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The aim of this paper is to assess the potential impacts of different fertiliz-er subsidy reform options on the performance of the Iranian crops production sector. This is achieved using a Regional Crop Programming (RCP) model, based on Positive Mathematical Programming, which includes in total 14 crop activities and encompass-es 31 administrative regions. The RCP model is a collection of micro-economic mod-els, working with exogenous prices, each representing the optimal crop allocation at the regional level. The model is calibrated against observed data on crop acreage, yield responses to nitrogen application, and exogenous supply elasticities. Simulation results show that a total removal of nitrogen fertilizer subsidies would affect the competitive-ness of crops with the highest nitrogen application rates and lead to a slight reduction of national agricultural income, at approximately 1%. This effect, which is more pro-nounced at the regional level, is driven by area reallocation rather than land produc-tivity. The reallocation of nitrogen fertilizer subsidy to only strategic crops boost their production and income but increase disparity among regions and affects negatively welfare compared to the current universal fertilizer program. The transfer efficiency analysis shows that both target and universal simulated options are inefficient with an efficiency score below one.

By developing meta-frontier efficiency and structural equation models, the paper examines whether farm economic viability is positively associated with technical efficiency in a highly food insecure context, such as that of rural Sierra Leone. The findings show that technical efficiency can be a sufficient but not necessary condition in determining economic viability of smallholder farming. It is possible to breach reproductive thresholds at the cost of reduced technical efficiency, when the crop diversification strategy of smallholders includes market-oriented high-value crops. This calls for a dual policy approach that addresses farmers’ internal needs for self-consumption (increasing efficiency of food crop production) while encouraging market-oriented cash crop production (diversification assisted through the reduction of associated transaction costs and the establishment of accessible commercialization channels of export related crops and/or high-value crops). The work also calls out for a move-up or move-out strategy for small holders to create viable farming systems in developing world.

The government of Tanzania is willing to improve the socio-economic environment for the farming sector to encourage farmers to produce (and sell) more products from their activities. To that end, the central government is reforming the local tax system and particularly the agricultural produce cess, which is a turnover tax on marketed agricultural products charged by local government authorities (LGAs) at a maximum of 5% of the farm-gate price. Although it constitutes a significant source of revenue for many LGAs, this tax restricts an increase in production by farmers, and thus improvement of their livelihoods. In 2017, the government reduced the maximum cess rate from 5% to 3%. However, this reduction seems insufficient according to stakeholders, and several options to further reduce the rate are currently under discussion by the government. This report provides an ex ante impact assessment of the main reform options, using a microeconomic simulation model called FSSIM-Dev (Farming System Simulator for Developing Countries). Based on positive mathematical programming, this model was applied to a representative sample of 3,134 farm households spread throughout the country, taken from the World Bank LSMS–ISA surveys. Simulation results show that reduction of the cess rate leads to greater intensification and an increase in farm income, ranging between +2% and +21% depending on options and regions. The largest positive impacts are observed in the Northern and Western highlands. As expected, large farms and farms specialized in cash crops tend to gain more from the reduction in cess. At the individual farm household level, the impact is modest: 95% of the farms will experience an income increase of less than 10%. The impact on food security and rural poverty reduction is quite limited (improvement is less than 2%). Finally, the results show that a uniform cess rate of 1% for all crops seems to be the most efficient policy option.; Ce rapport présente les résultats d'une analyse d'impact de plusieurs options de réforme de la taxe sur les produits agricoles en Tanzanie. Il s’agit d’une taxe sur le chiffre d'affaire des produits agricoles commercialisés perçue par les collectivités locales (LGA) fixée à un taux maximal de 5% du prix producteur. Bien qu'elle constitue une source de revenus importante pour de nombreuses LGA, cette taxe empêche l’augmentation de la production agricole, et donc l’amélioration des moyens de subsistance des exploitants. En 2017, le gouvernement a réduit le taux maximal de 5% à 3%. Cependant, cette réduction semble insuffisante selon les parties prenantes, et plusieurs options pour réduire davantage ce taux sont actuellement à l’étude par le gouvernement. Cette analyse est réalisée à l’aide d’un modèle microéconomique appliqué à un échantillon représentatif de 3134 ménages agricoles répartis sur l’ensemble du pays provenant des enquêtes LSMS-ISA de la Banque Mondiale. Les effets potentiels des options de réforme simulées sur l'utilisation des terres, la production, l'utilisation des intrants, le revenu agricole, les revenus des gouvernements locaux et certains indicateurs liés à la sécurité alimentaire sont présentés et discutés dans ce rapport.

