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Given the importance of soil organic carbon (SOC) as a pool in the global carbon cycle and an indicator for soil quality, there exits an urgent need to monitor this dynamic soil property. Here, we present a modelling approach to analyze the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of organic carbon in mineral soils under agricultural land use in Belgium. An empirical model, predicting the SOC concentration in the top 0.3 m, as a function of precipitation, land use, soil type and management has been constructed and applied within a spatial context using data from different time slices. The results show that SOC content is strongly correlated with precipitation and temperature under cropland and with texture and drainage under grassland. Total SOC stock increased with 1.3% from 6.18 ± 0.03 kg C m in 1960 to 6.26 ± 0.07 kg C m in 2006. Although this increase was not significant ( P>0.05), a significant discrepancy between cropland (−8%) and grassland (+10%) was observed. Foremost, the grasslands in the hilly southern part of the country, under relatively wet climate conditions, acted as important sinks of CO. Under cropland, all soil types were characterized by a decrease in SOC, except for the clay soils in the north-west. Currently, croplands in the central loam region have SOC concentrations close to 10 g C kg indicating that these soils are at risk of a decline in aggregate stability. An overall strong SOC decline in poorly drained soils is probably caused by artificial drainage. Further research is needed to gain more insight into the processes driving the observed SOC trends. Moreover, the use of updated drainage class information and land management history would improve the empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks.