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Introduction: vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) has been identified as a rare but serious adverse event associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. Objectives: in this study, we explored the pre-pandemic co-occurrence of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TWT) using 17 observational health data sources across the world. We applied multiple TWT definitions, estimated the background rate of TWT, characterized TWT patients, and explored the makeup of thrombosis types among TWT patients. Methods: we conducted an international network retrospective cohort study using electronic health records and insurance claims data, estimating background rates of TWT amongst persons observed from 2017 to 2019. Following the principles of existing VITT clinical definitions, TWT was defined as patients with a diagnosis of embolic or thrombotic arterial or venous events and a diagnosis or measurement of thrombocytopenia within 7 days. Six TWT phenotypes were considered, which varied in the approach taken in defining thrombosis and thrombocytopenia in real world data. Results: overall TWT incidence rates ranged from 1.62 to 150.65 per 100,000 person-years. Substantial heterogeneity exists across data sources and by age, sex, and alternative TWT phenotypes. TWT patients were likely to be men of older age with various comorbidities. Among the thrombosis types, arterial thrombotic events were the most common. Conclusion: our findings suggest that identifying VITT in observational data presents a substantial challenge, as implementing VITT case definitions based on the co-occurrence of TWT results in large and heterogeneous incidence rate and in a cohort of patints with baseline characteristics that are inconsistent with the VITT cases reported to date. This project has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 806968. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program and EFPIA. Funders had no role in the conceptualization, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Background Antithrombotic therapies are associated with an increased bleeding risk. Abnormal uterine bleeding data have been reported in clinical trials of patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), but data are limited for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Objective Using real-world data from four US healthcare databases (October 2010 to December 2018), we compared the occurrence of severe uterine bleeding among women newly exposed to rivaroxaban, apixaban, dabigatran, and warfarin stratified by indication. Methods To reduce potential confounding, patients in comparative cohorts were matched on propensity scores. Treatment effect estimates were generated using Cox proportional hazard models for each indication, in each database, and only for pairwise comparisons that met a priori study diagnostics. If estimates were homogeneous (I2 < 40%), a meta-analysis across databases was performed and pooled hazard ratios reported. Results Data from 363,919 women newly exposed to a direct oral anticoagulant or warfarin with a prior diagnosis of AF (60.8%) or VTE (39.2%) were analyzed. Overall incidence of severe uterine bleeding was low in the populations exposed to direct oral anticoagulants, although relatively higher in the younger VTE population vs the AF population (unadjusted incidence rates: 2.8–33.7 vs 1.9–10.0 events/1000 person-years). In the propensity score-matched AF population, a suggestive, moderately increased risk of severe uterine bleeding was observed for rivaroxaban relative to warfarin [hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals from 0.83 (0.27–2.48) to 2.84 (1.32–6.23) across databases with significant heterogeneity], apixaban [pooled hazard ratio 1.45 (0.91–2.28)], and dabigatran [2.12 (1.01–4.43)], which were sensitive to the time-at-risk period. In the propensity score-matched VTE population, a consistent increased risk of severe uterine bleeding was observed for rivaroxaban relative to warfarin [2.03 (1.19–3.27)] and apixaban [2.25 (1.45–3.41)], which were insensitive to the time-at-risk period. Conclusions For women who need antithrombotic therapy, personalized management strategies with careful evaluation of benefits and risks are required. ClinicalTrials.gov Registration NCT04394234; registered in May 2020. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40264-021-01060-4.

Background incidence rates are routinely used in safety studies to evaluate the association of an exposure and an outcome. Systematic research on the sensitivity of background rates to the choice of the study parameters is lacking. We used 12 electronic health record and administrative claims data sources to calculate incidence rates of 15 adverse events. We examined the influence of age, race, sex, database, time-at-risk start (anchoring) event and duration, season and year, prior observation and clean window. For binary comparisons, we calculated incidence rate ratios and performed random-effect model meta-analysis. Background rates were highly sensitive to demographic characteristics of the population, especially age, with rates varying up to a factor of 1,000 across age groups. Rates varied by up to a factor of 100 by database. Incidence rates were highly influenced by the choice of anchoring (e.g., health visit, vaccination, or arbitrary date) for the time-at-risk start, especially at short times at risk, and less influenced by secular or seasonal trends. Therefore, comparing background to observed rates requires appropriate adjustment, and results should be interpreted in the context of design choices.Short Figure

ObjectivesConcern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA.MethodsWe performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2

Objective To quantify the background incidence rates of 15 prespecified adverse events of special interest (AESIs) associated with covid-19 vaccines. Design Multinational network cohort study. Setting Electronic health records and health claims data from eight countries: Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, mapped to a common data model. Participants 126 661 070 people observed for at least 365 days before 1 January 2017, 2018, or 2019 from 13 databases. Main outcome measures Events of interests were 15 prespecified AESIs (non-haemorrhagic and haemorrhagic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, anaphylaxis, Bell’s palsy, myocarditis or pericarditis, narcolepsy, appendicitis, immune thrombocytopenia, disseminated intravascular coagulation, encephalomyelitis (including acute disseminated encephalomyelitis), Guillain-Barré syndrome, and transverse myelitis). Incidence rates of AESIs were stratified by age, sex, and database. Rates were pooled across databases using random effects meta-analyses and classified according to the frequency categories of the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences. Results Background rates varied greatly between databases. Deep vein thrombosis ranged from 387 (95% confidence interval 370 to 404) per 100 000 person years in UK CPRD GOLD data to 1443 (1416 to 1470) per 100 000 person years in US IBM MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid data among women aged 65 to 74 years. Some AESIs increased with age. For example, myocardial infarction rates in men increased from 28 (27 to 29) per 100 000 person years among those aged 18-34 years to 1400 (1374 to 1427) per 100 000 person years in those older than 85 years in US Optum electronic health record data. Other AESIs were more common in young people. For example, rates of anaphylaxis among boys and men were 78 (75 to 80) per 100 000 person years in those aged 6-17 years and 8 (6 to 10) per 100 000 person years in those older than 85 years in Optum electronic health record data. Meta-analytic estimates of AESI rates were classified according to age and sex. Conclusion This study found large variations in the observed rates of AESIs by age group and sex, showing the need for stratification or standardisation before using background rates for safety surveillance. Considerable population level heterogeneity in AESI rates was found between databases.

