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1. Uncertainty in humanities network visualization

Author

Melanie Conroy, Christina Gillmann, Francis Harvey, Tamara Mchedlidze, Sara Irina Fabrikant, Florian Windhager, Gerik Scheuermann, Timothy R. Tangherlini, Christopher N. Warren, Scott B. Weingart, Malte Rehbein, Katy Börner, Kimmo Elo, Stefan Jänicke, Andreas Kerren, Martin Nöllenburg, Tim Dwyer, Øyvind Eide, Stephen Kobourov, and Gregor Betz

Subjects
network visualization, mathematical uncertainty, uncertainty in networks, digital humanities, visual variables, historical networks, Communication. Mass media, P87-96
Abstract

Network visualization is one of the most widely used tools in digital humanities research. The idea of uncertain or “fuzzy” data is also a core notion in digital humanities research. Yet network visualizations in digital humanities do not always prominently represent uncertainty. In this article, we present a mathematical and logical model of uncertainty as a range of values which can be used in network visualizations. We review some of the principles for visualizing uncertainty of different kinds, visual variables that can be used for representing uncertainty, and how these variables have been used to represent different data types in visualizations drawn from a range of non-humanities fields like climate science and bioinformatics. We then provide examples of two diagrams: one in which the variables displaying degrees of uncertainty are integrated/pinto the graph and one in which glyphs are added to represent data certainty and uncertainty. Finally, we discuss how probabilistic data and what-if scenarios could be used to expand the representation of uncertainty in humanities network visualizations.

Published
2024
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2. Probabilistic coherence, logical consistency, and Bayesian learning: Neural language models as epistemic agents.

Author

Gregor Betz and Kyle Richardson

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

It is argued that suitably trained neural language models exhibit key properties of epistemic agency: they hold probabilistically coherent and logically consistent degrees of belief, which they can rationally revise in the face of novel evidence. To this purpose, we conduct computational experiments with rankers: T5 models [Raffel et al. 2020] that are pretrained on carefully designed synthetic corpora. Moreover, we introduce a procedure for eliciting a model's degrees of belief, and define numerical metrics that measure the extent to which given degrees of belief violate (probabilistic, logical, and Bayesian) rationality constraints. While pretrained rankers are found to suffer from global inconsistency (in agreement with, e.g., [Jang et al. 2021]), we observe that subsequent self-training on auto-generated texts allows rankers to gradually obtain a probabilistically coherent belief system that is aligned with logical constraints. In addition, such self-training is found to have a pivotal role in rational evidential learning, too, for it seems to enable rankers to propagate a novel evidence item through their belief systems, successively re-adjusting individual degrees of belief. All this, we conclude, confirms the Rationality Hypothesis, i.e., the claim that suitable trained NLMs may exhibit advanced rational skills. We suggest that this hypothesis has empirical, yet also normative and conceptual ramifications far beyond the practical linguistic problems NLMs have originally been designed to solve.

Published
2023
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3. Judgment aggregation, discursive dilemma and reflective equilibrium: Neural language models as self-improving doxastic agents

Author

Gregor Betz and Kyle Richardson

Subjects
neural language model (NLM), judgment aggregation, reflective equilibrium, text generation, logical consistency, Electronic computers. Computer science, QA75.5-76.95
Abstract

Neural language models (NLMs) are susceptible to producing inconsistent output. This paper proposes a new diagnosis as well as a novel remedy for NLMs' incoherence. We train NLMs on synthetic text corpora that are created by simulating text production in a society. For diagnostic purposes, we explicitly model the individual belief systems of artificial agents (authors) who produce corpus texts. NLMs, trained on those texts, can be shown to aggregate the judgments of individual authors during pre-training according to sentence-wise vote ratios (roughly, reporting frequencies), which inevitably leads to so-called discursive dilemmas: aggregate judgments are inconsistent even though all individual belief states are consistent. As a remedy for such inconsistencies, we develop a self-training procedure—inspired by the concept of reflective equilibrium—that effectively reduces the extent of logical incoherence in a model's belief system, corrects global mis-confidence, and eventually allows the model to settle on a new, epistemically superior belief state. Thus, social choice theory helps to understand why NLMs are prone to produce inconsistencies; epistemology suggests how to get rid of them.

Published
2022
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4. Applying argumentation to structure and visualize multi-dimensional opinion spaces

Author

Gregor Betz, Michael Hamann, Tamara Mchedlidze, and Sophie von Schmettow

Subjects
Electronic computers. Computer science, QA75.5-76.95, Computational linguistics. Natural language processing, P98-98.5
Abstract

This paper presents OpMAP: a tool for visualizing large scale, multi-dimensional opinion spaces as geographic maps. OpMAP represents opinions as labelings on a structured deductive argumentation framework. It uses probabilistic degrees of justification and Bayesian coherence measures to calculate how strongly any two opinions cohere with each other. The opinion sample is, accordingly, represented as a weighted graph, a so-called opinion graph, with opinion vectors serving as nodes and coherence values as edge weights. OpMAP partitions the nodes of the opinion graph by using clustering methods. Finally, the graph is visualized as a geographic map using a method based on a particular (e.g., force-directed) layout.

