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Advances in diagnostics and therapeutics have brought the elimination of chronic viral hepatitis into focus. The World Health Organization has defined the targets for elimination, but it is unclear how these can be achieved and how they should be measured. The goal of this special conference was to examine current efforts and metrics to assess progress towards elimination.

PurposePeople experiencing homelessness often have complex needs requiring a range of support. These may include health problems (physical illness, mental health and/or substance misuse) as well as social, financial and housing needs. Addressing these issues requires a high degree of coordination amongst services. It is, thus, an example of a wicked policy issue. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenge of integrating care in this context using evidence from an evaluation of English hospital discharge services for people experiencing homelessness.Design/methodology/approachThe paper undertakes secondary analysis of qualitative data from a mixed methods evaluation of hospital discharge schemes and uses an established framework for understanding integrated care, the Rainbow Model of Integrated Care (RMIC), to help examine the complexities of integration in this area.FindingsSupporting people experiencing homelessness to have a good discharge from hospital was confirmed as a wicked policy issue. The RMIC provided a strong framework for exploring the concept of integration, demonstrating how intertwined the elements of the framework are and, hence, that solutions need to be holistically organised across the RMIC. Limitations to integration were also highlighted, such as shortages of suitable accommodation and the impacts of policies in aligned areas of the welfare state.Research limitations/implicationsThe data for this secondary analysis were not specifically focussed on integration which meant the themes in the RMIC could not be explored directly nor in as much depth. However, important issues raised in the data directly related to integration of support, and the RMIC emerged as a helpful organising framework for understanding integration in this wicked policy context.Practical implicationsIntegration is happening in services directly concerned with the discharge from hospital of people experiencing homelessness. Key challenges to this integration are reported in terms of the RMIC, which would be a helpful framework for planning better integrated care for this area of practice.Social implicationsAddressing homelessness not only requires careful planning of integration of services at specific pathway points, such as hospital discharge, but also integration across wider systems. A complex set of challenges are discussed to help with planning the better integration desired, and the RMIC was seen as a helpful framework for thinking about key issues and their interactions.Originality/valueThis paper examines an application of integrated care knowledge to a key complex, or wicked policy issue.

Achieving global elimination of hepatitis C virus requires a substantial scale-up of testing. Point-of-care HCV viral load assays are available as an alternative to laboratory-based assays to promote access in hard to reach or marginalized populations. The diagnostic performance and lower limit of detection are important attributes of these new assays for both diagnosis and test of cure. Therefore, our objective was to determine an acceptable LLoD for detectable HCV viraemia as a test for cure, 12weeks post-treatment (SVR12). We assembled a global data set of patients with detectable viraemia at SVR12 from observational databases from 9 countries (Egypt, the United States, United Kingdom, Georgia, Ukraine, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan, Mozambique) and two pharmaceutical-sponsored clinical trial registries. We examined the distribution of HCV viral load at SVR12 and presented the 90th, 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles. We used logistic regression to assess characteristics associated with low-level virological treatment failure (defined as

Worldwide eradication of chronic hepatitis B and C viruses by 2030 is a stated goal of the World Health Organization, UK government and the European Union. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening vs opportunistic screening for hepatitis B and C among migrant populations in the UK. Results of a previous clinical trial (HepFREE) carried out in London and Bradford were used to develop a combined decision tree and Markov simulation model. Despite a low response to invitations for vaccination, and a heterogeneous level of response between communities of different ethnic composition, this analysis shows that incentivised targeted screening is cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds over £8540 per incremental quality-adjusted life year over a lifetime. Furthermore, probabilistic analysis of input parameter uncertainty suggests that the intervention has a greater than 95% probability of being cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds under £30 000 per incremental quality-adjusted life year. These results strongly suggest that targeted screening should play a key part in the eradication of the hepatitis B and C viruses.

Background & Aims Despite recent advances in antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV), a proportion of patients with genotype 3 (G3) HCV infection do not respond to current all oral treatment regimens. Genomic analyses have identified key polymorphisms correlating with increased resistance to direct-acting antivirals. We previously reported that amino acid polymorphisms (A150V and K206E) in the polymerase (NS5B) of G3 HCV reduce response to sofosbuvir. We now demonstrate that these polymorphisms alter the response to interferon alpha. Methods Quantitative polymerase chain reaction, immunofluorescence, luciferase activity assay, immunoblotting, and flow cytometry were used to study the antiviral effect of interferon (IFN) on DBN G3 HCV-infected cells and G3 HCV replicons. Results We show the presence of the A150V polymorphism markedly reduces the response to IFN alpha (IC50 of S52_WT = 1.162 IU/mL and IC50 of S52_A150V = 14.45 IU/mL, 12.4-fold difference). The induction of IFN-stimulated genes in A150V replicon cells is unaffected, but nuclear localization of active protein kinase R (PKR) is reduced. Blockade of PKR activity reduced the antiviral effect of IFN on wild-type replicons, whereas augmented PKR activation promoted the antiviral effect of IFN on A150V replicons. Furthermore, we show that impaired activation of PKR in A150V replicon cells diminishes cellular apoptosis. Conclusions These results demonstrate that polymorphisms reducing response rates to direct-acting antivirals may function beyond conferring drug resistance by modulating the intrinsic cellular antiviral response.

