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This paper is about how East Asia should respond to the challenges of the external environment. The first challenge is the current slowdown in trade, which has been due to cyclical and structural factors such as the decline in productivity and the maturation of global value chains. The rise in protectionism as measured by rising trade restrictiveness has not impacted on trade, but political and policy uncertainty regarding the direction of trade policy seems to have begun to impact on trade growth. The policy stance of increased protectionism and a retreat from the multilateral rules‐based trading system is linked to the pockets of the population who have not seen their incomes improve and who have blamed their plight and increased inequality on globalization. In fact, the issue is more about the lack of effective responses to manage the costs of trade liberalization. East Asian economies need to respond to these challenges by upholding the multilateral rules‐based trading system, continuing the various pathways to regional economic integration, and ensuring better globalization through effective capacity building and policies to address the negative effects of trade liberalization.

We assess the economic risk of ill health for households in Indonesia and the role of informal coping strategies. Using household panel data from the Indonesian socio-economic household survey (Susenas) for 2003 and 2004, and applying fixed effects Poisson models, we find evidence of economic risk from illness through medical expenses. For the poor and the informal sector, ill health events impact negatively on income from wage labour, whereas for the non-poor and formal sector, it is income from self-employed business activities which is negatively affected. However, only for the rural population and the poor does this lead to a decrease in consumption, whereas the non-poor seem to be able to protect current household spending. Borrowing and drawing on family network and buffers, such as savings and assets, seem to be key informal coping strategies for the poor, which may have negative long-term effects. While these results suggest scope for public intervention, the economic risk from income loss for the rural poor is beyond public health care financing reforms. Rather, formal sector employment seems to be a key instrument for financial protection from illness, by also reducing income risk.

This paper assesses the relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Indonesia before and after the Asian financial crisis. The annual rate of poverty reduction slowed significantly in the post-crisis period. However, the trend in the growth elasticity of poverty indicates that the power of each percentage point of economic growth to reduce poverty did not change much between the two periods. In both, service sector growth made the largest contribution to poverty reduction in both rural and urban areas. Industrial sector growth largely became irrelevant for poverty reduction in the post-crisis period even though the sector contributed the second-largest share of GDP. Agricultural sector growth, mean-while, remained important, but in rural areas only. The findings suggest the need to formulate an effective strategy to promote sectoral growth in order to speed up the pace of poverty reduction.

We assess the financial risk of ill health for households in Indonesia, the role of informal coping strategies, and the effectiveness of these strategies in smoothing consumption. Based on household panel data, we find evidence of financial risk from illness through medical expenses, while income from informal wage labour is exposed to risk for the poor and income from self-employed business activities for the non-poor. However, this lead to imperfect consumption smoothing only for the rural population and the poorest quartile; the non-poor seem to be able to maintain current spending. Borrowing and drawing on buffers, such as savings and assets, seem to be key informal coping strategies for the poor, which infers potential negative long term effects. While these results suggest scope for public intervention, the financial risk from income loss for the rural poor is beyond public health care financing reforms. Rather, formal sector employment, which reduces income risks, seems to be a key instrument for financial protection from illness.