Published
2018
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5. Tagungsbericht: Von schwarz-gelben Fußballgottesdiensten und Technopartys in der Kneipe: 'Hybridisierung inszenierter Ereignisse. Zur Diskussion zeitgeistiger Veranstaltungen'

Author

Jasmin Wittkowski and Gregor Betz

Subjects
Events, Hybridität, Modernisierung, sozialer Wandel, Ethnografie, Wissenssoziologie, Social sciences (General), H1-99
Abstract

Neue Ereignisformate der letzten Jahre – seien dies populärkulturelle Events, private Feste und Feiern, politische Ereignisse, wissenschaftliche Konferenzformate etc. – zeichnen sich oftmals aus durch eine gezielte Kombination und Durchmischung von Ereignissen verschiedener kultureller Bereiche. Diesen hybriden Phänomenen widmeten sich die Referierenden im Rahmen der internationalen Tagung "Hybridisierung inszenierter Ereignisse. Zur Diskussion zeitgeistiger Veranstaltungen", ausgerichtet am 8. und 9. April 2016 in Dortmund. Theoretisch-konzeptuelle Überlegungen fanden dabei ebenso Eingang wie Betrachtungen aus historischer und zeitgenössischer Perspektive. Schwerpunkte waren unter anderem die Hybridisierung in Szenen und des virtuellen Raums sowie die Neudeutung traditionaler Rituale und Anlässe. Neben deren Zusammenfassung zeichnen wir in diesem Tagungsbericht den während der Diskussionen geführten Versuch nach, das weite und diverse Feld uneindeutiger, durchmischter Ereignisse einzugrenzen und eine Definition auszuloten. URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs1603174

Published
2016

8. Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models.

Author

Aarohi Srivastava, Abhinav Rastogi, Abhishek Rao, Abu Awal Md Shoeb, Abubakar Abid, Adam Fisch, Adam R. Brown, Adam Santoro, Aditya Gupta, Adrià Garriga-Alonso, Agnieszka Kluska, Aitor Lewkowycz, Akshat Agarwal, Alethea Power, Alex Ray, Alex Warstadt, Alexander W. Kocurek, Ali Safaya, Ali Tazarv, Alice Xiang, Alicia Parrish, Allen Nie, Aman Hussain, Amanda Askell, Amanda Dsouza, Ambrose Slone, Ameet Rahane, Anantharaman S. Iyer, Anders Andreassen, Andrea Madotto, Andrea Santilli, Andreas Stuhlmüller, Andrew M. Dai, Andrew La, Andrew K. Lampinen, Andy Zou, Angela Jiang, Angelica Chen, Anh Vuong, Animesh Gupta, Anna Gottardi, Antonio Norelli, Anu Venkatesh, Arash Gholamidavoodi, Arfa Tabassum, Arul Menezes, Arun Kirubarajan, Asher Mullokandov, Ashish Sabharwal, Austin Herrick, Avia Efrat, Aykut Erdem, Ayla Karakas, B. Ryan Roberts, Bao Sheng Loe, Barret Zoph, Bartlomiej Bojanowski, Batuhan özyurt, Behnam Hedayatnia, Behnam Neyshabur, Benjamin Inden, Benno Stein 0001, Berk Ekmekci, Bill Yuchen Lin, Blake Howald, Bryan Orinion, Cameron Diao, Cameron Dour, Catherine Stinson, Cedrick Argueta, Cèsar Ferri Ramírez, Chandan Singh, Charles Rathkopf, Chenlin Meng, Chitta Baral, Chiyu Wu, Chris Callison-Burch, Chris Waites, Christian Voigt, Christopher D. Manning, Christopher Potts, Cindy Ramirez, Clara E. Rivera, Clemencia Siro, Colin Raffel, Courtney Ashcraft, Cristina Garbacea, Damien Sileo, Dan Garrette, Dan Hendrycks, Dan Kilman, Dan Roth, Daniel Freeman, Daniel Khashabi, Daniel Levy, Daniel Moseguí González, Danielle Perszyk, Danny Hernandez, Danqi Chen 0001, Daphne Ippolito, Dar Gilboa, David Dohan, David Drakard, David Jurgens, Debajyoti Datta, Deep Ganguli, Denis Emelin, Denis Kleyko, Deniz Yuret, Derek Chen, Derek Tam, Dieuwke Hupkes, Diganta Misra, Dilyar Buzan, Dimitri Coelho Mollo, Diyi Yang, Dong-Ho Lee, Dylan Schrader, Ekaterina Shutova, Ekin Dogus Cubuk, Elad Segal, Eleanor Hagerman, Elizabeth Barnes, Elizabeth Donoway, Ellie Pavlick, Emanuele Rodolà, Emma Lam, Eric Chu, Eric Tang, Erkut Erdem, Ernie Chang, Ethan A. Chi, Ethan Dyer, Ethan J. Jerzak, Ethan Kim, Eunice Engefu Manyasi, Evgenii Zheltonozhskii, Fanyue Xia, Fatemeh Siar, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Francesca Happé, François Chollet, Frieda Rong, Gaurav Mishra, Genta Indra Winata, Gerard de Melo, Germán Kruszewski, Giambattista Parascandolo, Giorgio Mariani, Gloria Wang, Gonzalo Jaimovitch-López, Gregor Betz, Guy Gur-Ari, Hana Galijasevic, Hannah Kim 0010, Hannah Rashkin, Hannaneh Hajishirzi, Harsh Mehta, Hayden Bogar, Henry Shevlin, Hinrich Schütze, Hiromu Yakura, Hongming Zhang 0009, Hugh Mee Wong, Ian Ng, Isaac Noble, Jaap Jumelet, Jack Geissinger, Jackson Kernion, Jacob Hilton, Jaehoon Lee 0001, Jaime Fernández Fisac, James B. Simon, James Koppel, James Zheng, James Zou 0001, Jan Kocon, Jana Thompson, Janelle Wingfield, Jared Kaplan, Jarema Radom, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein, Jason Phang, Jason Wei, Jason Yosinski, Jekaterina Novikova, Jelle Bosscher, Jennifer Marsh, Jeremy Kim, Jeroen Taal, Jesse H. Engel, Jesujoba Alabi, Jiacheng Xu, Jiaming Song, Jillian Tang, Joan Waweru, John Burden, John Miller 0001, John U. Balis, Jonathan Batchelder, Jonathan Berant, Jörg Frohberg, Jos Rozen, José Hernández-Orallo, Joseph Boudeman, Joseph Guerr, Joseph Jones, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Joshua S. Rule, Joyce Chua, Kamil Kanclerz, Karen Livescu, Karl Krauth, Karthik Gopalakrishnan 0001, Katerina Ignatyeva, Katja Markert, Kaustubh D. Dhole, Kevin Gimpel, Kevin Omondi, Kory Mathewson, Kristen Chiafullo, Ksenia Shkaruta, Kumar Shridhar, Kyle McDonell, Kyle Richardson 0001, Laria Reynolds, Leo Gao, Li Zhang 0039, Liam Dugan, Lianhui Qin, Lidia Contreras Ochando, Louis-Philippe Morency, Luca Moschella, Lucas Lam, Lucy Noble, Ludwig Schmidt, Luheng He, Luis Oliveros Colón, Luke Metz, Lütfi Kerem Senel, Maarten Bosma, Maarten Sap, Maartje ter Hoeve, Maheen Farooqi, Manaal Faruqui, Mantas Mazeika, Marco Baturan, Marco Marelli, Marco Maru, María José Ramírez-Quintana, Marie Tolkiehn, Mario Giulianelli, Martha Lewis, Martin Potthast, Matthew L. Leavitt, Matthias Hagen, Mátyás Schubert, Medina Baitemirova, Melody Arnaud, Melvin McElrath, Michael A. Yee, Michael Cohen, Michael Gu, Michael I. Ivanitskiy, Michael Starritt, Michael Strube 0001, Michal Swedrowski, Michele Bevilacqua, Michihiro Yasunaga, Mihir Kale, Mike Cain, Mimee Xu, Mirac Suzgun, Mitch Walker, Mo Tiwari, Mohit Bansal, Moin Aminnaseri, Mor Geva, Mozhdeh Gheini, Mukund Varma T., Nanyun Peng, Nathan A. Chi, Nayeon Lee, Neta Gur-Ari Krakover, Nicholas Cameron 0001, Nicholas Roberts, Nick Doiron, Nicole Martinez, Nikita Nangia, Niklas Deckers, Niklas Muennighoff, Nitish Shirish Keskar, Niveditha Iyer, Noah Constant, Noah Fiedel, Nuan Wen, Oliver Zhang, Omar Agha, Omar Elbaghdadi, Omer Levy, Owain Evans, Pablo Antonio Moreno Casares, Parth Doshi, Pascale Fung, Paul Pu Liang, Paul Vicol, Pegah Alipoormolabashi, Peiyuan Liao, Percy Liang, Peter Chang, Peter Eckersley, Phu Mon Htut, Pinyu Hwang, Piotr Milkowski, Piyush Patil, Pouya Pezeshkpour, Priti Oli, Qiaozhu Mei, Qing Lyu 0001, Qinlang Chen 0001, Rabin Banjade, Rachel Etta Rudolph, Raefer Gabriel, Rahel Habacker, Ramon Risco, Raphaël Millière, Rhythm Garg, Richard Barnes 0002, Rif A. Saurous, Riku Arakawa, Robbe Raymaekers, Robert Frank 0001, Rohan Sikand, Roman Novak, Roman Sitelew, Ronan LeBras, Rosanne Liu, Rowan Jacobs, Rui Zhang 0037, Ruslan Salakhutdinov, Ryan Chi, Ryan Lee, Ryan Stovall, Ryan Teehan, Rylan Yang, Sahib Singh, Saif M. Mohammad, Sajant Anand, Sam Dillavou, Sam Shleifer, Sam Wiseman, Samuel Gruetter, Samuel R. Bowman, Samuel S. Schoenholz, Sanghyun Han, Sanjeev Kwatra, Sarah A. Rous, Sarik Ghazarian, Sayan Ghosh 0004, Sean Casey, Sebastian Bischoff 0001, Sebastian Gehrmann, Sebastian Schuster, Sepideh Sadeghi, Shadi Hamdan, Sharon Zhou, Shashank Srivastava, Sherry Shi, Shikhar Singh, Shima Asaadi, Shixiang Shane Gu, Shubh Pachchigar, Shubham Toshniwal, Shyam Upadhyay, Shyamolima (Shammie) Debnath, Siamak Shakeri, Simon Thormeyer, Simone Melzi, Siva Reddy, Sneha Priscilla Makini, Soo-Hwan Lee, Spencer Torene, Sriharsha Hatwar, Stanislas Dehaene, Stefan Divic, Stefano Ermon, Stella Biderman, Stephanie Lin, Stephen Prasad, Steven T. Piantadosi, Stuart M. Shieber, Summer Misherghi, Svetlana Kiritchenko, Swaroop Mishra, Tal Linzen, Tal Schuster, Tao Li 0039, Tao Yu 0009, Tariq Ali, Tatsu Hashimoto, Te-Lin Wu, Théo Desbordes, Theodore Rothschild, Thomas Phan, Tianle Wang 0009, Tiberius Nkinyili, Timo Schick, Timofei Kornev, Titus Tunduny, Tobias Gerstenberg, Trenton Chang, Trishala Neeraj, Tushar Khot, Tyler Shultz, Uri Shaham 0002, Vedant Misra, Vera Demberg, Victoria Nyamai, Vikas Raunak, Vinay V. Ramasesh, Vinay Uday Prabhu, Vishakh Padmakumar, Vivek Srikumar, William Fedus, William Saunders, William Zhang, Wout Vossen, Xiang Ren 0001, Xiaoyu Tong, Xinran Zhao, Xinyi Wu, Xudong Shen, Yadollah Yaghoobzadeh, Yair Lakretz, Yangqiu Song, Yasaman Bahri, Yejin Choi 0001, Yichi Yang, Yiding Hao, Yifu Chen, Yonatan Belinkov, Yu Hou, Yufang Hou 0001, Yuntao Bai, Zachary Seid, Zhuoye Zhao, Zijian Wang 0002, Zijie J. Wang, Zirui Wang, and Ziyi Wu

