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We decompose corporate bond and equity index returns into duration-matched government bond returns and the excess returns over this duration-matched counterfactual, which we term duration-adjusted returns. Compared with previously used excess return definitions (ie, returns in excess of Treasury bills), our decomposition leads to markedly different return patterns and asset pricing implications. In particular, we find that investment-grade bonds earn a small credit risk premium, comparable in magnitude to the convenience yield, and that duration adjustment resolves the CAPM's failure to price corporate bonds. These findings highlight the importance of adjusting for nonstationary interest rate environments in asset pricing tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses bids submitted by primary dealer banks at auctions of sovereign bonds to quantify the price elasticity of demand. The price elasticity of demand correlates strongly with the volatility of returns of the same bonds traded in the secondary market but only weakly with their bid-ask spread. It predicts same-bond post-auction returns in the secondary market, even after controlling for pre-auction volatility. The evidence suggests that the price elasticity of demand is associated with the magnitude of price pressure in the secondary market around auction days and proxies for primary dealer risk-bearing capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the 2015 Chinese stock market crash to study the effects of government stock purchases. The Chinese government purchased stocks to stabilize the markets through state-owned financial institutions known as the "National Team." We find that the intervention led to reduced volatility and price informativeness. These impacts are driven by the disclosure of government portfolios. Consistent with investors having a stronger incentive to acquire government intervention information instead of fundamental news, we find reduced information production and information asymmetry following intervention disclosure. The article suggests that government stock purchases involve a trade-off between stability and informational efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that larger trades incur lower trading costs in government bond markets ("size discount"), but costs increase in trade size after controlling for client identity ("size penalty"). The size discount is driven by the cross-client variation of larger traders obtaining better prices, consistent with theories of trading with imperfect competition. The size penalty, driven by the within-client variation, is larger for corporate bonds, during major macroeconomic surprises and during COVID-19. These differences are larger among more sophisticated clients, consistent with information-based theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market segmentation. We show that, when secondary debt markets are segmented, a large selective default probability can be priced in bond yield spreads. Selective default risk accounted for one-third of the yield spread of German external bonds over the risk-free rate during the 1930s. Selective default expectations arose from differences in the creditor countries' economic power over the debtor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new approach to estimating long-term aggregate discount rates using the cross section of earnings and book values to explain current stock prices and extract expected market returns. The proposed discount rate measure is countercyclical. Shocks to it account for nearly half of historical market return variation; in contrast, shocks to other discount rate measures account for no more than 2%. It dominates other measures in explaining time-series variation in returns on duration-sorted portfolios and delivers out-of-sample predictability that exceeds that afforded by other expected return measures and predictive variables. It also performs well in international equity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they reflect the drift in monetary policy rates. Empirically, modeling the monetary policy drift using demographics and productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads to cyclical deviations of bond prices from their drift that predict bond returns in- and out-of-sample. These bond cycles can be interpreted as term premia or/and temporary deviations from rational expectations in a behavioral framework. Through the lens of our model, we detect a significant role of the latter in determining the cyclical properties of yields with short maturities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates spillovers from foreign economies to the U.S. through changes in long-term Treasury yields. We document a decline in the contribution of U.S. domestic news to the variance of long-term Treasury yields and an increased importance of overnight yield changes, a proxy for foreign shocks' contribution to U.S. yields. A model that identifies U.S., Euro area, and U.K. shocks that move global yields suggests that foreign shocks account for at least 20% of the daily variation in long-term U.S. yields in recent years. We also document the predictability of long-term U.S. yields by the U.S.–foreign yield spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The beginner's exam on external constitutional law took place in 2023 at the University of Hamburg. The exam included references to international and European law with a focus on norm verification procedures and protection of fundamental rights. In one case, the issue is the state recognition of naturopaths, which is regulated by an EU directive. A person, A, is suing against the rejection of their recognition and ultimately files a constitutional complaint. In another case, the issue is Arachnien government bonds and the refusal of payments due to a state of emergency. It is being discussed whether the Hamburg Regional Court must refer the question of the state of emergency to the Federal Constitutional Court. In another case, the legalization of cannabis in German law is being discussed and whether it is compatible with international legal obligations. [Extracted from the article]