SummaryBackgroundAs large-scale immunization programs against COVID-19 proceed around the world, safety signals will emerge that need rapid evaluation. We report population-based, age- and sex- specific background incidence rates of potential adverse events of special interest (AESI) in eight countries using thirteen databases.MethodsThis multi-national network cohort study included eight electronic medical record and five administrative claims databases from Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, mapped to a common data model. People observed for at least 365 days before 1 January 2017, 2018, or 2019 were included. We based study outcomes on lists published by regulators: acute myocardial infarction, anaphylaxis, appendicitis, Bell’s palsy, deep vein thrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, encephalomyelitis, Guillain-Barre syndrome, hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic stroke, immune thrombocytopenia, myocarditis/pericarditis, narcolepsy, pulmonary embolism, and transverse myelitis. We calculated incidence rates stratified by age, sex, and database. We pooled rates across databases using random effects meta-analyses. We classified meta-analytic estimates into Council of International Organizations of Medical Sciences categories: very common, common, uncommon, rare, or very rare.FindingsWe analysed 126,661,070 people. Rates varied greatly between databases and by age and sex. Some AESI (e.g., myocardial infarction, Guillain-Barre syndrome) increased with age, while others (e.g., anaphylaxis, appendicitis) were more common in young people. As a result, AESI were classified differently according to age. For example, myocardial infarction was very rare in children, rare in women aged 35-54 years, uncommon in men and women aged 55-84 years, and common in those aged ≥85 years.InterpretationWe report robust baseline rates of prioritised AESI across 13 databases. Age, sex, and variation between databases should be considered if background AESI rates are compared to event rates observed with COVID-19 vaccines.

Background SARS-CoV-2 is straining health care systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate patients who require hospitalization from those who do not. The COVID-19 vulnerability (C-19) index, a model that predicts which patients will be admitted to hospital for treatment of pneumonia or pneumonia proxies, has been developed and proposed as a valuable tool for decision-making during the pandemic. However, the model is at high risk of bias according to the “prediction model risk of bias assessment” criteria, and it has not been externally validated. Objective The aim of this study was to externally validate the C-19 index across a range of health care settings to determine how well it broadly predicts hospitalization due to pneumonia in COVID-19 cases. Methods We followed the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) framework for external validation to assess the reliability of the C-19 index. We evaluated the model on two different target populations, 41,381 patients who presented with SARS-CoV-2 at an outpatient or emergency department visit and 9,429,285 patients who presented with influenza or related symptoms during an outpatient or emergency department visit, to predict their risk of hospitalization with pneumonia during the following 0-30 days. In total, we validated the model across a network of 14 databases spanning the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Results The internal validation performance of the C-19 index had a C statistic of 0.73, and the calibration was not reported by the authors. When we externally validated it by transporting it to SARS-CoV-2 data, the model obtained C statistics of 0.36, 0.53 (0.473-0.584) and 0.56 (0.488-0.636) on Spanish, US, and South Korean data sets, respectively. The calibration was poor, with the model underestimating risk. When validated on 12 data sets containing influenza patients across the OHDSI network, the C statistics ranged between 0.40 and 0.68. Conclusions Our results show that the discriminative performance of the C-19 index model is low for influenza cohorts and even worse among patients with COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and South Korea. These results suggest that C-19 should not be used to aid decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of performing external validation across a range of settings, especially when a prediction model is being extrapolated to a different population. In the field of prediction, extensive validation is required to create appropriate trust in a model.

Author(s): Lane, Jennifer CE; Weaver, James; Kostka, Kristin; Duarte-Salles, Talita; Abrahao, Maria Tereza F; Alghoul, Heba; Alser, Osaid; Alshammari, Thamir M; Areia, Carlos; Biedermann, Patricia; Banda, Juan M; Burn, Edward; Casajust, Paula; Fister, Kristina; Hardin, Jill; Hester, Laura; Hripcsak, George; Kaas-Hansen, Benjamin Skov; Khosla, Sajan; Kolovos, Spyros; Lynch, Kristine E; Makadia, Rupa; Mehta, Paras P; Morales, Daniel R; Morgan-Stewart, Henry; Mosseveld, Mees; Newby, Danielle; Nyberg, Fredrik; Ostropolets, Anna; Woong Park, Rae; Prats-Uribe, Albert; Rao, Gowtham A; Reich, Christian; Rijnbeek, Peter; Sena, Anthony G; Shoaibi, Azza; Spotnitz, Matthew; Subbian, Vignesh; Suchard, Marc A; Vizcaya, David; Wen, Haini; Wilde, Marcel de; Xie, Junqing; You, Seng Chan; Zhang, Lin; Lovestone, Simon; Ryan, Patrick; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel; OHDSI-COVID-19 consortium | Abstract: ObjectivesConcern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA.MethodsWe performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2 l40%.ResultsA total of 918 144 and 290 383 users of HCQ and SSZ, respectively, were included. No consistent risk of psychiatric events was observed with short-term HCQ (compared with SSZ) use, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.96 (95% CI 0.79, 1.16) for depression, 0.94 (95% CI 0.49, 1.77) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 1.03 (95% CI 0.66, 1.60) for psychosis. No consistent long-term risk was seen, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.26) for depression, 0.77 (95% CI 0.56, 1.07) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 0.99 (95% CI 0.72, 1.35) for psychosis.ConclusionHCQ as used to treat RA does not appear to increase the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation or psychosis compared with SSZ. No effects were seen in the short or long term. Use at a higher dose or for different indications needs further investigation.Trial registrationRegistered with EU PAS (reference no. EUPAS34497; http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm? id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine2.