Published
2023

10. Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models.

Author

Aarohi Srivastava, Abhinav Rastogi, Abhishek Rao, Abu Awal Md Shoeb, Abubakar Abid, Adam Fisch, Adam R. Brown, Adam Santoro, Aditya Gupta, Adrià Garriga-Alonso, Agnieszka Kluska, Aitor Lewkowycz, Akshat Agarwal, Alethea Power, Alex Ray, Alex Warstadt, Alexander W. Kocurek, Ali Safaya, Ali Tazarv, Alice Xiang, Alicia Parrish, Allen Nie, Aman Hussain, Amanda Askell, Amanda Dsouza, Ambrose Slone, Ameet Rahane, Anantharaman S. Iyer, Anders Andreassen, Andrea Madotto, Andrea Santilli, Andreas Stuhlmüller, Andrew M. Dai, Andrew La, Andrew K. Lampinen, Andy Zou, Angela Jiang, Angelica Chen, Anh Vuong, Animesh Gupta, Anna Gottardi, Antonio Norelli, Anu Venkatesh, Arash Gholamidavoodi, Arfa Tabassum, Arul Menezes, Arun Kirubarajan, Asher Mullokandov, Ashish Sabharwal, Austin Herrick, Avia Efrat, Aykut Erdem, Ayla Karakas, B. Ryan Roberts, Bao Sheng Loe, Barret Zoph, Bartlomiej Bojanowski, Batuhan özyurt, Behnam Hedayatnia, Behnam Neyshabur, Benjamin Inden, Benno Stein 0001, Berk Ekmekci, Bill Yuchen Lin, Blake Howald, Bryan Orinion, Cameron Diao, Cameron Dour, Catherine Stinson, Cedrick Argueta, Cèsar Ferri Ramírez, Chandan Singh, Charles Rathkopf, Chenlin Meng, Chitta Baral, Chiyu Wu, Chris Callison-Burch, Chris Waites, Christian Voigt, Christopher D. Manning, Christopher Potts, Cindy Ramirez, Clara E. Rivera, Clemencia Siro, Colin Raffel, Courtney Ashcraft, Cristina Garbacea, Damien Sileo, Dan Garrette, Dan Hendrycks, Dan Kilman, Dan Roth, Daniel Freeman, Daniel Khashabi, Daniel Levy, Daniel Moseguí González, Danielle Perszyk, Danny Hernandez, Danqi Chen 0001, Daphne Ippolito, Dar Gilboa, David Dohan, David Drakard, David Jurgens, Debajyoti Datta, Deep Ganguli, Denis Emelin, Denis Kleyko, Deniz Yuret, Derek Chen, Derek Tam, Dieuwke Hupkes, Diganta Misra, Dilyar Buzan, Dimitri Coelho Mollo, Diyi Yang, Dong-Ho Lee, Dylan Schrader, Ekaterina Shutova, Ekin Dogus Cubuk, Elad Segal, Eleanor Hagerman, Elizabeth Barnes, Elizabeth Donoway, Ellie Pavlick, Emanuele Rodolà, Emma Lam, Eric Chu, Eric Tang, Erkut Erdem, Ernie Chang, Ethan A. Chi, Ethan Dyer, Ethan J. Jerzak, Ethan Kim, Eunice Engefu Manyasi, Evgenii Zheltonozhskii, Fanyue Xia, Fatemeh Siar, Fernando Martínez-Plumed, Francesca Happé, François Chollet, Frieda Rong, Gaurav Mishra, Genta Indra Winata, Gerard de Melo, Germán Kruszewski, Giambattista Parascandolo, Giorgio Mariani, Gloria Wang, Gonzalo Jaimovitch-López, Gregor Betz, Guy Gur-Ari, Hana Galijasevic, Hannah Kim 0010, Hannah Rashkin, Hannaneh Hajishirzi, Harsh Mehta, Hayden Bogar, Henry Shevlin, Hinrich Schütze, Hiromu Yakura, Hongming Zhang 0009, Hugh Mee Wong, Ian Ng, Isaac Noble, Jaap Jumelet, Jack Geissinger, Jackson Kernion, Jacob Hilton, Jaehoon Lee 0001, Jaime Fernández Fisac, James B. Simon, James Koppel, James Zheng, James Zou 0001, Jan Kocon, Jana Thompson, Janelle Wingfield, Jared Kaplan, Jarema Radom, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein, Jason Phang, Jason Wei, Jason Yosinski, Jekaterina Novikova, Jelle Bosscher, Jennifer Marsh, Jeremy Kim, Jeroen Taal, Jesse H. Engel, Jesujoba Alabi, Jiacheng Xu, Jiaming Song, Jillian Tang, Joan Waweru, John Burden, John Miller 0001, John U. Balis, Jonathan Batchelder, Jonathan Berant, Jörg Frohberg, Jos Rozen, José Hernández-Orallo, Joseph Boudeman, Joseph Guerr, Joseph Jones, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Joshua S. Rule, Joyce Chua, Kamil Kanclerz, Karen Livescu, Karl Krauth, Karthik Gopalakrishnan 0001, Katerina Ignatyeva, Katja Markert, Kaustubh D. Dhole, Kevin Gimpel, Kevin Omondi, Kory Mathewson, Kristen