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Scientific advisory bodies provide scientific advice for sustainable fisheries management based on the precautionary approach and maximum sustainable yield (MSY) reference points, such as spawning stock biomass (SSB) value B, and fishing mortality giving MSY, F. The lack of a stock-recruitment function (SRF) to identify a clear breakpoint B has recently emerged in important stock collapses. It also precludes the use of equilibrium-based methods to analyze the sustainability of F. Considering a hockey stick (HS) SRF, we propose here an equilibrium-based method that characterizes the equilibriums, their stability properties, transient dynamics, and changes in productivity (including age-specific natural mortality rates). We show that these relevant factors, not taken into account in standard methods, should play a central role in fisheries management and conservation. Considering the Northern cod stock (NCS) (Gadus morhua) by way of illustration, we properly estimate the HS and its associated B. We find that the HS fitted by the Fisheries Library in R underestimates B. Additionally, we determine the levels of productivity (medium-low or medium-high), and their corresponding growth rates of the SSB, which are consistent with the observed population dynamics. We find that the NCS was managed during the 1980s under myopic (unsustainable) harvest control rules, neglecting high age-specific natural mortality rates. We also find that recovery of the NCS remains a distant prospect, despite the current stable, positive equilibrium (sustainable F).

A stratified random bottom trawl survey on Flemish Cap was carried out from 6 July to 18 August 2022. Following the same procedures as in previous years, the area surveyed extends up to depths of 800 fathoms (1460 meters) and 181 fishing stations were planned. The survey was carried out by the R/V Vizconde de Eza with the usual survey gear (Lofoten). A total of 182 valid hauls were made, 121 up to 730 meters depth and 61 up to 1460 meters. Survey results are presented, including abundance indices of the main commercial species and age distributions for cod, redfish, American plaice, Greenland halibut, roughhead grenadier, squid and shrimp. The general indexes for this year are estimated taken into account the traditional swept area (strata 1-19, up to depths of 730 m.) and the total area surveyed (strata 1-34, up to depths of 1460 m.)

Report of the Scientific Council meeting held by WebEx from 20 to 24 September 2021

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M was conducted using a Bayesian SCAA (statistical catch-at-age) model. The STACFIS catch estimates and the Flemish Cap survey indices were used to fit the model. Blim, defined as the SSB of 2007, was estimated at 15 037 t (median). Results indicate a general increase in SSB since 2005 to the highest value in 2017, decreasing since then. SSB has been above Blim since 2008. Between 2013 and 2018 recruitment was at very low levels; the 2016 and 2018 values were among the lowest of the series; as a consequence, 3-year projections indicate that total biomass will decrease during the projected years, while the SSB could increase under some scenarios in the final projected year. The probability of SSB being below Blim is low high (<10%) in all the scenarios. An increase in recruitment occurred since 2019, reaching in 2021 the 2014 level.

Report of the Scientific Council Meeting held in Halifax from 3 to 16 June 2022

A stratified random bottom trawl survey on Flemish Cap was carried out from 12 July to 9 August 2021. Following the same procedures as in previous years, the area surveyed extends up to depths of 800 fathoms (1460 meters) and 181 fishing stations were planned. The survey was carried out by the R/V Vizconde de Eza with the usual survey gear (Lofoten). A total of 181 valid hauls were made, 120 up to 730 meters depth and 61 up to 1460 meters. Survey results are presented, including abundance indices of the main commercial species and age distributions for cod, redfish, American plaice, Greenland halibut, roughhead grenadier, squid and shrimp. The general indexes for this year are estimated taken into account the traditional swept area (strata 1-19, up to depths of 730 m.) and the total area surveyed (strata 1-34, up to depths of 1460 m.).

