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Effective policies for adaptation to climate change require understanding how impacts are related to exposures and vulnerability, the dimensions of the climate system that will change most and where human impacts will be most draconian, and the institutions best suited to respond. Here, we propose a simple method for more credibly pairing empirical statistical damage estimates derived from recent weather and outcome observations with projected future climate changes and proposed responses. We first analyze agricultural production and loan repayment data from Brazil to understand vulnerability to historical variation in the more predictable components of temperature and rainfall (trend and seasonality) as well as to shocks (both local and over larger spatial scales). This decomposed weather variation over the past two decades explains over 50% of the yield variation in major Brazilian crops and, critically, can be constructed in the same way for future climate projections. Combining our estimates with bias-corrected downscaled climate simulations for Brazil, we find increased variation in yields and revenues (including more bad years and worse outcomes) and higher agricultural loan default at midcentury. Results in this context point to two particularly acute dimensions of vulnerability: Intensified seasonality and local idiosyncratic shocks both contribute to worsening outcomes, along with a reduced capacity for spatially correlated (covariate) shocks to ameliorate these effects through prices. These findings suggest that resilience strategies should focus on institutions such as water storage, financial services, and reinsurance.

This study investigates the framing effect on the willingness to pay (WTP) for the consumption of organic foods, particularly organic tomatoes. In addition, we evaluated how other variables, such as the respondent's socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their organic consumption pattern and their perceptions about organic foods, impacted the WTP for organic tomatoes. Results are based on data from an online survey applied to 434 consumers and on estimates of regression models for the expected WTP with and without control for the selection of people willing to pay a price premium for organic tomatoes. Two framing effects are tested – one with positive information about organic tomatoes and a second with negative information about a conventional product. While both types of framing had significant effects, negative framing played a more important role in the willingness to pay for organic tomatoes. Results also highlighted how other variables, such as income, positive perception about organic products and production, and environmental and health concerns, impacted the WTP for organic tomatoes.

We use a combination of economic and wellbeing metrics to evaluate the impacts of a climate resilience program designed for family farmers in the semiarid region of Brazil. Most family farmers in the region are on the verge of income and food insufficiency, both of which are exacerbated in prolonged periods of droughts. The program assisted farmers in their milk and sheepmeat production, implementing a set of climate-smart production practices and locally-adapted technologies. We find that the program under evaluation had substantive and significant impacts on production practices, land management, and quality of life in general, using several different quasi-experimental strategies to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated farmers. We highlight the strengths and limitations of each evaluation strategy and how the set of analyses and outcome indicators complement each other. The evaluation provides valuable insights into the economic and environmental sustainability of family farming in semiarid regions, which are under growing pressure from climate change and environmental degradation worldwide.

Resumo A Política Nacional de Mobilidade Urbana motiva os municípios brasileiros a desenvolver uma série de ações a favor dos transportes públicos coletivos e não motorizados, mas ainda são escassos os casos bem-sucedidos de promoção de transporte urbano sustentável no Brasil. Este artigo analisa a experiência de Campinas na promoção do transporte cicloviário, que é comparada com um caso de sucesso no mundo, Groningen (Holanda). As análises baseiam-se em entrevistas realizadas com gestores públicos e especialistas nas duas cidades em estudo. Os resultados mostram fatores institucionais essenciais para o sucesso ou fracasso da política de mobilidade cicloviária. Destaca-se, particularmente, que ações de desestímulo ao uso do veículo privado são tão importantes quanto as de promoção do uso de bicicletas.

Este artigo objetiva apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa sobre a apropriação da renda agrícola total por famílias de perfis distintos (empregadoras, por conta própria, assalariadas), com pelo menos um membro ocupado em atividades agrícolas, no Brasil, nos anos 2000. Investigou-se a variação na participação de cada tipo familiar no total da renda agrícola, e analisou-se a decomposição dos efeitos responsáveis por essa variação. Os resultados apontam a evidente mudança de perfil das famílias agrícolas brasileiras e a transição para o assalariamento. Mostram também que, no interior da agricultura familiar, os grupos familiares de não proprietários são os que obtiveram o pior desempenho na distribuição e variação da apropriação relativa da renda agrícola global.

Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate the relation between governance and financial efficiency of credit unions in Brazil. The study shows how poor financial efficiency in credit unions may result from undesirable configurations in executive management and other variables related to governance. Design/methodology/approach – The study develops an innovative methodology to classify credit unions according to the level of governance using indicators of representativeness and participation, leadership, management and supervision. This methodology integrates the use of multiple correspondence and cluster analysis. The study then applies stochastic frontier models to analyze how governance affects the indicators of financial efficiency. Findings – The results highlight that better governance substantially increases the efficiency of credit unions in terms of a higher level of credit operations per institution. Originality/value – The paper uses a pioneering survey applied by the Central Bank to almost the total population of credit unions in Brazil. The results highlight how to operationalize a subjective and broad concept related to cooperative governance to identify the remarkable impacts of good governance practices on the financial efficiency of credit unions.

Abstract This paper analyzes the employment and income dynamics of rural families in Brazil's North Region, the main representative of the Brazilian Amazon. We use information from the National Household Sample Survey between 2004 and 2015 to create a typology of families based on the members' occupation in agricultural and non-agricultural activities. We hypothesize that the recent increase in employment and income was strongly associated with non-agricultural activities, reproducing the dynamics observed in other developing countries and Brazil's more developed regions. The results highlight that, differently from the rural exodus observed in the other regions of the country, the number of rural households increased in the North Region, attracted by the expanding non-agricultural occupations. As a result, the importance of earnings from non-agricultural activities and non-labor (pensions, cash transfers, among others) to family income has increased considerably, especially among self-employed family farmers. The final discussion highlights the relevance of non-agricultural activities for public policies to increase income in less developed rural areas.

This study investigates the framing effect on the willingness to pay (WTP) for the consumption of organic foods, particularly organic tomatoes. In addition, we evaluated how other variables, such as the respondent's socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their organic consumption pattern and their perceptions about organic foods, impacted the WTP for organic tomatoes. Results are based on data from an online survey applied to 434 consumers and on estimates of regression models for the expected WTP with and without control for the selection of people willing to pay a price premium for organic tomatoes. Two framing effects are tested - one with positive information about organic tomatoes and a second with negative information about a conventional product. While both types of framing had significant effects, negative framing played a more important role in the willingness to pay for organic tomatoes. Results also highlighted how other variables, such as income, positive perception about organic products and production, and environmental and health concerns, impacted the WTP for organic tomatoes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dinâmica migratória é, no mais das vezes, resultado de um processo de mobilidade geográfica da força de trabalho em busca de inserção ocupacional em outras regiões. Esse processo se dá, segundo a maioria dos achados na literatura econômica internacional e nacional, a partir de um processo de seleção positiva migratória no qual parte da força de trabalho deixa sua região natural em busca de outras oportunidades de inserção socioeconômica em outras regiões. Assim sendo, aqueles mais ambiciosos, persistentes, corajosos, deixam as regiões de residência para buscar melhores oportunidades profissionais em outras regiões. Ou seja, são positivamente selecionados. Nesses aspectos, este artigo visa analisar se há seleção positiva migratória intermunicipal norte-rio-grandense. Os dados são dos Censos Demográficos do Brasil referentes aos anos de 2000 e de 2010. Metodologicamente, revisa-se a literatura, e, em seguida, recorre-se ao modelo de Heckman (1979) em dois estágios, bem como a decomposição proposta por Cutillo e Ceccarelli (2012). Os resultados confirmam a hipótese de que o migrante intermunicipal do Rio Grande do Norte é positivamente selecionado e a decomposição mostra que são as características não observáveis, em sua maioria, que corroboram maiores rendimentos do trabalho em favor dos migrantes.

We analyze the trade-offs between health and the economy during the period of social distancing in São Paulo, the state hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We use longitudinal data with municipal-level information and check the robustness of our estimates to several sources of bias, including spatial dependence, reverse causality, and time-variant omitted variables. We use exogenous climate shocks as instruments for social distancing since people are more likely to stay home in wetter and colder periods. Our findings suggest that the health benefits of social distancing differ by levels of municipal development and may have vanished if the COVID-19 spread was not controlled in neighboring municipalities. In turn, we did not find evidence that municipalities with tougher social distancing performed worse economically. Our results also highlight that estimates that do not account for endogeneity may largely underestimate the benefits of social distancing on reducing the spread of COVID-19.

We use a combination of economic and wellbeing metrics to evaluate the impacts of a climate resilience program designed for family farmers in the semiarid region of Brazil. Most family farmers in the region are on the verge of income and food insufficiency, both of which are exacerbated in prolonged periods of droughts. The program assisted farmers in their milk and sheepmeat production, implementing a set of climate-smart production practices and locally-adapted technologies. We find that the program under evaluation had substantive and significant impacts on production practices, land management, and quality of life in general, using several different quasi-experimental strategies to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated farmers. We highlight the strengths and limitations of each evaluation strategy and how the set of analyses and outcome indicators complement each other. The evaluation provides valuable insights into the economic and environmental sustainability of family farming in semiarid regions, which are under growing pressure from climate change and environmental degradation worldwide.

Abstract We analyze the main reasons for the transport mode choice (private vehicle, public transportation, bicycle, walking, and others) among university students in Campinas. Analyses are based on primary data collected from 1,179 students through online and personal interviews in the second semester of 2014. Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Cluster Analysis are jointly used to identify common choice groups. Public transport prevails among low-income users, and the main motive for their choice is the lack of alternatives. Students who can afford higher costs tend to prefer a private vehicle, which is seen as being safer and more comfortable. In turn, the adoption of an active mode of transport remains mainly restricted to a small group of users with positive attitudes towards health and the environment. The study finally discusses the implications of structural constraints, such as infra-structure and public safety, on public policies aimed at a sustainable urban transport system.

The occupational achievements of people with disabilities and those with less severe functional limitations are analyzed before and after the implementation of employment quotas. The differentials are decomposed into (i) productive or socioeconomic factors; and (ii) unobservable factors such as discrimination and other social constraints. The unobservable difficulties, which play an important role in determining differences in employment rates, reduced substantially, especially for people with more severe limitations. However, while these workers continue to obtain low paid jobs, those most qualified with less severe limitations attained better occupational positions, and hence, higher wages.

Purpose - The Sertão, located in the Northeastern region of Brazil, is the most populous semi-arid region in the world. The region also faces the highest rates of poverty, food insecurity and climate risks in this country. Basic economic activities, such as extensive livestock and dairy farming, tend to be mainly affected by the increasing temperatures and recurrent droughts taking place in the past decades. This paper aims to analyze farmers’ responses to climatic variability in the Sertão Design/methodology/approach - Analyses are based on farm-level data of the Agricultural Census 2006 and on historical climate data gathered by meteorological stations. The climate impacts and the effectiveness of adaptive strategies are compared between three groups of farms, which discriminate different levels of social and environmental vulnerability. Four production functions are modeled (milk, cattle, goat and sheep) accounting for sample selectivity bias. Findings - In response to increasing temperatures, farmers tend to shift their activities mainly to cattle and dairy farming. But the overall productivity tends to reduce with the recurrence of droughts. Decreasing precipitation affects mainly the production of milk of smallholder family farmers and the cattle herd of non-family farmers. Research limitations/implications - Analyses do not account for short- and medium-run productive impacts of extreme droughts, which usually have devastating socioeconomic effects in the region. Originality/value - Smallholder family farmers are the most vulnerable group who deserve more social and technical intervention, as they lack basic social and technological resources that can greatly improve their productivities and overcome the impacts of decreasing precipitation.

In recent years, Brazil has seen an increase in formal employment, the raising of the minimum wage, a recovery in the purchasing power of the average wage, a drop in open unemployment and curbs on unprotected subcontracting. Average household incomes have risen and poverty has declined. How was this achieved? This paper argues that a minimum wage revaluation policy, broader social security coverage, income transfers and improved wage bargaining have all contributed to a reduction in inequality. The shift in labour market indicators is, they believe, conditioned by Brazil’s economic dynamics, public policy on the raising of incomes, and a legal and institutional framework in which the public institutions and the trade unions play a prominent role. The authors advocate the creation of a development model that distributes income and dignifies citizens.

O presente estudo apresenta a aplicação do método de imputação residual na valoração econômica ambiental da água mineral, tomando como base os dados contábeis divulgados por uma empresa do ramo entre os anos de 2011 e 2012. Apesar de ser realizado em termos ex-post, a aplicação do método demonstra a importância e o impacto que haveria nos resultados da empresa caso ela arcasse com o pagamento pela exploração desse recurso ambiental. Inicialmente, apresenta-se uma breve consideração sobre a valoração ambiental e seus principais métodos, enfatizando o método usado no estudo: imputação residual. Posteriormente, são apresentados os dados contábeis da empresa e realiza-se o cálculo do valor econômico ambiental da água mineral. Conclui-se que a empresa apresenta altas margens de retorno e que, mesmo pagando pelo uso do recurso ambiental, ainda apresentaria altos resultados financeiros.

ABSTRACT In this study, we analyze the relationship between the development of occupational structure and income inequality in Brazil and the U.S. While both Brazil and the U.S. face high levels of inequality, low socioeconomic development in Brazil notably reduces the proportion of total income that accrues in the bottom two quintiles of the income distribution. In the U.S., inequality is mostly due to unobserved differences within occupations and has grown in large part because of higher earnings among high-skilled workers. Our results highlight that the effects of occupational structure are generally more pronounced at lower levels of economic development. At the higher level of economic development found in the U.S., inequality appears to increase largely due to rising inequality among high-skilled employees, which may be a function of unobserved organizational variables such as firm productivity and market advantage.

O acesso à saúde é uma importante dimensão das desigualdades entre áreas urbanas e rurais. O acesso é menor nas áreas rurais em função da maior vulnerabilidade social de sua população e das maiores dificuldades de acesso que seus grupos sociais estão submetidos. A partir de dados do suplemento de saúde da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, foram analisados os determinantes do acesso e das diferenças entre áreas urbanas e rurais nos anos de 1998 a 2008. A análise dos determinantes do acesso aos serviços de saúde foi realizada pelo modelo de regressão logística binária. As diferenças entre áreas urbanas e rurais foram decompostas em fatores observáveis (fatores de capacitação, necessidade e predisposição) e não observáveis (oferta e dificuldade de acesso). Os resultados destacam que a desigualdade de acesso é elevada e maior nas áreas rurais. Os fatores de necessidade são determinantes fundamentais do acesso à saúde, enquanto que os fatores de capacitação são mais importantes para explicar as diferenças entre as áreas urbanas e rurais. A tênue redução das diferenças no período se deveu fundamentalmente a mudanças na composição da população rural.

ABSTRACTThis paper explores how occupational structure is associated with economic inequality in Brazil in comparison to the United States. Changes in the Brazilian and American occupational structures between 1983 and 2011 are investigated in order to assess how closely they generate high socioeconomic inequalities. The effects of education, age, gender and race on occupational attainment are taken into account. Highlights of the results include: (1) a higher level of socioeconomic development in the American occupational structure, reflecting huge socioeconomic differences between these countries; (2) a tenuous convergence between the Brazilian and American occupational structures; (3) a significant decrease in the net impacts of education, age, gender and race on occupational attainment (i.e., reduced social stratification) in both countries. These results suggest the analytical worth of considering occupational structure as a significant intermediate variable affecting the level of socioeconomic inequality within a country over time, as well as between two countries at a given point in time.

Este trabalho analisa a inserção no mercado de trabalho brasileiro das pessoas com deficiência, com base nos resultados do Censo Demográfico 2010. O estudo apresenta uma classificação para o contingente de pessoas com deficiência (PcD) e pessoas com limitações funcionais (PcLF), no sentido de apurar com mais precisão a dinâmica populacional e de inserção no trabalho de um contingente de pessoas com níveis maiores de limitação física, sensorial ou cognitiva (PcD), separando-o do conjunto de indivíduos com impedimentos "mais leves" (PcLF). Outros objetivos específicos deste trabalho são: comparar os diferenciais de renda e de inserção ocupacional dessas populações; e decompor os determinantes das diferenças de rendimentos em uma parcela devida às características socioeconômica e de inserção ocupacional e em outra devida a fatores não observáveis. Os resultados destacam como as PcD - ao enfrentarem condições mais adversas em termos de formação escolar e acesso ao trabalho, decorrentes, muitas vezes, das barreiras e obstáculos ainda existentes na sociedade - apresentam desvantagens em termos da dinâmica socioeconômica e de inserção ocupacional em relação tanto à população sem qualquer tipo de deficiência ou limitação funcional, como ao segmento populacional com limitações mais leves (PcLF). Ao final, discutem-se políticas e ações que poderiam incrementar e aprimorar as condições de participação das pessoas com deficiência no mercado de trabalho brasileiro.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between economic growth and labor market dynamics in Brazil between 1981 and 2009, making a comparison with the United States. Among the findings, one can mention that economic growth in Brazil has been related to a massive incorporation of labor force in labor intensive activities, whereas, in the United States, to a substantial improvement of labor productivity in high-technology activities. Despite the favorable economic context in the 2000s, huge inequalities between these countries have widened since the structure of the Brazilian labor market remained with few or no changes.

Os produtores rurais, de forma geral, administram suas propriedades contando com a própria experiência. As causas desse quadro abrangem aspectos relativos a características do produtor, preferências em relação aos diferentes instrumentos de gestão disponíveis, além de questões comportamentais. Na pesquisa aqui relatada teve-se o objetivo de verificar a existência de excesso de confiança em um grupo de cafeicultores com relação aos preços de venda e, além disso, caracterizar o grupo com tal atributo. A partir de entrevistas com 244 cafeicultores, os resultados apontaram para a existência de um grupo de 95 produtores (38,9% da amostra) com excesso de confiança quando computada a variância histórica a partir dos preços de safra e entressafra. Quando utilizados apenas os meses de safra, o excesso de confiança foi encontrado para um grupo de 116 cafeicultores (47,5% da amostra). Utilizando análise fatorial e método de cluster, observou-se que agentes que avaliam o mercado de café como não arriscado, que possuem alta propensão ao risco e baixo nível de conhecimento de derivativos tendem a ter excesso de confiança em preços.

Em um contexto de profundas transformações na economia e no mercado de trabalho, o objetivo deste trabalho é analisar as relações entre a dinâmica da estrutura de ocupações e da distribuição de rendimentos no Brasil nos anos 2000. Primeiramente, verifica-se em que medida a prevalência de ocupações pouco qualificadas e de baixa remuneração contribui para o elevado estágio de exclusão e desigualdade do país. Verifica-se ainda como as mudanças na composição e nos rendimentos dos principais grupos ocupacionais contribuíram para o crescimento da renda e a redução da desigualdade no Brasil. Os resultados destacam a importância da estrutura ocupacional para compreensão das extremas diferenças socioeconômicas existentes no país.

Este trabalho avalia o impacto econômico da reserva legal sobre a margem bruta de diferentes tipos de unidade de produção agropecuária (UPA) da Microbacia do Rio Oriçanga - São Paulo. A partir de uma tipologia das UPAs elaborada para a região, escolheram-se dois tipos para detalhamento do estudo: os pequenos produtores de baixa tecnologia e os citricultores. A modelagem de suas estruturas produtivas foi realizada por meio do método de programação recursiva, abarcando o período de 2002/03 a 2008/09. Os sistemas atuais dos dois tipos de UPAs foram confrontados com dois cenários de compensação do déficit de reserva legal, através da realocação de áreas produtivas no interior da própria unidade: I) procedendo-se à recuperação da vegetação natural nestas áreas por meio do plantio de espécies nativas, com vistas ao manejo sustentável para exploração de madeira; II) deixando que aí se desse o crescimento da vegetação espontânea, sem nenhum tipo de manejo ou exploração. Os resultados evidenciam a importância de políticas que permitam uma distribuição mais equitativa dos custos da conservação ambiental entre toda a sociedade, bem como a importância de ajustes locacionais das reservas legais, na busca de um melhor equilíbrio entre a conservação da biodiversidade e o custo de oportunidade das terras.

Este trabalho analisa a distribuição de grupos sócio-ocupacionais do mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Para cumprir com o objetivo proposto, apresenta alguns dos principais elementos do processo de formação das estruturas sociais modernas e analisa a composição dos grupos sócio-ocupacionais identificados em relação a uma série de características socioeconômicas. O pressuposto dessas análises é que a combinação entre a inserção ocupacional e o rendimento dos indivíduos cumpre um papel fundamental na definição dos complexos padrões sociais brasileiros. De maneira geral, a estrutura sócio-ocupacional proposta permite destacar o elevado grau de desigualdade e o baixo padrão sócio-ocupacional brasileiro, além de discriminar consistentemente importantes grupos socioeconômicos da população.This paper analyzes the distribution of socio-occupational groups in the Brazilian labor market. In order to reach such purpose, this paper introduces some key elements of the process of formation of the modern social structure and analyzes the composition of such socio-occupational groups in relation to a series of socioeconomic characteristics. The hypothesis of these analyses is that the combination of occupational position and individual income plays an important role defining the complexity of the Brazilian social patterns. Overall, the proposed class structure allows to stress the high level inequality and the low socio-occupational patterns in Brazil, as well to discriminate consistently important socioeconomic groups in the population.