Background In England, choice of hepatitis C therapy is determined by national contracts that change with time, facilitating comparisons between different regimens. England has a diverse population with hepatitis C including large proportions of uncommon viral genotypes. Aim To evaluate efficacy of directly acting anti-viral treatments for hepatitis C in England using real-world data from the national treatment registry. Methods Sustained virological response (SVR) rates 12 weeks after treatment completion for patients treated between 2014 and August 2018 who attended for SVR tests were analysed in univariate subgroups using Chi-squared tests. Multivariate models were constructed with clinically relevant variables to determine predictors of SVR and evaluate the impact of treatment regimens. Results SVR data were available on 14,603 treated patients. The overall SVR rate was 95.59% [95% CI 95.25%-95.91%]. Multivariable regression modelling in patients with genotype 1 infection showed that the odds of SVR with elbasvir/grazoprevir were higher than for those treated with sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (OR 1.891, 95% CI 1.072-3.336, P = 0.028). For genotype 3, we found no significant difference between any of the treatment regimens. Patients who completed at least one third of the planned treatment duration achieved SVR rates in excess of 80%. Conclusions All of the currently licensed hepatitis C direct-acting anti-viral regimens had similar efficacy (>95%) in an unselected population. Noncompletion of planned treatment duration still resulted in over 80% SVR rates provided that more than one third of treatment was completed.

Many people with chronic hepatitis C infection don’t engage in treatment. To eliminate hepatitis C and avoid health inequalities therapy must be provided to everyone. In other diseases peers with lived experience of the condition have improved care but, for hepatitis C, studies have not shown unequivocal benefit. We completed a retrospective analysis of the English National Health Service treatment registry comparing treatment networks with and without peers using Bayesian Poisson (for count outcomes) or Bayesian Binomial (for proportion outcomes) mixed effects models with time fixed effects. For each outcome, we estimated relative ratio (RR - Poisson model) or odds ratio (OR - Binomial model) between peer and non-peer networks. We analysed 30,729 patients within 20 operational delivery networks. In networks with peers there was an increase in the number of people initiating therapy (RR 1.12 95%, credible interval 1.02 to 1.21) and an increase in the proportion completing therapy (OR 2.45 95%, credible interval 1.49 to 3.84). However, we saw no change in proportions of people using drugs who initiated therapy nor any significant change in virological response (OR 1.14 95% credible interval 0.979-1.36). We repeated the analysis looking at the impact of peers two months after they had been introduced, when they had established networks of contacts, and saw an increase in the proportion of people treated in addiction services. In treating patients with chronic hepatitis C infection the inclusion of peer supporters may increase the number of people who initiate and complete antiviral therapy.

Background An Informatics Consult has been proposed in which clinicians request novel evidence from large scale health data resources, tailored to the treatment of a specific patient. However, the availability of such consultations is lacking. We seek to provide an Informatics Consult for a situation where a treatment indication and contraindication coexist in the same patient, i.e., anti-coagulation use for stroke prevention in a patient with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and liver cirrhosis. Methods We examined four sources of evidence for the effect of warfarin on stroke risk or all-cause mortality from: (1) randomised controlled trials (RCTs), (2) meta-analysis of prior observational studies, (3) trial emulation (using population electronic health records (N = 3,854,710) and (4) genetic evidence (Mendelian randomisation). We developed prototype forms to request an Informatics Consult and return of results in electronic health record systems. Results We found 0 RCT reports and 0 trials recruiting for patients with AF and cirrhosis. We found broad concordance across the three new sources of evidence we generated. Meta-analysis of prior observational studies showed that warfarin use was associated with lower stroke risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.71, CI 0.39–1.29). In a target trial emulation, warfarin was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.61, CI 0.49–0.76) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.27, CI 0.08–0.91). Mendelian randomisation served as a drug target validation where we found that lower levels of vitamin K1 (warfarin is a vitamin K1 antagonist) are associated with lower stroke risk. A pilot survey with an independent sample of 34 clinicians revealed that 85% of clinicians found information on prognosis useful and that 79% thought that they should have access to the Informatics Consult as a service within their healthcare systems. We identified candidate steps for automation to scale evidence generation and to accelerate the return of results. Conclusion We performed a proof-of-concept Informatics Consult for evidence generation, which may inform treatment decisions in situations where there is dearth of randomised trials. Patients are surprised to know that their clinicians are currently not able to learn in clinic from data on ‘patients like me’. We identify the key challenges in offering such an Informatics Consult as a service.

