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While the regulations are revolutionary in their use of "substantial compliance," the interpretation and application of HCFA's new remedial scheme are still uncertain, as states are given broad discretion in defining important terms and in applying and interpreting the criteria to select remedies. Further complicating the issue is the fact that some states, including California, intend to seek waivers from HCFA to substitute their own state enforcement systems for most, if not all, of the new federal system. Based upon these uncertainties, the enforcement of nursing facility standards will likely be in a state of flux for some time to come.

As this article goes to press, it is nearly impossible to predict what sort of health reform plan will ultimately be passed, if any, and whether any form of long-term care coverage will be included. The need for such coverage will not, however, diminish with the close of the current congressional session and is likely to be a topic of debate for some time. The entire process of health reform legislation has been one of paring down initial hopes and expectations, and it may take many more years, until an even larger segment of our population is aged, before log-term care coverage becomes politically and fiscally desirable enough to withstand the political process.