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Abstract Background When performed in an observational setting, treatment effect modification analyses should account for all confounding, where possible. Often, such studies only consider confounding between the exposure and outcome. However, there is scope for misspecification of the confounding adjustment when estimating moderation as the effects of the confounders may themselves be influenced by the moderator. The aim of this study was to investigate bias in estimates of treatment effect modification resulting from failure to account for an interaction between a binary moderator and a confounder on either treatment receipt or the outcome, and to assess the performance of different approaches to account for such interactions. Methods The theory behind the reason for bias and factors that impact the magnitude of bias is explained. Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess the performance of different propensity scores adjustment methods and regression adjustment where the adjustment 1) did not account for any moderator-confounder interactions, 2) included moderator-confounder interactions, and 3) was estimated separately in each moderator subgroup. A real-world observational dataset was used to demonstrate this issue. Results Regression adjustment and propensity score covariate adjustment were sensitive to the presence of moderator-confounder interactions on outcome, whilst propensity score weighting and matching were more sensitive to the presence of moderator-confounder interactions on treatment receipt. Including the relevant moderator-confounder interactions in the propensity score (for methods using this) or the outcome model (for regression adjustment) rectified this for all methods except propensity score covariate adjustment. For the latter, subgroup-specific propensity scores were required. Analysis of the real-world dataset showed that accounting for a moderator-confounder interaction can change the estimate of effect modification. Conclusions When estimating treatment effect modification whilst adjusting for confounders, moderator-confounder interactions on outcome or treatment receipt should be accounted for.

Abstract Background The SlowMo study demonstrated the effects of SlowMo, an eight‐session digitally supported reasoning intervention, on paranoia in a large‐scale randomized‐controlled trial with 362 participants with schizophrenia‐spectrum psychosis. Aim The current evaluation aimed to investigate the impact of Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) in the SlowMo study. Method PPI members were six women and three men from Sussex, Oxford and London with experience of using mental health services for psychosis. They received training and met at least 3‐monthly throughout the project. The impact of PPI was captured quantitatively and qualitatively through (i) a PPI log of recommendations and implementation; (ii) written subjective experiences of PPI members; (iii) meeting minutes; and (iv) outputs produced. Results The PPI log revealed 107 recommendations arising from PPI meetings, of which 87 (81%) were implemented. Implementation was greater for recruitment‐, data collection‐ and organization‐related actions than for dissemination and emergent innovations. Qualitative feedback revealed impacts on study recruitment, data collection, PPI participants' confidence, knowledge, career aspirations and society more widely. Outputs produced included a film about psychosis that aired on BBC primetime television, novel webpages and journal articles. Barriers to PPI impact included geography, travel, funding, co‐ordination and well‐being. Discussion A future challenge for PPI impact will be the extent to which peer innovation (innovative PPI‐led ideas) can be supported within research study delivery. Patient and Public Contribution Planned Patient and Public Contribution in SlowMo comprised consultation and collaboration in (i) design, (ii) recruitment, (iii) qualitative interviews and analysis of service users' experiences of SlowMo therapy and (iv) dissemination.