Background People with liver disease are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, there has yet been an investigation of incidence burden, risk, and premature mortality across a wide range of liver conditions and cardiovascular outcomes. Methods We employed population-wide electronic health records (EHRs; from 1998 to 2020) consisting of almost 4 million adults to assess regional variations in disease burden of five liver conditions, alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, chronic hepatitis B infection (HBV), chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) and NAFLD, in England. We analysed regional differences in incidence rates for 17 manifestations of CVD in people with or without liver disease. The associations between biomarkers and comorbidities and risk of CVD in patients with liver disease were estimated using Cox models. For each liver condition, we estimated excess years of life lost (YLL) attributable to CVD (i.e., difference in YLL between people with or without CVD). Results The age-standardised incidence rate for any liver disease was 114.5 per 100,000 person years. The highest incidence was observed in NAFLD (85.5), followed by ALD (24.7), HCV (6.0), HBV (4.1) and autoimmune liver disease (3.7). Regionally, the North West and North East regions consistently exhibited high incidence burden. Age-specific incidence rate analyses revealed that the peak incidence for liver disease of non-viral aetiology is reached in individuals aged 50–59 years. Patients with liver disease had a two-fold higher incidence burden of CVD (2634.6 per 100,000 persons) compared to individuals without liver disease (1339.7 per 100,000 persons). When comparing across liver diseases, atrial fibrillation was the most common initial CVD presentation while hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was the least common. We noted strong positive associations between body mass index and current smoking and risk of CVD. Patients who also had diabetes, hypertension, proteinuric kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, diverticular disease and gastro-oesophageal reflex disorders had a higher risk of CVD, as do patients with low albumin, raised C-reactive protein and raised International Normalized Ratio levels. All types of CVD were associated with shorter life expectancies. When evaluating excess YLLs by age of CVD onset and by liver disease type, differences in YLLs, when comparing across CVD types, were more pronounced at younger ages. Conclusions We developed a public online app (https://lailab.shinyapps.io/cvd_in_liver_disease/) to showcase results interactively. We provide a blueprint that revealed previously underappreciated clinical factors related to the risk of CVD, which differed in the magnitude of effects across liver diseases. We found significant geographical variations in the burden of liver disease and CVD, highlighting the need to devise local solutions. Targeted policies and regional initiatives addressing underserved communities might help improve equity of access to CVD screening and treatment.

Background In 2013, 70% of people who were homeless on admission to hospital were discharged back to the street without having their care and support needs addressed. In response, the UK government provided funding for 52 new specialist homeless hospital discharge schemes. This study employed RAMESES II (Realist And Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards) guidelines between September 2015 and 2019 to undertake a realist evaluation to establish what worked, for whom, under what circumstances and why. It was hypothesised that delivering outcomes linked to consistently safe, timely care transfers for homeless patients would depend on hospital discharge schemes implementing a series of high-impact changes (resource mechanisms). These changes encompassed multidisciplinary discharge co-ordination (delivered through clinically led homeless teams) and ‘step-down’ intermediate care. These facilitated time-limited care and support and alternative pathways out of hospital for people who could not go straight home. Methods The realist hypothesis was tested empirically and refined through three work packages. Work package 1 generated seven qualitative case studies, comparing sites with different types of specialist homeless hospital discharge schemes (n = 5) and those with no specialist discharge scheme (standard care) (n = 2). Methods of data collection included interviews with 77 practitioners and stakeholders and 70 people who were homeless on admission to hospital. A ‘data linkage’ process (work package 2) and an economic evaluation (work package 3) were also undertaken. The data linkage process resulted in data being collected on > 3882 patients from 17 discharge schemes across England. The study involved people with lived experience of homelessness in all stages. Results There was strong evidence to support our realist hypothesis. Specialist homeless hospital discharge schemes employing multidisciplinary discharge co-ordination and ‘step-down’ intermediate care were more effective and cost-effective than standard care. Specialist care was shown to reduce delayed transfers of care. Accident and emergency visits were also 18% lower among homeless patients discharged at a site with a step-down service than at those without. However, there was an impact on the effectiveness of the schemes when they were underfunded or when there was a shortage of permanent supportive housing and longer-term care and support. In these contexts, it remained (tacitly) accepted practice (across both standard and specialist care sites) to discharge homeless patients to the streets, rather than delay their transfer. We found little evidence that discharge schemes fired a change in reasoning with regard to the cultural distance that positions ‘homeless patients’ as somehow less vulnerable than other groups of patients. We refined our hypothesis to reflect that high-impact changes need to be underpinned by robust adult safeguarding. Strengths and limitations To our knowledge, this is the largest study of the outcomes of homeless patients discharged from hospital in the UK. Owing to issues with the comparator group, the effectiveness analysis undertaken for the data linkage was limited to comparisons of different types of specialist discharge scheme (rather than specialist vs. standard care). Future work There is a need to consider approaches that align with those for value or alliance-based commissioning where the evaluative gaze is shifted from discrete interventions to understanding how the system is working as a whole to deliver outcomes for a defined patient population. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