Background Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I² value was less than 0·4. Findings The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Selfcontrolled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12–2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22–3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05–1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02–1·45]). Interpretation Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit–risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment.

Background To better understand the profile of individuals with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we characterised individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 and compared them to individuals previously hospitalised with influenza. Methods We report the characteristics (demographics, prior conditions and medication use) of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 between December 2019 and April 2020 in the US (Columbia University Irving Medical Center [CUIMC], STAnford Medicine Research data Repository [STARR-OMOP], and the Department of Veterans Affairs [VA OMOP]) and Health Insurance Review & Assessment [HIRA] of South Korea. Patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were compared with patients previously hospitalised with influenza in 2014–19. Results 6,806 (US: 1,634, South Korea: 5,172) individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 were included. Patients in the US were majority male (VA OMOP: 94%, STARR-OMOP: 57%, CUIMC: 52%), but were majority female in HIRA (56%). Age profiles varied across data sources. Prevalence of asthma ranged from 7% to 14%, diabetes from 18% to 43%, and hypertensive disorder from 22% to 70% across data sources, while between 9% and 39% were taking drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system in the 30 days prior to their hospitalisation. Compared to 52,422 individuals hospitalised with influenza, patients admitted with COVID-19 were more likely male, younger, and, in the US, had fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. Conclusions Rates of comorbidities and medication use are high among individuals hospitalised with COVID-19. However, COVID-19 patients are more likely to be male and appear to be younger and, in the US, generally healthier than those typically admitted with influenza.

Purpose To assess veteran-specific prostate cancer (PrCA) mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR) in South Carolina's (SC) veteran population. Methods U.S. Veterans Health Administration electronic medical records from January 1999 to December 2015 identified 3,073 PrCA patients residing in 345 ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTA) within SC. MIRs were calculated for all SC ZCTAs and by key patient- and neighborhood-level risk factors for PrCA. Comparisons between ZCTAs identified as part of a spatial cluster were compared with non-significant ZCTAs using t tests. Results The MIR was 0.17 overall, ranging from a low of 0.15 among Black men to 0.20 among White men. Among metropolitan ZCTAs, the MIR was 0.18 compared to 0.16 in non-metropolitan ZCTAs. Two clusters of higher-than-expected MIRs were found in the Upstate region. Conclusions Identification of spatial clusters of higher- or lower-than-expected MIRs allows for further testing of possible explanatory factors, and the capacity to target resources and policies according to greatest need.

ObjectivesConcern has been raised in the rheumatological community regarding recent regulatory warnings that hydroxychloroquine used in the COVID-19 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation, or psychosis associated with hydroxychloroquine as used for rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsNew user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and US). RA patients aged 18+ and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared to those initiating sulfasalazine (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30-day) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation, and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HR), with estimates pooled where I2Results918,144 and 290,383 users of hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine, respectively, were included. No consistent risk of psychiatric events was observed with short-term hydroxychloroquine (compared to sulfasalazine) use, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.96 [0.79-1.16] for depression, 0.94 [0.49-1.77] for suicide/suicidal ideation, and 1.03 [0.66-1.60] for psychosis. No consistent long-term risk was seen, with meta-analytic HRs 0.94 [0.71-1.26] for depression, 0.77 [0.56-1.07] for suicide/suicidal ideation, and 0.99 [0.72-1.35] for psychosis.ConclusionsHydroxychloroquine as used to treat RA does not appear to increase the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation, or psychosis compared to sulfasalazine. No effects were seen in the short or long term. Use at higher dose or for different indications needs further investigation.TRIAL REGISTRATIONRegistered with EU PAS; Reference number EUPAS34497 (http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm?id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine.WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPICRecent regulatory warnings have raised concerns of potential psychiatric side effects of hydroxychloroquine at the doses used to treat COVID-19, generating concern in the rheumatological communitySerious psychiatric adverse events such as suicide, acute psychosis, and depressive episodes have been identified by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) adverse events reporting system and at case report levelWHAT THIS STUDY ADDSThis is the largest study on the neuro-psychiatric safety of hydroxychloroquine to date, including >900,000 users treated for their RA in country-level or private health care systems in Germany, the UK, and the USWe find no association between the use of hydroxychloroquine and the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation, or severe psychosis compared to sulfasalazineHOW MIGHT THIS IMPACT ON CLINICAL PRACTICEOur data shows no association between hydroxychloroquine treatment for RA and risk of depression, suicide or psychosis compared to sulfasalazine. These findings do not support stopping or switching hydroxychloroquine treatment as used for RA due to recent concerns based on COVID-19 treated patients.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 is straining healthcare systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate between patients requiring hospitalization and those who do not. The COVID-19 vulnerability (C-19) index, a model that predicts which patients will be admitted to hospital for treatment of pneumonia or pneumonia proxies, has been developed and proposed as a valuable tool for decision making during the pandemic. However, the model is at high risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool and has not been externally validated.MethodsWe followed the OHDSI framework for external validation to assess the reliability of the C-19 model. We evaluated the model on two different target populations: i) 41,381 patients that have SARS-CoV-2 at an outpatient or emergency room visit and ii) 9,429,285 patients that have influenza or related symptoms during an outpatient or emergency room visit, to predict their risk of hospitalization with pneumonia during the following 0 to 30 days. In total we validated the model across a network of 14 databases spanning the US, Europe, Australia and Asia.FindingsThe internal validation performance of the C-19 index was a c-statistic of 0.73 and calibration was not reported by the authors. When we externally validated it by transporting it to SARS-CoV-2 data the model obtained c-statistics of 0.36, 0.53 (0.473-0.584) and 0.56 (0.488-0.636) on Spanish, US and South Korean datasets respectively. The calibration was poor with the model under-estimating risk. When validated on 12 datasets containing influenza patients across the OHDSI network the c-statistics ranged between 0.40-0.68.InterpretationThe results show that the discriminative performance of the C-19 model is low for influenza cohorts, and even worse amongst COVID-19 patients in the US, Spain and South Korea. These results suggest that C-19 should not be used to aid decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of performing external validation across a range of settings, especially when a prediction model is being extrapolated to a different population. In the field of prediction, extensive validation is required to create appropriate trust in a model.

Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19., Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of COVID-19 patients helps with public health planning. Here, the authors use routinely-collected data from seven databases in three countries to describe the characteristics of >30,000 patients admitted with COVID-19 and compare them with those admitted for influenza in previous years.

Importance COVID-19 is causing high mortality worldwide. Developing models to quantify the risk of poor outcomes in infected patients could help develop strategies to shield the most vulnerable during de-confinement. Objective To develop and externally validate COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient9s risk of hospital admission (COVER-H), requiring intensive services (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis. Design Multinational, distributed network cohorts. Setting We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 13 data sources and 6 countries, mapped to a common data model. Participants Model development used a patient population consisting of >2 million patients with a general practice (GP), emergency room (ER), or outpatient (OP) visit with diagnosed influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The model was validated on patients with a GP, ER, or OP visit in 2020 with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across four databases from South Korea, Spain and the United States. Outcomes Age, sex, historical conditions, and drug use prior to index date were considered as candidate predictors. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. Results Overall, 43,061 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation, after initial model development and validation using 6,869,127 patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and kidney disease) which combined with age and sex could discriminate which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved high performance in influenza. When transported to COVID-19 cohorts, the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.73-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.82-0.90. Calibration was overall acceptable, with overestimated risk in the most elderly and highest risk strata. Conclusions and relevance A 9-predictor model performs well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services and death. The models could aid in providing reassurance for low risk patients and shield high risk patients from COVID-19 during de-confinement to reduce the virus9 impact on morbidity and mortality.

Background and purposeHemorrhagic transformation (HT) after cerebral infarction is a complex and multifactorial phenomenon in the acute stage of ischemic stroke, and often results in a poor prognosis. Thus, identifying risk factors and making an early prediction of HT in acute cerebral infarction contributes not only to the selections of therapeutic regimen but also, more importantly, to the improvement of prognosis of acute cerebral infarction. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a model to predict a patient's risk of HT within 30 days of initial ischemic stroke.MethodsWe utilized a retrospective multicenter observational cohort study design to develop a Lasso Logistic Regression prediction model with a large, US Electronic Health Record dataset which structured to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM). To examine clinical transportability, the model was externally validated across 10 additional real-world healthcare datasets include EHR records for patients from America, Europe and Asia.ResultsIn the database the model was developed, the target population cohort contained 621,178 patients with ischemic stroke, of which 5,624 patients had HT within 30 days following initial ischemic stroke. 612 risk predictors, including the distance a patient travels in an ambulance to get to care for a HT, were identified. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75 was achieved in the internal validation of the risk model. External validation was performed across 10 databases totaling 5,515,508 patients with ischemic stroke, of which 86,401 patients had HT within 30 days following initial ischemic stroke. The mean external AUC was 0.71 and ranged between 0.60-0.78.ConclusionsA HT prognostic predict model was developed with Lasso Logistic Regression based on routinely collected EMR data. This model can identify patients who have a higher risk of HT than the population average with an AUC of 0.78. It shows the OMOP CDM is an appropriate data standard for EMR secondary use in clinical multicenter research for prognostic prediction model development and validation. In the future, combining this model with clinical information systems will assist clinicians to make the right therapy decision for patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Background Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I2 value was less than 0·4. Findings The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12–2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22–3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05–1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02–1·45]). Interpretation Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit–risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment. Funding National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Senior Research Fellowship programme, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research and Development, IQVIA, Korea Health Industry Development Institute through the Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic of Korea, Versus Arthritis, UK Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership, Foundation Alfonso Martin Escudero, Innovation Fund Denmark, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council Open Fund Large Collaborative Grant, VINCI, Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations.

PURPOSE To investigate if a prostate specific antigen (PSA)-derived growth curve can predict the occurrence of high-risk prostate cancer (PrCA). METHODS Data from 38,340 men randomized to the PrCA screening arm in the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening trial (PLCO) were used to develop a PSA growth curve model to estimate PSA rate of change. The model was then used to predict high-risk PrCA in clinical data available from 680,390 veterans seeking routine care. The PSA growth curve was modeled using non-linear mixed regression and the PSA rate was estimated by taking the 1st derivative of the growth curve equation at 1 year prior to diagnosis/exit. RESULTS In the PLCO, PrCA incidence was 8.1%; ≈19% of whom had high-risk PrCA. Overall, a PSA rate threshold of 0.37 ng/ml/year had the best combination of sensitivity (97.2%) and specificity (97.3%) for detecting high-risk PrCA. In the VA data; 7,347 men were diagnosed with PrCA; of these 4,315 (58.7%) were diagnosed with high-risk PrCA. The PLCO optimal threshold of 0.37 ng/ml/year produced sensitivity = 95.5% and specificity = 85.2%. An optimal threshold of 0.99 ng/ml/year in AA produced sensitivity = 89.1% and specificity = 80.0%. PSA rate was a better predictor than the single last PSA value. CONCLUSIONS PSA growth curves predicted high-risk PrCA in the PLCO data. Fitting the same algorithm in the VA data produced lower specificity. Although encouraging, this finding underlines the need for further research to prospectively test the algorithm, especially for African-American men, the population group at highest risk of aggressive PrCA. Prostate 9999: XX–XX, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Racial and socio-economic status (SES) disparities exist in prostate cancer (PrCA) incidence and mortality. Less is known regarding how geographical factors, including neighborhood social vulnerability and distance traveled to receive care, affect PrCA risk. The purpose of this research was to use the Veterans Administration Medical System, which provides a unique means for studying PrCA epidemiology among diverse individuals with ostensibly equal access to healthcare, to determine whether area-level characteristics influence PrCA incidence while accounting for individual-level risk factors. From the US Veteran’s Health Administration (VHA) electronic medical records (EMR) database from January 1999 to December 2015, we identified 3,736 PrCA patients and 104,017 cancer-free controls from South Carolina (SC). The VHA EMRs were linked to the US census which provided area-level factors. US census data were used to construct the Social Vulnerability Index which is a continuous composite measure of area-level vulnerability and was divided into tertiles for modeling purposes. Data were analyzed using a Bayesian multivariate conditional autoregressive model (CAR) which accounted for individual-level factors, area-level factors, spatial random effects, and autocorrelation, which were used to identify areas of higher- or lower-than-expected PrCA incidence after controlling for risk factors. As expected, after accounting for age (sixfold and 13-fold increases in men 40–50 years and > 50 years, respectively), race was an important risk factor, with threefold higher odds among Blacks in the fully adjusted model [ORadj 2.98 (2.77, 3.20)]. After accounting for all other factors, residing in a ZIP code tabulated areas (ZCTA) with the greatest level social vulnerability versus the lowest, least vulnerable ZCTA’s, increased PrCA risk by 39% [ORadj 1.39 (1.11, 1.75)]. While accounting for known risk factors for PrCA, including age, race, and marital status, we found geographic areas in SC characterized by higher than average social vulnerability with higher rates of incident PrCA among veterans. Outreach for screening, education, and care coordination may be needed for veterans in these areas.

