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Introduction Many African Americans live in communities with a disproportionately high density of tobacco advertisements compared to Whites. Some research indicates that point-of-sale advertising is associated with impulse purchases of cigarettes and smoking. Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) can be used to examine associations between tobacco advertisement exposure and smoking variables in the natural environment. Methods Non-treatment seeking African American smokers were given a mobile device for 2 weeks (N = 56). They were prompted four times per day and responded to questions about recent exposure to tobacco advertisements. Participants were also asked to indicate the number of cigarettes smoked, and if they made any purchase, or an impulse purchase, since the last assessment. Linear mixed models (LMMs) analyzed between- and within-subject associations between exposure and outcomes. Results Participants reported seeing at least one advertisement on 33% of assessments. Of those assessments, they reported seeing menthol advertisements on 87% of assessments. Between-subject analyses revealed that participants who on average saw more advertisements were generally more likely to report purchasing cigarettes and to purchase cigarettes on impulse. Within-subject analyses revealed that when an individual participant reported seeing more advertisements than usual they were more likely to have reported purchasing cigarettes, making an impulse purchase and smoking more cigarettes during the same period, but not the subsequent time period. Conclusions Many African American smokers are frequently exposed to pro-tobacco marketing. Advertisement exposure is cross-sectionally associated with impulse purchases and smoking. Future research should assess prospective associations in more detail.

The Benjamini–Hochberg (BH) false discovery rate (FDR) procedure enjoys widespread use in multiple testing scenarios when the cost of false positives is low and the number of simultaneous tests prohibits use of the Bonferroni procedure. The FDR and the average power are each expected values, of the false discovery proportion (FDP) and true positive proportion (TPP), respectively. Chi (2007), proved a law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) for the positive proportion (PP), FDP and TPP, and discusses a criticality phenomenon whereby a minimal FDR corresponding to the effect size is required for a nonzero rate of positive calls. While almost sure convergence follows as a corollary, no direct simple proof exists in the literature. We provide this result under the same set of conditions. Of greater consequence, we prove central limit results (CLT) for the PP, FPF and TPP under these weak conditions, providing full characterization of the limits.

This study was conducted in 2016–2017 to better understand formal and informal leadership roles and activities of alumni from postdoctoral research training programs in cancer prevention. Data were obtained from surveys of 254 employed scientists who completed cancer prevention postdoctoral training within the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Cancer Prevention Fellowship Program, or at US research institutions through NCI-sponsored National Research Service Award (NRSA) individual postdoctoral fellowship (F32) grants, from 1987 to 2011. Fifteen questions categorized under Organizational Leadership, Research Leadership, Professional Society/Conference Leadership, and Broader Scientific/Health Community Leadership domains were analyzed. About 75% of respondents had at least one organizational leadership role or activity during their careers, and 13–34% reported some type of research, professional society/conference, or broader scientific/health community leadership within the past 5 years. Characteristics independently associated with leadership from regression models were being in earlier postdoctoral cohorts (8 items, range for statistically significant ORs = 2.8 to 10.8) and employment sector (8 items, range for statistically significant ORs = 0.4 to 11.7). Scientists whose race/ethnicity was other than white were less likely to report organizational leadership or management responsibilities (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.9). Here, many alumni from NCI-supported cancer prevention postdoctoral programs were involved in leadership, with postdoctoral cohort and employment sector being the factors most often associated with leadership roles and activities. Currently, there is relatively little research on leadership roles of biomedical scientists in general, or in cancer prevention specifically. This study begins to address this gap and provide a basis for more extensive studies of leadership roles and training of scientists.

Background: Effective screening and prevention strategies for bladder cancer require accurate risk stratification models. We developed models to predict the risk of bladder cancer based on clinical and sociodemographic data on participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer (PLCO) screening trial. Methods: Baseline clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from 149,542 PLCO participants, ages 55 to 74 years, without a prior history of bladder cancer. Cox proportional hazards models were used to predict the risk of all bladder cancers (ABC) and of high-grade bladder cancers (HGBC) from baseline information. We used the HGBC risk model to design a hypothetical bladder cancer mortality prevention trial. Results: Over a median follow-up of 12 years, 1,124 men and 259 women developed bladder cancer (including 392 and 72 with HGBC, respectively). The incidence in men and in women was 133.6 and 29.6 cases per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Nomograms constructed for predicting the risk of ABC and HGBC had c-indices of 0.746 and 0.759, respectively. Age, race, education, smoking (intensity and duration), comorbidity, prostatitis, syphilis, and hormone replacement therapy use were statistically significant predictors in the models. We show that our risk model can be used to design a bladder cancer mortality prevention trial half the size of a trial designed without risk stratification. Conclusion: Models to predict the risk of ABC and HGBC have been developed and validated. Impact: Using the upper 40th percentile from the HGBC model, a suitable cohort for a screening or chemoprevention trial could be identified, although the size and follow-up of such a trial would be costly. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 22(12); 2241–9. ©2013 AACR.

