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Providing effective guidance for users has long been an important and challenging task for efficient exploratory visual analytics, especially when selecting variables for visualization in high-dimensional datasets. Correlation is the most widely applied metric for guidance in statistical and analytical tools, however a reliance on correlation may lead users towards false positives when interpreting causal relations in the data. In this work, inspired by prior insights on the benefits of counterfactual visualization in supporting visual causal inference, we propose a novel, simple, and efficient counterfactual guidance method to enhance causal inference performance in guided exploratory analytics based on insights and concerns gathered from expert interviews. Our technique aims to capitalize on the benefits of counterfactual approaches while reducing their complexity for users. We integrated counterfactual guidance into an exploratory visual analytics system, and using a synthetically generated ground-truth causal dataset, conducted a comparative user study and evaluated to what extent counterfactual guidance can help lead users to more precise visual causal inferences. The results suggest that counterfactual guidance improved visual causal inference performance, and also led to different exploratory behaviors compared to correlation-based guidance. Based on these findings, we offer future directions and challenges for incorporating counterfactual guidance to better support exploratory visual analytics.

"Correlation does not imply causation" is a famous mantra in statistical and visual analysis. However, consumers of visualizations often draw causal conclusions when only correlations between variables are shown. In this paper, we investigate factors that contribute to causal relationships users perceive in visualizations. We collected a corpus of concept pairs from variables in widely used datasets and created visualizations that depict varying correlative associations using three typical statistical chart types. We conducted two MTurk studies on (1) preconceived notions on causal relations without charts, and (2) perceived causal relations with charts, for each concept pair. Our results indicate that people make assumptions about causal relationships between pairs of concepts even without seeing any visualized data. Moreover, our results suggest that these assumptions constitute causal priors that, in combination with visualized association, impact how data visualizations are interpreted. The results also suggest that causal priors may lead to over- or under-estimation in perceived causal relations in different circumstances, and that those priors can also impact users' confidence in their causal assessments. In addition, our results align with prior work, indicating that chart type may also affect causal inference. Using data from the studies, we develop a model to capture the interaction between causal priors and visualized associations as they combine to impact a user's perceived causal relations. In addition to reporting the study results and analyses, we provide an open dataset of causal priors for 56 specific concept pairs that can serve as a potential benchmark for future studies. We also suggest remaining challenges and heuristic-based guidelines to help designers improve visualization design choices to better support visual causal inference.

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to emerge as a technique being applied within visualization research. However, it remains unclear to what extent counterfactuals can aid with visual data communication. In this paper, we primarily focus on assessing the quality of users' understanding of data when provided with counterfactual visualizations. We propose a preliminary model of causality comprehension by connecting theories from causal inference and visual data communication. Leveraging this model, we conducted an empirical study to explore how counterfactuals can improve users' understanding of data in static visualizations. Our results indicate that visualizing counterfactuals had a positive impact on participants' interpretations of causal relations within datasets. These results motivate a discussion of how to more effectively incorporate counterfactuals into data visualizations., Comment: Accepted for publication in Information Visualization

Traditional approaches to data visualization have often focused on comparing different subsets of data, and this is reflected in the many techniques developed and evaluated over the years for visual comparison. Similarly, common workflows for exploratory visualization are built upon the idea of users interactively applying various filter and grouping mechanisms in search of new insights. This paradigm has proven effective at helping users identify correlations between variables that can inform thinking and decision-making. However, recent studies show that consumers of visualizations often draw causal conclusions even when not supported by the data. Motivated by these observations, this article highlights recent advances from a growing community of researchers exploring methods that aim to directly support visual causal inference. However, many of these approaches have their own limitations which limit their use in many real-world scenarios. This article therefore also outlines a set of key open challenges and corresponding priorities for new research to advance the state of the art in visual causal inference., Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications, 44(1), Jan/Feb, 2024

The visual analytics community has long aimed to understand users better and assist them in their analytic endeavors. As a result, numerous conceptual models of visual analytics aim to formalize common workflows, techniques, and goals leveraged by analysts. While many of the existing approaches are rich in detail, they each are specific to a particular aspect of the visual analytic process. Furthermore, with an ever-expanding array of novel artificial intelligence techniques and advances in visual analytic settings, existing conceptual models may not provide enough expressivity to bridge the two fields. In this work, we propose an agent-based conceptual model for the visual analytic process by drawing parallels from the artificial intelligence literature. We present three examples from the visual analytics literature as case studies and examine them in detail using our framework. Our simple yet robust framework unifies the visual analytic pipeline to enable researchers and practitioners to reason about scenarios that are becoming increasingly prominent in the field, namely mixed-initiative, guided, and collaborative analysis. Furthermore, it will allow us to characterize analysts, visual analytic settings, and guidance from the lenses of human agents, environments, and artificial agents, respectively.

