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Before geodetically derived strain and rotation rates can be robustly compared to geological or seismological observations, we need reliable strain rate uncertainties. Various methods exist to compute strain rates from GNSS-derived interseismic velocities, but a realistic representation of interpolation uncertainties has remained a challenge. The main problem is that commonly used deterministic interpolation methods do not account for uncertainty resulting from the absence of information in between observation sites. We apply stochastic interpolation by means of ordinary kriging to propagate errors both from discontinuous data coverage as well as from observation uncertainties to our strain rate estimates. However, interseismic horizontal surface velocities in tectonically active regions are spatially highly non-stationary, with high spatial variability around active faults and lower velocity variability in tectonically more stable regions. This requires an extension of traditional ordinary kriging approaches. For interpolation uncertainties that reflect the local variability and spatial correlation of the observed surface velocities, we apply a novel method that incorporates the spatially variable statistics of the underlying data. We estimate realistic uncertainties and covariances of the interpolated velocity field. For regions with a high spatial velocity variability, we find a large increase in uncertainty with increasing distance from observation sites, while in areas with little spatial variability, we estimate a small increase in uncertainty with distance. Subsequently, we propagate interpolated velocity covariance to strain rate uncertainties, such that we can assess the statistical significance of the interpolated strain rate field. Applied to a number of actively deforming regions, including the Pacific coast of North America and Japan, we show to what degree we can robustly determine strain rates based on available GNSS-derived velocities. Realistic unce, Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects

Physical and Space Geodesy

Stress-dependent nonlinear upper mantle rheology has a firm base in rock mechanical tests, where this nonlinearity results from dislocation creep of minerals. In the last few decades there has been some attention to nonlinear, power-law, materials for application in scaled analogue experiments for tectonic processes. However, studies describing the rheology of analogue materials with the same nonlinear dependency on stress as observed for lithospheric mantle materials at relevant stress levels, are still lacking. In this study we have developed and rheologically tested materials based on combinations of silicone polymers and plasticine, with the aim of obtaining a material that can serve as a laboratory analogue to the power-law rheology of olivine aggregates at lithospheric mantle conditions. From our steady-state creep tests we find that it is possible to obtain such a power-law material, with effective viscosities over relevant model stress ranges [5–4000 Pa] that allow for nonlinear deformation at laboratory time scales. We apply the developed material to a process where localized deformation of the lithosphere can be expected: slab break-off. We study this process using analogue models, where we apply the new nonlinear material to the lithospheric mantle domains, while we use Newtonian glucose to represent the low viscous asthenosphere. Now that we properly manage power-law behavior in our analogue lithosphere materials, we are able to model localized lithospheric tearing., ChemE/O&O groep, ChemE/Advanced Soft Matter

Physical and Space Geodesy

Stress-dependent nonlinear upper mantle rheology has a firm base in rock mechanical tests, where this nonlinearity results from dislocation creep of minerals. In the last few decades there has been some attention to nonlinear, power-law, materials for application in scaled analogue experiments for tectonic processes. However, studies describing the rheology of analogue materials with the same nonlinear dependency on stress as observed for lithospheric mantle materials at relevant stress levels, are still lacking. In this study we have developed and rheologically tested materials based on combinations of silicone polymers and plasticine, with the aim of obtaining a material that can serve as a laboratory analogue to the power-law rheology of olivine aggregates at lithospheric mantle conditions. From our steady-state creep tests we find that it is possible to obtain such a power-law material, with effective viscosities over relevant model stress ranges [5–4000 Pa] that allow for nonlinear deformation at laboratory time scales. We apply the developed material to a process where localized deformation of the lithosphere can be expected: slab break-off. We study this process using analogue models, where we apply the new nonlinear material to the lithospheric mantle domains, while we use Newtonian glucose to represent the low viscous asthenosphere. Now that we properly manage power-law behavior in our analogue lithosphere materials, we are able to model localized lithospheric tearing., ChemE/O&O groep, ChemE/Advanced Soft Matter