BACKGROUND The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), which compared lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) versus chest radiography (CXR), demonstrated a statistically significant mortality benefit of LDCT screening. In the current study, the authors performed a post hoc analysis to examine whether the benefit was affected by various baseline factors, including age, sex, and smoking status, and whether it differed by tumor histology. METHODS Lung cancer death rates were computed as events over person-years of observation; the mortality risk ratio (RR) was defined as the lung cancer death rate in the LDCT versus CXR trial arms. Poisson regression was used to test for interactions of sex, age (

Studies examining career satisfaction of biomedical scientists are limited, especially in the context of prior postdoctoral training. Here we focused on career satisfaction defined as satisfaction with one's career trajectory and perceived salary competitiveness among a predominantly Ph.D.-trained population of scientists who completed cancer prevention-related postdoctoral training between 1987-2011. National Cancer Institute (NCI) Cancer Prevention Fellowship Program (CPFP) alumni (n = 114), and previous recipients of NCI-sponsored Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (NRSA/F32) postdoctoral fellowships (n = 140) completed online surveys. Associations of career satisfaction and perception of salary competitiveness with demographic, training, and employment-related factors were examined using logistic regression. Overall, 61% reported high levels of satisfaction with their career trajectory to-date. Higher salary (odds ratio [OR] = 2.86, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.07-7.69) and having more leadership roles (OR = 2.26, 95% CI:1.04-4.90) were independently associated with higher career satisfaction. Persons with race/ethnicity other than white (OR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.20-0.82) or age ≥ 50 (OR = 0.40, 95%CI: 0.17-0.94) had lower career satisfaction levels. There were no statistically significant differences in career satisfaction levels by gender, scientific discipline, or employment sector. 74% perceived their current salary as competitive, but persons with 5-9, or ≥10 years in their current position reported lower levels (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.15-0.65; and OR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.16-0.87, respectively), as did individuals in government positions (OR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.11-0.98). These data add to the understanding of career satisfaction of those with advanced training in biomedical research by examining these measures in relation to prior postdoctoral research training and across multiple career sectors.

BackgroundThe benefits of endoscopic testing for colorectal-cancer screening are uncertain. We evaluated the effect of screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy on colorectal-cancer incidence and mortality. MethodsFrom 1993 through 2001, we randomly assigned 154,900 men and women 55 to 74 years of age either to screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy, with a repeat screening at 3 or 5 years, or to usual care. Cases of colorectal cancer and deaths from the disease were ascertained. ResultsOf the 77,445 participants randomly assigned to screening (intervention group), 83.5% underwent baseline flexible sigmoidoscopy and 54.0% were screened at 3 or 5 years. The incidence of colorectal cancer after a median follow-up of 11.9 years was 11.9 cases per 10,000 person-years in the intervention group (1012 cases), as compared with 15.2 cases per 10,000 person-years in the usual-care group (1287 cases), which represents a 21% reduction (relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 0.85; P

Purpose Estimates of prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM) were similar for men randomly assigned to intervention compared with usual care on the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian PC screening study. However, results analyzed by comorbidity strata remain unknown. Patients and Methods Between 1993 and 2001, of 76,693 men who were randomly assigned to usual care or intervention at 10 US centers, 73,378 (96%) completed a questionnaire that inquired about comorbidity and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing before random assignment. Fine and Gray's multivariable analysis was performed to assess whether the randomized screening arm was associated with the risk of PCSM in men with no or minimal versus at least one significant comorbidity, adjusting for age and prerandomization PSA testing. Results After 10 years of follow-up, 9,565 deaths occurred, 164 from PC. A significant decrease in the risk of PCSM (22 v 38 deaths; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.95; P = .03) was observed in men with no or minimal comorbidity randomly assigned to intervention versus usual care, and the additional number needed to treat to prevent one PC death at 10 years was five. Among men with at least one significant comorbidity, those randomly assigned to intervention versus usual care did not have a decreased risk of PCSM (62 v 42 deaths; AHR, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.96 to 2.11; P = .08). Conclusion Selective use of PSA screening for men in good health appears to reduce the risk of PCSM with minimal overtreatment.

The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) is a randomized multicenter study comparing low-dose helical computed tomography (CT) with chest radiography in the screening of older current and former heavy smokers for early detection of lung cancer, which is the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States. Five-year survival rates approach 70% with surgical resection of stage IA disease; however, more than 75% of individuals have incurable locally advanced or metastatic disease, the latter having a 5-year survival of less than 5%. It is plausible that treatment should be more effective and the likelihood of death decreased if asymptomatic lung cancer is detected through screening early enough in its preclinical phase. For these reasons, there is intense interest and intuitive appeal in lung cancer screening with low-dose CT. The use of survival as the determinant of screening effectiveness is, however, confounded by the well-described biases of lead time, length, and overdiagnosis. Despite previous attempts, no test has been shown to reduce lung cancer mortality, an endpoint that circumvents screening biases and provides a definitive measure of benefit when assessed in a randomized controlled trial that enables comparison of mortality rates between screened individuals and a control group that does not undergo the screening intervention of interest. The NLST is such a trial. The rationale for and design of the NLST are presented.