Background The 3 fluoroquinolone (FQ) antibiotics - ciprofoxacin, levofoxacin, and moxifoxacin - are commonly administered to oncology patients. Although these oral antibiotics are approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for treatment of urinary tract infections, acute bacterial sinusitis, or bacterial infection in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, they are commonly prescribed off-label to neutropenic cancer patients for the prevention and treatment of infections associated with febrile neutropenia. New serious FQ-associated safety concerns have been identified through novel collaborations between FQ-treated persons who have developed long-term neuropsychiatric (NP) toxicity, pharmacovigilance experts, and basic scientists. Objective To conduct basic science and clinical investigations of a newly identified adverse drug reaction, termed FQ-associated disability. Methods 5 groups of C57BL/6 mice receiving the antibiotic ciprofoxacin in 10-mg increments (10 mg/kg-50 mg/kg) and 1 group of control mice were evaluated. The Southern Network on Adverse Reactions (SONAR) and a social network of FQ-treated persons with long-term NP toxicity (the Floxed Network) conducted a web-based survey. The clinical toxicity manifestations reported by 94 respondents to the web-based survey of persons who had received 1 or more doses of an FQ prescribed for any indication (generally at FDA-approved dosages) and who subsequently experienced possible adverse drug reactions were compared with adverse event information included on the product label for levofoxacin and with FQ-associated adverse events reported to the FDA's MedWatch program. Results Mice treated with ciprofoxacin had lower grip strengths, reduced balance, and depressive behavior compared with the controls. For the survey, 93 of 94 respondents reported FQ-associated events including anxiety, depression, insomnia, panic attacks, clouded thinking, depersonalization, suicidal thoughts, psychosis, nightmares, and impaired memory beginning within days of FQ initiation or days to months of FQ discontinuation. The FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) included 210,705 adverse events and 2,991 fatalities for FQs. Levofoxacin and ciprofoxacin toxicities were neurologic (30% and 26%, respectively), tendon damage (8% and 6%), and psychiatric (10% and 2%). In 2013, an FDA safety review reported that FQs affect mammalian topoisomerase II, especially in mitochondria. In 2013 and 2014, SONAR fled citizen petitions requesting black box revisions identifying neuropsychiatric toxicities and mitochrondrial toxicity as serious levofoxacin-associated adverse drug reactions. In 2015, FDA advisors recommended that FQ product labels be revised to include information about this newly identified disability syndrome termed "FQ-associated disability" (FQAD). Limitations Basic science studies evaluated NP toxicity for only 1 FQ, ciprofoxacin. Conclusion Pharmacovigilance investigators, a social network, and basic scientists can collaborate on pharmacovigilance investigations. Revised product labels describing a new serious adverse drug reaction, levofoxacin-associated long-term disability, as recommended by an FDA advisory committee, are advised.

Azithromycin and levofloxacin have been shown to be efficacious in treating infections. The adverse drug events associated with azithromycin and levofloxacin were considered rare. However, the US FDA released warnings regarding the possible risk of QT prolongation with azithromycin and levofloxacin.Case reports/case series, observational studies and clinical trials assessing cardiovascular risks associated with azithromycin and levofloxacin were critically reviewed, including 15 case reports/series, 5 observational studies and 5 clinical trials that investigated the cardiac risks associated azithromycin and levofloxacin.Results are discordant. Two retrospective studies utilizing large databases demonstrated an increased risk of cardiovascular death with azithromycin, when azithromycin was compared with amoxicillin. Two other retrospective studies found no difference in cardiovascular death associated with azithromycin and other antibiotics. For levofloxacin, the increased risk of cardiovascular death was only found in one retrospective study. Therefore, the risks and benefits of antibacterial therapies should be considered when making prescription decisions. This study should not preclude clinicians from avoiding azithromycin and levofloxacin. If a patient has an indication to receive an antibiotic and if azithromycin or levofloxacin is needed, it may be used, but the potential risks must be understood.

To address concerns regarding increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCA) among angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) users, we used national retrospective data from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) through the Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure. We identified a total of 543,824 unique Veterans who were classified into either ARB treated or not-treated in 1:15 ratio. The two groups were balanced using inverse probability of treatment weights. A double-robust cox-proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratio for PrCA incidence. To evaluate for a potential Gleason score stage migration, we conducted weighted Cochrane-Armitage test. Post weighting, the rates of PrCA in treated and not-treated groups were 506 (1.5%) and 8,269 (1.6%), respectively; representing a hazard ratio of (0.91, p-value .049). There was no significant difference in Gleason scores between the two groups. We found a small, but statistically significant, reduction in the incidence of clinically detected PrCA among patients assigned to receive ARB with no countervailing effect on degree of differentiation (as indicated by Gleason score). Findings from this study support Food and Drug Administration's recent conclusion that ARB use does not increase risk of incident PrCA.

