ice albedo scheme. Few of our simulations produce an extensive North American ice sheet when the global temperature is above 12 °C. Based on constraints on the LGM global mean surface temperature, the ice volume and the southern extent of the North American ice sheet, we select 16 acceptable simulations. These simulations lack the southern extent of ice compared to reconstructions, but they show reasonable performance on the ice sheet configuration and ice streams facing Baffin Bay and the Arctic Ocean. The strong sensitivities of the North American ice sheet to albedo at the LGM may imply a potential constraint on the future Greenland ice sheet by constraining the albedo schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)--key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO2 forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.

Greenhouse gases and aerosols play a major role in controlling global climate change. Greenhouse gases drive a radiative imbalance which warms the ocean, while aerosols cool the ocean. Since 1980, the effective radiation felt by the planet due to anthropogenic aerosols has leveled off, global ocean cooling due to aerosols has decelerated, and greenhouse gas‐driven ocean warming has accelerated. We explore the deceleration of aerosol‐driven ocean cooling by quantifying a time‐ and spatially varying ocean heat uptake efficiency, defined as the change in the rate of global ocean heat storage per degree of cooling surface temperature. In aerosol‐only simulations, ocean heat uptake efficiency has decreased by 43 ± 14% since 1980. The tropics and sub‐tropics have driven this decrease, while the coldest fraction of the ocean continues to sustain cooling and high ocean heat uptake efficiency. Our results identify a growing trend toward less efficient ocean cooling due to aerosols. Plain Language Summary: The composition of the atmosphere has a major impact on our climate. Greenhouse gases warm the planet, while aerosols (i.e., suspensions of particles in the atmosphere) cool the planet, and most of this change is absorbed by the oceans. Since 1980, the rate of cooling of the planet due to aerosols has plateaued. In the past few decades, the ocean has begun to equilibrate to this change, and this work explores where and when this equilibration has occurred in the ocean based on global climate models. To understand this change, we use an "ocean heat uptake efficiency" metric which describes how much additional heat builds up in the ocean for a given degree of surface temperature gain (or loss). We find that the ocean is cooling more slowly given a degree of surface cooling due to aerosols compared to the pre‐1980s. This change is largely driven by the tropics and sub‐tropics, where the ocean has stopped cooling in response to aerosol‐driven negative surface temperatures. Polar and sub‐polar regions, however, continue to cool due to aerosols. These changes are occurring alongside accelerating greenhouse gas‐driven warming, suggesting that the relative role of aerosols in cooling our climate is weakening. Key Points: Since 1980, aerosol‐driven ocean cooling has decelerated substantially, alongside a drop in ocean heat uptake efficiencyThe drop in ocean heat uptake efficiency is limited to the tropics, which may have equilibrated to ongoing aerosol‐driven radiative forcingAir‐sea fluxes into the coldest fraction of the ocean continue to offset greenhouse gas‐driven ocean warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]