The effect of screening with prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination on the rate of death from prostate cancer is unknown. This is the first report from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial on prostate-cancer mortality.From 1993 through 2001, we randomly assigned 76,693 men at 10 U.S. study centers to receive either annual screening (38,343 subjects) or usual care as the control (38,350 subjects). Men in the screening group were offered annual PSA testing for 6 years and digital rectal examination for 4 years. The subjects and health care providers received the results and decided on the type of follow-up evaluation. Usual care sometimes included screening, as some organizations have recommended. The numbers of all cancers and deaths and causes of death were ascertained.In the screening group, rates of compliance were 85% for PSA testing and 86% for digital rectal examination. Rates of screening in the control group increased from 40% in the first year to 52% in the sixth year for PSA testing and ranged from 41 to 46% for digital rectal examination. After 7 years of follow-up, the incidence of prostate cancer per 10,000 person-years was 116 (2820 cancers) in the screening group and 95 (2322 cancers) in the control group (rate ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 1.29). The incidence of death per 10,000 person-years was 2.0 (50 deaths) in the screening group and 1.7 (44 deaths) in the control group (rate ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.70). The data at 10 years were 67% complete and consistent with these overall findings.After 7 to 10 years of follow-up, the rate of death from prostate cancer was very low and did not differ significantly between the two study groups. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00002540.)

Background: Previous studies have shown an inverse relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration and body mass index (BMI). It has been recently proposed that this relationship may be explained by the larger plasma volume of obese men diluting a fixed amount of PSA (hemodilution effect). We examined this hypothesis in a cohort of men enrolled in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Methods: Of 38,349 men ages 55 to 74 years randomized in PLCO to receive annual PSA and digital rectal examination screening, 28,380 had a baseline PSA, complete demographic information, and no prostate cancer diagnosis within 6 years from baseline. Self-reported height and weight were used to calculate BMI and to estimate plasma volume. PSA mass was estimated as PSA concentration times plasma volume. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between PSA concentration, plasma volume, PSA mass, and BMI. Results: PSA concentration significantly decreased with increasing BMI (P < 0.001); mean PSA values were 1.27, 1.25, 1.18, and 1.07 ng/mL among normal (BMI, 18.5-25), overweight (BMI, 25-30), obese (BMI, 30-35), and morbidly obese (BMI, >35) men, respectively. However, plasma volume also increased with increasing BMI and PSA mass showed no association with BMI, with mean values of 3.78, 3.95, 3.97, and 3.82 μg across the four BMI categories (P = 0.10). Conclusions: This study confirms earlier findings that the inverse relationship between PSA concentration and BMI may be explained by a hemodilution effect. These findings could have implications for prostate cancer screening in large men. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(3):748–51)

The purpose of this study was to examine the career paths of alumni from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Cancer Prevention Fellowship Program (CPFP), a structured in-house postdoctoral training program of 3-4 years duration, and specifically what proportion of the alumni were currently performing cancer prevention-related activities. The analyses here included 119 CPFP alumni and 85 unsuccessful CPFP applicants, all of whom completed postdoctoral training between 1987-2011 and are currently employed. Postdoctoral training experiences and current career outcomes data were collected via online surveys. Differences between groups were assessed using chi-square and Fisher's exact test p-values and subsequent regression analyses adjusted for differences between the groups. Compared to 15.3% of unsuccessful CPFP applicants, 52.1% of CPFP alumni (odds ratio [OR] = 4.99, 95% confidence interval [95% CI): 1.91-13.0) were currently spending the majority of their time working in cancer prevention. Among those doing any cancer prevention-focused work, 54.3% of CPFP alumni spent the majority of their time performing cancer prevention research activities when compared to 25.5% of unsuccessful applicants (OR = 4.26, 95% CI: 1.38-13.2). In addition to the independent effect of the NCI CPFP, scientific discipline, and employment sector were also associated with currently working in cancer prevention and involvement in cancer prevention research-related activities. These results from a structured postdoctoral training program are relevant not only to the cancer prevention community but also to those interested in evaluating alignment of postdoctoral training programs with available and desired career paths more broadly.

Estimation of the location parameters of a p×1 random vector X̲ with a spherically symmetric distribution is considered under quadratic loss. The conditions of Brandwein and Strawderman [Ann. Statist. 19(1991) 1639–1650] under which estimators of the form X̲+ag̲(X̲) dominate X̲are (i) ∥g̲∥2/2⩽-h⩽-▽∘g̲, where -h is superharmonic, (ii) Eθ̲[R2h(V̲)] is nonincreasing in R, where V̲ has a uniform distribution in the sphere centered at θ̲ with a radius R, and (iii) 0

Objective Ovarian cancer screening with transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) and CA-125 was evaluated in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Trial. Study design This was a randomized controlled trial of screening versus usual care. Baseline screening results are reported. Results Of 39,115 women randomized to receive screening, 28,816 received at least 1 test. Abnormal TVU was found in 1338 (4.7%), and abnormal CA-125 in 402 (1.4%). Twenty-nine neoplasms were identified (26 ovarian, 2 fallopian, and 1 primary peritoneal neoplasm). Nine were tumors of low malignant potential and 20 were invasive. The positive predictive value for invasive cancer was 3.7% for an abnormal CA-125, 1.0% for an abnormal TVU, and 23.5% if both tests were abnormal. Conclusion The effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality in the PLCO cohort has yet to be evaluated and will require longer follow-up. Screening identified both early- and late-stage neoplasms, and the predictive value of both tests was relatively low.