This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and macroeconomic variables on the Long-term Government Bond Yields Interest Rate. The data in this study was sourced from OECD statistical data and the World Bank with the quarterly period Q1 2016 – Q4 2023. This study used the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method of the data panel. The analysis results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative and significant impact on interest rates on long-term government bonds in Emerging Markets countries in the long term, indicating downward pressure in response to economic uncertainty. However, in the short term, the impact is insignificant, raising questions about other factors affecting interest rates. Rising inflation in the short run tends to increase interest rates, while the relationship between inflation and interest rates in the long run becomes more complex. Exchange rate depreciation can increase demand for long-term government bonds and interest rates in the long run, but it does not have a significant impact in the short term. The implications of these findings emphasize the need for Emerging Markets countries to take proactive action in formulating economic policies that are adaptive and responsive to rapidly changing market conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a theory of information spillovers in sovereign bond markets in which investors can learn about default risk before trading in primary and secondary markets. If primary markets are structured as multi-unit discriminatory-price auctions, an endogenous winner's curse leads to strategic complementarities in information acquisition. Shocks to default risk in one country may trigger crisis episodes with widespread information acquisition, sharp increases in the level and volatility of yields in risky countries, low and stable yields in safe countries, market segmentation, and arbitrage profits between primary and secondary markets. These predictions are consistent with the dynamics of auction informativeness during the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, which we measure using the reaction of secondary market yields to primary market yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the growing emphasis on responsible investing, the role of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in risk management has become significant, extending to the field of sovereign bonds. This study examines the role of ESG evaluations in the risk management of sovereign bond investments. Across fifty countries, including developed and emerging countries, our findings indicate that, even after controlling each country's yield levels and fiscal conditions, nations with lower ESG scores tend to face higher market risks, notably regarding tail risk measures. This pattern is especially pronounced in the bonds of emerging countries. The research highlights that ESG evaluation of sovereign bonds can provide insight into the likelihood of unforeseen events, such as political turmoil and natural disasters, often not reflected in sovereign bond yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a dataset of bank‐ and regional‐level data, we study the effectiveness and heterogeneity of the transmission mechanism of the ECB's large scale asset purchases (LSAPs) to the real economy. Our results indicate that banks more exposed to government debt securities had higher growth of loans and loans relative to total assets than less exposed banks after the asset purchase programme (APP), but not after the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP). Furthermore, our results demonstrate that regions where banks are more exposed to government securities exhibit more favorable outcomes after the APP in GDP, fixed capital formation, unemployment, and compensation of employees than regions with less exposed banks, via the bank lending channel. We argue that banks' exposure to LSAPs targeted assets and their geographical location is an important factor determining the magnitude and heterogeneity of the portfolio rebalancing transmission mechanism to the real economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis, the ideational consensus that shaped the foundation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was destabilized by disagreement on unconventional monetary policies (UMPs), specifically government bond purchases. In the ECB's 2021 strategy review, however, UMPs were confirmed as standard elements of the European Central Bank's (ECB) toolbox. What happened? One argument frequently presented to question the legitimacy of UMPs is that they undermine the prior objective of the EMU of avoiding moral hazard. We analyse the politics of UMPs by focusing upon how top officials in four major Eurozone central banks have discursively constructed the relationship between the ECB's purchase of sovereign debt and moral hazard. We find that top central bank officials aligned to a large degree on the non‐necessary causal relationship between government bond purchases and moral hazard, which reinforced its legitimacy and eventual acceptance as 'conventional'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analogous to an experienced mariner choosing a safe harbour depending on the wind direction, we hypothesize safe-haven asset(s) are conditional on the cause of the market fall. Using oil markets as a salient case study, we find that traditional safe-haven assets, such as the US dollar and government bonds, act as safe havens only when oil prices fall due to declines in actual or expected demand. On the other hand, stock markets provide safe-haven protection when oil prices fall due to increases in oil supply. Therefore, our results suggest that papers that seek to identify safe-haven assets in response to declines in a given asset's return need to test for the possibility that the identified assets might not be safe-haven assets in all circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the precautionary and involuntary determinants of excess liquidity in the Algerian banking system over the period Q1 1995–Q1 2019. Through the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach, the results show that the excess liquidity is a consequence of lagged excess liquidity to deposit ratio, required reserves to deposit ratio and the output gap in the short run. In the long-run, Algerian Banks demand excess liquidity for precautionary and involuntary factors. The precautionary determinants include required reserves to deposits ratio, volatility of currency in circulation to deposits ratio and the discount rate. The involuntary determinants reflect four characteristics of the Algerian banking system. The first is the impact of hydrocarbon revenues in excess liquidity indirectly by financing the State's expenditures. The second is the development of total bank deposits, which are largely determined by hydrocarbon exports. Third, public companies continue to dominate bank loans at the expense of the private sector share. Fourth, government debt markets are underdeveloped and government intervention continues to force banks to make regular purchases of government bonds. The banks can avoid the cost of excess liquidity by enhancing the credit to private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the synchronization of the Eurozone's government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we combine principal component analysis with random matrix theory. We find that synchronization depends on yield maturity. Short-term yields are not synchronized. Medium- and long-term yields, instead, were highly synchronized early after the introduction of the Euro. Synchronization then decreased significantly during the Great Recession and the European Debt Crisis, to partially recover after 2015. We interpret our empirical results using portfolio theory, and we point to divergence trades as a source of the self-sustained yield asynchronous dynamics. Our results envisage synchronization as a requirement for the smooth transmission of conventional monetary policy in the Eurozone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies a continuous-time asset-liability management problem with a defaultable bond under stochastic interest rates and stochastic default intensity. Specifically, an asset-liability manager is allowed to invest in a cash, a treasury bond, a defaultable bond and a stock. Using the stochastic control scheme and partial differential equation approach, we derive closed-form expressions for optimal investment strategies and corresponding value functions under the power and exponential utility functions. In addition, we also provide numerical experiments to illustrate the impact of relevant parameters in the default process and recovery rate on the optimal asset allocation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the potential of Climate Transition Bonds as strategic financial instruments in promoting green transformations within Japan's carbon-intensive sectors. Through a qualitative case study approach, we assess four prominent bond issuances—Japan Government Bonds, MUFG Bonds, TEPCO Bonds, and SMBC Bonds—focusing on their contributions to emissions reduction, renewable energy expansion, and technological innovation. The analysis reveals that these bonds play a pivotal role in enabling Japan to advance its carbon neutrality goals by financing key decarbonization projects. However, significant challenges persist, including the limited scalability of emerging technologies, disparities in economic benefits across sectors, and governance inefficiencies that may hinder optimal outcomes. The findings underscore the necessity of refining collaborative governance frameworks to enhance transparency, stakeholder inclusivity and regulatory oversight in the deployment of these bonds. This paper contributes to the discourse on sustainable finance by elucidating the policy implications of climate transition bonds, proposing avenues for improved governance, and highlighting the structural adjustments required to align these financial mechanisms with Japan's long-term sustainability objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how macroeconomic news affected the spreads of Italian sovereign bonds before and during the quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Daily changes in the bond spreads are regressed on macroeconomic news shocks, where the news shocks are computed as the difference between the published data and the preceding private-sector forecasts. The analysis shows that macroeconomic news shocks had economically and statistically significant effects on Italian bond spreads in 2012–2014 before quantitative easing, while the effects were negligible afterwards although with a partial exception of a period in 2019 when the net asset purchases were paused. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the US Treasury bond market, the existence of a bond pair (two bonds with the same maturity but different coupons) is shown to allow the computation of the zero‐coupon interest rate for that maturity directly from the bond prices, as well as the zero‐coupon interest rates for adjacent maturity bonds with the same number of coupon payments. Since the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the number of bond pairs has increased, allowing for the direct estimation from bond prices of the zero‐coupon interest rates for an average of 180 individual maturities for bond maturities between 6 months and 30 years. The bond pairs approach outperforms popular yield‐curve‐fitting models in accurately reproducing original bond prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research explores the efficacy of rebalancing strategies in a diversified portfolio constructed exclusively with exchange-traded funds (ETFs). We selected five ETF types: short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. equities, global commodities, U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs), and a multi-strategy hedge fund. Using a 10-year historical period, we applied a unique simulation model to generate random portfolios with varying asset weights and rebalancing tolerance bands, assessing the impact of rebalancing premiums on portfolio performance. Our study reveals a significant positive