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We show that the global balance index of financial correlation networks can be used as a systemic risk measure. We define the global balance of a network starting from a diffusive process that describes how the information spreads across nodes in a network, providing an alternative derivation to the usual combinatorial one. The steady state of this process is the solution of a linear system governed by the exponential of the replication matrix of the process. We provide a bridge between the numerical stability of this linear system, measured by the condition number in an opportune norm, and the structural predictability of the underlying signed network. The link between the condition number and related systemic risk measures, such as the market rank indicators, allows the global balance index to be interpreted as a new systemic risk measure. A comprehensive empirical application to real financial data finally confirms that the global balance index of the financial correlation network represents a valuable and effective systemic risk indicator.

This paper investigates the cryptocurrency network of the FTX exchange during the collapse of its native token, FTT, to understand how network structures adapt to significant financial disruptions, by exploiting vertex centrality measures. Using proprietary data on the transactional relationships between various cryptocurrencies, we construct the filtered correlation matrix to identify the most significant relations in the FTX and Binance markets. By using suitable centrality measures - closeness and information centrality - we assess network stability during FTX's bankruptcy. The findings document the appropriateness of such vertex centralities in understanding the resilience and vulnerabilities of financial networks. By tracking the changes in centrality values before and during the FTX crisis, this study provides useful insights into the structural dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Results reveal how different cryptocurrencies experienced shifts in their network roles due to the crisis. Moreover, our findings highlight the interconnectedness of cryptocurrency markets and how the failure of a single entity can lead to widespread repercussions that destabilize other nodes of the network.

We propose a new paradigm to design a network-based self-adaptive epidemic model that relies on the interplay between the network and its line graph. We implement this proposal on a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model in which both nodes and edges are considered susceptible and their respective probabilities of being infected result in a real-time re-modulation of the weights of both the graph and its line graph. The new model can be considered as an appropriate perturbation of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, and the coupling between the graph and its line graph is interpreted as a reinforcement factor that fosters diffusion through a continuous adjustment of the parameters involved. We study the existence and stability conditions of the endemic and disease-free states for general network topologies. Moreover, we introduce, through the asymptotic values in the endemic steady states, a new type of eigenvector centrality where the score of a node depends on both the neighboring nodes and the edges connected to it. We also investigate the properties of this new model on some specific synthetic graphs, such as cycle, regular, and star graphs. Finally, we perform a series of numerical simulations and prove their effectiveness in capturing some empirical evidence on behavioral adoption mechanisms.

This paper proposes a new class of assortativity measures for weighted and directed networks. We extend the classical Newman's degree-degree assortativity by considering nodes' attributes different from the degree. Moreover, we propose connections among the nodes through directed paths of length greater than one, thus obtaining higher-order assortativity. We provide an empirical application of these measures for the paradigmatic case of the trade network. Importantly, we show how this global network indicator is strongly related to the autocorrelations of the states of a Markov chain.

The energy consumption, the transfer of resources through the international trade, the transition towards renewable energies and the environmental sustainability appear as key drivers in order to evaluate the resilience of the energy systems. Concerning the consumptions, in the literature a great attention has been paid to direct energy, but the production of goods and services also involves indirect energy. Hence, in this work we consider different types of embodied energy sources and the time evolution of the sectors' and countries' interactions. Flows are indeed used to construct a directed and weighted temporal multilayer network based respectively on renewable and non-renewable sources, where sectors are nodes and layers are countries. We provide a methodological approach for analysing the network reliability and resilience and for identifying critical sectors and economies in the system by applying the Multi-Dimensional HITS algorithm. Then, we evaluate central arcs in the network at each time period by proposing a novel topological indicator based on the maximum flow problem. In this way, we provide a full view of economies, sectors and connections that play a relevant role over time in the network and whose removal could heavily affect the stability of the system. We provide a numerical analysis based on the embodied energy flows among countries and sectors in the period from 1990 to 2016. Results prove that the methods are effective in catching the different patterns between renewable and non-renewable energy sources.