In 2009, the Fisheries Commission established several coral and sponges protection closures areas to bottom fisheries within the NAFO Regulatory Area that started to be applied in 2010. Three random bottom trawl surveys are performed by the EU yearly in the NAFO Regulatory Area: Spanish Div. 3NO (Spring), Spanish and Portuguese in Div. 3M (Summer) and Spanish Div. 3L (Summer). The surveys are currently carried out by the R/V Vizconde de Eza and covers the closed areas. A study of the survey indices of the species assessed in NAFO (except shrimp) have been performed to know the impact of removing the hauls in the closed areas from the survey. The results of the analysis show that there are two species, Greenland halibut and roughhead grenadier, in which their biomass and/or age/length indices are affected in all the surveys analyzed. This is due to the fact that these two species are distributed at greater depths and that the closed areas are mainly found in deep areas, so the suppression of survey hauls in closed areas has a greater impact on the indices of these two species. The best way to know the impact in the assessment results of these changes in the Greenland halibut and roughhead grenadier indices would be to run the assessment with both indices, the base case ones and the new case ones, and compare the results. There are other species in which their global biomass indices do not change very much, but their age or length indices change appreciably when hauls from closed areas are removed from the calculations. In one case, the results of the assessment are compromised and it would be better to rerun the assessment with the new case indices to see the differences. In other cases, although the length distribution is not directly used in the assessment models, some recruitment and spawning stock biomass indices are derived from them, so changes in the perception of the stock could be encountered. These changes in the age/length indices should be considered in f

Report of the NAFO/ICES Pandalus Assessment Group Meeting held by WebEx from 1 to 4 November 2021

The meeting was opened by the co-Chairs Fernando González-Costas (European Union) and Ray Walsh (Canada) at 09:30 hours (UTC/GMT -3 hours in Halifax, Nova Scotia) on Wednesday, 17 August 2022.

Scientific Council reviewed and finalized the working paper drafted by the Precautionary Approach Working Group (PA-WG). The final draft of this working paper, which will be presented to the Precautionary Approach workshop (15-16 August 2022) and WG-RBMS (17-19 August 2022), is attached to this report as Appendix II

Report of the NAFO Working Group on Improving Efficiency of NAFO Working Group Process (E-WG) Meeting held by WebEx 22 February 2022

Report of the Scientific Council (in conjunction with NIPAG) Meeting held by WebEx from 1 to 4 November 2021

Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea), redfish (Sebastes spp.), witch flounder (Glyptocephalus cynoglossus), roughhead grenadier (Macrourus berglax), thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata), white hake (Urophycis tenuis), squid (Illex illecebrosus) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) indices from the bottom trawl survey that Spain carries out in Spring since 1995 in Divisions 3NO of the NAFO Regulatory Area are presented. In 2020, the survey was not carried out due to the COVID pandemic situation. The presented indices are biomass by stratum, total length distribution and a and b parameters for the length-weight relationship; age distribution is also presented for Greenland halibut, Atlantic cod and American plaice.

Spanish catch and effort information used in this Report is based on the preliminary logbook data contributed by the Spanish Administration. The logbooks information for 2021 was available haul by haul. Total effort of the Spanish fleet in 2021 was 1,170 fishing days. Table 1 presents the preliminary Spanish catches by species and Division in 2021 in NAFO Regulatory Area. These catch figures are preliminary, the final catches to carry out the NAFO assessments will be agreed by the NAFO Joint Commission-Scientific Council Catch Estimation Strategy Advisory Group (CESAG).

Data review for 3LN redfish in preparation for an updated management strategy evaluation

The meeting was opened by the co-Chairs Fernando González-Costas and Steven Cadrin at 09:00 hours (Atlantic Daylight Time in Halifax, Nova Scotia) on Thursday, 19 May 2022.

[EN] In this study, a multispecies gadget model (GadCap) simulating the interactions among the Flemish Cap cod (Gadus morhua), redfish (Sebastes spp.), and shrimp (Pandalus borealis) has been incorporated as the operating model in a management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework (a4a-FLR) to test the performance of multiple combinations of harvest control rules (HCRs) for the three stocks when recruitment uncertainty and assessment error are accounted for. The results indicate that due to the strong trophic interactions, it is not possible to achieve the precautionary exploitation of all the stocks at the same time. Maintaining shrimp biomass above the limit reference point (B) would require unsustainable fishing pressure on cod and redfish to reduce predation mortality. In contrast, maintaining cod biomass above B would involve high predation on and high risk of collapse of the shrimp and redfish stocks. The implementation of alternative two-stage HCRs would reduce predation, resulting in higher productivity and lower probability of collapse for cod and redfish. The results of this study support the need of accounting for species interactions when designing management strategies for a group of interdependent commercial stocks. Copyright © 2023 Canadian Science Publishing, [FR] Un modèle multi-espèces Gadget (GadCap) qui simule les interactions de la morue (Gadus morhua), des sébastes (Sebastes spp.) et de la crevette nordique (Pandalus borealis) sur le bonnet Flamand a été intégré comme modèle d’exploitation dans un cadre (a4a-FLR) d’évaluation de stratégies de gestion (ESG) afin de valider la performance de différentes combinaisons de règles de contrôle des prises (RCP) pour les trois stocks quand l’incertitude reliée au recrutement et l’erreur d’évaluation sont prises en compte. Les résultats indiquent que, en raison des fortes interactions trophiques, l’atteinte de l’exploitation prudente simultanée de tous les stocks n’est pas possible. Le maintien d’une biomasse de crevette supérieure au point de référence limite (Blim) nécessiterait une pression de pêche à la morue et aux sébastes non durable pour réduire la mortalité par prédation. Le maintien de la biomasse de morue au-dessus du Blim nécessiterait quant à lui une forte prédation et un risque élevé d’effondrement des stocks de crevette et de sébastes. L’application de différentes RCP en deux volets réduirait la prédation, entraînant une productivité accrue et une plus faible probabilité d’effondrement de la morue et des sébastes. Les résultats de l’étude soulignent la nécessité de tenir compte des interactions d’espèces dans la conception de stratégies de gestion pour un groupe de stocks commerciaux interdépendants.

The pandemic caused by COVID19 led to the meeting being held by videoconference. Due to the practical constraints of conducting this meeting by videoconference, some items of the usual agenda were simplified, focusing mainly on the most urgent aspects related to the preparation of the Flemish Cap survey in 2021 and the NAFO Scientific Council meeting in June and September.

The meeting was opened by the co-Chairs Fernando González-Costas (European Union) and Ray Walsh (Canada) at 08:30 hours (Atlantic Daylight Time in Halifax, Nova Scotia) on Tuesday, 24 August 2021. The co-Chairs welcomed the representatives from Canada, European Union, Japan, Norway, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The Scientific Council (SC) Chair, SC Precautionary Approach Working Group (PA-WG) co-Chairs were also welcomed (Annex 1).

The Precautionary Approach Working Group (PA-WG) developed recommendations for designing a Precautionary Approach Framework that is expected to meet the objectives of the NAFO Convention. The objectives and general principles of the NAFO Convention can be achieved by a Precautionary Approach Framework in addition to other NAFO processes to minimize bycatch, catch by lost/abandoned gear, pollution and waste from fishing. The PA-WG recommends that the Precautionary Approach Framework should: 1) promote rebuilding of depleted stocks toward the stock biomass associated with maximum sustainable yield (BMSY), 2) account for scientific uncertainty through buffer reference points or other risk-based approaches, 3) develop limit reference points for stock biomass (Blim) and fishing mortality (Flim) that are consistent with each other, 4) Blim should be based on sustainability and reduced productivity where possible, and 5) reference points should be re-evaluated when the available information on productivity substantially changes, there is evidence of a productivity regime shift, or management procedures based on re-evaluated reference points are demonstrated to perform better for meeting NAFO’s objectives. All options considered for a revised Precautionary Approach Framework should be simulation tested to determine if management measures set in accordance with the framework are expected to achieve the following objectives: a very low risk of stock depletion (i.e., B

The NAFO Joint Commission-Scientific Council Catch Estimation Strategy Advisory Group (CESAG) met via WebEx on 13 April 2021. The meeting was opened at 9:30 hours (Atlantic Daylight Time) by co-Chairs Katherine Sosebee (USA) and Temur Tairov (Russian Federation). Representatives from NAFO Contracting Parties (Canada, European Union, Japan, Ukraine) were in attendance. The Scientific Council Chair was also in attendance (Annex 1).

Spanish catch and effort information used in this Report is based on the preliminary logbook data contributed by the Spanish Administration. The logbooks information for 2020 was available haul by haul. Table 1 presents the preliminary Spanish catches by species and Division in 2020 in NAFO Regulatory Area. Total effort of the Spanish fleet in 2020 was 1,200 fishing days. In 2020, IEO scientific observers were on board 31 fishing days that it means 3 % of the Spanish total effort. All length, age and biological information presented in this paper is based on sampling carried out by IEO scientific observers. In 2020, 37 samples were taken with 4816 individuals of different species examined (Table 2).

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M was conducted using a Bayesian SCAA (statistical catch-at-age) model. The STACFIS catch estimates and the Flemish Cap survey indices were used to fit the model. Blim, defined as the SSB of 2007, was estimated at 15 408 t (median). Results indicate a general increase in SSB since 2005 to the highest value in 2017, decreasing sharply since then. SSB has been above Blim since 2008. Between 2013 and 2018 recruitment was at very low levels; the 2016 and 2018 values were among the lowest of the series; as a consequence, 3-year projections indicate that total biomass will decrease during the projected years, while the SSB could increase under some scenarios in the final projected year. Depending on the projected scenario, probability of SSB being below Blim in 2023 and 2024 is high (≥12%) or very low (≤5%). An increase in recruitment occurred in 2019 and 2020, reaching the 2008 level.

Analyses of the haul by haul data from 2016 to 2020, as well as samples from observers on board, from the directed and no-directed fishery catching 3M cod, were conducted in order to consider whether measures, such as depth restrictions, spatial and mesh changes, could reduce the catch of juvenile and immature cod across all fisheries in 3M. The recent bycatch of 3M cod in other fisheries is considered low when compared to the directed cod fishery. Therefore, at this time, the implementation of measures to avoid juvenile cod bycatch would be premature, given that the burden of implementing and enforcing these measures on multiple fisheries may outweigh its potential benefits. With respect to the directed 3M cod fishery, and considering that new measures have been just implemented, it is prudent to analyze the effectiveness of these measures to protect juveniles before considering which additional and/or different technical measures may be required to further reduce juvenile cod catches, if needed.

In 2017 the Commission approved the Action Plan for the Management and Minimization of by-catch and discards. The Action Plan cited the NAFO Secretariat to conduct the annual mapping of by-catch in NAFO from 2016 onwards using HbH data. The Secretariat presented the results of by-catch analysis of the haul by haul reports of 2016-2019. This analysis was carried out based on the interactions of directed fisheries (non-moratorium stocks) – by-catch stock (moratorium stock). The present document presents an analysis based on the moratoria species/stocks. For each of the species/stocks in moratorium, the main fisheries that catch it as by-catch are identified and analyzed to observe if there are temporal/spatial patterns of the by-catch of stocks in moratorium. These two analyses: moratorium species/fishery, together with the analysis carried out by the Secretariat, fishery/moratorium species, are complementary and will allow a better response to the Action Plan task 3.2: "Areas where there is a risk of causing serious harm to by-catch species. Identify areas, times and fisheries where bycatch and discards, notably of moratoria species, that have a higher rate of occurrence”. One of the objectives of this document is to search, for the different stocks in moratorium, spatio-temporal patterns of the by-catches carried out by the different fisheries. The seasonal/space catch analysis based on the HbH data will be restricted to: American plaice Div. 3M, American plaice Div. 3LNO and cod Div. 3NO, since they are the stocks in moratorium that have some level of catches and are not mainly distributed within national waters. The conclusions on the last two stocks are partial since the data analyzed only cover part of their distribution (NRA). The general conclusion of this analysis is that there are no remarkable spatial differences between the hauls with and without by-catch of the moratoria stocks of the different directed fisheries. It can be observed that the directed fish

A stratified random bottom trawl survey on Flemish Cap was carried out from 30 June to 29 July 2020. The area surveyed was extended up to depths of 800 fathoms (1460 meters) following the same procedures as in previous years and 181 fishing stations planned. The survey was carried out by the R/V Vizconde de Eza with the usual survey gear (Lofoten). A total of 181 valid hauls were made by the vessel R/V Vizconde de Eza, 120 up to 730 meters depth and 61 up to 1460 meters. Survey results including abundance indices of the main commercial species and age distributions for cod, redfish, American plaice, Greenland halibut, roughhead grenadier, squid and shrimp are presented. The general indexes for this year are estimated taken into account the traditional swept area (strata 1-19, up to depths of 730 m.) and the total area surveyed (strata 1-34, up to depths of 1460 m.).

Since 2003, a stratified random summer bottom trawl survey was conducted by Spain in the NAFO Regulatory Area of Division 3L (Flemish Pass). The surveys were carried out by the R/V “Vizconde de Eza” using bottom trawl net type Campelen 1800. Entire series of mean catches, biomass and length distribution for Greenland halibut, American plaice and witch flounder are presented for the period 2003-2019. Greenland halibut biomass and abundance estimates presented an increasing trend since 2011, reaching in 2017 the highest value of the entire time-series. In 2019, the biomass shows a slight increase. For American plaice biomass and abundance estimates show an increasing trend since 2010, reaching in 2015 the highest value in the series; since 2016, all indices decreased. Regarding witch flounder, the biomass and abundance show no a clear trend in the whole period, reaching the maximum of the series in 2010 and 2015. The 2019 biomass estimate continue the declining trend observed in 2016.