correlation (r = 0.6492, p < 0.001) between rebalancing-weighted returns and the Sharpe ratio, indicating that effective rebalancing enhances risk-adjusted returns. Support vector regression (SVR) analysis shows that rebalancing premiums have diverse effects. Specifically, equities and commodities benefit from rebalancing with improved risk-adjusted returns, while bonds and REITs demonstrate a negative relationship, suggesting that rebalancing might be less effective or even detrimental for these assets. Our findings also indicate that negative portfolio rebalancing returns combined with positive rebalancing-weighted returns yield the highest average Sharpe ratio of 0.4328, highlighting a distinct and reciprocal relationship between rebalancing effects at the asset and portfolio levels. This research highlights that while rebalancing can enhance portfolio performance, its effectiveness varies by asset class and market conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce test procedures for no fractional cointegration against possible breaks to a fractional cointegrating relationship in a segment of the data. We base the proposed tests on the supremum of the Hassler and Breitung (Econom Theor 22(6):1091–1111, 2006) test statistic for no cointegration over possible breakpoints in the long-run equilibrium. We show that the new tests correctly standardized converge to the supremum of a Chi-squared distribution and that this convergence is uniform. An in-depth Monte Carlo analysis provides results on the finite sample performance of our tests. We then use the new procedures to investigate whether there was a dissolution of fractional cointegrating relationships between the yields of government bonds of eleven EMU countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Belgium, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany and France) as a consequence of the European debt crisis and to understand the degree of interdependence of lending rates to non-financial corporations across these eleven countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We decompose the yield curve of U.S. Treasury bonds into three components—the level, slope, and curvature. We then explore the interaction between these factors and uncertainty in the U.S. bond market. We assess this uncertainty using a VIX-style estimate originating in options on the CBOE's Treasury Note futures. Using monthly data for 2003–2020, we find that interest rate uncertainty drives the evolution in the shape of the yield curve, but not vice versa. Specifically, the bond market's VIX-style metric not only correlates with but also influences the yield curve's level and slope. Moreover, increased uncertainty about interest rates is negatively associated with, and can significantly influence, the yield curve's curvature. The results of this study are crucial for both policymakers and money managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A developed and vibrant corporate bond market provides an important means of financial resources to corporate, in addition to bank financing. It brings transparency and prudence into financial system and helps in minimizing risks in financial system through diversification. The main objective of this study is to find out the various issues and hurdles faced by retail investors and come out with appropriate suggestions in this regard. A modest attempt has also been made to understand the present status of the Indian corporate bond market in reference to retail investors participation. The study reveals that, in spite of sincere efforts of policymakers, the participation of retail investors in Indian corporate bond market are negligible. It has also been observed that the important issues of retail investors are related to safety of principal, returns, liquidity and tax benefits. It is expected that the suggestions made in this paper, if implemented, will definitely helpful in attracting retail investors to Indian corporate bond market.

This paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy, banking liquidity, and macroeconomic factors on the government bond yield in Vietnam by employing a VAR model. Our findings show that the central bank policy interest rate plays a significant role in government bond yield both in the short- and long-term. There was a downward trend of government bonds in the period 2007–2019 thanks to the improvement of banking system liquidity as well as macroeconomic stability. The results are robust when the government bond yield is computed by three factors, including level, slope, and curvature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide conditions for the feasibility of robust Pareto-improving (RPI) policies when markets are incomplete and the interest rate is below the growth rate. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity in preferences and income risk and a wedge between the return to capital and bonds. An RPI improves risk sharing and can induce a more efficient level of capital. Elasticities of aggregate savings to changes in interest rates are the crucial ingredients to the feasibility of RPIs. Government debt may complement rather than substitute for capital in an RPI. Our analysis emphasizes the welfare-improving qualities of government bonds versus explicit redistribution. (JEL D52, E43, E62, H20, H63) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analysed several emerging market (EM) and developed market (DM) sovereign yield curves to identify the proportion of parallel and non-parallel shifts over time. We found that non-parallel shifts are more prevalent in EM due to higher political and economic risks. Key drivers include systemic risk events like wars, debt distress, and pandemics. By backtesting a long butterfly strategy to extract non-parallel risk premia from June 2007 to March 2024, we observed that steeper slopes and greater curvature result in higher returns. We also quantified monetary and fiscal regimes to determine what types of policies are required to extract non-parallel risk premia from these sovereign yield curves. Our research suggests that countries with opposing monetary and fiscal policies possess higher