1. Local Empirical Modeling of NmF2 Using Ionosonde Observations and the FISM2 Solar EUV Model.
- Author
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Singh, D., Goncharenko, L. P., Galkin, I. A., Chamberlin, P. C., and Redondo, F.
- Subjects
ROTATION of the Sun ,SOLAR oscillations ,SPACE environment ,SOLAR activity ,SPECTRAL irradiance - Abstract
Local empirical models of the F2 layer peak electron density (NmF2) are developed for 43 low‐ middle latitude ionosonde stations using auto‐scaled data from Lowell GIRO data center and manually scaled data from World Data Center for Ionosphere and Space Weather. Data coverage at these stations ranges from a few years to up to 6 decades. Flare Irradiance Spectral Model index version 2 (FISM2) and ap3 index are used to parametrize the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux and geomagnetic activity dependence of NmF2. Learning curves suggest that approximately 8 years of data coverage is required to constrain the solar activity dependence of NmF2. Output of local models altogether captures well known anomalies of the F2 ionospheric layer. Performance metrics demonstrate that the model parametrized using FISM2 has better accuracy than a similarly parametrized model with F10.7, as well as than the IRI‐2020 model. Skill score metrics indicate that the FISM2 based model outperforms F10.7 model at all solar activity levels. The improved accuracy of model with FISM2 over F10.7 is due to better representation of solar rotation by FISM2, and due to its performance at solar extremum. Application of singular spectrum analysis to model output reveals that solar rotation contributes to about 2%–3% of the variance in NmF2 data and FISM2 based model, while F10.7 based models overestimate the strength of solar rotation to be at 4%–7%. At solar extremum, both F10.7‐based model and IRI‐2020 tend to overestimate the NmF2 while FISM2 provides the most accurate prediction out of three. Plain Language Summary: We developed local empirical models of peak electron density (NmF2) that describe its variation with solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and season. The NmF2 data for this model comes from 43 ionosonde stations all over the world. Our local models capture well known global characteristics of the NmF2. Further, we show that the solar activity dependence of NmF2 is better explained using the FISM2 which is an empirical model of solar EUV variability. Data‐model comparison reveals that FISM2 based model of NmF2 is more accurate than a F10.7 based model and significantly more accurate than the IRI‐2020 model. Among the three models, FISM2 provides the most accurate representation of the solar rotation signal in NmF2 and a better prediction of NmF2 during periods of solar maximum and minimum. Key Points: Local models of peak electron density for 43 low‐mid latitude ionosondes are developed. Models capture known global ionospheric featuresApproximately 8 years of minimum data coverage is required to describe the solar activity dependence of peak electron densityModels driven by the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model are more accurate than models driven by F10.7 and the IRI‐2020 model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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