Documents in the health domain are often annotated with semantic concepts (i.e., terms) from controlled vocabularies. As the volume of these documents gets large, the annotation work is increasingly done by algorithms. Compared to humans, automatic indexing algorithms are imperfect and may assign wrong terms to documents, which affect subsequent search tasks where queries contain these terms. In this work, we aim to understand the performance impact of using imperfectly assigned terms in Boolean semantic searches. We used MeSH terms and biomedical literature search as a case study. We implemented multiple automatic indexing algorithms on real-world Boolean queries that consist of MeSH terms, and found that (1) probabilistic logic can handle inaccurately assigned terms better than traditional Boolean logic, (2) query-level performance is mostly limited by lowest-performing terms in a query, and (3) mixing a small amount of human indexing with automatic indexing can regain excellent query-level performance. These findings provide important implications for future work on automatic indexing., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, HealthNLP 2023

When people search for information about a new topic within large document collections, they implicitly construct a mental model of the unfamiliar information space to represent what they currently know and guide their exploration into the unknown. Building this mental model can be challenging as it requires not only finding relevant documents, but also synthesizing important concepts and the relationships that connect those concepts both within and across documents. This paper describes a novel interactive approach designed to help users construct a mental model of an unfamiliar information space during exploratory search. We propose a new semantic search system to organize and visualize important concepts and their relations for a set of search results. A user study ($n=20$) was conducted to compare the proposed approach against a baseline faceted search system on exploratory literature search tasks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is more effective in helping users recognize relationships between key concepts, leading to a more sophisticated understanding of the search topic while maintaining similar functionality and usability as a faceted search system., Comment: 37 pages, 12 figures, to be published in ACM Transactions on Interactive Intelligent Systems

Recommendation algorithms have been leveraged in various ways within visualization systems to assist users as they perform of a range of information tasks. One common focus for these techniques has been the recommendation of content, rather than visual form, as a means to assist users in the identification of information that is relevant to their task context. A wide variety of techniques have been proposed to address this general problem, with a range of design choices in how these solutions surface relevant information to users. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in how visualization systems surface recommended content to users during users' visual analysis; introduces a four-dimensional design space for visual content recommendation based on a characterization of prior work; and discusses key observations regarding common patterns and future research opportunities., Comment: Accepted to VIS2022

The informational environment surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic has been widely recognized as fragmented, politicized, and complex [1]. This has resulted in polarized public views regarding the veracity of scientific communication, the severity of the threat posed by the virus, and the necessity of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which can slow the spread of infections [2]. This paper describes CovidCommitment.org, an effort toward enhancing NPI adoption through the combination of a social behavioral commitment device and interactive map-based visualizations of localized infection data as tabulated via a 1-hourdrive-time isochrone. This paper describes the system design and presents a preliminary analysis of user behavior within the system.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the world, data is being gathered and analyzed to better understand the disease. Recognizing the potential for visual analytics technologies to support exploratory analysis and hypothesis generation from longitudinal clinical data, a team of collaborators worked to apply existing event sequence visual analytics technologies to a longitudinal clinical data from a cohort of 998 patients with high rates of COVID-19 infection. This paper describes the initial steps toward this goal, including: (1) the data transformation and processing work required to prepare the data for visual analysis, (2) initial findings and observations, and (3) qualitative feedback and lessons learned which highlight key features as well as limitations to address in future work., Comment: To Appear in Proceedings of Visual Analytics in Healthcare 2021

Complex, high-dimensional data is used in a wide range of domains to explore problems and make decisions. Analysis of high-dimensional data, however, is vulnerable to the hidden influence of confounding variables, especially as users apply ad hoc filtering operations to visualize only specific subsets of an entire dataset. Thus, visual data-driven analysis can mislead users and encourage mistaken assumptions about causality or the strength of relationships between features. This work introduces a novel visual approach designed to reveal the presence of confounding variables via counterfactual possibilities during visual data analysis. It is implemented in CoFact, an interactive visualization prototype that determines and visualizes \textit{counterfactual subsets} to better support user exploration of feature relationships. Using publicly available datasets, we conducted a controlled user study to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach; the results indicate that users exposed to counterfactual visualizations formed more careful judgments about feature-to-outcome relationships., Comment: To Appear in IEEE TVCG (and be presented at IEEE VIS 2021)