return opportunities whilst countries with complementing policies require tactical butterfly strategies to optimise returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate corporate bond returns for the period 1838–1939 by compiling a unique new database of 201 000 monthly observations of bonds traded on the Brussels Stock Exchange. The value‐weighted annualized total rate of return, net of coupon defaults and taxes, is 4.35 per cent in nominal terms and 2.81 per cent in real terms. Estimates of average returns show that corporate bonds outperformed equities during the entire nineteenth century. We find that the risk‐adjusted performance of corporate bonds based on Sharpe ratios exceeds that of equities and sovereign bonds during the corporate bond market's first centennial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes a novel copula model to understand the dependence between extreme variations in stock and government bond returns. This model is used to introduce a tail-based extension of the safe haven concept, which we refer to as a tail risk dampener. Our findings reveal significant cross-country differences in stock–bond local tail dependence and tail risk dampening abilities. Some countries' bond market can lessen the impact on portfolio returns of extreme negative stock returns, while for others no such negative tail comovement is found. This tail comovement is also not always aligned with global comovement between stocks and bonds. The article concludes that a comprehensive understanding of the comovement and the resulting diversification potential between stock and bond returns necessitates complementing global measures of dependence with local tail measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historians of economic thought have generally described Walter Bagehot as a scarcely original economist. This is tied to his refusal to adopt normative reasoning, which was deeply rooted in his evolutionary approach. This paper focuses on Bagehot's opinions about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy, which allows putting his thought in perspective beyond the narrow question of lending of last resort. We reconstruct his innovative views on the liquidity of short-term government securities, which cannot be found in his predecessors. Bagehot's views were highly influential, as they led to the modernisation of government borrowing in the UK through the creation of the modern Treasury bill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractWhat determines government access to capital? Conventional explanations of state credit access rest on tenuous assumptions and fail to fully elucidate market behavior seen in recent years. This article argues that investors evaluate governments based on their diplomatic ties to the West. Specifically, diplomacy with major Western powers serves as a heuristic which signals to market actors that the debtor state is a trustworthy borrower with low default risk. Focusing on in-person diplomacy with the United States, I construct a new data set, the United States Economic Diplomacy (USED) Data, which codes over 5,000 meetings between the US President, US Treasury Secretary, and high-level foreign policymakers from 1990 to 2016. Among a sample of 110 countries, the statistical results uncover evidence of a significant but conditional “Western advantage” in sovereign bond markets. Greater diplomatic ties to the United States are associated with higher volumes of bond issuance. This advantage, however, manifests itself primarily when global capital is scarce and reverses as lower global interest rates incentivize greater risk-taking among investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Psychology / Revista de Psihologie is the property of Romanian Academy Publishing House / Editura Academiei Romane and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Polish Journal of Economics / Gospodarka Narodowa is the property of SGH Warsaw School of Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article presents and interprets long-run evidence on corporate bonds since the 1860s for both the United States and United Kingdom. Even very high-quality corporate bonds have provided a significant credit risk premium, and the reward from buying high-yield (or junk) bonds is appreciably higher. Yield spreads of corporates over government bonds incorporate this premium but are not a measure of the expected premium because they also encapsulate expected default losses. This study reports on default and recovery rates over the long haul and reviews the determinants of yield spreads and default rates. The authors present evidence showing that corporate bonds are a distinct asset class. Finally, it examines whether factors and other return regularities can help boost corporate bond returns and provide positive premia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide evidence that the yield impact of unconventional monetary policy is not a sufficient statistic to measure the strength of the bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy. As a laboratory, we study three major positive events in the European sovereign debt crisis—the Greek debt restructuring (private sector involvement (PSI)), outright monetary transactions (OMT), and quantitative easing (QE)—using credit registry and security-level bank balance sheet data from Portugal, a country that was directly exposed to all three events. Even though the price of sovereign debt increased by substantially more after the PSI and OMT announcements, only QE led banks to reduce their net sovereign debt holdings and had statistically and economically significant effects on lending to firms and households. The differential effect on banks' behavior reflects two forces. First, lower bank capitalization levels during the PSI and OMT episodes as well as disincentives to sell sovereign bonds because of their collateral value in the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operation facilities reduce the effectiveness of the recapitalization channel. Second, only QE involved direct asset purchases by the central bank and thereby induced a portfolio rebalancing channel from sovereign debt to loans. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: The contribution by G. Nogueira to this paper has been prepared under the Lamfalussy Fellowship Program sponsored by the European Central Bank. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00104. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The allocation of Sharia Government Securities (SBSN) as a financial resource for the Ministry of Defense and the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) is a new policy. However, the implementation communication process reveals a significant gap in understanding among institutions regarding SBSN policies. This research investigates this phenomenon using structuration analysis to identify causes and proposes inter-agency policy structuration to enhance control over SBSN financial resources for defense. Employing qualitative methods supported by expert panels, the research focuses on the structuration and communication of public policy among the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Finance, Bappenas, and the Indonesian Navy to empower SBSN financial resources. Findings highlight a lack of understanding and delayed program awareness, originating from its belated inclusion in the 2021 Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Principles document. SBSN financing is seen as crucial for realizing the TNI AL (Navy) program under the Ministry of Defense's authority, with policy negotiations predominantly influenced by Bappenas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boilerplate contracts have long fascinated legal scholars. But the focus has been largely on consumer contracts, with the debate centered on the question of whether take-it-or-leave-it mass-produced forms imposed on consumers by large corporations should be treated as contracts or as a problem in regulation. By contrast, commercial boilerplate—the standard forms used in transactions for corporate or sovereign bonds or merger agreements—has traditionally received little attention. The assumption has been that form contracts among sophisticated parties may differ in form but not in substance from bespoke contracts between business entities. Yet a growing body of scholarship is questioning that assumption. This article reviews the complexities of contract production in these large markets and provides a window into an exciting new area of contracts research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider whether government bonds, through the term structure, or corporate bonds, through the default yield, provide predictive power for output, consumption and investment growth in the United States. Such predictive power will allow policy‐makers to use the information as a leading indicator for macroeconomic performance and will improve our understanding of the links between real and financial markets. Full sample results suggest that both interest rate series exhibit predictive power for each of the macroeconomic growth series. Time‐variation in the predictive coefficient reveals the waning influence of the term structure and the rising influence of the default yield. Forecast results, which are obtained from a rolling window approach, likewise suggest both series have information content for macroeconomic conditions, but there is a change in their relative strengths. These results may arise as interest rates have declined since the highs of the early to mid‐1980s thus reducing the information content of government yields, whereas corporate bonds respond more to investor views of macroeconomic risk, which affects a firm's ability to repay its debt. Furthermore, short‐term rates are largely held unprecedently low since the dotcom crash. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze whether the textual complexity of tax bills affects financial markets. Based on the Flesch-Kincaid grade level of the 32 tax bills identified by Romer (Am Econ Rev 100(3):763–801, 2010)in the period 1962–2003, we assess the relationship between tax bills' textual complexity and financial markets in various windows around the signing of a bill. Our results show a negative (positive) and significant relationship between the present value of tax bills and changes in the 10-year government bond yields (S &P 500 returns). The magnitude of this relationship increases over time, suggesting that market participants underreact at first and need a couple of days to digest the information contained in the tax bills. This delay can be explained by the textual characteristics of the bills in the case of the 10-year yields as a lower readability partly counteracts the negative relationship for up to three days after the signing of a tax bill. In the case of the stock market, we find similar evidence, but only for a part of the readability measures employed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article "Greek Economic Outlook" discusses the State Budget, public debt, and fiscal figures perspectives in Greece. It highlights the 2024 State Budget execution and the 2025 Preliminary Draft State Budget, showing an estimated real GDP growth rate of 2.2% for 2024. The article also mentions an increase in tax collection and a decrease in public investment program spending. Despite positive conditions for the Greek economy, uncertainties and risks, such as a potential energy crisis, could negatively impact growth. Additionally, the public debt is expected to decrease to 149.1% of GDP in 2025. [Extracted from the article]