Hematological abnormalities including neutropenia, anemia, and thrombocytopenia are commonly seen in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. The aim of this study was to identify factors which would help to predict the development of hematological abnormalities in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. During a 4-year period, all patients with chronic hepatitis C started on treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin were identified. Patients were defined as having hematological abnormalities if they had the presence of either anemia, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, or a combination of the above during treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. A total of 136 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included in this study. Fifty-two (38.2%) of the patients developed significant hematological abnormalities during treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin with 28 (20.6%), 30 (22.1%), and 11 (8.1%) developed neutropenia, anemia, and thrombocytopenia, respectively. Genotype 1, history of hypertension, low baseline platelet count, low baseline hemoglobin, as well as a raised creatinine were significant factors associated with the development of hematological abnormalities. Significant hematological abnormalities are commonly present in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. This study identifies pretreatment parameters that may help identify high-risk patients who are more likely to develop hematological abnormalities during treatment for chronic hepatitis C.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: With increasing recognition of overdiagnosis and overtreatment of prostate cancer, increasing exposure has been placed on limiting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer screening. An additional (but underexamined) intervention point to discourage prostate cancer screening is limiting the use of prostate biopsy by urologists. We analyzed the patterns of utilization of prostate biopsy across the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the past decade. METHODS: Men aged between 40 and 80 years with at least one PSA value between 2003 and 2012 were included for analysis. Once men were biopsied, they were subsequently removed from the eligible study population, creating a dynamic cohort of over 250,000 men per year. An autoregressive, ecological parametric model was created to demonstrate trends for prostate biopsy, focusing on differences by race and age. RESULTS: The rate of prostate biopsy in the VHA has declined annually over the past decade (p

PURPOSE Azithromycin use has been associated with increased risk of death among patients at high baseline risk, but not for younger and middle-aged adults. The Food and Drug Administration issued a public warning on azithro- mycin, including a statement that the risks were similar for levofloxacin. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among US veterans to test the hypothesis that taking azithromycin or levofloxacin would increase the risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac arrhythmia compared with persons taking amoxicillin. METHODS We studied a cohort of US veterans (mean age, 56.8 years) who received an exclusive outpatient dispensation of either amoxicillin (n = 979,380), azithromycin (n = 594,792), or levofloxacin (n = 201,798) at the Department of Veterans Affairs between September 1999 and April 2012. Azithromycin was dis- pensed mostly for 5 days, whereas amoxicillin and levofloxacin were dispensed mostly for at least 10 days. RESULTS During treatment days 1 to 5, patients receiving azithromycin had sig- nificantly increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.05-2.09) and serious arrhythmia (HR = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.20-2.62) compared with patients receiving amoxicillin. On treatment days 6 to 10, risks were not statistically differ- ent. Compared with patients receiving amoxicillin, patients receiving levofloxacin for days 1 to 5 had a greater risk of death (HR = 2.49, 95% CI, 1.7-3.64) and serious cardiac arrhythmia (HR = 2.43, 95% CI, 1.56-3.79); this risk remained significantly different for days 6 to 10 for both death (HR = 1.95, 95% CI, 1.32- 2.88) and arrhythmia (HR = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.09-2.82). CONCLUSIONS Compared with amoxicillin, azithromycin resulted in a statistically significant increase in mortality and arrhythmia risks on days 1 to 5, but not 6 to 10. Levofloxacin, which was predominantly dispensed for a minimum of 10 days, resulted in an increased risk throughout the 10-day period.

The appropriateness criteria for echocardiography were published in 2007 and classified potential procedural indications as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate. The appropriate use rates for outpatient transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) by cardiologists have not been well defined. The objective of the present study was to prospectively determine the appropriate use rate of outpatient TTE in a large private practice group of >40 cardiologists (Cardiovascular Consultants, PA, Kansas City, Missouri). For each transthoracic echocardiographic study, we classified the stated reason for the examination into one of the 59 indications specified in the 2007 Appropriateness Criteria for Echocardiography publication. During the study period, 772 transthoracic echocardiographic studies were performed. Adequate information was available to classify 716 (92.7%) of these studies. The transthoracic echocardiographic studies were appropriately ordered for 533 patients (74%). Symptoms of potential cardiac origin (eg, dyspnea) was the most common reason for TTE (n = 156, 21.8%). The most common inappropriate use was routine repeat evaluation of patients with heart failure and no change in clinical status (n = 74, 10.3%). In conclusion, the appropriateness criteria for echocardiography were easily applied to real-world patients. Most patients in our series had undergone TTE for an appropriate indication.

Appropriateness criteria for echocardiography were recently published and classify potential procedural indications as appropriate (scores of 7 to 9), uncertain (scores of 4 to 6), or inappropriate (scores of 1 to 3). The rate of the appropriate utilization of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in clinical practice is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the appropriate utilization rate of TEE in a large consecutive patient series. A retrospective review of consecutive patients referred for TEE within Saint Luke's Health System (Kansas City, Missouri) was performed. The clinical indication for TEE was determined on the basis of a detailed review of preprocedural clinical documentation. These indications were then further classified into 1 of the 59 indications specified in the appropriateness criteria publication. From January 2006 to August 2007, 1,260 patients (mean age 61 years) underwent TEE for clinically indicated reasons. Among the final study group of 1,235 patients, the procedures were appropriate in 1,156 (93.6%). Appropriateness was uncertain in 43 patients (3.5%), and the procedures were inappropriate in 36 patients (2.9%). The most common "appropriate" use of TEE was to inform clinical decision making for atrial fibrillation or flutter. All the "uncertain" cases were for the evaluation of cerebrovascular accidents in patients with normal findings on transthoracic echocardiography, no history of atrial fibrillation, and normal electrocardiographic results. The most common "inappropriate" indication for TEE was evaluation for endocarditis in patients with transient fever but no bacteremia or new murmurs. In conclusion, most transesophageal echocardiographic studies in our health system were performed for appropriate indications.