This report presents the results of an impact analysis of several reform options of the agricultural produce cess in Tanzania. The produce cess is a levy charged by Local Governments Authorities (LGAs) on the value of the marketed agricultural production. This analysis is achieved using a micro-economic model applied to a representative sample of 3134 farm-households spread out over all the country coming from the World Bank-LSMS-ISA surveys. The potential effects of the simulated reform options on land use, production, input use, farm income, LGAs revenues and some food security related indicators are presented and discussed., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

The report assesses the relationship between land size and performance in the developing world. Farm and plot performance data were gathered through an exhaustive review of mostly peer-reviewed publications over the last 22 years (1997-2018) in English, French and Spanish. Following the screening of the material, a selection of 472 papers was reviewed, creating a pool of over 1100 individual observations or cases. Both specific and general agricultural economics studies using land area as explaining variable in their performance estimates were explored. Three groups of indicators (i.e. gross output, net value and efficiency) were analysed according to area size in an effort to capture global indicators of performance, beyond the too often used partial indicators (e.g. yield or gross value per area). Analyses based on farm data show that there has been a revival of interest on the question particularly on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) agriculture, given the increased rate of specific literature publications. The review looked for evidence documenting the various possible relationships that could relate the size of an agricultural holding to its performance (i.e. direct, inverse and non-monotonic). The main explanations shaping the size-performance relationship were explored, namely: the contextual rural input market (i.e. labour, land, input, etc.) imperfections but also methodological shortcomings of the existing literature. On the one hand, inverse relationship (IR) is clearly the dominant type of interaction between cropped land area and agricultural performance using the most common performance indicator group used (gross output mainly populated by studies using yield or total value). However, the economic literature has clearly demonstrated that the use of this type of indicator of performance is generally ill-advised in assessing the farm size performance relationship. On the other hand, the less frequent but more global productivity indicator group of "efficiency" and "net values" do not report such a clear-cut relationship. As a matter of fact, cases using "efficiency" performance indicators are more likely to record a direct relationship than IR. Moreover, the emergence of non-monotonic relationships needs to be highlighted showing that the relationship may not be constant. Tests conducted on the existing material clearly associate a number of rural factor market imperfections with the prevalence of the IR. Hence, IR is more likely to be a symptom of imperfections and lack of opportunities for rural labour than an advantage of a given type of farms. In turn, methodological reasons explored also indicate that narrower ranges of farm size in a given study increase the reporting of IR, particularly in SSA and when analysing partial performance indicators. From being an established stylised “fact” in development economics, IR may not be taken for granted because of empirical complexities in accurately assessing it but also because there is evidence that such a relationship depends on the performance indicator analysed. Hence, IR may not necessarily be considered systematic, continuous, stable through time, irreversible or universal. From a broader development intervention perspective, and based on the review results, the recommended performance indicators (i.e. net value and efficiency) show that larger farms tend to be more performant than the smaller farms. However, this does not suggest the abandonment of smallholders by policy as there are both critical economic and social justifications for the direct improvement of the living conditions of a large share of the population in most of the developing world. It rather advocates a revisited and expanded development role for medium sized ones., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

