1. Ecosystems Disturbance Recovery: What It Was or What It Could Have Been?
- Author
-
Dashti, Hamid, Chen, Min, Smith, William K., Zhao, Kaiguang, and Moore, David J. P.
- Abstract
The time it takes for an ecosystem to recover from a disturbance is a key to environmental management. Conventionally, recovery is defined as a return to the pre‐disturbance state, assuming ecosystem stationarity. However, this view does not account for the impact of external forces like climate change, imposing non‐stationarity and trends. Alternatively, the counterfactual approach views recovery as the state the ecosystem would have achieved if the disturbance had not occurred, accounting for external forces. Here, we present a simple method to estimate the counterfactual recovery time. By implementing our method to the greening of the Arctic region, we showed that counterfactual greening recovery is twice as long as conventional recovery over the region. We argue that the well‐documented greening of the region acts as an external force, leading to such a large difference. We advocate for embracing the counterfactual definition of recovery, as it aligns with realistic decision‐making processes. Plain Language Summary: The time required for an ecosystem to recover from a disturbance is a crucial factor in many areas, such as decision‐making. Traditionally, this recovery time has been considered as the period for a disturbed ecosystem to either bounce back to its pre‐disturbance state or reach a new stable state. However, the assumption of stability may not hold true in light of climate change and other external factors. These forces make ecosystems dynamic, potentially with upward or downward trends, rather than reaching a stable state. To account for these external forces, an alternative definition is presented: the time for an ecosystem to reach its potential state, as if the disturbance had not occurred, termed the "counterfactual recovery." In this study, we propose a simple method based on time series analyses to calculate the counterfactual recovery time. We showcase the difference between the two definitions by implementing our approach to the case of greening in the Arctic and boreal regions post‐disturbance. Our method is generalizable to any ecological system, and we envision its contribution to decision‐making processes, such as conservation efforts. Key Points: The conventional definition to recovery as return to pre‐disturbance state ignores the impact of external forces on the recovery processWe proposed a method to estimate the time to recover using counterfactual approach which considers the impact of external forcesImplementing our approach over the greening of the arctic region showed the large difference between the two approaches [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF