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The transition region between the Sun's corona and chromosphere is important to the mass and energy transfer from the lower atmosphere to the corona; consequently, this region has been studied intensely with ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet observations. A major result of these studies is that the amount of plasma at temperatures smaller than 100 000 K, is far too large to be compatible with the standard theory of thermal conductivity. However, it is not clear whether the disagreement lies with a problem in the observations or in the theory. We address this issue by analysing high-spatial and temporal resolution EUV observations from an X1.6-class flare taken with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and the Solar Dynamic Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). These data allow us to isolate the emission of flare loops from that of surrounding structures. We compare the Emission Measures (EMs) derived from the C II 1334.525Ang., Si IV 1402.770Ang transition region spectral lines, the Fe XXI 1354.066Ang flare line and the AIA 171Ang coronal images. We find that the EM ratios are incompatible with a standard conduction-dominated transition region model. Furthermore, the large increases in the EM magnitudes due to flare heating make it highly unlikely that the disagreement between data and theory is due to observational uncertainties in the source of the emission. We conclude that the standard Spitzer Harm thermal conductivity must be invalid for, at least, flare loops. We discuss the possibility that turbulent suppression of thermal conduction can account for our results., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, to appear in The Astrophysical Journal

The EU funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from Jan 2015 until Feb 2018. FLARECAST had a R2O focus, and introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different ML techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple ML algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic., Comment: 67 pages, 14 figures; submitted

We analyse the temporal evolution of the Differential Emission Measure (DEM) of solar active regions and explore its usage in solar flare prediction. The DEM maps are provided by the Gaussian Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (GAIA-DEM) archive, calculated assuming a Gaussian dependence of the DEM on the logarithmic temperature. We analyse time-series of sixteen solar active regions and a statistically significant sample of 9454 point-in-time observations corresponding to hundreds of regions observed during solar cycle 24. The time-series analysis shows that the temporal derivatives of the Emission Measure dEM/dt and the maximum DEM temperature dTmax/dt frequently exhibit high positive values a few hours before M- and X-class flares, indicating that flaring regions become brighter and hotter as the flare onset approaches. From the point-in-time observations we compute the conditional probabilities of flare occurrences using the distributions of positive values of the dEM/dt, and dTmax/dt and compare them with corresponding flaring probabilities of the total unsigned magnetic flux, a conventionally used, standard flare predictor. For C-class flares, conditional probabilities have lower or similar values with the ones derived for the unsigned magnetic flux, for 24 and 12 hours forecast windows. For M- and X-class flares, these probabilities are higher than those of the unsigned flux for higher parameter values. Shorter forecast windows improve the conditional probabilities of dEM/dt, and dTmax/dt in comparison to those of the unsigned magnetic flux. We conclude that flare forerunner events such as preflare heating or small flare activity prior to major flares reflect on the temporal evolution of EM and Tmax. Of these two, the temporal derivative of the EM could conceivably be used as a credible precursor, or short-term predictor, of an imminent flare., Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures

Solar Orbiter is the first space mission observing the solar plasma both in situ and remotely, from a close distance, in and out of the ecliptic. The ultimate goal is to understand how the Sun produces and controls the heliosphere, filling the Solar System and driving the planetary environments. With six remote-sensing and four in-situ instrument suites, the coordination and planning of the operations are essential to address the following four top-level science questions: (1) What drives the solar wind and where does the coronal magnetic field originate? (2) How do solar transients drive heliospheric variability? (3) How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere? (4) How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere? Maximising the mission's science return requires considering the characteristics of each orbit, including the relative position of the spacecraft to Earth (affecting downlink rates), trajectory events (such as gravitational assist manoeuvres), and the phase of the solar activity cycle. Furthermore, since each orbit's science telemetry will be downloaded over the course of the following orbit, science operations must be planned at mission level, rather than at the level of individual orbits. It is important to explore the way in which those science questions are translated into an actual plan of observations that fits into the mission, thus ensuring that no opportunities are missed. First, the overarching goals are broken down into specific, answerable questions along with the required observations and the so-called Science Activity Plan (SAP) is developed to achieve this. The SAP groups objectives that require similar observations into Solar Orbiter Observing Plans (SOOPs), resulting in a strategic, top-level view of the optimal opportunities for science observations during the mission lifetime., Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics

We study the evolution of a small-scale emerging flux region (EFR) in the quiet Sun, from its emergence to its decay. We track processes and phenomena across all atmospheric layers, explore their interrelations and compare our findings with recent numerical modelling studies. We used imaging, spectral and spectropolarimetric observations from space-borne and ground-based instruments. The EFR appears next to the chromospheric network and shows all characteristics predicted by numerical simulations. The total magnetic flux of the EFR exhibits distinct evolutionary phases, namely an initial subtle increase, a fast increase and expansion of the region area, a more gradual increase, and a slow decay. During the initial stages, bright points coalesce, forming clusters of positive- and negative-polarity in a largely bipolar configuration. During the fast expansion, flux tubes make their way to the chromosphere, producing pressure-driven absorption fronts, visible as blueshifted chromospheric features. The connectivity of the quiet-Sun network gradually changes and part of the existing network forms new connections with the EFR. A few minutes after the bipole has reached its maximum magnetic flux, it brightens in soft X-rays forming a coronal bright point, exhibiting episodic brightenings on top of a long smooth increase. These coronal brightenings are also associated with surge-like chromospheric features, which can be attributed to reconnection with adjacent small-scale magnetic fields and the ambient magnetic field. The emergence of magnetic flux even at the smallest scales can be the driver of a series of energetic phenomena visible at various atmospheric heights and temperature regimes. Multi-wavelength observations reveal a wealth of mechanisms which produce diverse observable effects during the different evolutionary stages of these small-scale structures., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics 14 pages, 14 figures

We model nanoflare heating of extrapolated active-region coronal loops via the acceleration of electrons and protons in Harris-type current sheets. The kinetic energy of the accelerated particles is estimated using semi-analytical and test-particle-tracing approaches. Vector magnetograms and photospheric Doppler velocity maps of NOAA active region 09114, recorded by the Imaging Vector Magnetograph (IVM), were used for this analysis. A current-free field extrapolation of the active-region corona was first constructed. The corresponding Poynting fluxes at the footpoints of 5000 extrapolated coronal loops were then calculated. Assuming that reconnecting current sheets develop along these loops, we utilized previous results to estimate the kinetic-energy gain of the accelerated particles and we related this energy to nanoflare heating and macroscopic loop characteristics. Kinetic energies of 0.1 to 8 keV (for electrons) and 0.3 to 470 keV (for protons) were found to cause heating rates ranging from $10^{-6}$ to 1 $\mathrm{erg\, s^{-1} cm^{-3}}$. Hydrodynamic simulations show that such heating rates can sustain plasma in coronal conditions inside the loops and generate plasma thermal distributions which are consistent with active region observations. We concluded the analysis by computing the form of X-ray spectra generated by the accelerated electrons using the thick target approach that were found to be in agreement with observed X-ray spectra, thus supporting the plausibility of our nanoflare-heating scenario., Comment: 11 figures

We study plasma flows along selected coronal loops in NOAA Active Region 10926, observed on 3 December 2006 with Hinode's EUV Imaging Spectrograph (EIS). From the shape of the loops traced on intensity images and the Doppler shifts measured along their length we compute their three-dimensional (3D) shape and plasma flow velocity using a simple geometrical model. This calculation was performed for loops visible in the Fe VIII 185 Ang., Fe X 184 Ang., Fe XII 195 Ang., Fe XIII 202 Ang., and Fe XV 284 Ang. spectral lines. In most cases the flow is unidirectional from one footpoint to the other but there are also cases of draining motions from the top of the loops to their footpoints. Our results indicate that the same loop may show different flow patterns when observed in different spectral lines, suggesting a dynamically complex rather than a monolithic structure. We have also carried out magnetic extrapolations in the linear force-free field approximation using SOHO/MDI magnetograms, aiming toward a first-order identification of extrapolated magnetic field lines corresponding to the reconstructed loops. In all cases, the best-fit extrapolated lines exhibit left-handed twist (alpha < 0), in agreement with the dominant twist of the region., Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures

We study the emergence of a toroidal flux tube into the solar atmosphere and its interaction with a pre-existing field of an active region. We investigate the emission of jets as a result of repeated reconnection events between colliding magnetic fields. We perform 3D simulations by solving the time-dependent, resistive MHD equations in a highly stratified atmosphere. A small active region field is constructed by the emergence of a toroidal magnetic flux tube. A current structure is build up and reconnection sets in when new emerging flux comes into contact with the ambient field of the active region. The topology of the magnetic field around the current structure is drastically modified during reconnection. The modification results in a formation of new magnetic systems that eventually collide and reconnect. We find that reconnection jets are taking place in successive recurrent phases in directions perpendicular to each other, while in each phase they release magnetic energy and hot plasma into the solar atmosphere. After a series of recurrent appearance of jets, the system approaches an equilibrium where the efficiency of the reconnection is substantially reduced. We deduce that the emergence of new magnetic flux introduces a perturbation to the active region field, which in turn causes reconnection between neighboring magnetic fields and the release of the trapped energy in the form of jet-like emissions. This is the first time that self-consistent recurrency of jets in active regions is shown in a three-dimensional experiment of magnetic flux emergence., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication (A&A)

The acceleration of charged particles (electrons and protons) in flaring solar active regions is analyzed by numerical experiments. The acceleration is modelled as a stochastic process taking place by the interaction of the particles with local magnetic reconnection sites via multiple steps. Two types of local reconnecting topologies are studied: the Harris-type and the X-point. A formula for the maximum kinetic energy gain in a Harris-type current sheet, found in a previous work of ours, fits well the numerical data for a single step of the process. A generalization is then given approximating the kinetic energy gain through an X-point. In the case of the multiple step process, in both topologies the particles' kinetic energy distribution is found to acquire a practically invariant form after a small number of steps. This tendency is interpreted theoretically. Other characteristics of the acceleration process are given, such as the mean acceleration time and the pitch angle distributions of the particles., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, Solar Physics, in press

We analyzed a coronal loop observed with the Normal Incidence Spectrometer (NIS), which is part of the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The measured Doppler shifts and proper motions along the selected loop strongly indicate unidirectional flows. Analysing the Emission Measure Curves of the observed spectral lines, we estimated that the temperature along the loop was about 380000 K. We adapted a solution of the ideal MHD steady equations to our set of measurements. The derived energy balance along the loop, as well as the advantages/disadvantages of this MHD model for understanding the characteristics of solar coronal loops are discussed., Comment: A&A in press, 10 pages, 6 figures

An analytical MHD model of coronal loops with compressible flows and including heating is compared to observational data. The model is constructed via a systematic nonlinear separation of the variables method used to calculate several classes of exact MHD equilibria in Cartesian geometry and uniform gravity. By choosing a particularly versatile solution class with a large parameter space we are able to calculate models whose loop length, shape, plasma density, temperature and velocity profiles are fitted to loops observed with TRACE, SoHO/CDS and SoHO/SUMER. Synthetic emission profiles are also calculated and fitted to the observed emission patterns. An analytical discussion is given of the two-dimenional balance of the Lorentz force and the gas pressure gradient, gravity and inertial forces acting along and across the loop. These models are the first to include a fully consistent description of the magnetic field, 2D geometry, plasma density and temperature, flow velocity and thermodynamics of loops. The consistently calculated heating profiles which are largely dominated by radiative losses are influenced by the flow and are asymmetrical being concentrated at the upflow footpoint., Comment: 31 pages, 11 figures, submitted to A&A