As of 2013, the Southern Network on Adverse Reactions (SONAR) team described 50 significant adverse drug reactions (sADRs) associated with FDA approved drugs. The team also investigates policy issues surrounding pharmacovigilance. Herein we describe the systematic approach to pharmacovigilance taken by the Southern Network on Adverse Reactions and discuss major findings from the group. By 2015, the team hopes to have identified 20 additional sADRs focusing on biologics, biosimilars, and biobetters. The ultimate goal of SONAR is to decrease the timescale between ADR detection and the dissemination of information regarding the sADR

Intellectual disability (ID) is a major public health condition that usually develops in utero and causes lifelong disability. Despite improvements in pregnancy and delivery care that have resulted in dramatic decreases in infant mortality rates, the incidence of ID has remained constant over the past 20 years. There may still be uncharacterized preventable causes of ID such as Diabetes Mellitus (DM). We used statewide individual level de-identified data for maternal and child pairs obtained by linking Medicaid claims, Department of Education, and Department of Disabilities and Special Needs data from 2000 to 2007 for all mother-child pairs with a minimum follow-up of 3-years post birth or until a diagnosis of ID. To ascertain the adjusted relationship between DM and ID, we fit a logistic regression model taking into account individual level clustering on mothers for multiple pregnancies using the population-averaged Generalized Estimating Equations method. Of the 162,611 eligible maternal and child pairs, 5,667 (3.49 %) of the children were diagnosed with ID between birth and 3-years of age. After adjustment for covariates the independent relationship between DM and ID was significant with odds ratio of 1.10 (1.01-1.12). On sub-analysis, patients with pre-pregnancy DM had the highest effect measure with an estimated odds ratio of 1.32 (0.84, 2.09), although this was not statistically significant. In this large cohort of mothers and children in South Carolina, we found a small but statistically significant increased risk for ID among children born to mothers with DM. Additional information about the association between maternal DM and risk of ID in children may lead to the development of effective preventive interventions on the individual and public health levels.

Patients with chronic hepatitis C infection are 2- to 3-fold more likely to develop type 2 diabetes, which reduces their chances of achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR). To identify differences in predictors of SVR in patients with and without diabetes who received combination antiviral therapy, we conducted a retrospective analysis of a national Veterans Affairs administrative database.We analyzed data from the Veterans Affairs Medical SAS Datasets and Decision Support System for entire cohort and separately for diabetic patients (n = 1704) and nondiabetic patients (n = 6589). Significant predictors of SVR were identified by logistic regression analysis.Diabetic patients had a lower SVR compared with nondiabetic patients (21% vs 27%, respectively, P.001). Diabetic patients had higher clustering of previously established negative predictors of SVR. On multivariate analysis of diabetic patients for SVR, the positive predictors were higher low-density lipoprotein (odds ratio [OR], 1.45; P = .0129), use of statin (OR, 1.52; P = .0124), and lower baseline viral load (OR, 2.31; P.001), whereas insulin therapy (OR, 0.7; P = .0278) was a negative predictor. Diabetic patients on statins had higher pretreatment viral loads (log 6.2 vs 6.4, respectively, P = .006) but better early virologic response. There was a graded inverse relationship between Hemoglobin A1c and SVR rate (P = .0482). This relationship was significant among insulin users (P = .0154) and non-significant among metformin users (P = .5853).Statin use was associated with an improved SVR among both diabetic patients and nondiabetic patients receiving combination antiviral therapy. Diabetic patients who received insulin achieved lower SVR compared with those not receiving insulin. Poor diabetes control was associated with lower SVR rates.

Purpose To test the hypothesis that the pattern of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) change in men diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer (PrCA) differs from the pattern evident in men diagnosed with low-risk PrCA or those with no evidence of PrCA. Methods A retrospective cohort study from which PSA measures were taken before PrCA diagnosis from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Data were fitted using a nonlinear regression model to estimate the adjusted absolute and relative (%) change of PSA. Results Data on 20,888 men with an average age of 61.61 years were included in the analysis. Of these, the 324 (1.55%) diagnosed with high-risk PrCA had a steeper and earlier transition into an exponential pattern of PSA change than the 1368 men diagnosed with low-risk cancer. At 1 year before diagnosis and/or exit, the average absolute PSA rates were 0.05 ng/mL/year (0.05–0.05), 0.59 (0.52–0.66), and 2.60 (2.11–3.09) for men with no evidence of PrCA, men with low-risk PrCA and those with high-risk PrCA, respectively. Conclusions The pattern of PSA change with time was significantly different for men who develop high-risk PrCA from those diagnosed with low-risk PrCA. Further research is required to validate this method and its utilization in PrCA screening.

e18033 Background: PML is a rare, fatal disease that results from reactivation of the JC virus during immunosuppressed states. Previously we reported that rituximab is associated with a 5-fold incr...

e19540 Background: Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) is a rare, fatal disease that results from activation of a highly prevalent, dormant JC virus during immunosuppressed states. Rit...

5091 Background: Prostate cancer patients with locally advanced /metastatic disease have a poor prognosis and although hormonal therapy can induce long-term remission, development of hormone-resistant prostate cancer (HRPC) is inevitable. The goal of this study is to evaluate overall survival in HRPC patients with different transition of care in the Veterans Affairs (VA) system. We hypothesized that prostate cancer patients with late referral to medical oncologists were more likely to have decreased overall survival. Methods: This is a retrospective, observational analysis of patients enrolled in the Veterans Health Administration system from October 2003 to March 2011. Patients were followed from initial evaluation and treatment by urology until an endpoint of death or the end of the study period. VA patients with a diagnosis of HRPC were identified; prostate specific antigen (PSA), medical and pharmacy records were collected. HRPC was defined as PSA doubling after treatment with hormonal therapy. Transition of care was defined as two encounters with the medical oncology service and at least one encounter was a medical oncologist. Three cohorts were created: patients transitioned to oncology before HRPC, those transitioned to oncology after HRPC, and patients who were never transitioned to oncology. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS). The Charlson score was utilized for comorbidity assessment. Statistical analysis was conducted using chi square test for categorical variables. Results: Total number of patients evaluated was 8,281; 2,168 in transition before HRPC (tbHRPC) cohort, 2,052 in transition after HRPC (taHRPC), and 4,061 patients that never transitioned (tnHPRC). The mean ages for the respective cohorts were: 69.35, 69.69, and 71.64. The Charlson comorbidity scores were 3.79 (tbHRPC), 3.06 (taHRPC), and 3.14 (tnHRPC); p-values < 0.05. Mortality rates among the cohorts were 57% tbHRPC, 69% taHRPC, and 62% tnHRPC; p-values