Background: Reasoning may play a causal role in paranoid delusions in psychosis. SlowMo, a new digitally supported cognitive–behavioural therapy, targets reasoning to reduce paranoia. Objectives: To examine the effectiveness of SlowMo therapy in reducing paranoia and in improving reasoning, quality of life and well-being, and to examine its mechanisms of action, moderators of effects and acceptability. Design: A parallel-arm, assessor-blind, randomised controlled trial comparing SlowMo plus treatment as usual with treatment as usual alone. An online independent system randomised eligible participants (1 : 1) using randomly varying permuted blocks, stratified by site and paranoia severity. Setting: Community mental health services in three NHS mental health trusts in England, plus patient identification centres. Participants: A total of 362 participants with schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis. Eligibility criteria comprised distressing and persistent (≥ 3 months) paranoia. Interventions: Eight face-to-face SlowMo sessions over 12 weeks plus treatment as usual, or treatment as usual alone (control group). Main outcome measures: The primary outcome measure was paranoia measured by the Green Paranoid Thoughts Scale and its revised version, together with observer-rated measures of persecutory delusions (The Psychotic Symptom Rating Scales delusion scale and delusion items from the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms). The secondary outcome measures were reasoning (measures of belief flexibility, jumping to conclusions, and fast and slow thinking), well-being, quality of life, schemas, service use and worry. Results: A total of 362 participants were recruited between 1 May 2017 and 14 May 2019: 181 in the SlowMo intervention group and 181 in the treatment-as-usual (control) group. One control participant subsequently withdrew. In total, 325 (90%) participants provided primary Green Paranoid Thoughts Scale outcome data at 12 weeks (SlowMo, n = 162; treatment as usual, n = 163). A total of 145 (80%) participants in the SlowMo group completed all eight therapy sessions. SlowMo was superior to treatment as usual in reducing paranoia on all three measures used: Green Paranoid Thoughts Scale total at 12 weeks (Cohen’s d = 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.51; p = 0.005) and 24 weeks (Cohen’s d = 0.20, 95% confidence interval –0.02 to 0.40; p = 0.063); Psychotic Symptom Rating Scales delusions at 12 weeks (Cohen’s d = 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.17 to 0.78; p = 0.002) and 24 weeks (Cohen’s d = 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.80; p = 0.001); and Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms persecutory delusions at 12 weeks (Cohen’s d = 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.84; p = 0.035) and 24 weeks (Cohen’s d = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.14 to 0.94; p = 0.009). Reasoning (belief flexibility, possibility of being mistaken and Fast and Slow Thinking Questionnaire measure) improved, but jumping to conclusions did not improve. Worry, quality of life, well-being and self-concept also improved, improving most strongly at 24 weeks. Baseline characteristics did not moderate treatment effects. Changes in belief flexibility and worry mediated changes in paranoia. Peer researcher-led qualitative interviews confirmed positive experiences of the therapy and technology. Nineteen participants in the SlowMo group and 21 participants in the treatment-as-usual group reported 54 adverse events (51 serious events, no deaths). Limitations: The trial included treatment as usual as the comparator and, thus, the trial design did not control for the effects of time with a therapist. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest trial of a psychological therapy for paranoia in people with psychosis and the first trial using a brief targeted digitally supported therapy. High rates of therapy uptake demonstrated acceptability. It was effective for paranoia, comparable to longer therapy, and equally effective for people with different levels of negative symptoms and working memory. Mediators were improvements in belief flexibility and worry. Our results suggest that targeting reasoning helps paranoia. Future work: Further examination of SlowMo mechanisms of action and implementation. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN32448671. Funding: This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) programme, a MRC and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) partnership. This will be published in full in Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; Vol. 8, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Introduction Aggregate data meta-analyses have shown heterogeneous treatment effects for cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for patients with schizophrenia spectrum diagnoses. This heterogeneity could stem from specific intervention or patient characteristics that could influence the clinical effectiveness of CBT, termed treatment effect modifiers. This individual participant data meta-analysis will investigate a range of potential treatment effect modifiers of the efficacy of CBT.Methods and analysis We will perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies investigating CBT versus treatment as usual, or CBT versus other psychosocial interventions, for patients with schizophrenia spectrum diagnoses. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PubMed, EMBASE and the online clinical trials registers of the US government, European Union, WHO and Current Controlled Trials will be searched. Two researchers will screen titles and abstracts identified by the search. Individual participant data will be requested for any eligible study, for the primary outcome (overall psychotic symptoms), secondary outcomes and treatment effect modifiers. Data will be checked and recoded according to an established statistical analysis plan. One-stage and two-stage random effects meta-analyses investigating potential treatment effect modifiers will be conducted. A list of potential treatment effect modifiers for CBT will be produced, motivating future research into particular modifiers.Ethics and dissemination This study does not require ethical approval as it is based on data from existing studies, although best ethical practice for secondary analysis of clinical data will be followed. The findings will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals, and promoted to relevant stakeholders.PROSPERO registration number CRD42017060068.

Abstract Background Persecutory delusions are a major psychiatric problem and are associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes. Our theoretical model views these delusions as unfounded threat beliefs which persist due to defence behaviours (e.g. avoidance) that prevent disconfirmatory evidence being processed. The treatment implications are that patients need to (1) go into feared situations and (2) not use defence behaviours. This enables relearning of safety and hence paranoia diminution. However, this is very difficult for patients due to their severe anxiety. A solution is to use virtual reality (VR) social situations, which are graded in difficulty and which patients find much easier to enter. We have now automated the provision of cognitive therapy within VR using an avatar coach, so that a therapist is not required and the treatment is scalable. In the THRIVE trial, the automated VR cognitive treatment will be tested against a VR control condition. It will contribute to our wider programme of work developing VR for patients with psychosis. Methods Patients with persistent persecutory delusions in the context of non-affective psychosis will be randomised (1:1) to the automated VR cognitive treatment or VR mental relaxation (control condition). Each VR treatment will comprise approximately four sessions of 30 min. Standard care will remain as usual in both groups. Assessments will be carried out at 0, 2, 4 (post treatment), 8, 16, and 24 weeks by a researcher blind to treatment allocation. The primary outcome is degree of conviction in the persecutory delusion (primary endpoint 4 weeks). Effect sizes will be re-established by an interim analysis of 30 patients. If the interim effect size suggests that the treatment is worth pursuing (d > 0.1), then the trial will go on to test 90 patients in total. Secondary outcomes include real world distress, activity levels, suicidal ideation, and quality of life. Mediation will also be tested. All main analyses will follow the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is funded by the Medical Research Council Developmental Pathway Funding Scheme. Discussion The trial will provide the first test of automated cognitive therapy within VR for patients with psychosis. The treatment is potentially highly scalable for treatment services. Trial registration ISRCTN, ISRCTN12497310. Registered on 14 August 2018.