SummaryWe define a surrogate end point as a measure or indicator of a biological process that is obtained sooner, at less cost or less invasively than a true end point of health outcome and is used to make conclusions about the effect of an intervention on the true end point. Prentice presented criteria for valid hypothesis testing of a surrogate end point that replaces a true end point. For using the surrogate end point to estimate the predicted effect of intervention on the true end point, Day and Duffy assumed the Prentice criterion and arrived at two paradoxical results: the estimated predicted intervention effect by using a surrogate can give more precise estimates than the usual estimate of the intervention effect by using the true end point and the variance is greatest when the surrogate end point perfectly predicts the true end point. Begg and Leung formulated similar paradoxes and concluded that they indicate a flawed conceptual strategy arising from the Prentice criterion. We resolve the paradoxes as follows. Day and Duffy compared a surrogate-based estimate of the effect of intervention on the true end point with an estimate of the effect of intervention on the true end point that uses the true end point. Their paradox arose because the former estimate assumes the Prentice criterion whereas the latter does not. If both or neither of these estimates assume the Prentice criterion, there is no paradox. The paradoxes of Begg and Leung, although similar to those of Day and Duffy, arise from ignoring the variability of the parameter estimates irrespective of the Prentice criterion and disappear when the variability is included. Our resolution of the paradoxes provides a firm foundation for future meta-analytic extensions of the approach of Day and Duffy.

Bioinformatics, in its broad sense, involves application of computer processes to solve biological problems. A wide range of computational tools are needed to effectively and efficiently process large amounts of data being generated as a result of recent technological innovations in biology and medicine. A number of computational tools have been developed or adapted to deal with the experimental riches of complex and multivariate data and transition from data collection to information or knowledge. These include a wide variety of clustering and classification algorithms, including self-organized maps (SOM), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), fuzzy logic, and even hyphenated techniques as neuro-fuzzy networks. These bioinformatics tools are being evaluated and applied in various medical areas including early detection, risk assessment, classification, and prognosis of cancer. The goal of these efforts is to develop and identify bioinformatics methods with optimal sensitivity, specificity, and predictive capabilities.

A thorough discussion of the random forest (RF) algorithm as it relates to a SELDI-TOF proteomics study is presented, with special emphasis on its application for cancer prevention: specifically, what makes it an efficient, yet reliable classifier, and what makes it optimal among the many available approaches. The main body of the paper treats the particulars of how to successfully apply the RF algorithm in a proteomics profiling study to construct a classifier and discover peak intensities most likely responsible for the separation between the classes.

Objectives Older people with less education have substantially higher prevalence rates of mobility disability. This study aimed to establish the relative contributions of incidence, recovery rates, and death to prevalence differences in mobility disability associated with educational status. Methods Data were from 3 sites of the Established Populations for Epidemiological Study of the Elderly, covering 8,871 people aged 65-84 years who were followed for up to 7 years. Participants were classified on years of education received and as disabled if they needed help or were unable to walk up or down stairs or walk half a mile. A Markov model computed relative risks, adjusting for the effects of repeated observations on the same individuals. Results Differences between education groups in person-years lived with disability were large. The relative risk of incident disability in men with 0-7 years of education (vs. those with 12 or more years) was 1.65 (95% CI = 1.37-1.97) and in women was 1.70 (95% CI = 1.15-2.53). Both recovery risks and risks of death in those with disability were not significantly different across education groups in either gender. Discussion Higher incidence of disability is the main contributor to the substantially higher prevalence of disability in older people of lower socioeconomic status. Efforts to reduce the disparity in disability rates by socioeconomic status in old age should focus mainly on preventing disability, because differences in the course of mobility disability after onset appear to play a limited role in the observed prevalence disparities.

The effect of smoking and physical activity on active and disabled life expectancy was estimated using data from the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE). Population-based samples of persons aged > or = 65 years from the East Boston, Massachusetts, New Haven, Connecticut, and Iowa sites of the EPESE were assessed at baseline between 1981 and 1983 and followed for mortality and disability over six annual follow-ups. A total of 8,604 persons without disability at baseline were classified as "ever" or "never" smokers and doing "low," "moderate," or "high" level physical activity. Active and disabled life expectancies were estimated using a Markov chain model. Compared with smokers, men and women nonsmokers survived 1.6-3.9 and 1.6-3.6 years longer, respectively, depending on level of physical activity. When smokers were disabled and close to death, most nonsmokers were still nondisabled. Physical activity, from low to moderate to high, was significantly associated with more years of life expectancy in both smokers (9.5, 10.5, 12.9 years in men and 11.1, 12.6, 15.3 years in women at age 65) and nonsmokers (11.0, 14.4, 16.2 years in men and 12.7, 16.2, 18.4 years in women at age 65). Higher physical activity was associated with fewer years of disability prior to death. These findings provide strong and explicit evidence that refraining from smoking and doing regular physical activity predict a long and healthy life.