This report presents further evidence on the escalating alcohol consumption in the UK and the burden of liver disease associated with this major risk factor, as well as the effects on hospital and primary care. We reiterate the need for fiscal regulation by the UK Government if overall alcohol consumption is to be reduced sufficiently to improve health outcomes. We also draw attention to the effects of drastic cuts in public services for alcohol treatment, the repeated failures of voluntary agreements with the drinks industry, and the influence of the industry through its lobbying activities. We continue to press for reintroduction of the alcohol duty escalator, which was highly effective during the 5 years it was in place, and the introduction of minimum unit pricing in England, targeted at the heaviest drinkers. Results from the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, with results from Wales to follow, are likely to seriously expose the weakness of England's position. The increasing prevalence of obesity-related liver disease, the rising number of people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and its complications, and increasing number of cases of end-stage liver disease and primary liver cancers from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease make apparent the need for an obesity strategy for adults. We also discuss the important effects of obesity and alcohol on disease progression, and the increased risk of the ten most common cancers (including breast and colon cancers). A new in-depth analysis of the UK National Health Service (NHS) and total societal costs shows the extraordinarily large expenditures that could be saved or redeployed elsewhere in the NHS. Excellent results have been reported for new antiviral drugs for hepatitis C virus infection, making elimination of chronic infection a real possibility ahead of the WHO 2030 target. However, the extent of unidentified cases remains a problem, and will also apply when new curative drugs for hepatitis B virus become available. We also describe efforts to improve standards of hospital care for liver disease with better understanding of current service deficiencies and a new accreditation process for hospitals providing liver services. New commissioning arrangements for primary and community care represent progress, in terms of effective screening of high-risk subjects and the early detection of liver disease.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection serves as an important diagnostic marker for past SARS-CoV-2 infection and is essential to determine the spread of COVID-19, monitor potential COVID-19 long-term effects, and to evaluate possible protection from reinfection. A study was conducted across three hospital sites in a large central London NHS Trust in the UK, to evaluate the prevalence and duration of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody positivity in healthcare workers.Methods: A matrix equivalence study consisting of 228 participants was undertaken to evaluate the Abbott Panbio™ COVID-19 IgG/IgM rapid test device. Subsequently, 2001 evaluable healthcare workers (HCW), representing a diverse population, were enrolled in a HCW study between June and August 2020. A plasma sample from each HCW was evaluated using the Abbott Panbio™ COVID-19 IgG/IgM rapid test device, with confirmation of IgG-positive results by the Abbott ArchitectTM SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay. 545 participants, of whom 399 were antibody positive at enrolment, were followed up at 3 months.Results: The Panbio™ COVID-19 IgG/IgM rapid test device demonstrated a high concordance with laboratory tests. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected in 506 participants (25.3%) at enrolment, with a higher prevalence in COVID-19 frontline (28.3%) than non-frontline (19.9%) staff. At follow-up, 274/399 antibody positive participants (68.7%) retained antibodies; 4/146 participants negative at enrolment (2.7%) had seroconverted. Non-white ethnicity, older age, hypertension and COVID-19 symptoms were independent predictors of higher antibody levels (OR 1.881, 2.422–3.034, 2.128, and 1.869 respectively), based on Architect™ index quartiles; participants in the first three categories also showed a greater antibody persistence at 3 months.Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid IgG positivity rate among healthcare staff was high, declining by 31.3% during the 3-month follow-up interval. Interestingly, the IgG-positive participants with certain risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness (older age, Black or Asian Ethnicity hypertension) demonstrated greater persistence over time when compared to the IgG-positive participants without these risk factors.

The 69th World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis, embracing a goal to eliminate hepatitis infection as a public health threat by 2030. This was followed by the World Health Organization's (WHO) global targets for the care and management of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. These announcements and targets were important in raising awareness and calling for action; however, tracking countries’ progress towards these elimination goals has provided insights to the limitations of these targets. The existing targets compare a country's progress relative to its 2015 values, penalizing countries who started their programmes prior to 2015, countries with a young population, or countries with a low prevalence. We recommend that (1) WHO simplify the hepatitis elimination targets, (2) change to absolute targets and (3) allow countries to achieve these disease targets with their own service coverage initiatives that will have the maximum impact. The recommended targets are as follows: reduce HCV new chronic cases to ≤5 per 100000, reduce HBV prevalence among 1-year-olds to ≤0.1%, reduce HBV and HCV mortality to ≤5 per 100000, and demonstrate HBV and HCV year-to-year decrease in new HCV- and HBV-related HCC cases. The objective of our recommendations is not to lower expectations or diminish the hepatitis elimination standards, but to provide clearer targets that recognize the past and current elimination efforts by countries, help measure progress towards true elimination, and motivate other countries to follow suit.

Background & aims: Genome-wide association studies in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have failed to find X chromosome (chrX) variants associated with the disease. Here, we specifically explore the chrX contribution to PBC, a sexually dimorphic complex autoimmune disease. Methods: We performed a chrX-wide association study, including genotype data from 5 genome-wide association studies (from Italy, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Japan; 5244 case patients and 11,875 control individuals). Results: Single-marker association analyses found approximately 100 loci displaying P < 5 × 10-4, with the most significant being a signal within the OTUD5 gene (rs3027490; P = 4.80 × 10-6; odds ratio [OR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.028-1.88; Japanese cohort). Although the transethnic meta-analysis evidenced only a suggestive signal (rs2239452, mapping within the PIM2 gene; OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.26; P = 9.93 × 10-8), the population-specific meta-analysis showed a genome-wide significant locus in East Asian individuals pointing to the same region (rs7059064, mapping within the GRIPAP1 gene; P = 6.2 × 10-9; OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.21-1.46). Indeed, rs7059064 tags a unique linkage disequilibrium block including 7 genes: TIMM17B, PQBP1, PIM2, SLC35A2, OTUD5, KCND1, and GRIPAP1, as well as a superenhancer (GH0XJ048933 within OTUD5) targeting all these genes. GH0XJ048933 is also predicted to target FOXP3, the main T-regulatory cell lineage specification factor. Consistently, OTUD5 and FOXP3 RNA levels were up-regulated in PBC case patients (1.75- and 1.64-fold, respectively). Conclusions: This work represents the first comprehensive study, to our knowledge, of the chrX contribution to the genetics of an autoimmune liver disease and shows a novel PBC-related genome-wide significant locus.

ObjectivesTo estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer.MethodsWe employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England.ResultsDeclines in urgent referrals (median=−70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=−41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=−44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=−31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity.ConclusionsDramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks.

This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

Introduction We have previously shown, by both genetic and functional analyses that a substitution in HCV G3 NS5b at amino acid 150 (alanine [A] to valine [V]), V at position 150 resulted in a reduced response to sofosbuvir, (Wing et al Gastroenterology 2019). Since response to sofosbuvir containing regimens in patients with G3 HCV is reduced in those previously treated unsuccessfully with interferon we hypothesize that this substitution might affect the response to interferon. Results Using sub-genomic replicons we find that the presence of the A150V substitution reduces the response to IFN alpha (figure 1. IC50 of S52_WT=1.162IU/ml and IC50 of S52_A150V=14.45IU/ml, 12.4-fold difference). Induction of interferon-stimulated genes in A150V replicon cells was unaffected in cells expressing A150V replicons but activation of PKR was reduced. Blockade of PKR activity reduced the effect of IFN on wildtype replicon, whereas augmented PKR activation promoted IFN antiviral effects in A150V replicons. Hence the A150V substitution inhibits IFN antiviral effects by inhibiting PKR. Since interferon and PKR play important roles in apoptosis we examined the effect of A150V replicons on apoptosis – these replicons reduced apoptosis (% increase of cell death by IFN cf. untreated in WT were 11% in wild-type and 3% in A150V). Conclusion Polymorphisms reducing response rates to DAAs may alter both antiviral and cellular responses that may have implications on malignant transformation.

Introduction The COVID 19 pandemic presented a challenge to UK hepatology services to devise new strategies to provide safe and effective outpatient care.1 Most patients could be managed remotely via virtual clinics but a cohort of patients with advanced liver disease need more direct monitoring and assessment.1 We describe a new hepatology ambulatory care unit set up during Covid-19 in a tertiary liver unit and demonstrate its outcomes. Method The Hepatology Ambulatory Unit (HAU) was managed by two clinical registrars assessing patients face to face (F2F) with daily consultant supervision, supported by a registered nurse and two medical student volunteers acting as health care assistants. F2F and virtual clinic reviews were offered. Patients were referred into the HAU from local GPs, consultant referrals, following ward discharge and via a direct patient hot line triaged by two clinical nurse specialists. Results Data were collected from 23rd March to 23rd June 2020, comprising 136 patient encounters. 86 patient encounters were completed in the F2F, the remainder in the virtual clinic. 67% of patients were females and 56% had decompensated cirrhosis in the F2F clinic, with alcohol the most common aetiology (41%).The rest of the patients has a mixture of non- cirrhotic aetiology. 14 patients needed paracentesis and 4 patients had infusions (blood or iron). Of the patients with cirrhosis, 83% had Child – Pugh Score B (7–9) and 14% had Child Pugh C (10–15), 56% had a UKELD between 49–60. Majority of the patients were followed up in the consultant led virtual clinic (65%) and HAU virtual clinic (25%). One patient underwent a liver transplant and 2 patients were referred to other specialist clinics. 3 patients were discharged to the GP. There were 2 patients admitted directly to the hospital with variceal bleed and sepsis. None of the patients within the HAU clinic were infected with Covid-19, and there were no deaths. Conclusion Our study shows that patients with advanced liver disease can be safely managed as outpatients in a well-supported closely-monitored unit. Given reports of significantly increased Covid-19 related morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis,1 we have demonstrated an alternative and effective ambulatory model of care, which can be retained to deliver safe care to this vulnerable patient group in the future. Conflicts of Interest The authors have no conflicts of interest or competing interests to disclose. Reference https://www.journal-of-hepatology.eu/article/S0168-8278(20)30305-6/fulltext

Background: Cancer and multiple non-cancer conditions are considered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as high risk conditions in the COVID-19 emergency. Professional societies have recommended changes in cancer service provision to minimize COVID-19 risks to cancer patients and health care workers. However, we do not know the extent to which cancer patients, in whom multi-morbidity is common, may be at higher overall risk of mortality as a net result of multiple factors including COVID-19 infection, changes in health services, and socioeconomic factors. Methods: We report multi-center, weekly cancer diagnostic referrals and chemotherapy treatments until April 2020 in England and Northern Ireland. We analyzed population-based health records from 3,862,012 adults in England to estimate 1-year mortality in 24 cancer sites and 15 non-cancer comorbidity clusters (40 conditions) recognized by CDC as high-risk. We estimated overall (direct and indirect) effects of COVID-19 emergency on mortality under different Relative Impact of the Emergency (RIE) and different Proportions of the population Affected by the Emergency (PAE). We applied the same model to the US, using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data. Results: Weekly data until April 2020 demonstrate significant falls in admissions for chemotherapy (45-66% reduction) and urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis (70-89% reduction), compared to pre-emergency levels. Under conservative assumptions of the emergency affecting only people with newly diagnosed cancer (incident cases) at COVID-19 PAE of 40%, and an RIE of 1.5, the model estimated 6,270 excess deaths at 1 year in England and 33,890 excess deaths in the US. In England, the proportion of patients with incident cancer with ≥1 comorbidity was 65.2%. The number of comorbidities was strongly associated with cancer mortality risk. Across a range of model assumptions, and across incident and prevalent cancer cases, 78% of excess deaths occur in cancer patients with ≥1 comorbidity. Conclusion: We provide the first estimates of potential excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity due to the COVID-19 emergency and demonstrate dramatic changes in cancer services. To better inform prioritization of cancer care and guide policy change, there is an urgent need for weekly data on cause-specific excess mortality, cancer diagnosis and treatment provision and better intelligence on the use of effective treatments for comorbidities.