Visual analytics systems enable highly interactive exploratory data analysis. Across a range of fields, these technologies have been successfully employed to help users learn from complex data. However, these same exploratory visualization techniques make it easy for users to discover spurious findings. This paper proposes new methods to monitor a user's analytic focus during visual analysis of structured datasets and use it to surface relevant articles that contextualize the visualized findings. Motivated by interactive analyses of electronic health data, this paper introduces a formal model of analytic focus, a computational approach to dynamically update the focus model at the time of user interaction, and a prototype application that leverages this model to surface relevant medical publications to users during visual analysis of a large corpus of medical records. Evaluation results with 24 users show that the modeling approach has high levels of accuracy and is able to surface highly relevant medical abstracts., Comment: Accepted to CHI2021

Causality is crucial to understanding the mechanisms behind complex systems and making decisions that lead to intended outcomes. Event sequence data is widely collected from many real-world processes, such as electronic health records, web clickstreams, and financial transactions, which transmit a great deal of information reflecting the causal relations among event types. Unfortunately, recovering causalities from observational event sequences is challenging, as the heterogeneous and high-dimensional event variables are often connected to rather complex underlying event excitation mechanisms that are hard to infer from limited observations. Many existing automated causal analysis techniques suffer from poor explainability and fail to include an adequate amount of human knowledge. In this paper, we introduce a visual analytics method for recovering causalities in event sequence data. We extend the Granger causality analysis algorithm on Hawkes processes to incorporate user feedback into causal model refinement. The visualization system includes an interactive causal analysis framework that supports bottom-up causal exploration, iterative causal verification and refinement, and causal comparison through a set of novel visualizations and interactions. We report two forms of evaluation: a quantitative evaluation of the model improvements resulting from the user-feedback mechanism, and a qualitative evaluation through case studies in different application domains to demonstrate the usefulness of the system.

The collection and visual analysis of large-scale data from complex systems, such as electronic health records or clickstream data, has become increasingly common across a wide range of industries. This type of retrospective visual analysis, however, is prone to a variety of selection bias effects, especially for high-dimensional data where only a subset of dimensions is visualized at any given time. The risk of selection bias is even higher when analysts dynamically apply filters or perform grouping operations during ad hoc analyses. These bias effects threatens the validity and generalizability of insights discovered during visual analysis as the basis for decision making. Past work has focused on bias transparency, helping users understand when selection bias may have occurred. However, countering the effects of selection bias via bias mitigation is typically left for the user to accomplish as a separate process. Dynamic reweighting (DR) is a novel computational approach to selection bias mitigation that helps users craft bias-corrected visualizations. This paper describes the DR workflow, introduces key DR visualization designs, and presents statistical methods that support the DR process. Use cases from the medical domain, as well as findings from domain expert user interviews, are also reported., Comment: This article will be published in IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (TVCG) in January 2021. The work will also be presented at IEEE VIS 2020. Video figure available here: https://vimeo.com/442775090

Event sequence data record series of discrete events in the time order of occurrence. They are commonly observed in a variety of applications ranging from electronic health records to network logs, with the characteristics of large-scale, high-dimensional, and heterogeneous. This high complexity of event sequence data makes it difficult for analysts to manually explore and find patterns, resulting in ever-increasing needs for computational and perceptual aids from visual analytics techniques to extract and communicate insights from event sequence datasets. In this paper, we review the state-of-the-art visual analytics approaches, characterize them with our proposed design space, and categorize them based on analytical tasks and applications. From our review of relevant literature, we have also identified several remaining research challenges and future research opportunities.

Anomaly detection is a common analytical task that aims to identify rare cases that differ from the typical cases that make up the majority of a dataset. When applied to the analysis of event sequence data, the task of anomaly detection can be complex because the sequential and temporal nature of such data results in diverse definitions and flexible forms of anomalies. This, in turn, increases the difficulty in interpreting detected anomalies. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised anomaly detection algorithm based on Variational AutoEncoders (VAE) to estimate underlying normal progressions for each given sequence represented as occurrence probabilities of events along the sequence progression. Events in violation of their occurrence probability are identified as abnormal. We also introduce a visualization system, EventThread3, to support interactive exploration and interpretations of anomalies within the context of normal sequence progressions in the dataset through comprehensive one-to-many sequence comparison. Finally, we quantitatively evaluate the performance of our anomaly detection algorithm and demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through a case study.

