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Lasting imbalances between the demand for educated labor and the size and educational composition of the supply of university graduates has been a common phenomenon for both developed and developing countries. Drawing on human capital theory, this paper develops a methodology to help education planners restore the balance. Includes 49 references. (MLH)

Projections 10 years ahead are made of employment of university-educated workers. On the demand side, projections are based on trends of sectoral output, productivity, and occupational composition. On the supply side, projections rely on first year enrollments/graduates ratios by educational department. (Author/MLW)

The objectives of this paper are: first, to briefly review the different theoretical aspects of brain drain and its potential positive or negative, direct or indirect effects on the economy of the home country; second, to highlight the limited empirical research on some of these issues; and third, to discuss on this grounding the empirical evidence on the nature and size of brain drain, as well as its impact on the economies of Albania and Bulgaria. As it appears, the evidence for these two countries and its evaluation as to whether brain drain has been or can be a threat to their development is contradictory and confusing, as it comes out from different casual observations without a convincing analysis. The relevant discussion has not escaped the stereotype way of thinking that the economy and society of these two countries would have been better had emigration of educated persons not taken place, or had those who migrated just returned. The conclusion on policy for brain drain and brain return is that merely hindering the emigration of educated people or trying to motivate their return cannot by itself elevate education and research to higher quality levels and promote development and growth. Without simultaneously developing a friendly and comprehensive institutional and pragmatic framework, such measures are often ineffective or even counterproductive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are: first, to briefly review the different theoretical aspects of brain drain and its potential positive or negative, direct or indirect effects on the economy of the home country; second, to highlight the limited empirical research on some of these issues; and third, to discuss on this grounding the empirical evidence on the nature and size of brain drain, as well as its impact on the economies of Albania and Bulgaria. As it appears, the evidence for these two countries and its evaluation as to whether brain drain has been or can be a threat to their development is contradictory and confusing, as it comes out from different casual observations without a convincing analysis. The relevant discussion has not escaped the stereotype way of thinking that the economy and society of these two countries would have been better had emigration of educated persons not taken place, or had those who migrated just returned. The conclusion on policy for brain drain and brain return is that merely hindering the emigration of educated people or trying to motivate their return cannot by itself elevate education and research to higher quality levels and promote development and growth. Without simultaneously developing a friendly and comprehensive institutional and pragmatic framework, such measures are often ineffective or even counterproductive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]