Chiafullo, Ksenia Shkaruta, Kumar Shridhar, Kyle McDonell, Kyle Richardson 0001, Laria Reynolds, Leo Gao, Li Zhang 0039, Liam Dugan, Lianhui Qin, Lidia Contreras Ochando, Louis-Philippe Morency, Luca Moschella, Lucas Lam, Lucy Noble, Ludwig Schmidt, Luheng He, Luis Oliveros Colón, Luke Metz, Lütfi Kerem Senel, Maarten Bosma, Maarten Sap, Maartje ter Hoeve, Maheen Farooqi, Manaal Faruqui, Mantas Mazeika, Marco Baturan, Marco Marelli, Marco Maru, María José Ramírez-Quintana, Marie Tolkiehn, Mario Giulianelli, Martha Lewis, Martin Potthast, Matthew L. Leavitt, Matthias Hagen, Mátyás Schubert, Medina Baitemirova, Melody Arnaud, Melvin McElrath, Michael A. Yee, Michael Cohen, Michael Gu, Michael I. Ivanitskiy, Michael Starritt, Michael Strube 0001, Michal Swedrowski, Michele Bevilacqua, Michihiro Yasunaga, Mihir Kale, Mike Cain, Mimee Xu, Mirac Suzgun, Mitch Walker, Mo Tiwari, Mohit Bansal, Moin Aminnaseri, Mor Geva, Mozhdeh Gheini, Mukund Varma T., Nanyun Peng, Nathan A. Chi, Nayeon Lee, Neta Gur-Ari Krakover, Nicholas Cameron 0001, Nicholas Roberts, Nick Doiron, Nicole Martinez, Nikita Nangia, Niklas Deckers, Niklas Muennighoff, Nitish Shirish Keskar, Niveditha Iyer, Noah Constant, Noah Fiedel, Nuan Wen, Oliver Zhang, Omar Agha, Omar Elbaghdadi, Omer Levy, Owain Evans, Pablo Antonio Moreno Casares, Parth Doshi, Pascale Fung, Paul Pu Liang, Paul Vicol, Pegah Alipoormolabashi, Peiyuan Liao, Percy Liang, Peter Chang, Peter Eckersley, Phu Mon Htut, Pinyu Hwang, Piotr Milkowski, Piyush Patil, Pouya Pezeshkpour, Priti Oli, Qiaozhu Mei, Qing Lyu 0001, Qinlang Chen 0001, Rabin Banjade, Rachel Etta Rudolph, Raefer Gabriel, Rahel Habacker, Ramon Risco, Raphaël Millière, Rhythm Garg, Richard Barnes 0002, Rif A. Saurous, Riku Arakawa, Robbe Raymaekers, Robert Frank 0001, Rohan Sikand, Roman Novak, Roman Sitelew, Ronan LeBras, Rosanne Liu, Rowan Jacobs, Rui Zhang 0037, Ruslan Salakhutdinov, Ryan Chi, Ryan Lee, Ryan Stovall, Ryan Teehan, Rylan Yang, Sahib Singh, Saif M. Mohammad, Sajant Anand, Sam Dillavou, Sam Shleifer, Sam Wiseman, Samuel Gruetter, Samuel R. Bowman, Samuel S. Schoenholz, Sanghyun Han, Sanjeev Kwatra, Sarah A. Rous, Sarik Ghazarian, Sayan Ghosh 0004, Sean Casey, Sebastian Bischoff 0001, Sebastian Gehrmann, Sebastian Schuster, Sepideh Sadeghi, Shadi Hamdan, Sharon Zhou, Shashank Srivastava, Sherry Shi, Shikhar Singh, Shima Asaadi, Shixiang Shane Gu, Shubh Pachchigar, Shubham Toshniwal, Shyam Upadhyay, Shyamolima (Shammie) Debnath, Siamak Shakeri, Simon Thormeyer, Simone Melzi, Siva Reddy, Sneha Priscilla Makini, Soo-Hwan Lee, Spencer Torene, Sriharsha Hatwar, Stanislas Dehaene, Stefan Divic, Stefano Ermon, Stella Biderman, Stephanie Lin, Stephen Prasad, Steven T. Piantadosi, Stuart M. Shieber, Summer Misherghi, Svetlana Kiritchenko, Swaroop Mishra, Tal Linzen, Tal Schuster, Tao Li 0039, Tao Yu 0009, Tariq Ali, Tatsu Hashimoto, Te-Lin Wu, Théo Desbordes, Theodore Rothschild, Thomas Phan, Tianle Wang 0009, Tiberius Nkinyili, Timo Schick, Timofei Kornev, Titus Tunduny, Tobias Gerstenberg, Trenton Chang, Trishala Neeraj, Tushar Khot, Tyler Shultz, Uri Shaham 0002, Vedant Misra, Vera Demberg, Victoria Nyamai, Vikas Raunak, Vinay V. Ramasesh, Vinay Uday Prabhu, Vishakh Padmakumar, Vivek Srikumar, William Fedus, William Saunders, William Zhang, Wout Vossen, Xiang Ren 0001, Xiaoyu Tong, Xinran Zhao, Xinyi Wu, Xudong Shen, Yadollah Yaghoobzadeh, Yair Lakretz, Yangqiu Song, Yasaman Bahri, Yejin Choi 0001, Yichi Yang, Yiding Hao, Yifu Chen, Yonatan Belinkov, Yu Hou, Yufang Hou 0001, Yuntao Bai, Zachary Seid, Zhuoye Zhao, Zijian Wang 0002, Zijie J. Wang, Zirui Wang, and Ziyi Wu

