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To improve our knowledge of the coupling of atmospheric circulation, composition and regional climate, and to provide the urgently needed observations of long-term changes in the middle atmosphere, the Changing-Atmosphere Infra-Red Tomography Explorer (CAIRT) is one of four mission concepts down-selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) for competitive pre-feasibility studies, vying for implementation as the next Earth Explorer satellite mission. As a Fourier transform infrared limb imager, CAIRT will observe simultaneously from the middle troposphere to the lower thermosphere at high spectral resolution and with unprecedented horizontal and vertical resolution (with a goal of 50×50×1 km globally). With this, CAIRT will provide new and critical information on (a) atmospheric gravity waves, circulation and mixing, (b) coupling with the upper atmosphere, solar variability and space weather and, (c) aerosols and pollutants in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. In this presentation we will give an overview of CAIRT’s science goals and the expected mission performance, based on latest results from early mission definition studies., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

The ultimate goal of LOTUS is to improve confidence in calculated ozone trend values via an improved understanding of the uncertainties. Chapter 3 highlighted many of the challenges facing analyses of long-term ozone time series, and despite the fact that many of those challenges still need to be addressed, it is worthwhile to assess the trend results from this work in such a way as to be able to place those in the context of previous work. This chapter highlights the results of taking the "LOTUS regression" model from Chapter 4 and applying it to the different data sets (i.e., satellite, ground, and model) at different resolutions comparable to those in previous ozone assessments and comprehensive studies (e.g., WMO, 2014; Harris et al., 2015; Steinbrecht et al., 2017). The individual satellite-based trend results are then combined to obtain a single mean ozone trend profile with respective uncertainty estimates. This important yet challenging final step in the assessment has been the cause of debate in the community in recent years. Different methods for combining the individual trend results are discussed and explained, and the final trend profile estimates are analysed for significance.

One of the primary motivations of the LOTUS effort is to attempt to reconcile the discrepancies in ozone trend results from the wealth of literature on the subject. Doing so requires investigating the various methodologies employed to derive long-term trends in ozone as well as to examine the large array of possible variables that feed into those methodologies and analyse their impacts on potential trend results. Given the limited amount of time, the LOTUS group focused on the most common methodology of multiple linear regression and performed a number of sensitivity tests with the goal of trying to establish best practices and come to a consensus on a single regression model to use for this study. This chapter discusses the details and results of the sensitivity tests before describing the components of the final single model that was chosen and the reasons for that choice.

In this paper, we compare model calculations of ozone profiles and their variability for the period 1998 to 2016 with satellite and lidar profiles at five ground-based stations. Under the investigation is the temporal impact of the stratospheric halogen reduction (chemical processes) and increase in greenhouse gases (i.e., global warming) on stratospheric ozone changes. Attention is given to the effect of greenhouse gases on ultraviolet-B radiation at ground level. Our chemistry transport and chemistry climate models (Oslo CTM3 and EMAC CCM) indicate that (a) the effect of halogen reduction is maximized in ozone recovery at 1-7 hPa and observed at all lidar stations; and (b) significant impact of greenhouse gases on stratospheric ozone recovery is predicted after the year 2050. Our study indicates that solar ultraviolet-B irradiance that produces DNA damage would increase after the year 2050 by +1.3% per decade. Such change in the model is driven by a significant decrease in cloud cover due to the evolution of greenhouse gases in the future and an insignificant trend in total ozone. If our estimates prove to be true, then it is likely that the process of climate change will overwhelm the effect of ozone recovery on UV-B irradiance in midlatitudes. © 2020 by the authors.

We have derived values of the ultraviolet index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between −5.9 % and 10.6 %. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2 %–4 %) in the tropical belt (30∘ N–30∘ S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 % to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and found a 2.3 % decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 % to 5.5 % for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9 % for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367

This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle) and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD), tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature. © 2018 Author(s).

Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other ozone depleting substance (ODS) concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical) and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N) Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based) available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument). Archive location information for each data set is also given., Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 7 (5), ISSN:1867-1381, ISSN:1867-8548

The EU CANDIDOZ project investigated the chemical and dynamical influences on decadal ozone trends focusing on the Northern Hemisphere. High quality long-term ozone data sets, satellite-based as well as ground-based, and the long-term meteorological reanalyses from ECMWF and NCEP are used together with advanced multiple regression models and atmospheric models to assess the relative roles of chemistry and transport in stratospheric ozone changes. This overall synthesis of the individual analyses in CANDIDOZ shows clearly one common feature in the NH mid latitudes and in the Arctic: an almost monotonic negative trend from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s followed by an increase. In most trend studies, the Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) which peaked in 1997 as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol was observed to describe ozone loss better than a simple linear trend. Furthermore, all individual analyses point to changes in dynamical drivers, such as the residual circulation (responsible for the meridional transport of ozone into middle and high latitudes) playing a key role in the observed turnaround. The changes in ozone transport are associated with variations in polar chemical ozone loss via heterogeneous ozone chemistry on PSCs (polar stratospheric clouds). Synoptic scale processes as represented by the new equivalent latitude proxy, by conventional tropopause altitude or by 250 hPa geopotential height have also been successfully linked to the recent ozone increases in the lowermost stratosphere. These show significant regional variation with a large impact over Europe and seem to be linked to changes in tropospheric climate patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Some influence in recent ozone increases was also attributed to the rise in solar cycle number 23. Changes from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s were found in a number of characteristics of the Arctic vortex. However, only one trend was found when more recent years are also considered, namely the tendency for cold winters to become colder.

The EU CANDIDOZ project investigated the chemical and dynamical influences on decadal ozone trends focusing on the Northern Hemisphere. High quality long-term ozone data sets, satellite-based as well as ground-based, and the long-term meteorological reanalyses from ECMWF and NCEP are used together with advanced multiple regression models and atmospheric models to assess the relative roles of chemistry and transport in stratospheric ozone changes. This overall synthesis of the individual analyses in CANDIDOZ shows clearly one common feature in the NH mid latitudes and in the Arctic: an almost monotonic negative trend from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s followed by an increase. In most trend studies, the Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) which peaked in 1997 as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol was observed to describe ozone loss better than a simple linear trend. Furthermore, all individual analyses point to changes in dynamical drivers, such as the residual circulation (responsible for the meridional transport of ozone into middle and high latitudes) playing a key role in the observed turnaround. The changes in ozone transport are associated with variations in polar chemical ozone loss via heterogeneous ozone chemistry on PSCs (polar stratospheric clouds). Synoptic scale processes as represented by the new equivalent latitude proxy, by conventional tropopause altitude or by 250 hPa geopotential height have also been successfully linked to the recent ozone increases in the lowermost stratosphere. These show significant regional variation with a large impact over Europe and seem to be linked to changes in tropospheric climate patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Some influence in recent ozone increases was also attributed to the rise in solar cycle number 23. Changes from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s were found in a number of characteristics of the Arctic vortex. However, only one trend was found when more recent years are also considered, namely the tendency for cold winters to become colder. ISSN:0992-7689 ISSN:0939-4176 ISSN:1432-0576