Africa is currently only producing about 10% of global agricultural output while estimated to possess 25% of the world’s arable land. That said, the estimated additional available agricultural land is probably lower than what is generally assumed given the trend in rising rural population density, which, in places is comparable to Asian levels. Moreover, most soils are fragile with low nutrients and organic matter concentration.A "great balancing act" is needed between the increasing and diversifying food and nutrition security (FNS) needs and the resources available. More generically, reaching FNS faces both conventional (demographics) and emerging challenges (climate change). The debate on the sustainability of agriculture requires translation into specific approached and practices. The report gathers a conventional literature review of existing publications (Peer-reviewed journals, major reports and relevant project documents). The material consulted was mostly in English with references to French documents particularly for West and Central African experiences. The key databases consulted were Scopus and Google Scholar.The challenges faced by Africa’s agriculture are very diverse considering a sustainable approach in responding to the regions’ FNS needs. As such, there is no single solution (‘silver bullet’) allowing the sector to sustainably increase its contribution to food supply. Ultimately, opting for a coherent set of approaches or more targeted agricultural practices depends on the great diversity of local contexts (environmental, institutional, seasonal, etc.) as well as characteristics and motivation of individual farmers and their communities. Collective action in the uptake of key practices has been recorded as having produced more sustainable benefits. When looking at each newly adapted practice as innovations it is essential to look towards more coherent, and more importantly, effective sustainable production systems. For FNS intervention to be sustainable, intervention would benefit from adopting a landscape framework so that the various objectives of sustainability can be coherently negotiated alongside pure FNS objectives. Considering land sharing could be particularly relevant for areas with potential agriculture frontier (e.g. Sahel countries, RDC) but also to those were forest "encroachment" is the only remaining frontier given the rising population density. Management approaches that could improve soils emerge as a prerequisite to conventional intensification. As it is the case for input-based intensification of agriculture, the results from the different management-based approaches are not universal and absolute responses cannot be derived from the cases reviewed (including the meta-analyses). Careful targeting and local adaptation remain fundamental ingredients for both improved performance and the long-term adoption of any of the principles and associated practices. A general challenge for adoption is that of timing. Any new practice or approach promoted is expected to provide at least a perceivable improvement in the objectives of farmers in the short-term, when they are generally most sensitive to., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

In Niger, one of the key objectives of agricultural policy is to promote the development of small-scale irrigation infrastructure in order to diversify agricultural production, extend the growing season, increase land productivity and secure farmers’ incomes. Small-scale irrigation is regarded as a possible alternative to large-scale collective schemes because it is cheaper to set up and maintain and easier to manage. This report presents the results of modelling the impacts of a small-scale irrigation development programme, known as the Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (Small-Scale Irrigation Strategy in Niger, or SPIN for its acronym in French), in terms of land use, agricultural production, income generation and poverty reduction. This analysis was conducted using the FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) model and data obtained from a representative national sample of farm households. FSSIM-Dev is a comparative static model using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach tailored to producer-consumer households and to the particular aspects of the sub-Saharan rural economy. Applied to each farm household included in a representative sample for Niger, FSSIM-Dev allows for capturing all the heterogeneous impacts of a development programme such as the SPIN. The modelling results show that increasing the irrigated area in the dry season by 47,000 hectares, i.e. 44%, which is in line with the SPIN objectives, would bring significant benefits to Nigerien farm households. The average farm income would increase by 12% and income inequalities between households in rural areas would reduce by around five Gini points, i.e. approximately 9%. Increasing the irrigated area would also create many new jobs and reduce the rural poverty rate by more than one point (from 52.4% to 50.8%). The estimated cost of such a programme would be between 47 billion CFA francs and 189 billion CFA francs, to be split between farmers and the State., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

Ce rapport présente les résultats d’une évaluation ex-ante de plusieurs scénarios de ciblage des ménages agricoles pour le programme de subvention des engrais actuellement en place au Sénégal. Cette étude a été réalisée à l’aide du modèle de ménage agricole FSSIM-Dev calibré sur un échantillon de 2 278 ménages agricole issus de l’enquête ESPS-2. Les effets sur les assolements, l’utilisation de l’engrais, le revenu des ménages mais aussi sur le budget de l’Etat sont présentés et discutés., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

This report presents the FSSIM-Dev (Farming System Simulator for Developing Countries) model, which is one of the decision-making tools developed by the JRC to provide independent evidence-based policy analysis in the areas of food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa. It aims to stimulate dialogue between scientists and policymakers, and to challenge them in better addressing the question of the ‘last mile’ between research results and concrete decision-making. FSSIM-Dev is a farm household model used to ex ante assess the impacts of agri-food policies and technological innovations on food security and rural poverty alleviation, in the specific context of low-income/developing countries. It aims to inform policymakers on how changes in prices, technology, food and agricultural policies might affect the viability, poverty and food security of heterogeneous sets of farm households that characterize the agricultural sector, which types of farm households will be most affected, where these most-affected farms are located, etc. The report provides a detailed description of the FSSIM-Dev model in terms of design, mathematical structure, data preparation, calibration process, and modelling of household (market) decisions. The rationale, theoretical background, technical specification and main indicators that can be generated from this model are also presented and discussed. The report also presents a comprehensive summary of results from the application of FSSIM-Dev to three countries: Ethiopia, Niger and Tanzania. Data from the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS–ISA) ( ), which provide a national representative survey of the rural population with a focus on the farming sector, were used in these three country case studies., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

This paper investigates the impact of corporate research and development (R&D) on firm performance in the food-processing industry. We apply Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with two step bootstrapping using a corporate data for 307 food-processing firms from the EU, US, Canada and Japan for the period 1991-2009. The estimates suggest that R&D has a positive effect on the firms’ performance, with marginal gains decreasing in the R&D level as well as the performance differences are detected across regions and food sectors. R&D investments in food processing can deliver productivity gains, beyond the high-tech sectors generally favoured by innovation policy., Bio-based and Applied Economics, Vol 7 No 3 (2018)

There is rising concern that the ongoing wave of urbanization will have profound effects on eating patterns and increase the risk of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. Yet, our understanding of urbanization as a driver of food consumption remains limited and primarily based upon research designs that fail to disentangle the effect of living in an urban environment from other socioeconomic disparities. Data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey, which tracked out-migrating respondents, allow us to compare individuals’ dietary patterns before and after they relocated from rural to urban areas and assess whether those changes differ from household members who stayed behind or moved to a different rural area. We find that individuals who relocated to urban areas experience a much more pronounced shift away from the consumption of traditional staples, and towards more high-sugar, conveniently consumed and prepared foods. Contrary to what is often claimed in the literature, living in an urban environment is not found to contribute positively to the intake of protein-rich foods, nor to diet diversity. Though we do not find a strong association with weight gain, these changes in eating patterns represent a clear nutritional concern regarding the potential longer-term impacts of urbanization. Our results however also indicate that the growth of unhealthy food consumption with urbanization is largely linked to rising incomes. As such, health concerns over diets can be expected to spread rapidly to less-urbanized areas as well, as soon as income growth takes off there. Our findings clearly call for more in-depth research that may help to improve health and food and nutrition security as well as correctly predict food demand and adapt trade, agricultural and development policies., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

Au Niger, un objectif important de la politique agricole consiste à promouvoir le développement de petites infrastructures d’irrigation afin de diversifier la production agricole, prolonger la saison de culture, augmenter la productivité des terres et sécuriser les revenus des agriculteurs. La petite irrigation est considéré comme une alternative possible aux grands aménagements collectifs car elle est moins coûteuse à mettre en œuvre et à entretenir et plus facile à gérer. Ce rapport présente les résultats d’une modélisation des impacts d’un programme de développement de systèmes d’irrigation de petite échelle au Niger, appelé la Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (SPIN), en termes d’utilisation des terres, de production agricole, de génération de revenus et de réduction de la pauvreté. Cette analyse a été conduite à l’aide du modèle FSSIM-DEV (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) et des données provenant d’un échantillon national représentatif de ménages agricoles. FSSIM-DEV est un modèle statique comparatif de programmation mathématique positive (PMP) adapté aux ménages producteurs – consommateurs et aux particularités de l'économie rurale Sub-Saharienne. Appliqué à chaque ménage agricole inclus dans un échantillon représentatif pour le Niger, il permet de saisir toute l'hétérogénéité des impacts d'un programme de développement tel que la SPIN. Les résultats de la modélisation montrent qu'une augmentation de 47 000 hectares soit 44% des surfaces irriguées en saison sèche, correspondant aux objectifs de la SPIN, apporterait des bénéfices significatifs aux ménages producteurs nigériens. Le revenu agricole moyen augmenterait de 12% et les inégalités de revenu des ménages en milieu rural diminueraient de près de 5 points de GINI, soit d'environ 9%. L'extension des surfaces irriguées engendrerait également un grand nombre de création d'emplois, ainsi qu'une diminution du taux de pauvreté rurale de plus d'un point (de 52,4% à 50,8%). Le coût d'un tel programme serait compris entre 47 et 189 milliards de CFA, à répartir entre producteurs et Etat. In Niger, one of the key objectives of agricultural policy is to promote the development of small-scale irrigation infrastructure in order to diversify agricultural production, extend the growing season, increase land productivity and secure farmers’ incomes. Small-scale irrigation is regarded as a possible alternative to large-scale collective schemes because it is cheaper to set up and maintain and easier to manage. This report presents the results of modelling the impacts of a small-scale irrigation development programme, known as the Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (Small-Scale Irrigation Strategy in Niger, or SPIN for its acronym in French), in terms of land use, agricultural production, income generation and poverty reduction. This analysis was conducted using the FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) model and data obtained from a representative national sample of farm households. FSSIM-Dev is a comparative static model using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach tailored to producer-consumer households and to the particular aspects of the sub-Saharan rural economy. Applied to each farm household included in a representative sample for Niger, FSSIM-Dev allows for capturing all the heterogeneous impacts of a development programme such as the SPIN. The modelling results show that increasing the irrigated area in the dry season by 47,000 hectares, i.e. 44%, which is in line with the SPIN objectives, would bring significant benefits to Nigerien farm households. The average farm income would increase by 12% and income inequalities between households in rural areas would reduce by around five Gini points, i.e. approximately 9%. Increasing the irrigated area would also create many new jobs and reduce the rural poverty rate by more than one point (from 52.4% to 50.8%). The estimated cost of such a programme would be between 47 billion CFA francs and 189 billion CFA francs, to be split between farmers and the State., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

This report presents the results of an impact analysis of several scenarios related to the Agricultural Commercialization Cluster (ACC) initiative. This initiative was introduced by the Government of Ethiopia during the first Growth and Transformation Plan (2010-2015) as a mechanism to improve agricultural productivity and production within specific geographies by targeting a limited number of high-value commodities. The farm-household model FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) is applied to a representative sample of 2,886 individual farm-households spread throughout the country, taken from the 2013/14 Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey. Simulation results show that upscaling the ACC productivity performance to the respective regions would lead to an increase in production of the main products ranging between 1.8% and 62.6%, depending on scenario, region and commodity. The average (across all ACC scenarios considered) country-level production increase for wheat, teff, maize and barley are assessed to be 29.6%, 21.1%, 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. These impacts are driven by the rise in land productivity, rather than area expansion (through putting fallow land into cultivation) and/or area reallocation. The increase in crop yields would also have a positive impact on both income and poverty level of farm households. The average increase in gross income at the country and individual farm-household levels are assessed to be around 14% and 9%, respectively. These impacts could be more pronounced for individual farms: for example, 85% of the farms would experience an increase in gross income of up to 17% to 32%, depending on the nature of scenarios considered. The largest income change occurs in farms specializing in field crops, and in medium-large farms (i.e. farms with total production value of larger than ETB 9,000). The increase in both production and income would also raise food consumption and improve nutritional indicators., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

L'agriculture en Côte d'Ivoire est le fait de différents types de systèmes de production, qui différent grandement les uns et les autres, en termes de taille, d'accès aux ressources de production (travail, capital) ou encore de droits fonciers. Certaines régions combinent sur un même espace des systèmes de production familiaux, patronaux et d'entreprises, chacune de ces catégories pouvant d'ailleurs renfermer une grande diversité de systèmes. Par ailleurs, ces différentes exploitations n'évoluent pas en vase clos, loin de là, et elles interagissent et échangent connaissances, ressources et produits finis. Leur trajectoire de différenciation – en constante évolution – ne peut se comprendre que par une étude fine de leurs caractéristiques et de leurs relations les unes aux autres. Il en va de même pour l'étude de leurs performances économiques. L'objectif de ce projet de recherche, dont les principaux résultats sont rassemblés dans ce rapport, était donc d'analyser le fonctionnement économique de ces différents systèmes de production, et par conséquent leurs performances économiques comparées, à partir de trois études de cas en Côte d'Ivoire, concernant plus particulièrement la culture de l'hévéa, du palmier à huile et de la canne à sucre. Les résultats montrent l'importance de la prise en compte de tous les aspects des exploitations dans la réalisation de telles analyses : les performances "au champs" (rendement, marge brute) s'avérant de mauvais indicateurs de la performance finale. Nos résultats montrent la capacité de l'agriculture familiale à générer des revenus important alors même qu'elle reste très peu dotée en capital. Dans les trois régions étudiées de Côte d'Ivoire, les exploitations familiales sont parfaitement capables de rivaliser avec les exploitations patronales et industrielles voisines. Grâce à des systèmes de culture complexe, associant cultures pérennes et cultures vivrières, elles créent bien souvent plus de richesse par unité de surface ou de travail que les plus grandes exploitations. Ces dernières pâtissent de déséconomies d'échelles liées leur taille et aux coûts d'organisation du travail, ainsi que, dans le cas des plantations industrielles, de la poursuite d'une logique industrielle au détriment de la logique agricole. Les conclusions de ce travail ont d'importantes implications pour les bailleurs de fond ou les agences de développement., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

Chap. 4; International audience; This paper explores the impacts of a small irrigation programme in Niger on land allocation, agricultural production and income generation using a farm-level model and data from a nationally representative sample of farm households. A static positive programming model was applied to every individual farm household included in sample to capture the full heterogeneity of impacts across farm households. The results show the large potential impact of irrigation on agriculture production and income generation, especially during the dry season and in regions with high-potential irrigable land. Farm income would increase by around 7% at country level if small irrigation was made available to all farmers. Small irrigation infrastructure would also contribute to reducing income inequality.; Cet article explore les impacts d'un petit programme d'irrigation au Niger sur l'allocation des terres, la production agricole et la génération de revenus en utilisant un modèle au niveau de l'exploitation et des données provenant d'un échantillon nationalement représentatif de ménages agricoles. Un modèle de programmation statique positif a été appliqué à chaque ménage agricole individuel inclus dans l'échantillon afin de capter l'hétérogénéité complète des impacts entre les ménages agricoles. Les résultats montrent l'important impact potentiel de l'irrigation sur la production agricole et la génération de revenus, en particulier pendant la saison sèche et dans les régions à fort potentiel de terres irrigables. Le revenu agricole augmenterait d'environ 7% au niveau national si une petite irrigation était mise à la disposition de tous les agriculteurs. La petite infrastructure d'irrigation contribuerait également à réduire les inégalités de revenus.

This paper assesses the impacts of abolishing the direct payments of the CAP using the model IFM-CAP (Individual Farm Model for CAP Analysis). IFM-CAP simulates the behaviour of each individual farmer in the EU-FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network). Simulation results show that some farm-types experience an increase in income due to the price and yields changes (specialist granivores and other fieldcrops), while farms that are more dependent on CAP subsides are negatively affected (e.g. specialist cattle, specialist COP and smallest economic size farms). As much as 64 % of farms loose more than EUR 100 per hectare of income if direct payments are eliminated.