Published
2022
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26. Climate Engineering

Author

Gregor Betz

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Published
2021
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27. Making Reflective Equilibrium Precise. A Formal Model

Author

Claus Beisbart, Gregor Betz, and Georg Brun

Subjects
170 Ethics, 100 Philosophy, 160 Logic, 120 Epistemology
Abstract

Reflective equilibrium (RE) is often regarded as a powerful method in ethics, logic, and even philosophy in general. Despite this popularity, characterizations of the method have been fairly vague and unspecific so far. It thus may be doubted whether RE is more than a jumble of appealing but ultimately sketchy ideas that cannot be spelled out consistently. In this paper, we dispel such doubts by devising a formal model of RE. The model contains as components the agent���s commitments and a theory that tries to systematize the commitments. It yields a precise picture of how the commitments and the theory are adjusted to each other. The model differentiates between equilibrium as a target state and the dynamic equilibration process. First solutions to the model, obtained by computer simulation, show that the method allows for consistent specification and that the model���s implications are plausible in view of expectations on RE. In particular, the mutual adjustment of commitments and theory can improve one���s commitments, as proponents of RE have suggested. We argue that our model is fruitful not only because it points to issues that need to be dealt with for a better understanding of RE, but also because it provides the means to address these issues.

Published
2021
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28. Protestrituale. Inszenierung weltanschaulichen Wissens bei rezenten Protestereignissen

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

Betz gibt mit seinem Beitrag einen Einblick in die ernahrungspolitische Protestbewegung. Mit einer hermeneutischen Interpretation von Bildmaterial als Aufhanger wird in Grundzugen das Diskursuniversum dieser Variante der Okologiebewegung veranschaulicht und mit ethnografischen Beobachtungen eines zentralen Protestereignisses gegen die Agrarindustrie, des ›Wir haben Agrarindustrie Satt‹-Wochenendes, sowie beispielhaften Interviews erganzt. Daran anknupfend werden verschiedene Formen der Darstellung weltanschaulichen Wissens herausgestellt und die durch diese wirksame Inszenierung einer weltanschaulichen Gemeinschaft nachvollzogen. Dabei stellt der Autor zahlreiche Bezuge der Protestveranstaltung zu Formen christlicher Liturgie fest, welche durch die »Pragung unserer Gesellschaft und ihren sedimentierten sozialen Formen kollektiven rituellen Ausdrucks durch das Christentum« ursachlich erklart werden.

Published
2020
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29. Die vier grundlegenden Arbeitsschritte: Von der Pro-Kontra-Liste bis zur logischen Detailrekonstruktion

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

Pros and Cons – A Debater’s Handbook fasst offentliche Debatten in Form von kurzen Pro-Kontra-Listen zusammen. Das Handbuch ist erstmals 1896 bei Routledge in London erschienen und seitdem vielfach uberarbeitet worden. Die 18. Auflage (Sather 1999) fuhrt unter dem Titel »Staatliche Zensur« folgende Grunde – fur und wider – an.

Published
2020
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30. Rekonstruktionstechniken für umfangreiche Texte: Interpretation eines Klassikers

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

John Stuart Mill argumentiert im zweiten Kapitel von Uber die Freiheit fur ein weitreichendes Recht auf Meinungs- und Diskussionsfreiheit. Bereits in den ersten Zeilen nennt Mill seine zentrale These. Nicht nur eine undemokratische, auch eine demokratische Regierung, die »niemals daran [denkt], ihre Zwangsgewalt anders als in Ubereinstimmung mit dem zu gebrauchen, was sie fur die Volksstimme halt«, darf nicht die freie Meinungsauserung durch Zwangsgewalt beschranken (zitiert wird mit der Sigle UdF nach der Murmann-Ausgabe (Mill 2014) unter Angabe der Seitennummer sowie, falls zutreffend, der Absatznummer im zweiten Kapitel).

Published
2020
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31. Argumentrekonstruktion im Doppelpassspiel: Analyse einer juristischen Argumentation

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

(1) Jeder hat das Recht, seine Meinung in Wort, Schrift und Bild frei zu ausern und zu verbreiten und sich aus allgemein zuganglichen Quellen ungehindert zu unterrichten. Die Pressefreiheit und die Freiheit der Berichterstattung durch Rundfunk und Film werden gewahrleistet. Eine Zensur findet nicht statt. (2) Diese Rechte finden ihre Schranken in den Vorschriften der allgemeinen Gesetze, den gesetzlichen Bestimmungen zum Schutze der Jugend und in dem Recht der personlichen Ehre. (Art. 5 GG).

Published
2020
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33. Applying argumentation to structure and visualize multi-dimensional opinion spaces

Author

Tamara Mchedlidze, Michael Hamann, Sophie von Schmettow, and Gregor Betz

Subjects
Structure (mathematical logic), Linguistics and Language, Theoretical computer science, Computer science, 06 humanities and the arts, 02 engineering and technology, 0603 philosophy, ethics and religion, Computer Science Applications, Argumentation theory, Computational Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence, 060302 philosophy, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Multi dimensional, 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing
Published
2018
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36. Truth in Evidence and Truth in Arguments without Logical Omniscience

Author

Gregor Betz

Subjects
History, Logical truth, Philosophy, 05 social sciences, Coherence theory of truth, 06 humanities and the arts, 050905 science studies, 0603 philosophy, ethics and religion, Pragmatic theory of truth, Argumentation theory, Epistemology, History and Philosophy of Science, Argument, 060302 philosophy, Omniscience, 0509 other social sciences
Abstract

Science advances by means of argument and debate. Based on a formal model of complex argumentation, this article assesses the interplay between evidential and inferential drivers in scientific cont...

Published
2016
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37. Idealtypologie der Zwischenräume

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

Als zentrales Ziel der verstehenden Soziologie in der Tradition insbesondere von Max Weber, Alfred Schutz, Peter Berger, Thomas Luckmann, Hans-Georg Soeffner, Anne Honer und Ronald Hitzler lasst sich fassen, alltagsweltliche Konstruktionen erster Ordnung in Konstruktionen zweiter Ordnung zu uberfuhren (vgl. beispielsweise Soeffner 2004). Soziologisches Verstehen unterscheidet sich von alltagsweltlichem Verstehen dadurch, dass der Verstehensprozess transparent gemacht wird, methodisch begrundet erfolgt und erkenntnistheoretisch fundiert wird. Am Ende des Verstehensprozesses stehen hoch aggregierte Sinnfiguren.

Published
2018
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38. Factual and normative dissent in media debates about climate policy

Author

Gregor Betz

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, media_common.quotation_subject, Discourse analysis, Economics, Normative, Dissent, Positive economics, Deliberation, Climate policy, Democracy, media_common
Abstract

This is a brief, modest comment on Schmidt and Schafer’s discourse analysis of dominant normative views in the climate policy debate. I take their empirical findings as a starting point to reflect on the way democratic societies should handle normative and factual dissent in policy deliberation.

Published
2015
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40. Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction

Author

Gregor Betz

Subjects
Philosophy, Philosophy of science, History and Philosophy of Science, Computer science, Scientific practice, Econometrics, Probabilistic logic, Representation (systemics), Climate model, Imperfect, Data science
Abstract

Climate models don’t give us probabilistic forecasts. To interpret their results, alternatively, as serious possibilities seems problematic inasmuch as climate models rely on contrary-to-fact assumptions: why should we consider their implications as possible if their assumptions are known to be false? The paper explores a way to address this possibilistic challenge. It introduces the concepts of a perfect and of an imperfect credible world, and discusses whether climate models can be interpreted as imperfect credible worlds. That would allow one to use models for possibilistic prediction and salvage widespread scientific practice.

Published
2015
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41. 'Führer befiehl, wir folgen dir!' Charismatic Leaders in Extremist Groups

Author

Gregor Betz, Rainer Cramm, and Michael Baurmann

Subjects
Charismatic authority, Radicalization, History, Dynamics (music), media_common.quotation_subject, Opinion leadership, Alienation, Charisma, Ideology, Function (engineering), Classics, media_common, Epistemology
Abstract

If we want to understand how extremist group ideologies are established, we have to comprehend the social processes which form the basis of the emergence and distribution of such beliefs. In our chapter, we present an innovative approach to examining these processes and explaining how they function: with the method of computer-based simulation of opinion formation, we develop heuristic explanatory models which help to generate new and interesting hypotheses. The focus is thereby not on individuals and their idiosyncrasies but on the dynamic mutual adaptation of beliefs in a group. These dynamics can produce an incremental establishment of “charismatic” opinion leaders and an increasing radicalization and alienation. A prototype of such a simulation model has produced promising first results which are presented and discussed.

Published
2017
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43. Hybride Phänomene als Spielfelder des Neuen

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

Wie samtliche Bereiche unserer Gesellschaft durchlaufen inszenierte Ereignisse aller Art einen fortgesetzten sozialen Wandel. In diesem Aufsatz geht es um eine spezifische Form der Innovation von Events beziehungsweise um ein besonderes Phanomen sozialen Wandels, das historisch zwar nicht neu, bisher aber weder theoretisch noch empirisch umfassend verstanden und beschrieben worden ist: Hybride Events als Beispiel fur hybride Phanomene. Als Hybrides Phanomen werden solche sozialen Phanomene bezeichnet, bei denen mindestens zwei zu einem spezifischen historischen Zeitpunkt gesellschaftlich als verschieden typisierte Phanomene augenfallig kombiniert sind. Anhand von funf Thesen sowie mithilfe von ebenso vielen Empirieexkursen aus dem Bereich Hybrider Events werden wissenssoziologisch inspirierte Ansatze einer Theorie hybrider Phanomene formuliert.