The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), on-board the European ENVIronmental SATellite (ENVISAT) launched on 1 March 2002, is a middle infrared Fourier Transform spectrometer measuring the atmospheric emission spectrum in limb sounding geometry. The instrument is capable to retrieve the vertical distribution of temperature and trace gases, aiming at the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, and at applications to data assimilation and weather forecasting. MIPAS operated in its standard observation mode for approximately two years, from July 2002 to March 2004, with scans performed at nominal spectral resolution of 0.025 cm -1 and covering the altitude range from the mesosphere to the upper troposphere with relatively high vertical resolution (about 3 km in the stratosphere). Only reduced spectral resolution measurements have been performed subsequently. MIPAS data were re-processed by ESA using updated versions of the Instrument Processing Facility (IPF v4.61 and v4.62) and provided a complete set of level-2 operational products (geolocated vertical profiles of temperature and volume mixing ratio of H2O, O3, HNO3, CH4, N2O and NO2) with quasi continuous and global coverage in the period of MIPAS full spectral resolution mission. In this paper, we report a detailed description of the validation of MIPAS-ENVISAT operational ozone data, that was based on the comparison between MIPAS v4.61 (and, to a lesser extent, v4.62) O3 VMR profiles and a comprehensive set of correlative data, including observations from ozone sondes, ground-based lidar, FTIR and microwave radiometers, remote-sensing and in situ instruments on-board stratospheric aircraft and balloons, concurrent satellite sensors and ozone fields assimilated by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting. A coordinated effort was carried out, using common criteria for the selection of individual validation data sets, and similar methods for the comparisons. This enabled merging the individual results from a variety of independent reference measurements of proven quality (i.e. well characterized error budget) into an overall evaluation of MIPAS O3 data quality, having both statistical strength and the widest spatial and temporal coverage. Collocated measurements from ozone sondes and ground-based lidar and microwave radiometers of the Network for the Detection Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) were selected to carry out comparisons with time series of MIPAS O 3 partial columns and to identify groups of stations and time periods with a uniform pattern of ozone differences, that were subsequently used for a vertically resolved statistical analysis. The results of the comparison are classified according to synoptic and regional systems and to altitude intervals, showing a generally good agreement within the comparison error bars in the upper and middle stratosphere. Significant differences emerge in the lower stratosphere and are only partly explained by the larger contributions of horizontal and vertical smoothing differences and of collocation errors to the total uncertainty. Further results obtained from a purely statistical analysis of the same data set from NDACC ground-based lidar stations, as well as from additional ozone soundings at middle latitudes and from NDACC ground-based FTIR measurements, confirm the validity of MIPAS O3 profiles down to the lower stratosphere, with evidence of larger discrepancies at the lowest altitudes. The validation against O3 VMR profiles using collocated observations performed by other satellite sensors (SAGE II, POAM III, ODIN-SMR, ACE-FTS, HALOE, GOME) and ECMWF assimilated ozone fields leads to consistent results, that are to a great extent compatible with those obtained from the comparison with ground-based measurements. Excellent agreement in the full vertical range of the comparison is shown with respect to collocated ozone data from stratospheric aircraft and balloon instruments, that was mostly obtained in very good spatial and temporal coincidence with MIPAS scans. This might suggest that the larger differences observed in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere with respect to collocated ground-based and satellite O3 data are only partly due to a degradation of MIPAS data quality. They should be rather largely ascribed to the natural variability of these altitude regions and to other components of the comparison errors. By combining the results of this large number of validation data sets we derived a general assessment of MIPAS v4.61 and v4.62 ozone data quality. A clear indication of the validity of MIPAS O3 vertical profiles is obtained for most of the stratosphere, where the mean relative difference with the individual correlative data sets is always lower than ±10%. Furthermore, these differences always fall within the combined systematic error (from 1 hPa to 5OhPa) and the standard deviation is fully consistent with the random error of the comparison (from 1 hPa to ∼~30-40hPa). A degradation in the quality of the agreement is generally observed in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, with biases up to 25% at 100 hPa and standard deviation of the global mean differences up to three times larger than the combined random error in the range 50-100 hPa. The larger differences observed at the bottom end of MIPAS retrieved profiles can be associated, as already noticed, to the effects of stronger atmospheric gradients in the UTLS that are perceived differently by the various measurement techniques. However, further components that may degrade the results of the comparison at lower altitudes can be identified as potentially including cloud contamination, which is likely not to have been fully filtered using the current settings of the MIPAS cloud detection algorithm, and in the linear approximation of the forward model that was used for the a priori estimate of systematic error components. The latter, when affecting systematic contributions with a random variability over the spatial and temporal scales of global averages, might result in an underestimation of the random error of the comparison and add up to other error sources, such as the possible underestimates of the p and T error propagation based on the assumption of a 1K and 2% uncertainties, respectively, on MIPAS temperature and pressure retrievals. At pressure lower than 1 hPa, only a small fraction of the selected validation data set provides correlative ozone data of adequate quality and it is difficult to derive quantitative conclusions about the performance of MIPAS O2 retrieval for the topmost layers.