Patterns in temporal data can often be found across different scales, such as days, weeks, and months, making effective visualization of time-based data challenging. Here we propose a new approach for providing focus and context in time-based charts to enable interpretation of patterns across time scales. Our approach employs a focus zone with a time and a second axis, that can either represent quantities or categories, as well as a set of adjacent periphery plots that can aggregate data along the time, value, or both dimensions. We present a framework for periphery plots and describe two use cases that demonstrate the utility of our approach., Comment: To Appear in IEEE VIS 2019 Short Papers. Open source software and other materials available on github: https://github.com/PrecisionVISSTA/PeripheryPlots Video figure available on Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/349678146

Temporal event data are collected across a broad range of domains, and a variety of visual analytics techniques have been developed to empower analysts working with this form of data. These techniques generally display aggregate statistics computed over sets of event sequences that share common patterns. Such techniques are often hindered, however, by the high-dimensionality of many real-world event sequence datasets because the large number of distinct event types within such data prevents effective aggregation. A common coping strategy for this challenge is to group event types together as a pre-process, prior to visualization, so that each group can be represented within an analysis as a single event type. However, computing these event groupings as a pre-process also places significant constraints on the analysis. This paper presents a dynamic hierarchical aggregation technique that leverages a predefined hierarchy of dimensions to computationally quantify the informativeness of alternative levels of grouping within the hierarchy at runtime. This allows users to dynamically explore the hierarchy to select the most appropriate level of grouping to use at any individual step within an analysis. Key contributions include an algorithm for interactively determining the most informative set of event groupings from within a large-scale hierarchy of event types, and a scatter-plus-focus visualization that supports interactive hierarchical exploration. While these contributions are generalizable to other types of problems, we apply them to high-dimensional event sequence analysis using large-scale event type hierarchies from the medical domain. We describe their use within a medical cohort analysis tool called Cadence, demonstrate an example in which the proposed technique supports better views of event sequence data, and report findings from domain expert interviews., Comment: To Appear in IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (TVCG), Volume 26 Issue 1, 2020. Also part of proceedings for IEEE VAST 2019

The collection of large, complex datasets has become common across a wide variety of domains. Visual analytics tools increasingly play a key role in exploring and answering complex questions about these large datasets. However, many visualizations are not designed to concurrently visualize the large number of dimensions present in complex datasets (e.g. tens of thousands of distinct codes in an electronic health record system). This fact, combined with the ability of many visual analytics systems to enable rapid, ad-hoc specification of groups, or cohorts, of individuals based on a small subset of visualized dimensions, leads to the possibility of introducing selection bias--when the user creates a cohort based on a specified set of dimensions, differences across many other unseen dimensions may also be introduced. These unintended side effects may result in the cohort no longer being representative of the larger population intended to be studied, which can negatively affect the validity of subsequent analyses. We present techniques for selection bias tracking and visualization that can be incorporated into high-dimensional exploratory visual analytics systems, with a focus on medical data with existing data hierarchies. These techniques include: (1) tree-based cohort provenance and visualization, with a user-specified baseline cohort that all other cohorts are compared against, and visual encoding of the drift for each cohort, which indicates where selection bias may have occurred, and (2) a set of visualizations, including a novel icicle-plot based visualization, to compare in detail the per-dimension differences between the baseline and a user-specified focus cohort. These techniques are integrated into a medical temporal event sequence visual analytics tool. We present example use cases and report findings from domain expert user interviews., Comment: IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (TVCG), Volume 26 Issue 1, 2020. Also part of proceedings for IEEE VAST 2019

Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) are widely used to assist with medical decision making. However, CDSS typically require manually curated rules and other data which are difficult to maintain and keep up-to-date. Recent systems leverage advanced deep learning techniques and electronic health records (EHR) to provide more timely and precise results. Many of these techniques have been developed with a common focus on predicting upcoming medical events. However, while the prediction results from these approaches are promising, their value is limited by their lack of interpretability. To address this challenge, we introduce CarePre, an intelligent clinical decision assistance system. The system extends a state-of-the-art deep learning model to predict upcoming diagnosis events for a focal patient based on his/her historical medical records. The system includes an interactive framework together with intuitive visualizations designed to support the diagnosis, treatment outcome analysis, and the interpretation of the analysis results. We demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of CarePre system by reporting results from a quantities evaluation of the prediction algorithm and a case study and three interviews with senior physicians.

Data visualizations typically show retrospective views of an existing dataset with little or no focus on repeatability. However, consumers of these tools often use insights gleaned from retrospective visualizations as the basis for decisions about future events. In this way, visualizations often serve as visual predictive models despite the fact that they are typically designed to present historical views of the data. This "visual predictive model" approach, however, can lead to invalid inferences. In this paper, we describe an approach to visual model validation called Inline Replication (IR) which, similar to the cross-validation technique used widely in machine learning, provides a nonparametric and broadly applicable technique for visual model assessment and repeatability. This paper describes the overall IR process and outlines how it can be integrated into both traditional and emerging "big data" visualization pipelines. Examples are provided showing IR integrated within common visualization techniques (such as bar charts and linear regression lines) as well as a more fully-featured visualization system designed for complex exploratory analysis tasks., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures