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This paper outlines new perspectives for data-supported foresight by combining participatory expert-based futures dialogues with the power of artificial intelligence (AI) in what we call the hybrid AI-expert-based foresight approach. To this end, we present a framework of five typical steps in a fully fledged foresight process ranging from scoping to strategizing and show how AI can be integrated into each of the steps to enable the hybrid AI-expert foresight approach. Building on this, we present experiences gained from two recent research projects of TNO and Fraunhofer ISI that deal with aspects of the hybrid AI-expert foresight approach and give insights into the opportunities and challenges of the new perspectives for data-supported foresight that this approach enables. Finally, we summarize open questions and challenges for future research.

In the context of the preparation of the future research and innovation Framework Programme of the European Union (FP9), the study collects and analyses evidence of current and recent mission-oriented research and innovation initiatives in European Member States and other major economies around the world. The study includes a desk research improving the understanding of mission-oriented R&I initiatives, a definition, and an inventory and analysis of over forty ongoing initiatives (of which seven in depth cases) addressing major global challenges, such as climate change, health, ageing or food security. The analyses explore implementation and management, including their governance structure, the policy mix as well as the monitoring systems and evaluation mechanisms. The Study highlights that there is a plurality of mission-oriented R&I initiatives. Directionality and intentionality nevertheless differentiate them from other initiatives, such as those that are challenge-driven. The success of these initiatives highly depends on pre-conditions, such as institutions and policies already in place as well as existing capacities and knowledge.

In the context of the preparation of the future research and innovation Framework Programme of the European Union (FP9), the study collects evidence to assess the potential impacts of mission-oriented R&I approaches. The extensive desk research is the basis for the analysis of mission-oriented R&I initiatives and provides new insights in the understanding of their potential impacts and help determine the potential influence of a move towards mission orientation in the EU28 countries. The Study identifies three potential scenarios: a transition to accelerator or transforming missions only, or to the compound of these two (hybrid model). Opinions and data from a varied audience of stakeholders were collected through interviews, a survey and a workshop. The main findings are that the introduction of a mission-oriented approach is widely supported, and that the hybrid model is deemed the most appropriate. The design and implementation of this approach will need to consider carefully the engagement of a wide array of stakeholders including citizens, the coordination across policy domains, policy departments and governance levels, and evaluation and monitoring mechanisms among others.