Abstract Background Paranoia is one of the most common symptoms of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, and is associated with significant distress and disruption to the person’s life. Developing more effective and accessible psychological interventions for paranoia is a clinical priority. Our research team has approached this challenge in two main ways: firstly, by adopting an interventionist causal approach to increase effectiveness and secondly, by incorporating user-centred inclusive design methods to enhance accessibility and usability. Our resultant new digital intervention, SlowMo, intensively targets a reasoning style associated with paranoia, fast thinking, characterised by jumping to conclusions and belief inflexibility. It consists of an easy-to-use, enjoyable and memorable digital interface. An interactive web-based app facilitates delivery of face-to-face meetings which is then synchronised with an innovative mobile app for use in daily life. Methods/Design We aim to test the clinical efficacy of SlowMo over 24 weeks to determine the mechanisms through which it reduces paranoia, and to identify participant characteristics that moderate its effectiveness. In a parallel-group randomised controlled trial, with 1:1 allocation, 360 participants with distressing persecutory beliefs will be independently randomised to receive either the SlowMo intervention added to treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU, using randomly varying permuted blocks, stratified by paranoia severity and site. Research workers will be blind to therapy allocation. The primary outcome is paranoia severity over 24 weeks; our hypothesised mechanism of change is reasoning; moderators include negative symptoms and working memory; and secondary outcomes include wellbeing, quality of life, and service use. The accessibility, usability and acceptability of the digital platform will be assessed. Discussion SlowMo has been developed as the first blended digital therapy to target fears of harm from others through an inclusive design approach. In addition to testing its efficacy, this trial will add to our understanding of psychological mechanisms in paranoia. The study will examine the usability and adherence of a novel digital therapy, including an app for self-management, in a large sample of people affected by severe mental health difficulties. Trial registration ISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN32448671 . Registered prospectively on 30 January 2017. Date assigned 2 February 2017.

Background: In a previous trial we reported that the neuroprotective, anti-inflammatory antibiotic minocycline lessened the negative symptoms of schizophrenia compared with placebo over 1 year. The BeneMin study aimed to replicate this benefit and to determine whether or not there was associated preservation of grey matter, reduction in circulating inflammatory cytokines and enhancement of cognition. Objectives: To determine the efficacy of minocycline on the negative symptoms of schizophrenia and the mechanistic role of neuroprotective, anti-inflammatory and cognitive enhancing actions. Methods: Two hundred and seven patients with a current research diagnosis of schizophrenia within 5 years of onset were randomised by a permuted blocks algorithm to minocycline (300 mg/day) or matching placebo as an adjunct to their continuing treatment. The primary efficacy outcome variable was the negative symptom subscale score from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scales at 2, 6, 9 and 12 months. The primary mechanistic (biomarker) variables were (1) medial prefrontal grey matter volume (GMV), (2) circulating cytokine interleukin (IL) 6 concentration and (3) dorsolateral prefrontal cortex functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activations during performance of the N-back task. Movement disorder, side effects and treatment adherence were monitored throughout the study. Results: Compared with placebo, the addition of minocycline had no effect on the severity of negative symptoms [treatment effect difference –0.186, 95% confidence interval (CI) –1.225 to 0.854] across the 2-, 6-, 9- and 12-month follow-up visits. None of the mechanistic biomarkers was influenced by minocycline: left GMV –91.2 (95% CI –303.8 to 121.4), IL-6 0.072 (95% CI –0.118 to 0.262) and N-back fMRI 0.66 (95% CI –1.53 to 0.20). There were no statistically significant treatment effects on any of the secondary outcomes and no group differences at baseline. Most measures were stable over the 12 months. Twenty-five out of the 29 serious adverse events were hospital admission for worsening psychiatric state, which affected 10 minocycline-treated participants and six placebo-treated participants. Main outcome measures: The addition of minocycline to standard treatment had no benefit on the symptoms of schizophrenia in this early phase sample. There was no evidence of a progressive neuropathic or inflammatory process affecting GMV. Limitations: Although recruitment to target was achieved on time, only 43% (n = 89) of the 207 randomised patients completed 12 months of the study. However, 83% of those who started treatment remained on it and were assessed over 6 months. By contrast, no follow-up data were available for the cognitive and imaging markers in those who dropped out before the final 12-month assessments, and this reduced the power to detect treatment effects on these mechanistic variables. Patients were not selected for the presence of negative symptoms, and their initial overall psychopathology was, at most, moderate and, therefore, less likely to show treatment effects. Conclusions: The results of the study do not support the use of adjunctive minocycline for the treatment of negative or other symptoms of schizophrenia within 2–5 years of onset. More secure evidence of central inflammation is needed before further trials are conducted at other stages of psychosis. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN49141214. Funding: This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) programme, a Medical Research Council (MRC) and National Institute for Health Research partnership. The study was sponsored by Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust and supported by the UK Clinical Research Network.

