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Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society's mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO 2 and non-CO 2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation's climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

The aim of this study was to compare single- and twin-shaft oxy-fuel gas turbines in a semiclosed oxy-fuel combustion combined cycle (SCOC-CC). This paper discussed the turbomachinery preliminary mean-line design of oxy-fuel compressor and turbine. The conceptual turbine design was performed using the axial through-flow code luax-t, developed at Lund University. A tool for conceptual design of axial compressors developed at Chalmers University was used for the design of the compressor. The modeled SCOC-CC gave a net electrical efficiency of 46% and a net power of 106 MW. The production of 95% pure oxygen and the compression of CO 2 reduced the gross efficiency of the SCOC-CC by 10 and 2 percentage points, respectively. The designed oxy-fuel gas turbine had a power of 86 MW. The rotational speed of the single-shaft gas turbine was set to 5200 rpm. The designed turbine had four stages, while the compressor had 18 stages. The turbine exit Mach number was calculated to be 0.6 and the calculated value of AN 2 was 40 · 10 6 rpm 2 m 2 . The total calculated cooling mass flow was 25% of the compressor mass flow, or 47 kg/s. The relative tip Mach number of the compressor at the first rotor stage was 1.15. The rotational speed of the twin-shaft gas generator was set to 7200 rpm, while that of the power turbine was set to 4800 rpm. A twin-shaft turbine was designed with five turbine stages to maintain the exit Mach number around 0.5. The twin-shaft turbine required a lower exit Mach number to maintain reasonable diffuser performance. The compressor turbine was designed with two stages while the power turbine had three stages. The study showed that a four-stage twin-shaft turbine produced a high exit Mach number. The calculated value of AN 2 was 38 · 10 6 rpm 2 m 2 . The total calculated cooling mass flow was 23% of the compressor mass flow, or 44 kg/s. The compressor was designed with 14 stages. The preliminary design parameters of the turbine and compressor were within established industrial ranges. From the results of this study, it was concluded that both single- and twin-shaft oxy-fuel gas turbines have advantages. The choice of a twin-shaft gas turbine can be motivated by the smaller compressor size and the advantage of greater flexibility in operation, mainly in the off-design mode. However, the advantages of a twin-shaft design must be weighed against the inherent simplicity and low cost of the simple single-shaft design.