The persistence probability is a statistical index that has been proposed to detect one or more communities embedded in a network. Even though its definition is straightforward, e.g, the probability that a random walker remains in a group of nodes, it has been seldom applied possibly for the difficulty of developing an efficient algorithm to calculate it. Here, we propose a new mathematical programming model to find the community with the largest persistence probability. The model is integer fractional programming, but it can be reduced to mixed-integer linear programming with an appropriate variable substitution. Nevertheless, the problem can be solved in a reasonable time for networks of small size only, therefore we developed some heuristic procedures to approximate the optimal solution. First, we elaborated a randomized greedy-ascent method, taking advantage of a peculiar data structure to generate feasible solutions fast. After analyzing the greedy output and determining where the optimal solution is eventually located, we implemented improving procedures based on a local exchange, but applying different long term diversification principles, that are based on variable neighborhood search and random restart. Next, we applied the algorithms on simulated graphs that reproduce accurately the clustering characteristics found in real networks to determine the reliability and the effectiveness of our methodology. Finally, we applied our method to two real networks, comparing our findings to what found by two well-known alternative community detection procedures.

In this paper, we provide novel definitions of clustering coefficient for weighted and directed multilayer networks. We extend in the multilayer theoretical context the clustering coefficients proposed in the literature for weighted directed monoplex networks. We quantify how deeply a node is involved in a choesive structure focusing on a single node, on a single layer or on the entire system. The coefficients convey several characteristics inherent to the complex topology of the multilayer network. We test their effectiveness applying them to a particularly complex structure such as the international trade network. The trade data integrate different aspects and they can be described by a directed and weighted multilayer network, where each layer represents import and export relationships between countries for a given sector. The proposed coefficients find successful application in describing the interrelations of the trade network, allowing to disentangle the effects of countries and sectors and jointly consider the interactions between them.

Clustering and closure coefficients are among the most widely applied indicators in the description of the topological structure of a network. Many distinct definitions have been proposed over time, particularly in the case of weighted networks, where the choice of the weight attributed to the triangles is a crucial aspect. In the present work, in the framework of weighted directed multilayer networks, we extend the classical clustering and closure coefficients through the introduction of the clumping coefficient, which generalizes them to incomplete triangles of any type. We then organize the class of these coefficients in a systematic taxonomy in the more general context of weighted directed multilayer networks. Such cohesion coefficients have also been adapted to the different scales that characterize a multilayer network, in order to grasp their structure from different perspectives. We also show how the tensor formalism allows incorporating the new definitions, as well as all those existing in the literature, in a single unified writing, in such a way that a suitable choice of the involved adjacency tensors allows obtaining each of them. Finally, through some applications to simulated networks, we show the effectiveness of the proposed coefficients in capturing different peculiarities of the network structure on different scales.

The increasing complexity of interrelated systems has made the use of multiplex networks an important tool for explaining the nature of relations between elements in the system. In this paper, we aim at investigating various aspects of countries' behaviour during the coronavirus pandemic period. By means of a multiplex network we consider simultaneously stringency index values, COVID-19 infections and international trade data, in order to detect clusters of countries that showed a similar reaction to the pandemic. We propose a new methodological approach based on the Estrada communicability for identifying communities on a multiplex network, based on a two-step optimization. At first, we determine the optimal inter-layer intensity between levels by minimizing a distance function. Hence, the optimal inter-layer intensity is used to detect communities on each layer. Our findings show that the community detection on this multiplex network has greater information power than classical methods for single-layer networks. Our approach better reveals clusters on each layer with respect to the application of the same approach on each single-layer. Moreover, detected groups in the multiplex case benefit of a higher cohesion, leading to identifying on each layer a lower number of communities with respect to the ones obtained in the single-layer cases.

We analyze the multilayer architecture of the global input-output network using sectoral trade data (WIOD, 2016 release). With a focus on the mesoscale structure and related properties, our multilayer analysis takes into consideration the splitting into industry-based layers in order to catch more peculiar relationships between countries that cannot be detected from the analysis of the single-layer aggregated network. We can identify several large international communities in which some countries trade more intensively in some specific layers. However, interestingly, our results show that these clusters can restructure and evolve over time. In general, not only their internal composition changes, but the centrality rankings of the members inside are also reordered, industries from some countries diminishing their role and others from other countries growing importance. These changes in the large international clusters may reflect the outcomes and the dynamics of cooperation, partner selection and competition among industries and among countries in the global input-output network.

International trade is based on a set of complex relationships between different countries that can be modelled as an extremely dense network of interconnected agents. On the one hand, this network might favour the economic growth of countries, but on the other, it can also favour the diffusion of diseases, like the COVID-19. In this paper, we study whether, and to what extent, the topology of the trade network can explain the rate of COVID-19 diffusion and mortality across countries. We compute the countries' centrality measures and we apply the community detection methodology based on communicability distance. Then, we use these measures as focal regressors in a negative binomial regression framework. In doing so, we also compare the effect of different measures of centrality. Our results show that the number of infections and fatalities are larger in countries with a higher centrality in the global trade network.

Big data and the use of advanced technologies are relevant topics in the financial market. In this context, complex networks became extremely useful in describing the structure of complex financial systems. In particular, the time evolution property of the stock markets have been described by temporal networks. However, these approaches fail to consider the interactions over time between assets. To overcome this drawback, financial markets can be described by multiplex networks where the different relations between nodes can be conveniently expressed structuring the network through different layers. To catch this kind of interconnections we provide new local clustering coefficients for multiplex networks, looking at the network from different perspectives depending on the node position, as well as a global clustering coefficient for the whole network. We also prove that all the well-known expressions for clustering coefficients existing in the literature, suitably extended to the multiplex framework, may be unified into our proposal. By means of an application to the multiplex temporal financial network, based on the returns of the S\&P100 assets, we show that the proposed measures prove to be effective in describing dependencies between assets over time.

In this paper, we investigate the mesoscale structure of the World Trade Network. In this framework, a specific role is assumed by short and long-range interactions, and hence by the distance, between countries. Therefore, we identify clusters through a new procedure that exploits Estrada communicability distance and the vibrational communicability distance, which turn out to be particularly suitable for catching the inner structure of the economic network. The proposed methodology aims at finding the distance threshold that maximizes a specific modularity function defined for general metric spaces. Main advantages regard the computational efficiency of the procedure as well as the possibility to inspect intercluster and intracluster properties of the resulting communities. The numerical analysis highlights peculiar relationships between countries and provides a rich set of information that can hardly be achieved within alternative clustering approaches., Comment: 40 pages, 19 figures

Understanding the structure of communities in a network has a great importance in the economic analysis. Communities are indeed characterized by specific properties, that are different from those of both the individual node and the whole network, and they can affect various processes on the network. In the International Trade Network, community detection aims to search sets of countries (or of trade sectors) which have a high intra-cluster connectivity and a low inter-cluster connectivity. In general, exchanges among countries occur according to preferential economic relationships ranging over different sectors. In this paper, we combine community detection with specific topological indicators, such as centrality measures. As a result, a new weighted network is constructed by the original one, in which weights are determined taking into account all the topological indicators in a multi-criteria approach. To solve the resulting Clique Partitioning Problem and find homogeneous group of nations, we use a new fast algorithm, based on quick descents to a local optimal solution. The analysis allows to cluster countries by interconnections, economic power and intensity of trade, giving an important overview on the international trade patterns.

Node centrality is one of the most important and widely used concepts in the study of complex networks. Here, we extend the paradigm of node centrality in financial and economic networks to consider the changes of node "importance" produced not only by the variation of the topology of the system but also as a consequence of the external levels of risk to which the network as a whole is submitted. Starting from the "Susceptible-Infected" (SI) model of epidemics and its relation to the communicability functions of networks we develop a series of risk-dependent centralities for nodes in (financial and economic) networks. We analyze here some of the most important mathematical properties of these risk-dependent centrality measures. In particular, we study the newly observed phenomenon of ranking interlacement, by means of which two entities may interlace their ranking positions in terms of risk in the network as a consequence of the change in the external conditions only, i.e., without any change in the topology. We test the risk-dependent centralities by studying two real-world systems: the network generated by collecting assets of the S\&P 100 and the corporate board network of the US top companies, according to Forbes in 1999. We found that a high position in the ranking of the analyzed financial companies according to their risk-dependent centrality corresponds to companies more sensitive to the external market variations during the periods of crisis., Comment: This version is accepted on SIAM journal on Financial Mathematics

In this article we deal with the problem of portfolio allocation by enhancing network theory tools. We use the dependence structure of the correlations network in constructing some well-known risk-based models in which the estimation of correlation matrix is a building block in the portfolio optimization. We formulate and solve all these portfolio allocation problems using both the standard approach and the network-based approach. Moreover, in constructing the network-based portfolios we propose the use of two different estimators for the covariance matrix: the sample estimator and the shrinkage toward constant correlation one. All the strategies under analysis are implemented on two high-dimensional portfolios having different characteristics, covering the period from January $2001$ to December $2017$. We find that the network-based portfolio consistently better performs and has lower risk compared to the corresponding standard portfolio in an out-of-sample perspective.