OBJECTIVES: This cohort study evaluated racial differences in mortality among Blacks and Whites 65 years and older. METHODS: A total of 4136 men and women (1875 Whites and 2261 Blacks) living in North Carolina were interviewed in 1986 and followed up for mortality until 1994. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated, with adjustment for sociodemographic and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. RESULTS: Black persons had higher mortality rates than Whites at young-old age (65-80 years) but had significantly lower mortality rates after age 80. Black persons age 80 or older had a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR of Blacks vs Whites, 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62, 0.90) and of CHD mortality (HR 0.44: 95% CI = 0.30, 0.66). These differences were not observed for other causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Racial differences in mortality are modified by age. This mortality crossover could be attributed to selective survival of the healthiest oldest Blacks or to other biomedical factors affecting longevity after age 80. Because the crossover was observed for CHD deaths only, age overreporting by Black older persons seems an unlikely explanation of the mortality differences.

Our aim was to study the association of lower limb strength with maximum walking speed in disabled older women and to try to detect the reserve capacity threshold for maximum walking speed and the minimum strength required for walking at a speed of 1.22 m x s(-1), which is required in crossing signaled intersections. The data are from the baseline of Women's Health and Aging Study, a population-based study on causes and course of disability. Altogether, 1,002 disabled women participated in the tests, which took place at their homes. Maximum isometric hip flexion and knee extension forces were measured on both sides using a handheld dynamometer. For analytic purposes, knee extension torque/body mass ratio (KET/BM) was calculated. Maximum walking speed was measured with a stopwatch during a 4-m walk. KET/BM had a significant effect on walking speed after controlling for number of chronic conditions, balance, use of walking aid, joint pain, age, and body height and mass. A total of 42.3% of the variation in maximum walking speed was explained by these variables. The cumulative percentage distribution of KET/BM of those able to attain a maximum walking speed of 1.22 m x s(-1) (n = 148) was flat to the level of 1.1 N x m x kg(-1), after which it turned upward, indicating that the probability of attaining 1.22 m x s(-1) started to increase after that level. By using segmented linear regression analysis, 2.3 N x m x kg(-1) was found to be the cutoff point beyond which an increase in KET/BM did not correspond to an increase in maximum walking speed. Muscle strength was positively but not linearly associated with maximum walking speed. Strength testing may help to identify people close to functional thresholds and, thus, at risk of impaired walking, who would benefit most from strengthening exercises.

The authors conduct a cross-national study of contraceptive discontinuation among currently married nonsterilized contracepting women in Bolivia Egypt Kenya Sri Lanka Thailand and Zimbabwe using the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Since the DHS contains no true completed epochs of contraceptive use the distribution of use times at survey is used to approximate the distribution of the completed epochs using the renewal theorem. Two techniques based on this approximation are used. The first technique uses local linear regression smoothing of a histogram estimate of the use time at survey pdf which is converted into an estimate of the discontinuation probability function. The second technique poses a proportional hazards Weibull distribution for the discontinuation probability function which is then converted into a model for the use times at survey. This second technique is used to model the observed variations in use across countries while controlling for other sociodemographic factors such as children ever born age and education as well as a variable which encodes knowledge of the fertility cycle. Pill discontinuation probabilities range from 0.12 to 0.47 in the first year. IUD discontinuation probabilities range from 0.18 to 0.53 in the first year. Discontinuation probabilities in Egypt over all methods are in agreement with those reported in Ali and Cleland (1995). Logged relative risks of pill discontinuation range from -0.94 (Sri Lanka) to 0 (Kenya) while logged relative risks of IUD discontinuation range from -0.53 (Sri Lanka) to 0.41 (Zimbabwe). The ordering of risks of pill discontinuation among the six countries considered is in agreement with the ordering of total fertility rates excerpted from Westoff (1991). (authors)

Recently, selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (SRM-MS) has been more frequently applied to measure low abundance biomarker candidates in tissues and biofluids, owing to its high sensitivity and specificity, simplicity of assay configuration, and exceptional multiplexing capability. In this study, we report for the first time the development of immunoaffinity depletion-based workflows and SRM-MS assays that enable sensitive and accurate quantification of total and free prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in serum without the requirement for specific PSA antibodies. Low ng/mL level detection of both total and free PSA was consistently achieved in both PSA-spiked female serum samples and actual patient serum samples. Moreover, comparison of the results obtained when SRM PSA assays and conventional immunoassays were applied to the same samples showed good correlation in several independent clinical serum sample sets. These results demonstrate that the workflows and SRM assays developed here provide an attractive alternative for reliably measuring candidate biomarkers in human blood, without the need to develop affinity reagents. Furthermore, the simultaneous measurement of multiple biomarkers, including the free and bound forms of PSA, can be performed in a single multiplexed analysis using high-resolution liquid chromatographic separation coupled with SRM-MS. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Translational Proteomics.

The prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial was undertaken to determine whether there is a reduction in prostate cancer mortality from screening using serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination (DRE). Mortality after 7-10 years of follow-up has been reported previously. We report extended follow-up to 13 years after the trial.A total of 76 685 men, aged 55-74 years, were enrolled at 10 screening centers between November 1993 and July 2001 and randomly assigned to the intervention (organized screening of annual PSA testing for 6 years and annual DRE for 4 years; 38 340 men) and control (usual care, which sometimes included opportunistic screening; 38 345 men) arms. Screening was completed in October 2006. All incident prostate cancers and deaths from prostate cancer through 13 years of follow-up or through December 31, 2009, were ascertained. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated as the ratio of observed rates in the intervention and control arms, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of events. Poisson regression modeling was used to examine the interactions with respect to prostate cancer mortality between trial arm and age, comorbidity status, and pretrial PSA testing. All statistical tests were two-sided.Approximately 92% of the study participants were followed to 10 years and 57% to 13 years. At 13 years, 4250 participants had been diagnosed with prostate cancer in the intervention arm compared with 3815 in the control arm. Cumulative incidence rates for prostate cancer in the intervention and control arms were 108.4 and 97.1 per 10 000 person-years, respectively, resulting in a relative increase of 12% in the intervention arm (RR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.17). After 13 years of follow-up, the cumulative mortality rates from prostate cancer in the intervention and control arms were 3.7 and 3.4 deaths per 10 000 person-years, respectively, resulting in a non-statistically significant difference between the two arms (RR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.36). No statistically significant interactions with respect to prostate cancer mortality were observed between trial arm and age (P(interaction) = .81), pretrial PSA testing (P(interaction) = .52), and comorbidity (P(interaction) = .68).After 13 years of follow-up, there was no evidence of a mortality benefit for organized annual screening in the PLCO trial compared with opportunistic screening, which forms part of usual care, and there was no apparent interaction with age, baseline comorbidity, or pretrial PSA testing.

BACKGROUND: Because of its relatively low incidence, bladder cancer screening might have a better ratio of benefits to harms if it is restricted to a high-risk population. Data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial were used and simple decision analytic techniques were applied to compare different eligibility criteria for a screening trial. METHODS: For a variety of possible eligibility criteria, the percentage of the population aged 55 years to 74 years and classified as being at high risk for developing invasive or high-grade carcinoma, and therefore likely to benefit from screening, was calculated. Regression models were used to calculate a risk score based on age, sex, smoking history, and family history of bladder cancer. The reduction in cases was calculated given hypothetical risk reductions associated with screening. The trade-off between patients screened and tumors avoided was calculated as a net benefit. RESULTS: The 5-year probability of being diagnosed with invasive bladder cancer was 0.24%. Using a risk score > 6 or > 8 as the eligibility criterion for a trial was generally superior to including all older adults. In a typical scenario, a risk score > 6 would result in approximately 25% of the population being screened to prevent 57 invasive or high-grade bladder cancers per 100,000 population; screening the entire population would prevent only an additional 38 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for bladder cancer can be optimized by restricting it to a subgroup of patients considered to be at elevated risk. Different eligibility criteria for a screening trial can be compared rationally using decision-analytic techniques. Cancer 2013. © 2012 American Cancer Society.

There has been great recent interest in the medical and statistical literature in the assessment and validation of surrogate endpoints as proxies for clinical endpoints in medical studies. More recently, authors have focused on using metaanalytical methods for quantification of surrogacy. In this article, we extend existing procedures for analysis based on the accelerated failure time model to this setting. An advantage of this approach relative to proportional hazards model is that it allows for analysis in the semicompeting risks setting, where we model the region where the surrogate endpoint occurs before the true endpoint. Several estimation methods and attendant inferential procedures are presented. In addition, between-and within-trial methods for evaluating surrogacy are developed; a novel principal components procedure is developed for quantifying trial-level surrogacy. The methods are illustrated by application to data from several studies in colorectal cancer.

In this paper we consider a group sequentially monitored trial on a survival endpoint, monitored using a weighted log-rank (WLR) statis- tic with deterministic weight function. We introduce a summary statistic in the form of a weighted average logged relative risk and show that if there is no sign change in the instantaneous logged relative risk, there always ex- ists a bijection between the WLR statistic and the weighted average logged relative risk. We show that this bijection can be consistently estimated at each analysis under a suitable shape assumption, for which we have listed two possibilities. We indicate how to derive a design-adjusted p-value and confidence interval and suggest how to apply the bias-correction method. Finally, we document several decisions made in the design of the NLST interim analysis plan and in reporting its results on the primary endpoint. AMS 2000 subject classifications: Primary 62L12, 62L12; secondary 62N022.

OBJECTIVE To describe the results of the first four rounds (T0-T3) of prostate cancer screening in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial (designed to determine the value of screening in the four cancers), that for prostate cancer is evaluating whether annual screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and a digital rectal examination (DRE) reduces prostate cancer-specific mortality. SUBJECTS AND METHODS In all, 38 349 men aged 55–74 years were randomized to undergo annual screening with PSA (abnormal >4.0 ng/mL) and a DRE. The follow-up of abnormal screening results was at the discretion of subjects’ physicians. PLCO staff obtained records related to diagnostic follow-up of positive screen results. RESULTS Compliance with screening decreased slightly from 89% at baseline to 85% at T3. Both PSA positivity rates (range 7.7–8.8% at T0-T3) and DRE positivity rates (range 6.8–7.6% at T0-T3) were relatively constant over time. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a PSA level of >4.0 ng/mL decreased from 17.9% at T0 to 10.4–12.3% at T1-T3; the PPV for DRE (in the absence of a positive PSA test) was constant over time (2.9–3.6%). Cancer was diagnosed in 1902 men (4.9%). Screen-detected cancers at T0 (549) were more likely to be clinical stage III/IV (5.8%) and to have a Gleason score of 7–10 (34%) than screen-detected cancers at T1-T3 (1.5–4.2% stage III/IV and 24–27% Gleason score 7–10 among 1054 cases). CONCLUSION The present findings on serial prostate screening are similar to those reported from other multi-round screening studies. Determining the effect of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality awaits further follow-up.

DHEA is widely used as a dietary supplement in older men. Because DHEA can be converted to androgens or estrogens, such use may promote prostate cancer. In this study, the effects of DHEA were compared with those of DHT using gene expression array profiles in human LNCaP prostate cancer cells.LNCaP cells were exposed to DHEA (300 nM), DHT (300 nM), or vehicle for 48 h, and mRNA expression was measured using Affymetrix HU-95 gene chips. Gene expression values were sorted in ascending order on the p-values corresponding to the extent of differential RNA expression between control and either hormone treatment.S100 calcium binding protein, neurotensin, 24-dehydrocholesterol reductase, and anterior-gradient 2 homologue were the four most differentially expressed genes (p-values all3 x 10(-5)). Nested tests of differential expression revealed lesser effects of DHEA versus DHT treatment (p0.01) for the S100 calcium binding protein and neurotensin genes. Microarray findings were confirmed by QRT-PCR. The top 83 genes exhibiting differential expression after DHEA or DHT were used for pathway analysis. DHT decreased expression of more genes involved in intercellular communication, signal transduction, nucleic acid binding and transport, and in structural components, such as myosin and golgin, than DHEA.These data revealed consistent, measurable changes in gene expression patterns following treatment of LNCaP prostate cancer cells with DHEA and DHT. Understanding the mechanisms of DHEA versus DHT actions in the prostate may help clarify the separate and interactive effects of androgenic and estrogenic actions in prostate cancer progression.

Background The benefit of screening for prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination (DRE) is uncertain and is under evaluation in a randomized prospective trial, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Although the final results are several years away, the initial round of screening is complete. We describe the population enrolled in the PLCO trial, their baseline PSA and DRE screening results, and diagnostic follow-up results during the first year of follow-up. Methods A total of 38,350 men were randomly assigned to the screening arm of the PLCO trial from November 1993 through June 2001. Men were advised to seek diagnostic follow-up from their primary care provider if their DRE was suspicious for cancer and/or if their serum PSA level was higher than 4 ng/mL. PLCO trial staff obtained records related to diagnostic follow-up. Results Compliance with both screening tests was high (more than 89%). At screening, 7.5% of men had a positive DRE (i.e., suspicious for cancer) and 7.9% had a PSA level higher than 4 ng/mL. Of the men with positive screening tests, 74.2% underwent additional diagnostic testing, and 31.5% underwent a prostatic biopsy within 1 year. Overall, 1.4% of the men in the screening arm were diagnosed with prostate cancer, the majority of whom had clinically localized cancer. These compliance, biopsy, and cancer detection rates appear to be representative of contemporary practice patterns. Conclusion The PLCO trial is evaluating PSA- and DRE-based screening for prostate cancer in a clinically valid manner. Whether such screening will result in a reduction of prostate cancer mortality cannot be answered until the randomized comparison is completed.

Objective: This paper presents a methodology for piecing together disparate data sources to obtain a comprehensive model for the use of mammography screening in the US population for the years 1975 – 2000. Methods: Two aspects of mammography usage, the age that a woman receives her first mammography and the interval between subsequent mammograms, are modeled separately. The initial dissemination of mammography is based on cross-sectional self report data from national surveys and the interval length between screening exams is fit using longitudinal mammography registry data. Results: The two aspects of mammography usage are combined to simulate screening histories for individual women that are representative of the US population. Simulated mammography patterns for the years 1994 – 2000 were found to be similar to observed screening patterns from the state level mammography registry for Vermont. Conclusions: The model presented gives insight into screening practices over time and provides an alternative public health measure for screening usage in the US population. The comprehensive description of mammography use from its introduction represents an important first step to understanding the impact of mammography on breast cancer incidence and mortality.

Cyclooxygenase-2 is a valid target for cancer prevention and treatment. This has been shown in preclinical and clinical cancer prevention studies by using a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor, celecoxib. When used in a randomized cancer prevention clinical trial on patients with the inherited autosomal dominant condition, familial adenomatous polyposis, celecoxib proved efficacious. However, a remarkable heterogeneity in patients’ responses to the chemopreventive effects of celecoxib was observed. Proteomic profiling of sera from these patients identified several markers, the expression of which was specifically modulated after treatment with celecoxib. A decision tree algorithm identified classifiers for response to celecoxib with relatively high sensitivity but moderate to low specificity. In particular, a spectral feature at m/z 16,961.4 was identified as a strong discriminator between response and nonresponse to celecoxib at the highest dose.

In many community-based studies on the incidence of dementia, a target population is screened and a subsample is clinically evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Incidence rates are affected by missed cases at both exams and this complicates the estimation of these rates. Recent work proposes a regression-based technique for joint estimation of prevalence and incidence and suggests the use of surrogate information obtained on the entire cohort at both times to calculate the expected score equation contribution for individuals missing clinical exams at one or both times. This helps to quantify the impact of missed diagnosis upon the incidence estimates and their confidence intervals. We extend this work to the setting of subtypes of dementia for use in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study on incidence of dementia. The technique is applied using two separate models for the effect of age on dementia incidence. Subsequently, shrinkage estimation methods are applied to provide more precise estimates of the rates. Published in 2000 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Active life expectancy (ALE) at a given age is defined as the expected remaining years free of disability. In this study, three categories of health status are defined according to the ability to perform activities of daily living independently. Several studies have used increment-decrement life tables to estimate ALE, without error analysis, from only a baseline and one follow-up interview. The present work conducts an individual-level covariate analysis using a three-state Markov chain model for multiple follow-up data. Using a logistic link, the model estimates single-year transition probabilities among states of health, accounting for missing interviews. This approach has the advantages of smoothing subsequent estimates and increased power by using all follow-ups. We compute ALE and total life expectancy from these estimated single-year transition probabilities. Variance estimates are computed using the delta method. Data from the Iowa Established Population for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly are used to test the effects of smoking on ALE on all 5-year age groups past 65 years, controlling for sex and education.

Objectives. This study examined sex differences in the prevalence of mobility disability in older adults according to the influences of three components of prevalence: disability incidence, recovery from disability, and mortality. Methods. Participants in a population-based study of older adults from three communities in the United States (N= 10,263) were studied for up to 7 years. Life table methods were used to estimate the influence of each of the three components of disability prevalence in women and men. Sex differences in probabilities for transition states were measured by relative risks derived from a single model using a Markov chain approach. Results. The proportion of disabled women increased from 22% of women aged 70 years to 81% of those aged 90 years. In men, comparable figures were 15% and 57%. Incidence had the greatest impact on the sex differences in disability prevalence until age 90 and older when recovery rates had a greater impact on differences in prevalence. Mortality differences in men and women had only a modest impact on sex differences in disability prevalence. These findings initially seemed to contradict striking sex differences observed in the relative risks for mortality in men compared with women. Subsequent graphical analyses showed that incidence rather than recovery or mortality largely accounted for sex differences in disability prevalence in old age. Conclusion. Disability incidence, recovery from disability, and mortality dynamically influence the sex differences in the prevalence of mobility disability. However, incidence has the greatest impact overall on the higher prevalence of disability in women compared with men.

The aim of this study was to describe changes in grip strength over a follow-up period of ∼27 yr and to study the associations of rate of strength decline with weight change and chronic conditions. The data are from the Honolulu Heart Program, a prospective population-based study established in 1965. Participants at exam 1 were 8,006 men (ages 45–68 yr) who were of Japanese ancestry and living in Hawaii. At follow-up, 3,741 men (age range, 71–96 yr) participated. Those who died before the follow-up showed significantly lower grip-strength values at baseline than did the survivors. The average annualized strength change among the survivors was −1.0%. Steeper decline (>1.5%/yr) was associated with older age at baseline, greater weight decrease, and chronic conditions such as stroke, diabetes, arthritis, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The risk factors for having very low hand-grip strength at follow-up, here termed grip-strength disability (≤21 kg, the lowest 10th percentile), were largely same as those for steep strength decline. However, the age-adjusted correlation between baseline and follow-up strength was strong ( r = 0.557, P < 0.001); i.e., those who showed greater grip strength at baseline were also likely to do so 27 yr later. Consequently, those in the lowest grip-strength tertile at baseline had about eight times greater risk of grip-strength disability than those in the highest tertile because of their lower reserve of strength. In old age, maintenance of optimal body mass may help prevent steep strength decrease and poor absolute strength.