This final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK stresses the continuing increase in burden of liver disease from excess alcohol consumption and obesity, with high levels of hospital admissions which are worsening in deprived areas. Only with comprehensive food and alcohol strategies based on fiscal and regulatory measures (including a minimum unit price for alcohol, the alcohol duty escalator, and an extension of the sugar levy on food content) can the disease burden be curtailed. Following introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, alcohol sales fell by 3%, with the greatest effect on heavy drinkers of low-cost alcohol products. We also discuss the major contribution of obesity and alcohol to the ten most common cancers as well as measures outlined by the departing Chief Medical Officer to combat rising levels of obesity—the highest of any country in the west. Mortality of severely ill patients with liver disease in district general hospitals is unacceptably high, indicating the need to develop a masterplan for improving hospital care. We propose a plan based around specialist hospital centres that are linked to district general hospitals by operational delivery networks. This plan has received strong backing from the British Association for Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology, but is held up at NHS England. The value of so-called day-case care bundles to reduce high hospital readmission rates with greater care in the community is described, along with examples of locally derived schemes for the early detection of disease and, in particular, schemes to allow general practitioners to refer patients directly for elastography assessment. New funding arrangements for general practitioners will be required if these proposals are to be taken up more widely around the country. Understanding of the harm to health from lifestyle causes among the general population is low, with a poor knowledge of alcohol consumption and dietary guidelines. The Lancet Commission has serious doubts about whether the initiatives described in the Prevention Green Paper, with the onus placed on the individual based on the use of information technology and the latest in behavioural science, will be effective. We call for greater coordination between official and non-official bodies that have highlighted the unacceptable disease burden from liver disease in England in order to present a single, strong voice to the higher echelons of government.

Cirrhosis is the dominant cause of portal hypertension globally but may be overshadowed by hepatosplenic schistosomiasis (HSS) in the tropics. In Zambia, schistosomiasis seroprevalence can reach 88% in endemic areas. Bacterial translocation (BT) drives portal hypertension in cirrhosis contributing to mortality but remains unexplored in HSS. Rifaximin, a non-absorbable antibiotic may reduce BT. We aimed to explore the influence of rifaximin on BT, inflammation, and fibrosis in HSS. In this phase II open-label trial (ISRCTN67590499), 186 patients with HSS in Zambia were evaluated and 85 were randomized to standard care with or without rifaximin for 42 days. Changes in markers of inflammation, BT, and fibrosis were the primary outcomes. BT was measured using plasma 16S rRNA, lipopolysaccharide-binding protein, and lipopolysaccharide, whereas hyaluronan was used to measure fibrosis. Tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1) and soluble cluster of differentiation 14 (sCD14) assessed inflammation. 16S rRNA reduced from baseline (median 146 copies/µL, interquartile range [IQR] 9, 537) to day 42 in the rifaximin group (median 63 copies/µL, IQR 12, 196), P < 0.01. The rise in sCD14 was lower (P < 0.01) in the rifaximin group (median rise 122 ng/mL, IQR-184, 783) than in the non-rifaximin group (median rise 832 ng/mL, IQR 530, 967). TNFR1 decreased (P < 0.01) in the rifaximin group (median -39 ng/mL IQR-306, 563) but increased in the non-rifaximin group (median 166 ng/mL, IQR 3, 337). Other markers remained unaffected. Rifaximin led to a reduction of inflammatory markers and bacterial 16S rRNA which may implicate BT in the inflammation in HSS.

Background The clinical management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients is based exclusively on virological parameters that cannot independently determine in which patients nucleos(t)ide-analogue (NUC) therapy can be safely discontinued. NUCs efficiently suppress viral replication, but do not eliminate HBV. Thus, therapy discontinuation can be associated with virological and biochemical relapse and, consequently, therapy in the majority is life-long. Methods Since antiviral immunity is pivotal for HBV control, we investigated potential biomarkers for the safe discontinuation of NUCs within immune profiles of chronic HBV patients by utilizing traditional immunological assays (ELISPOT, flow cytometry) in conjunction with analyses of global non-antigen-specific immune populations (NanoString and CyTOF). Two distinct cohorts of 19 and 27 chronic HBV patients, respectively, were analyzed longitudinally prior to and after discontinuation of 2 different NUC therapy strategies. Results Absence of hepatic flares following discontinuation of NUC treatment correlated with the presence, during NUC viral suppression, of HBV core and polymerase-specific T cells that were contained within the ex vivo PD-1+ population. Conclusions This study identifies the presence of functional HBV-specific T cells as a candidate immunological biomarker for safe therapy discontinuation in chronic HBV patients. Furthermore, the persistent and functional antiviral activity of PD-1+ HBV-specific T cells highlights the potential beneficial role of the expression of T cell exhaustion markers during human chronic viral infection. Funding This work was funded by a Singapore Translational Research Investigator Award (NMRC/STaR/013/2012), the Eradication of HBV TCR Program (NMRC/TCR/014-NUHS/2015), the Singapore Immunology Network, the Wellcome Trust (107389/Z/15/Z), and a Barts and The London Charity (723/1795) grant.

Background Hepatocellular malignancy in young adults is a prominent feature of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in southern Africa. Here we report a cross-sectional study of liver pathology correlated with biomarkers in adults with HBV infection in Zambia. Methods We analysed liver biopsies from Zambian patients with persistent HBV infection. Results We analysed 104 patients with HBV infection and evidence of liver disease. We obtained liver biopsies from 53 adults; of these, 12 (23%) were hepatitis B e antigen seropositive. The genotype was evenly distributed between A and E. One biopsy showed malignancy. Stage was 3 or more in 11 of 52 (21%) biopsies free of malignancy and lobular inflammation was found in 50 (94%). Neither alanine aminotransferase (ALT) nor the γ-glutamyl transferase:platelet ratio (GPR) were correlated with the stage of disease but were correlated with total Ishak score (ρ=0.47, p=0.0004 and ρ=0.33, p=0.02, respectively). Large cell change was observed in 10 of 11 biopsies with fibrosis stage 3 or more and 16 of 41 with early disease (p=0.005). Serum α-fetoprotein was elevated, although still within the normal range, in patients with large cell change (median 3.6 [interquartile range {IQR} 1.6–5.1]) compared with those without (1.7 [IQR 1.0–2.8]; p=0.03). Neither ALT nor GPR predicted large cell change. Conclusions Large cell change was common in young HBV-infected adults in Zambia. Only serum α-fetoprotein was identified as a biomarker of this phenotype.

The efficacy and safety of an investigational combination of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir (OBV/PTV/r) plus sofosbuvir (SOF) ± ribavirin (RBV) in patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 infection with or without cirrhosis was evaluated. Patients with HCV genotype 3 infection without cirrhosis were randomized to receive OBV/PTV/r + SOF ± RBV for 12 weeks; OBV/PTV/r + SOF + RBV was administered to genotype 3-infected patients with cirrhosis for 12 weeks and to genotype 2-infected patients without cirrhosis for either 6 or 8 weeks. Efficacy was assessed by sustained virologic response [HCV RNA

Background There are few data on treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people with ongoing injecting drug use. This study evaluated the efficacy of response-guided therapy for chronic HCV genotypes 2/3 infection among people with ongoing injecting drug use or receiving opioid substitution therapy (OST). A secondary aim was to identify predictors of HCV treatment response. Methods ACTIVATE was a multicentre clinical trial recruited between 2012 and 2014. Participants with genotypes 2/3 were treated with directly observed peg-interferon alfa-2b and self-administered ribavirin for 12 (undetectable HCV RNA at week 4) or 24 weeks (detectable HCV RNA at week 4). Participants were recruited from drug treatment clinics, private practices, hospital clinics and community clinics in Australia, Canada, and five countries in Europe. The primary study outcome was sustained virological response (SVR, undetectable HCV RNA >12 weeks post-treatment). Results Among 93 people with ongoing injecting drug use or receiving OST treated for HCV genotype 2/3, 59% had recently (past month) injected drugs, 77% were receiving OST and 56% injected drugs during therapy. Overall SVR was 66% (61/93). SVR was 84% in those with undetectable HCV RNA at week 4 (12 weeks) compared to 38% in those without (24 weeks). In adjusted analysis, cirrhosis vs. no/mild fibrosis [adjusted OR (aOR) 0.33, 95% CI 0.13, 0.86] predicted reduced SVR, while response at week 4 was associated with increased SVR [aOR 8.11, 95% CI 2.73, 24.10]. Recent injecting drug use at baseline or during therapy was not associated with SVR. Conclusion This study demonstrates that people with recent injecting drug use or OST with chronic HCV can achieve responses to interferon-based therapy similar to other populations, despite injecting drugs prior to or during therapy. Cirrhosis was predictive of reduced response to HCV therapy, while response at week 4 (despite shortened therapy) was predictive of improved response.

The risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) reinfection due to continued injecting risk behaviours might remain a barrier to HCV treatment among people who inject drugs. We aimed to evaluate changes in risk behaviours during and following HCV treatment among people with ongoing injecting drug use or receiving opioid substitution treatment (OST).ACTIVATE was an international multicentre clinical trial conducted between 2012 and 2014. Participants with HCV genotypes 2/3 infection were treated with peg-interferon/ribavirin for 12 or 24 weeks and completed a self-administered behavioural questionnaire at each study visit. The impact of time in treatment and follow-up on longitudinally measured recent (past month) behavioural outcomes was evaluated using generalized estimating equations.Among 93 enrolled participants (83% male, median age 41 years), 55 (59%) had injected in the past month. Any injecting drug use decreased during HCV treatment and follow-up (OR 0.89 per incremental study visit; 95% CI 0.83-0.95). No significant changes were found in ≥daily injecting (OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.89-1.07), use of non-sterile needles (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.79-1.12), sharing of injecting paraphernalia (OR 0.87; 95% CI 0.70-1.07) or non-injecting drug use (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.92-1.10). Hazardous alcohol use decreased throughout (OR 0.56; 95% CI 0.40-0.77) and OST increased between enrolment and end of treatment (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.07-2.04).Recent injecting drug use and hazardous alcohol use decreased, while OST increased during and following HCV treatment among participants with ongoing injecting drug use. These findings support further expansion of HCV care among PWID.

Introduction People who inject drugs represent an under-treated chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patient population. Methods INTEGRATE was a prospective, observational study investigating the effectiveness, safety, and adherence in routine clinical practice to telaprevir in combination with peg-interferon and ribavirin (Peg-IFN/RBV) in patients with history of injecting drug use chronically infected with genotype 1 HCV. Results A total of 46 patients were enrolled and included in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Among heroin and/or cocaine users (n = 37; 80%), 22% reported use in the past month; 74% (34/46) of patients were on opioid substitution therapy in the pre-treatment phase, and 43% (20/46) discontinued HCV treatment prematurely. Sustained virologic response rate was 54% (25/46) in the ITT population and 74% (25/34) in the per protocol (evaluable-for-effectiveness) population. The main reason for failure in the ITT analysis was loss to follow-up (n = 8; 17%). Adverse events occurred in 91% (42/46) of patients. Mean patient-reported adherence to study drugs was >89% at Week 4, Week 12 and end of treatment. Conclusion Despite a high rate of treatment discontinuation (including loss to follow-up), self-reported adherence to treatment was good and virologic cure rates were similar to those reported in large real-world cohorts. Our findings suggest that people with a history of injecting drug use should be considered for treatment of chronic HCV infection, and highlight the need for improvements in patient support to boost retention in care and, in turn, help to prevent reinfection and transmission. Clinical trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT01980290. Funding Janssen Pharmaceuticals.