The excess levels of investor participation coupled with irrational behaviour in the South African bond market causes excess volatility, which in turn exposes investors to losses. Consequently, the study aims to examine the effect of market-wide investor sentiment on government bond index returns of varying maturities under changing market conditions. This study constructs a new market-wide investor sentiment index for South Africa and uses the two-state Markov regime-switching model for the sample period 2007/03 to 2024/01. The findings illustrate that the effect investor sentiment has on government bond indices returns of varying maturities is regime-specific and time-varying. For instance, the 1–3-year government index return and the over-12-year government bond index were negatively affected by investor sentiment in a bull market condition and not in a bear market condition. Moreover, the bullish market condition prevailed among the returns of selected government bond indices of varying maturities. The findings suggest that the government bond market is adaptive, as proposed by AMH, and contains alternating efficiencies. The study contributes to the emerging market literature, which is limited. That being said, it uses market-wide investor sentiment as a tool to make pronunciations on asset selection, portfolio formulation, and portfolio diversification, which assists in limiting investor losses. Moreover, the findings of the study contribute to settling the debate surrounding the efficiency of bond markets and the effect between market-wide sentiment and bond index returns in South Africa. That being said, it is nonlinear, which is a better modelled using nonlinear models and alternates with market conditions, making the government bond market adaptive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research focuses on examining and verifying the epistle (Risalah) titled "Al-Qawl Al-Shahir Fi Tahqiq Al-Idgham Al-Kabir" (The Famous Statement on the Verification of the Great Assimilation) by Abu Zaid ibn Al-Qadi. It includes an introduction to the author his treatise methodology and a description of the handwritten copies. • Investigation Methodology: In the study section I used the analytical and descriptive methods according to what the nature of the scientific material that is the subject of the study requires. The most important objectives of this research: 1- To identify the approach of the people of Morocco in the great assimilation of Abu Amr al-Basri and what they have settled on in practice. 2- To honor our venerable scholars by spreading their knowledge and bringing their writings out of the treasuries and into the facilities of reading and learning. 3- To serve the science of readings by highlighting what our great ancestors wrote about it which is of great importance to those who come after them. 4- To publish this message in the best possible way; so that everyone who reads it can benefit from it. Result: The epistle clarifies what Imam Abu Omar Al-Basri adopted in his reading in the chapter of the Great Assimilation from the two narratives of Al-Duri and Al-Susi with references to others as well. It also discusses the recitation performance of the people of the Maghreb Arab (Northwest Africa) in this chapter as narrated by Abu Omar from the two aforementioned narratives which is assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fiscal rules are argued to be important for sound and sustainable fiscal policies and have been increasingly adopted over the last 20 years. As increased fiscal pressure and fiscal risks urge countries to address the public debt legacy left by recent economic crises, fiscal rules come under greater scrutiny. To inform the debate on fiscal frameworks, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of the empirical literature on the impact of fiscal rules. In particular, we discuss the recent empirical literature that investigates the impact of fiscal rules on various elements related to fiscal performance and beyond. Our survey finds that fiscal rules are associated with improved fiscal performance as approximated by improved budget balances, lower debt and lower public spending volatility. Furthermore, empirical research finds that fiscal rules are related to more accurate budget forecasts and improved sovereign bond ratings. From a macroeconomic perspective, well-designed fiscal rules do not principally undermine public investment, do not increase pro-cyclicality in fiscal policy-making and can support fiscal consolidations. These results, however, also depend on the broader economic and institutional context. Moreover, there is emerging literature that links fiscal rules to macroeconomic and broader political outcomes, such as income inequality and political polarisation. We discuss methodological challenges related to identification and point to avenues for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to reflect on the spending reviews' capacity-building initiatives undertaken over the years, the experience and methodology employed. It discusses the feedback collected from survey questionnaires developed during and upon completion of each spending review capacity-building initiative and shares a case study of a completed and actioned spending review. The paper details the contribution of spending review training in building capacity of officials working in National and Provincial Treasuries in South Africa. It is argued that the spending review capacity-building initiatives contributed to the adoption of spending reviews as part of the annual budget process, culminating into the issuing of a government-wide guideline to use it as a tool in budgeting processes from 2021. This research not only contributes to the body of work on knowledge-transfer theory, but also offers lessons learnt in undertaking capacity building for public sector officials to promote knowledge transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines nonlinear and time‐varying dependence structures between a pair of stochastic variables, using a novel approach which combines regime‐switching models and local Gaussian correlation (LGC). We propose an LGC‐based bootstrap test for examining whether the dependence structure between two variables is equal across different regimes. We examine this test in a Monte Carlo study, where it shows good level and power properties. We argue that this approach is more intuitive than competing approaches, typically combining regime‐switching models with copula theory. Furthermore, LGC is a semi‐parametric approach, hence avoids any parametric specification of the dependence structure. We illustrate our approach using financial returns from the US–UK stock markets and the US stock and government bond markets, and provide detailed insight into their dependence structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]