This work deals with the issue of assessing the influence of a node in the entire network and in the subnetwork to which it belongs as well, adapting the classical idea of vertex centrality. We provide a general definition of relative vertex centrality measure with respect to the classical one, referred to the whole network. Specifically, we give a decomposition of the relative centrality measure by including also the relative influence of the single node with respect to a given subgraph containing it. The proposed measure of relative centrality is tested in the empirical networks generated by collecting assets of the $S\&P$ 100, focusing on two specific centrality indices: betweenness and eigenvector centrality. The analysis is performed in a time perspective, capturing the assets influence, with respect to the characteristics of the analysed measures, in both the entire network and the specific sectors to which the assets belong.

This paper presents a new definition of the community structure of a network, which takes also into account how communities are stratified. In particular, we extend the standard concept of clustering coefficient and provide the local $l$-adjacency clustering coefficient of a node $i$. We define it as an opportunely weighted mean of the clustering coefficients of nodes which are at distance $l$ from $i$. The stratus of the community associated to node $i$ is identified by the distance $l$ from $i$, so that the standard clustering coefficient is a peculiar local $l$-adjacency clustering coefficient at stratus $l=0$. As the distance $l$ varies, the local $l$-adjacency clustering coefficient is then used to infer insights on the community structure of the entire network. Empirical experiments on special business networks are carried out. In particular, the analysis of air traffic networks validate the theoretical proposal and provide supporting arguments on its usefulness., Comment: This version accepted for publication on Journal of Business Research

In this article we propose a novel measure of systemic risk in the context of financial networks. To this aim, we provide a definition of systemic risk which is based on the structure, developed at different levels, of clustered neighbours around the nodes of the network. The proposed measure incorporates the generalized concept of clustering coefficient of order $l$ of a node $i$ introduced in Cerqueti et al. (2018). Its properties are also explored in terms of systemic risk assessment. Empirical experiments on the time-varying global banking network show the effectiveness of the presented systemic risk measure and provide insights on how systemic risk has changed over the last years, also in the light of the recent financial crisis and the subsequent more stringent regulation for globally systemically important banks., Comment: Submitted

The main contribution of the paper is to employ the financial market network as a useful tool to improve the portfolio selection process, where nodes indicate securities and edges capture the dependence structure of the system. Three different methods are proposed in order to extract the dependence structure between assets in a network context. Starting from this modified structure, we formulate and then we solve the asset allocation problem. We find that the portfolios obtained through a network-based approach are composed mainly of peripheral assets, which are poorly connected with the others. These portfolios, in the majority of cases, are characterized by an higher trade-off between performance and risk with respect to the traditional Global Minimum Variance (GMV) portfolio. Additionally, this methodology benefits of a graphical visualization of the selected portfolio directly over the graphic layout of the network, which helps in improving our understanding of the optimal strategy., Comment: Submitted

In this paper, we consider the problem of assessing local clustering in complex networks. Various definitions for this measure have been proposed for the cases of networks having weighted edges, but less attention has been paid to both weighted and directed networks. We provide a new local clustering coefficient for this kind of networks, starting from those existing in the literature for the weighted and undirected case. Furthermore, we extract from our coefficient four specific components, in order to separately consider different link patterns of triangles. Empirical applications on several real networks from different frameworks and with different order are provided. The performance of our coefficient is also compared with that of existing coefficients in the literature.

Assortativity was first introduced by Newman and has been extensively studied and applied to many real world networked systems since then. Assortativity is a graph metrics and describes the tendency of high degree nodes to be directly connected to high degree nodes and low degree nodes to low degree nodes. It can be interpreted as a first order measure of the connection between nodes, i.e. the first autocorrelation of the degree-degree vector. Even though assortativity has been used so extensively, to the author's knowledge, no attempt has been made to extend it theoretically. This is the scope of our paper. We will introduce higher order assortativity by extending the Newman index based on a suitable choice of the matrix driving the connections. Higher order assortativity will be defined for paths, shortest paths, random walks of a given time length, connecting any couple of nodes. The Newman assortativity is achieved for each of these measures when the matrix is the adjacency matrix, or, in other words, the correlation is of order 1. Our higher order assortativity indexes can be used for describing a variety of real networks, help discriminating networks having the same Newman index and may reveal new topological network features., Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures