1. Identifying Common Predictors of Multiple Adverse Outcomes Among Elderly Adults With Type-2 Diabetes
- Author
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Marsha A. Raebel, Samuel Kabue, Wendy Dyer, Julie A. Schmittdiel, Vincent X. Liu, and Greg A. Nichols
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Adverse outcomes ,Health Services for the Aged ,education ,MEDLINE ,Type 2 diabetes ,Comorbidity ,Syncope ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Patient Admission ,Risk Factors ,Diabetes mellitus ,Outcome Assessment, Health Care ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Elderly adults ,Intensive care medicine ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Aged, 80 and over ,business.industry ,Health Priorities ,Hip Fractures ,030503 health policy & services ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Retrospective cohort study ,medicine.disease ,Hypoglycemia ,Logistic Models ,Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 ,Observational study ,Female ,0305 other medical science ,business ,Emergency Service, Hospital - Abstract
OBJECTIVE: As part of a multidisciplinary team managing patients with type-2 diabetes, pharmacists need a consistent approach of identifying and prioritizing patients at highest risk of adverse outcomes. Our objective was to identify which predictors of adverse outcomes among type-2 diabetes patients were significant and common across 7 outcomes and whether these predictors improved the performance of risk prediction models. Identifying such predictors would allow pharmacists and other health care providers to prioritize their patient panels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Our study population included 120,256 adults aged 65 years or older with type-2 diabetes from a large integrated health system. Through an observational retrospective cohort study design, we assessed which risk factors were associated with 7 adverse outcomes (hypoglycemia, hip fractures, syncope, emergency department visit or hospital admission, death, and 2 combined outcomes). We split (50:50) our study cohort into a test and training set. We used logistic regression to model outcomes in the test set and performed k-fold validation (k = 5) of the combined outcome (without death) within the validation set. RESULTS: The most significant predictors across the 7 outcomes was: age, number of medicines, prior history of outcome within the past 2 years, chronic kidney disease, depression, and retinopathy. Experiencing an adverse outcome within the prior 2 years was the strongest predictor of future adverse outcomes (odds ratio range: 4.15–7.42). The best performing models across all outcomes included: prior history of outcome, physiological characteristics, comorbidities and pharmacy-specific factors (c-statistic range: 0.71–0.80). CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacists and other health care providers can use models with prior history of adverse event, number of medicines, chronic kidney disease, depression and retinopathy to prioritize interventions for elderly patients with type-2 diabetes.
- Published
- 2019