Published
2017
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44. Sinnvolles Vergnügen. Hybridisierte Protestereignisse als kreative Intervention im Stadtraum

Author

Gregor Betz

Abstract

Seit jeher wird der Stadtraum als Ort fur politische Manifestationen, Machtbekundungen und Aushandlungsdiskurse um gesellschaftliche Entscheidungen genutzt. Nicht erst seit der proklamierten ‚Spasgesellschaft‘ erwarten Teilnehmer von Protest dabei auch kurzfristige, als Vergnugen erfahrene Erlebniselemente. Die Bedeutung positiver Emotionen und Erlebnisse wurde allerdings bis heute in der Protest- und Soziale-Bewegungen-Forschung kaum oder lediglich instrumentell verkurzt beachtet. Mit diesem Aufsatz soll ein Beitrag dazu geleistet werden, Licht auf den ‚blinden Fleck Vergnugen bei Protest‘ zu werfen. Basierend auf ethnografischen Erkundungen wird eine Typologie ‚hybridisierten Protests‘ hergeleitet und begrundet, also von Ereignissen, die in einem Feld zwischen Protest und Vergnugen verortbar sind. Durch die Hybridisierungsperspektive wird versucht, rezente Protestereignisse zu sortieren und damit differenzierter zu verstehen.

Published
2017
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45. Hybride Events – Definitionsvorschlag

Author

Arne Niederbacher, Gregor Betz, Ronald Hitzler, and Lisa Schäfer

Abstract

Als inszeniert bezeichnen wir Ereignisse, die stattfinden, weil jemand (ein Individuum, eine Gruppe, eine Organisation) mit Gestaltungsabsichten dafur Sorge tragt, dass sie stattfinden.

Published
2017
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46. Hybride Events – zur Einleitung

Author

Arne Niederbacher, Lisa Schäfer, Ronald Hitzler, and Gregor Betz

Abstract

Religiose Feste mit Elementen popularkultureller Events; durch kommerzielle Interessen uberlagerte jugendkulturelle Events; von Medienlogik dominierte Vor-Ort-Ereignisse; aus verschiedenen religiosen oder Kulturtraditionen heraus ‚zusammengebastelte‘ Feste; als Protest und als Vergnugen gleichermasen konzipierte kollektive Ereignisse; die zu Bildungs- oder Vermarktungszwecken vollzogene Anreicherung hochkultureller Inhalte mit popularkulturellen Elementen: Die Liste an Beispielen fur inszenierte Veranstaltungen, die sich durch graduelle Zugehorigkeiten, geplante Kombinationen, das Changieren in einem offenen Feld und die Verbindung beziehungsweise Verschrankung von Elementen unterschiedlicher Provenienz auszeichnen, liese sich weiter fortfuhren.

Published
2017
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47. Meinungsdynamiken in fundamentalistischen Gruppen. Erklärungshypothesen auf der Basis von Simulationsmodellen

Author

Michael Baurmann, Gregor Betz, and Rainer Cramm

Subjects
Philosophy, Sociology and Political Science, Mathematics
Abstract

If we want to understand how fundamentalist group ideologies are established, we have to comprehend the social processes which form the basis of the emergence and distribution of such beliefs. In our paper we present an innovative approach to examining these processes and explaining how they function: with the method of computer-based simulation of opinion formation we develop heuristic explanatory models which help to generate new and interesting hypotheses. The focus is thereby not on individuals and their idiosyncrasies but on the dynamic mutual adaptation of beliefs in a group. These dynamics can produce an incremental establishment of ‘charismatic’ opinion leaders and an increasing radicalization and alienation. A prototype of such a simulation model has produced promising first results which are presented and discussed.

Published
2014
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48. Column-Based Graph Layouts

Author

Dorothea Wagner, Andreas Gemsa, Gregor Betz, Ignaz Rutter, and Christof Mathies

Subjects
Combinatorics, Computational Theory and Mathematics, General Computer Science, Computer science, Graph (abstract data type), Geometry and Topology, Computer Science Applications, Theoretical Computer Science
Published
2014
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49. In defence of the value free ideal

Author

Gregor Betz

Subjects
Value (ethics), Philosophy, Politics, Philosophy of science, History and Philosophy of Science, Current practice, Political science, Climate science, Positive economics, Articulation (sociology), Ideal (ethics), Epistemology
Abstract

The ideal of value free science states that the justification of scientific findings should not be based on non-epistemic (e.g. moral or political) values. It has been criticized on the grounds that scientists have to employ moral judgements in managing inductive risks. The paper seeks to defuse this methodological critique. Allegedly value-laden decisions can be systematically avoided, it argues, by making uncertainties explicit and articulating findings carefully. Such careful uncertainty articulation, understood as a methodological strategy, is exemplified by the current practice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Published
2013
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50. Weiter denken - über Philosophie, Wissenschaft und Religion

Author

Gregor Betz, Dirk Koppelberg, David Löwenstein, Anna Wehofsits, Gregor Betz, Dirk Koppelberg, David Löwenstein, and Anna Wehofsits

Subjects
Philosophy
Abstract

Wer philosophiert, argumentiert. Der Band vereint Beiträge zur Argumentationstheorie, Erkenntnistheorie, Wissenschaftstheorie, Existenzphilosophie, Religionsphilosophie und Metaphilosophie. Er zeigt auf, dass auch theoretische Fragen von lebenspraktischer Bedeutung sind.

Published
2015

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