Background: Over 70% of the health-care budget in England is spent on the care of people with long-term conditions (LTCs), and a major cost component is unscheduled health care. Psychological morbidity is high in people with LTCs and is associated with a range of adverse outcomes, including increased mortality, poorer physical health outcomes, increased health costs and service utilisation. Objectives: The aim of this programme of research was to examine the relationship between psychological morbidity and use of unscheduled care in people with LTCs, and to develop a psychosocial intervention that would have the potential to reduce unscheduled care use. We focused largely on emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) and attendances at emergency departments (EDs). Design: A three-phase mixed-methods study. Research methods included systematic reviews; a longitudinal prospective cohort study in primary care to identify people with LTCs at risk of EHA or ED admission; a replication study in primary care using routinely collected data; an exploratory and feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial in primary care; and qualitative studies to identify personal reasons for the use of unscheduled care and factors in routine consultations in primary care that may influence health-care use. People with lived experience of LTCs worked closely with the research team. Setting: Primary care. Manchester and London. Participants: People aged ≥ 18 years with at least one of four common LTCs: asthma, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes. Participants also included health-care staff. Results: Evidence synthesis suggested that depression, but not anxiety, is a predictor of use of unscheduled care in patients with LTCs, and low-intensity complex interventions reduce unscheduled care use in people with asthma and COPD. The results of the prospective study were that depression, not having a partner and life stressors, in addition to prior use of unscheduled care, severity of illness and multimorbidity, were independent predictors of EHA and ED admission. Approximately half of the cost of health care for people with LTCs was accounted for by use of unscheduled care. The results of the replication study, carried out in London, broadly supported our findings for risk of ED attendances, but not EHAs. This was most likely due to low rates of detection of depression in general practitioner (GP) data sets. Qualitative work showed that patients were reluctant to use unscheduled care, deciding to do so when they perceived a serious and urgent need for care, and following previous experience that unscheduled care had successfully and unquestioningly met similar needs in the past. In general, emergency and primary care doctors did not regard unscheduled care as problematic. We found there are missed opportunities to identify and discuss psychosocial issues during routine consultations in primary care due to the ‘overmechanisation’ of routine health-care reviews. The feasibility trial examined two levels of an intervention for people with COPD: we tried to improve the way in which practices manage patients with COPD and developed a targeted psychosocial treatment for patients at risk of using unscheduled care. The former had low acceptability, whereas the latter had high acceptability. Exploratory health economic analyses suggested that the practice-level intervention would be unlikely to be cost-effective, limiting the value of detailed health economic modelling. Limitations: The findings of this programme may not apply to all people with LTCs. It was conducted in an area of high social deprivation, which may limit the generalisability to more affluent areas. The response rate to the prospective longitudinal study was low. The feasibility trial focused solely on people with COPD. Conclusions: Prior use of unscheduled care is the most powerful predictor of unscheduled care use in people with LTCs. However, psychosocial factors, particularly depression, are important additional predictors of use of unscheduled care in patients with LTCs, independent of severity and multimorbidity. Patients and health-care practitioners are unaware that psychosocial factors influence health-care use, and such factors are rarely acknowledged or addressed in consultations or discussions about use of unscheduled care. A targeted patient intervention for people with LTCs and comorbid depression has shown high levels of acceptability when delivered in a primary care context. An intervention at the level of the GP practice showed little evidence of acceptability or cost-effectiveness. Future work: The potential benefits of case-finding for depression in patients with LTCs in primary care need to be evaluated, in addition to further evaluation of the targeted patient intervention. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Background: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is the most effective acute treatment for severe depression, but there are concerns about its adverse cognitive effects. ECT may impair cognition through stimulation of glutamate receptors, and preliminary evidence has suggested that ketamine, a glutamate antagonist, may alleviate these effects. Ketamine has been shown to have a rapid, but temporary, antidepressant effect after a single infusion. Objective: To determine the efficacy and safety of adjunctive low-dose ketamine to reduce cognitive impairments caused by ECT and, secondarily, to improve symptomatic outcome. Design: Multicentre, two-arm, parallel-group, patient-randomised, placebo-controlled superiority trial. Setting: Eleven ECT suites based in seven NHS trusts in the north of England. Participants: Severely depressed hospitalised patients or outpatients who received ECT as part of their usual clinical care. Interventions: Patients were randomised to ketamine (0.5 mg/kg) or saline as an adjunct to their anaesthetic for their ECT course in a 1 : 1 ratio. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was delayed verbal recall on the Hopkins Verbal Learning Task – Revised (HVLT-R) after four ECT treatments (mid-ECT), analysed using a Gaussian repeated measures model. Secondary outcomes included autobiographical, working and visual memory and verbal fluency, symptoms and quality of life; assessments occurred at mid-ECT, end of treatment and 1 and 4 months after the last ECT. Neuropsychological function was compared with that of healthy control subjects and a functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) substudy investigated prefrontal cortex function. A patient survey of study participation was carried out. Results: Seventy-nine severely depressed patients were randomised to ketamine (0.5 mg/kg) or saline as an adjunct to their anaesthetic for their ECT course; the modified intention-to-treat sample included 70 patients. Compared with saline, adjunctive ketamine had no significant effect on HVLT-R delayed recall [treatment effect difference –0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) –1.73 to 0.87], other neuropsychological outcomes, improvement in depression [difference in Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) score of 0.44, 95% CI –1.03 to 1.91], the number of ECT treatments to remission (MADRS score of ≤ 10: 0.83, 95% CI –3.2 to 4.9), anxiety symptoms or quality of life. By the end of ECT treatment, 37% (saline 35%, ketamine 39%) of patients had remitted. Tolerability was similar in the two treatment arms; two patients had isolated transient psychological effects attributable to ketamine. Preliminary fNIRS analysis found that patients had blunted prefrontal cortical haemodynamic responses compared with control subjects during a verbal fluency task at baseline; this was further diminished at mid-ECT without modulation by ketamine. Greater haemodynamic responsivity to ECT appeared to be associated with a better clinical response. The majority of patients surveyed reported a positive experience of study participation. Conclusions: The results of the study do not support the use of adjunctive ketamine in routine ECT treatment in the NHS. Although no evidence of benefit was found for ketamine, moderate benefits or harms cannot be excluded, as recruitment was