No abstract available.

Severity of sterile inflammation, as seen in acute pancreatitis, is determined by damage-sensing receptors, signalling cascades and cytokine production. Stat2 is a type I interferon signalling mediator that also has interferon-independent roles in murine lipopolysaccharide-induced NF-κB-mediated sepsis. However its role in sterile inflammation is unknown. We hypothesised that Stat2 determines severity of non-infective inflammation in the pancreas.Wild type (WT) and Stat2−/− mice were injected intraperitoneally with cerulein or L-arginine. Specific cytokine-blocking antibodies were used in some experiments. Pancreata and blood were harvested 1h and 24h after the final dose of cerulein and up to 96h post L-arginine. Whole-tissue phosphoproteomic changes were assessed using label-free mass spectrometry. Tissue-specific Stat2 effects were studied in WT/Stat2−/− bone-marrow chimera and using Cre-lox recombination to delete Stat2 in pancreatic and duodenal homeobox 1(Pdx1)-expressing cells.Stat2−/− mice were protected from cerulein- and L-arginine-induced pancreatitis. Protection was independent of type I interferon signalling. Stat2−/− mice had lower cytokine levels including TNFα and IL-10 and reduced NF-kB nuclear localisation in pancreatic tissue compared to WT. Inhibition of TNFα improved (inhibition of IL-10 worsened) cerulein-induced pancreatitis in WT but not Stat2−/− mice. Phosphoproteomics showed down-regulation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) mediators but accumulation of Ser412-phosphorylated Tak1. Stat2 deletion in Pdx1-expressing acinar cells (Stat2flox/Pdx1-cre) reduced pancreatic TNFα expression, but not histological injury or serum amylase. WT/Stat2−/− bone-marrow chimera were protected from pancreatitis irrespective of host or recipient genotype.Stat2 loss results in disrupted signalling in pancreatitis, upstream of NF-κB in non-acinar and/or bone marrow derived cells.

IntroductionHepatitis C virus (HCV) is the second largest contributor to liver disease in the UK, with injecting drug use as the main risk factor among the estimated 200 000 people currently infected. Despite effective prevention interventions, chronic HCV prevalence remains around 40% among people who inject drugs (PWID). New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapies combine high cure rates (>90%) and short treatment duration (8 to 12 weeks). Theoretical mathematical modelling evidence suggests HCV treatment scale-up can prevent transmission and substantially reduce HCV prevalence/incidence among PWID. Our primary aim is to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of HCV ‘Treatment as Prevention’ (TasP) in PWID.Methods and analysisWe plan to establish a natural experiment with Tayside, Scotland, as a single intervention site where HCV care pathways are being expanded (including specialist drug treatment clinics, needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), pharmacies and prison) and HCV treatment for PWID is being rapidly scaled-up. Other sites in Scotland and England will act as potential controls. Over 2 years from 2017/2018, at least 500 PWID will be treated in Tayside, which simulation studies project will reduce chronic HCV prevalence among PWID by 62% (from 26% to 10%) and HCV incidence will fall by approximately 2/3 (from 4.2 per 100 person-years (p100py) to 1.4 p100py). Treatment response and re-infection rates will be monitored. We will conduct focus groups and interviews with service providers and patients that accept and decline treatment to identify barriers and facilitators in implementing TasP. We will conduct longitudinal interviews with up to 40 PWID to assess whether successful HCV treatment alters their perspectives on and engagement with drug treatment and recovery. Trained peer researchers will be involved in data collection and dissemination. The primary outcome – chronic HCV prevalence in PWID – is measured using information from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative survey in Scotland and the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Programme in England, conducted at least four times before and three times during and after the intervention. We will adapt Bayesian synthetic control methods (specifically the Causal Impact Method) to generate the cumulative impact of the intervention on chronic HCV prevalence and incidence. We will use a dynamic HCV transmission and economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HCV TasP intervention, and to estimate the contribution of the scale-up in HCV treatment to observe changes in HCV prevalence. Through the qualitative data we will systematically explore key mechanisms of TasP real world implementation from provider and patient perspectives to develop a manual for scaling up HCV treatment in other settings. We will compare qualitative accounts of drug treatment and recovery with a ‘virtual cohort’ of PWID linking information on HCV treatment with Scottish Drug treatment databases to test whether DAA treatment improves drug treatment outcomes.Ethics and disseminationExtending HCV community care pathways is covered by ethics (ERADICATE C,ISRCTN27564683, Super DOT C Trial clinicaltrials.gov:NCT02706223). Ethical approval for extra data collection from patients including health utilities and qualitative interviews has been granted (REC ref: 18/ES/0128) and ISCRCTN registration has been completed (ISRCTN72038467). Our findings will have direct National Health Service and patient relevance; informing prioritisation given to early HCV treatment for PWID. We will present findings to practitioners and policymakers, and support design of an evaluation of HCV TasP in England.