Abstract 2752 Introduction: Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) is a rare but fatal disease that is the result of activation of a highly prevalent dormant JC virus during immunosuppressed states such as advanced HIV, malignancy or immune-modulating medications. Rituximab, an immunomodulator, has been approved for both Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). We previously reported 57-non-HIV patients developed PML after rituximab (1). This report identified the need for epidemiological cohort studies to further evaluate incidence rates and risk factors for PML by comparing Rituximab treated patients with suitable non-treated patients. Of note, natilzumab-associated PML is now well-characterized, with a reported incidence of 21 PML cases per 10,000 natilizumab-treated persons (2). Methods: In this first such epidemiological study we identified from the national data of the Department of Veteran's Affairs (VA), 61,132 patients with a primary International Classification of Diseases version 9 (ICD-9) code for either HL or NHL between 1999 to 2011 and reported the use of Rituximab among patients with and without PML. This project was conducted inside the Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI) after obtaining approvals from the VA Institutional Review Board and other oversight groups. Results: We identified 62,642 with a primary diagnosis of HL or NHL and excluded 1,510 (2.4%) patients with VA lab confirmed HIV. Our final cohort had 61,132 patients, 10,459 (17.1%) received Rituximab. A total of 12 (0.020%) patients had developed PML, 5 (0.008%) belonged to the Rituximab group and 7 (0.011%) to non-rituximab group; which results in a statistically significant unadjusted relative risk of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 1.1, 10.9). Univariate analyses of outcomes other than rate-estimates are not statistically significant between PML patients who received rituximab and those that did not receive rituximab, primarily due to extremely small sample sizes (5 and 7 patients, respectively) (Table 1). Overall, compared to non-rituximab PML patients, rituximab PML patients were younger at PML diagnosis and age of death by more than 6-years; although they did appear to live slightly longer post PML diagnosis by about 4-months. Conclusions: These results show that among lymphoma patients, the use of Rituximab is associated with a statistically significant relative risk for documented PML of 3.46. We now report a baseline rate among Veterans of 4.78 PML cases per 10,000 rituximab treated Veterans with lymphoma (25% of the rate reported among natilizumab-treated multiple sclerosis patients). As with hepatitis B, measurement of JC virus might be considered prior to initiation of rituximab therapy. Acknowledgment: This project was supported through the resources of the Wiliam JB Dorn Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Department of Veterans Affairs or the United States government. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Abstract 4275 Introduction: Annually, $82 billion to $272 billion is reportedly lost to federal health care fraud. Between 1996 and 2005, 379 federal health care fraud cases initiated by qui tam relators (“whistle blowers”) concluded, resulting in $9.3 billion in recoveries. Of these, pharmaceutical companies accounted for 13 cases (False Claims Act (FCA) cases, the primary statute invoked in health care fraud and abuse), but $3.9 billion of recoveries (4% of the cases and 39% of the financial recoveries). We report concluded FCA cases involving pharmaceutical manufacturers between 2006 and 2011. Oncology accounts for the largest per cent of total pharmaceutical expenditures. Over 90% of all new cancer pharmaceuticals cost > $20,000 for 12-weeks of treatment. Methods: Websites for the Department of Justice (DOJ), Taxpayers Against Fraud, Health and Human Services Inspector General's Office, Health Care Fraud and Abuse Control Project, and Lexis/Nexis were queried for pharmaceutical FCA cases (2006 to 2011). Results: Between 2006 and 2011, the DOJ closed 54 cases with pharmaceutical FCA violations, 38 with and 16 without qui tam relators, accounting for recoveries of $11.3 billion (mean $296 million) and $2.6 billion (mean, $165 million), respectively. Illegal marketing is the most common fraud allegations invoked against pharmaceutical manufacturers (19 cases). Pharmaceutical manufacturers accounted for 31% of total FCA cases, and 71.5% of total FCA recoveries (Table 1). Conclusion: Since the DOJ's shift of focus to pharmaceutical corporations in 2001, the trend has intensified, with virtually every large pharmaceutical corporation settling at least one FCA case. Pharmaceutical cases now account for 31% of the federal fraud cases and 71% of the financial recoveries. Fraud and abuse may be an important component of the high costs of cancer care in the United States. Moreover, unless fundamental changes occur, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to be the main FCA investigative target as this sector has the deepest pockets and is the health care sector most resistant to deterrence. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Background: Diabetes and its antecedent condition, metabolic syndrome, have been associated with an increased risk of development of colon polyps and colorectal carcinoma. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently coexists with these conditions and is associated with elevation in serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Our aim was to test our apriori hypothesis that after adjusting for currently established predictors of colon polyps, elevated serum ALT will be associated with increased rate of polypectomy. Methods: We conducted retrospective analysis on ten Veterans affairs (VA) VISN representing half of all VA medical centers, obtained from Veterans Affairs Medical SAS Data sets and Decision Support System from 2002 to 2009. We included adult patients without diabetes mellitus between the ages of 45 and 65 receiving first VA documented outpatient screening colonoscopy using validated methods. We excluded patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection, and those with liver disease from hepatitis C or alcohol abuse as well as those with missing values for ALT. Baseline ALT was defined as the ALT level closest to date of colonoscopy and within 12 months of colonoscopy. We categorized ALT levels to 0 to