Background: Recovery in mental health is a relatively new concept, but it is becoming more accepted that people can recover from psychosis. Recovery-orientated services are recommended for adult mental health, but with little evidence base to support this. Objectives: To facilitate understanding and promotion of recovery in psychosis and bipolar disorder (BD), in a manner that is empowering and acceptable to service users. Method: There were six linked projects using qualitative and quantitative methodologies: (1) developing and piloting a service user-defined measure of recovery; (2) a Delphi study to determine levels of consensus around the concept of recovery; (3) examination of the psychological factors associated with recovery and how these fluctuate over time; (4) development and evaluation of cognitive–behavioural approaches to guided self-help including a patient preference trial (PPT); (5) development and evaluation of cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for understanding and preventing suicide in psychosis including a randomised controlled trial (RCT); and (6) development and evaluation of a cognitive–behavioural approach to recovery in recent onset BD, including a RCT of recovery-focused cognitive–behavioural therapy (RfCBT). Service user involvement was central to the programme. Results: Measurement of service user-defined recovery from psychosis (using the Subjective Experience of Psychosis Scale) and BD (using the Bipolar Recovery Questionnaire) was shown to be feasible and valid. The consensus study revealed a high level of agreement among service users for defining recovery, factors that help or hinder recovery and items which demonstrate recovery. Negative emotions, self-esteem and hope predicted recovery judgements, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, whereas positive symptoms had an indirect effect. In the PPT, 89 participants entered the study, three were randomised, 57 were retained in the trial until 15-month follow-up (64%). At follow-up there was no overall treatment effect on the primary outcome (Questionnaire about the Process of Recovery total; p = 0.82). In the suicide prevention RCT, 49 were randomised and 35 were retained at 6-month follow-up (71%). There were significant improvements in suicidal ideation [Adult Suicidal Ideation Questionnaire; treatment effect = –12.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) –24.3 to –0.14], Suicide Probability Scale (SPS; treatment effect = –7.0, 95% CI –15.5 to 0) and hopelessness (subscale of the SPS; treatment effect = –3.8, 95% CI –7.3 to –0.5) at follow-up. In the RCT for BD, 67 participants were randomised and 45 were retained at the 12-month follow-up (67%). Recovery score significantly improved in comparison with treatment as usual (TAU) at follow-up (310.87, 95% CI 75.00 to 546.74). At 15-month follow-up, 32 participants had experienced a relapse of either depression or mania (20 TAU vs. 12 RfCBT). The difference in time to recurrence was significant (estimated hazard ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.78; p

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144623.].

Background: The development of the capability and capacity to evaluate the outcomes of trials of complex interventions is a key priority of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the Medical Research Council (MRC). The evaluation of complex treatment programmes for mental illness (e.g. cognitive–behavioural therapy for depression or psychosis) not only is a vital component of this research in its own right but also provides a well-established model for the evaluation of complex interventions in other clinical areas. In the context of efficacy and mechanism evaluation (EME) there is a particular need for robust methods for making valid causal inference in explanatory analyses of the mechanisms of treatment-induced change in clinical outcomes in randomised clinical trials. Objectives: The key objective was to produce statistical methods to enable trial investigators to make valid causal inferences about the mechanisms of treatment-induced change in these clinical outcomes. The primary objective of this report is to disseminate this methodology, aiming specifically at trial practitioners. Methods: The three components of the research were (1) the extension of instrumental variable (IV) methods to latent growth curve models and growth mixture models for repeated-measures data; (2) the development of designs and regression methods for parallel trials; and (3) the evaluation of the sensitivity/robustness of findings to the assumptions necessary for model identifiability. We illustrate our methods with applications from psychological and psychosocial intervention trials, keeping the technical details to a minimum, leaving the reporting of the more theoretical and mathematically demanding results for publication in appropriate specialist journals. Results: We show how to estimate treatment effects and introduce methods for EME. We explain the use of IV methods and principal stratification to evaluate the role of putative treatment effect mediators and therapeutic process measures. These results are extended to the analysis of longitudinal data structures. We consider the design of EME trials. We focus on designs to create convincing IVs, bearing in mind assumptions needed to attain model identifiability. A key area of application that has become apparent during this work is the potential role of treatment moderators (predictive markers) in the evaluation of treatment effect mechanisms for personalised therapies (stratified medicine). We consider the role of targeted therapies and multiarm trials and the use of parallel trials to help elucidate the evaluation of mediators working in parallel. Conclusions: In order to demonstrate both efficacy and mechanism, it is necessary to (1) demonstrate a treatment effect on the primary (clinical) outcome, (2) demonstrate a treatment effect on the putative mediator (mechanism) and (3) demonstrate a causal effect from the mediator to the outcome. Appropriate regression models should be applied for (3) or alternative IV procedures, which account for unmeasured confounding, provided that a valid instrument can be identified. Stratified medicine may provide a setting where such instruments can be designed into the trial. This work could be extended by considering improved trial designs, sample size considerations and measurement properties. Funding: The project presents independent research funded under the MRC–NIHR Methodology Research Programme (grant reference G0900678).

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error. Study registration: The systematic review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001289. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. Professor Daniel McAuley and Professor Gavin D Perkins contributed to the systematic review through their funded roles as codirectors of the Intensive Care Foundation (UK).

Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair aims to prevent premature death from AAA rupture. Elective repair is currently recommended when AAA diameter reaches 5.5 cm (men) and 5.0 cm (women). Applying population-based indications may not be appropriate for individual patient decisions, as the optimal indication is likely to differ between patients based on age and comorbidities. Objective: To develop an Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid (ARDA) to indicate when elective AAA repair optimises survival for individual patients and to assess the cost-effectiveness and associated uncertainty of elective repair at the aneurysm diameter recommended by the ARDA compared with current practice. Data sources: The UK Vascular Governance North West and National Vascular Database provided individual patient data to develop predictive models for perioperative mortality and survival. Data from published literature were used to model AAA growth and risk of rupture. The cost-effectiveness analysis used data from published literature and from local and national databases. Methods: A combination of systematic review methods and clinical registries were used to provide data to populate models and inform the structure of the ARDA. Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the patient journey from diagnosis to death and synthesised data were used to estimate patient outcomes and costs for elective repair at alternative aneurysm diameters. Eight patient clinical scenarios (vignettes) were used as exemplars. The DES structure was validated by clinical and statistical experts. The economic evaluation estimated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the NHS, social care provider and patient perspective over a lifetime horizon. Cost-effectiveness acceptability analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty in the data and the value for money of ARDA-based decisions. The ARDA outcome measures include perioperative mortality risk, annual risk of rupture, 1-, 5- and 10-year survival, postoperative long-term survival, median life expectancy and predicted time to current threshold for aneurysm repair. The primary economic measure was the ICER using the QALY as the measure of health benefit. Results: The analysis demonstrated it is feasible to build and run a complex clinical decision aid using DES. The model results support current guidelines for most vignettes but suggest that earlier repair may be effective in younger, fitter patients and ongoing surveillance may be effective in elderly patients with comorbidities. The model adds information to support decisions for patients with aneurysms outside current indications. The economic evaluation suggests that using the ARDA compared with current guidelines could be cost-effective but there is a high level of uncertainty. Limitations: Lack of high-quality long-term data to populate all sections of the model meant that there is high uncertainty about the long-term clinical and economic consequences of repair. Modelling assumptions were necessary and the developed survival models require external validation. Conclusions: The ARDA provides detailed information on the potential consequences of AAA repair or a decision not to repair that may be helpful to vascular surgeons and their patients in reaching informed decisions. Further research is required to reduce uncertainty about key data, including reintervention following AAA repair, and assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ARDA for use in routine clinical practice. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: Persecutory delusions are a key experience in psychosis, at the severe end of a paranoia continuum in the population. Treatments require significant improvement. Our approach is to translate recent advances in understanding delusions into efficacious treatment. In our research we have found worry to be an important factor in the occurrence of persecutory delusions. Worry brings implausible ideas to mind, keeps them there and makes the experience distressing. Reducing worry should lead to reductions in persecutory delusions. Objective: The objective was to test the clinical efficacy of a brief cognitive–behavioural intervention for worry for patients with persistent persecutory delusions and determine how the treatment might reduce delusions. Embedded within the trial were theoretical studies to improve the understanding of worry in psychosis. Design: Participants were randomised either to the psychological intervention added to standard care or to standard care. Assessments, carried out by an assessor blind to allocation, were carried out at 0 weeks, 8 weeks (post treatment) and 24 weeks. Setting: Patients were recruited from mental health secondary services: Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust and Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust. Participants: A total of 150 patients with persistent persecutory delusions in the context of non-affective psychosis took part. Intervention: The six-session manualised cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) intervention aimed to reduce time worrying and did not dispute the content of delusions. Main outcome measures: The main outcomes measures were of worry (Penn State Worry Questionnaire; PSWQ) and persecutory delusions (Psychotic Symptom Rating Scales; PSYRATS). Secondary outcome measures were paranoia, overall psychiatric symptoms, psychological well-being, rumination and a patient-chosen outcome. Results: In total, 95% of the patients provided primary outcome follow-up data. For the primary outcomes, in an intention-to-treat analysis, when compared with treatment as usual, the therapy led to highly significant reductions in both worry [PSWQ: 6.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30 to 9.40; p

UNLABELLED:Few studies have examined therapist effects and therapeutic alliance (TA) in treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). Therapist effects are the differences in outcomes achieved by different therapists. TA is the quality of the bond and level of agreement regarding the goals and tasks of therapy. Prior research suffers the methodological problem that the allocation of therapist was not randomized, meaning therapist effects may be confounded with selection effects. We used data from a randomized controlled treatment trial of 296 people with CFS. The trial compared pragmatic rehabilitation (PR), a nurse led, home based self-help treatment, a counselling-based treatment called supportive listening (SL), with general practitioner treatment as usual. Therapist allocation was randomized. Primary outcome measures, fatigue and physical functioning were assessed blind to treatment allocation. TA was measured in the PR and SL arms. Regression models allowing for interactions were used to examine relationships between (i) therapist and therapeutic alliance, and (ii) therapist and average treatment effect (the difference in mean outcomes between different treatment conditions). We found no therapist effects. We found no relationship between TA and the average treatment effect of a therapist. One therapist formed stronger alliances when delivering PR compared to when delivering SL (effect size 0.76, SE 0.33, 95% CI 0.11 to 1.41). In these therapies for CFS, TA does not influence symptomatic outcome. The lack of significant therapist effects on outcome may result from the trial's rigorous quality control, or random therapist allocation, eliminating selection effects. Further research is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ISRCTN74156610.

Background: The rising number of older people with mental health problems makes the effective use of mental health resources imperative. Little is known about the clinical effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of different service models. Aims: The programme aimed to (1) refine and apply an existing planning tool [‘balance of care’ (BoC)] to this client group; (2) identify whether, how and at what cost the mix of institutional and community services could be improved; (3) enable decision-makers to apply the BoC framework independently; (4) identify variation in the structure, organisation and processes of community mental health teams for older people (CMHTsOP); (5) examine whether or not different community mental health teams (CMHTs) models are associated with different costs/outcomes; (6) identify variation in mental health outreach services for older care home residents; (7) scope the evidence on the association between different outreach models and resident outcomes; and (8) disseminate the research findings to multiple stakeholder groups. Methods: The programme employed a mixed-methods approach including three systematic literature reviews; a BoC study, which used a systematic framework for choosing between alternative patterns of support by identifying people whose needs could be met in more than one setting and comparing their costs/outcomes; a national survey of CMHTs’ organisation, structure and processes; a multiple case study of CMHTs exhibiting different levels of integration encompassing staff interviews, an observational study of user outcomes and a staff survey; national surveys of CMHTs’ outreach activities and care homes. A planned randomised trial of depression management in care homes was removed at the review stage by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) prior to funding award. Results: BoC: Past studies exhibited several methodological limitations, and just two related to older people with mental health problems. The current study suggested that if enhanced community services were available, a substantial proportion of care home and inpatient admissions could be diverted, although only the latter would release significant monies. CMHTsOP: 60% of teams were considered multidisciplinary. Most were colocated, had a single point of access (SPA) and standardised assessment documentation. Evidence of the impact of particular CMHT features was limited. Although staff spoke positively about integration, no evidence was found that more integrated teams produced better user outcomes. Working in high-integration teams was associated with poor job outcomes, but other factors negated the statistical significance of this. Care home outreach: Typical services in the literature undertook some combination of screening (less common), assessment, medication review, behaviour management and training, and evidence suggested intervention can benefit depressed residents. Care home staff were perceived to lack necessary skills, but relatively few CMHTs provided formal training. Limitations: Limitations include a necessary reliance on observational rather than experimental methods, which were not feasible given the nature of the services explored. Conclusions: BoC: Shifting care towards the community would require the growth of support services; clarification of extra care housing’s (ECH) role; timely responses to people at risk of psychiatric admission; and improved hospital discharge planning. However, the promotion of care at home will not necessarily reduce public expenditure. CMHTsOP: Although practitioners favoured integration, its goals need clarification. Occupational therapists (OTs) and social workers faced difficulties identifying optimal roles, and support workers’ career structures needed delineating. Care home outreach: Further CMHT input to build care home staff skills and screen for depression may be beneficial. Priority areas for further study include the costs and benefits for older people of age inclusive mental health services and the relative cost-effectiveness of different models of mental health outreach for older care home residents. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

The Metacognitions Questionnaire 30 assesses metacognitive beliefs and processes which are central to the metacognitive model of emotional disorder. As recent studies have begun to explore the utility of this model for understanding emotional distress after cancer diagnosis, it is important also to assess the validity of the Metacognitions Questionnaire 30 for use in cancer populations.229 patients with primary breast or prostate cancer completed the Metacognitions Questionnaire 30 and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale pre-treatment and again 12 months later. The structure and validity of the Metacognitions Questionnaire 30 were assessed using factor analyses and structural equation modelling.Confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses provided evidence supporting the validity of the previously published 5-factor structure of the Metacognitions Questionnaire 30. Specifically, both pre-treatment and 12 months later, this solution provided the best fit to the data and all items loaded on their expected factors. Structural equation modelling indicated that two dimensions of metacognition (positive and negative beliefs about worry) were significantly associated with anxiety and depression as predicted, providing further evidence of validity.These findings provide initial evidence that the Metacognitions Questionnaire 30 is a valid measure for use in cancer populations.

BackgroundCompulsory admission to psychiatric hospitals may be distressing, disruptive to patients and families, and associated with considerable cost to the health service. Improved patient experience and cost reductions could be realised by providing cost-effective crisis planning services.MethodsEconomic evaluation within a multi-centre randomised controlled trial comparing Joint Crisis Plans (JCP) plus treatment as usual (TAU) to TAU alone for patients aged over 16, with at least one psychiatric hospital admission in the previous two years and on the Enhanced Care Programme Approach register. JCPs, containing the patient's treatment preferences for any future psychiatric emergency, are a form of crisis intervention that aim to mitigate the negative consequences of relapse, including hospital admission and use of coercion. Data were collected at baseline and 18-months after randomisation. The primary outcome was admission to hospital under the Mental Health Act. The economic evaluation took a service perspective (health, social care and criminal justice services) and a societal perspective (additionally including criminal activity and productivity losses).FindingsThe addition of JCPs to TAU had no significant effect on compulsory admissions or total societal cost per participant over 18-months follow-up. From the service cost perspective, however, evidence suggests a higher probability (80%) of JCPs being the more cost-effective option. Exploration by ethnic group highlights distinct patterns of costs and effects. Whilst the evidence does not support the cost-effectiveness of JCPs for White or Asian ethnic groups, there is at least a 90% probability of the JCP intervention being the more cost-effective option in the Black ethnic group.InterpretationThe results by ethnic group are sufficiently striking to warrant further investigation into the potential for patient gain from JCPs among black patient groups.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN11501328.

Background There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time PCR in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen DNA in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast is a multipathogen probe-based real-time PCR system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection and has European regulatory approval. The SeptiFast pathogen panel is suited to identifying healthcare-associated bloodstream infection acquired during complex healthcare, and the authors report here the protocol for the first detailed health-technology assessment of multiplex real-time PCR in this setting.Methods/design A Phase III multicentre double-blinded diagnostic study will determine the clinical validity of SeptiFast for the rapid detection of healthcare-associated bloodstream infection, against the current service standard of microbiological culture, in an adequately sized population of critically ill adult patients. Results from SeptiFast and standard microbiological culture procedures in each patient will be compared at study conclusion and the metrics of clinical diagnostic accuracy of SeptiFast determined in this population setting. In addition, this study aims to assess further the preliminary evidence that the detection of pathogen DNA in the bloodstream using SeptiFast may have value in identifying the presence of infection elsewhere in the body. Furthermore, differences in circulating immune-inflammatory markers in patient groups differentiated by the presence/absence of culturable pathogens and pathogen DNA will help elucidate further the patho-physiology of infection developing in the critically ill.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the North West 6 Research Ethics Committee (09/H1003/109). Based on the results of this first non-commercial study, independent recommendations will be made to The Department of Health (open-access health technology assessment report) as to whether SeptiFast has sufficient clinical diagnostic accuracy to move forward to efficacy testing during the provision of routine clinical care.