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In November 2022, the global human population reached 8 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion by 2060. Theories, models, and evidence indicate that global population growth (GPG) increases the likelihood of many adverse outcomes, such as biodiversity loss, climate change, mass migrations, wars, and resource shortages. A small body of research indicates that many individuals are concerned about the effects of GPG, and these concerns are strongly related to the willingness to engage in mitigative and preventative actions. However, scientific understanding of the factors that influence GPG risk perceptions remains limited. To help address this research gap, we conducted a study of the perceived risk of GPG among UK and US residents (N = 1029) shortly after the "8 billion milestone." Our results confirmed that GPG is perceived as a moderate‐to‐high risk and these perceptions have a strong positive relationship with the willingness to engage in and support risk management actions. Our participants believed that the worst effects of GPG were yet to come but would largely be geographically and socially remote. Despite their willingness to engage in risk management actions, our participants reported low self‐efficacy and that governments (cf. individuals and communities) have the greatest capacity to influence GPG. Risk perceptions were strongly predicted by worldviews and were higher among our UK (cf. US) participants. We also found that the perceived benefits of GPG were low and found no evidence to suggest that risk perceptions were affected by exposure to media coverage of the 8 billion milestone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The report discusses global population changes from the Holocene beginning to 2023, via two Super Malthus (SM) scaling equations. SM-1 is the empowered exponential dependence: $$P\left(t\right)={P}_{0}exp{\left[\pm \left(t/\tau \right)\right]}^{\beta }$$ P t = P 0 e x p ± t / τ β , and SM-2 is the Malthus-type relation with the time-dependent growth rate $$r(t)$$ r ( t ) or relaxation time τ $$(t)=1/r(t)$$ ( t ) = 1 / r ( t ) : $$P\left(t\right)={P}_{0}exp\left(r\left(t\right)\times t\right)={P}_{0}exp\left[\tau \left(t\right)/t\right]$$ P t = P 0 e x p r t × t = P 0 e x p τ t / t . Population data from a few sources were numerically filtered to obtain a 'smooth' dataset, allowing the distortions-sensitive and derivative-based analysis. The test recalling SM-1 equation revealed the essential transition near the year 1970 (population: ~ 3 billion): from the compressed exponential behavior ( $$\beta >1)$$ β > 1 ) to the stretched exponential one ( $$\beta

The report discusses global population changes from the Holocene beginning to 2023, via two Super Malthus (SM) scaling equations. SM-1 is the empowered exponential dependence: P t = P 0 e x p ± t / τ β , and SM-2 is the Malthus-type relation with the time-dependent growth rate r (t) or relaxation time τ (t) = 1 / r (t) : P t = P 0 e x p r t × t = P 0 e x p τ t / t . Population data from a few sources were numerically filtered to obtain a 'smooth' dataset, allowing the distortions-sensitive and derivative-based analysis. The test recalling SM-1 equation revealed the essential transition near the year 1970 (population: ~ 3 billion): from the compressed exponential behavior ( β > 1) to the stretched exponential one ( β < 1 ). For SM-2 dependence, linear changes of τ T during the Industrial Revolutions period, since ~ 1700, led to the constrained critical behavior P t = P 0 e x p b ′ t / T C - t , where T C ≈ 2216 is the extrapolated year of the infinite population. The link to the 'hyperbolic' von Foerster Doomsday equation is shown. Results are discussed in the context of complex systems physics, the Weibull distribution in extreme value theory, and significant historic and prehistoric issues revealed by the distortions-sensitive analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In November 2022, the global human population reached 8 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion by 2060. Theories, models, and evidence indicate that global population growth (GPG) increases the likelihood of many adverse outcomes, such as biodiversity loss, climate change, mass migrations, wars, and resource shortages. A small body of research indicates that many individuals are concerned about the effects of GPG, and these concerns are strongly related to the willingness to engage in mitigative and preventative actions. However, scientific understanding of the factors that influence GPG risk perceptions remains limited. To help address this research gap, we conducted a study of the perceived risk of GPG among UK and US residents (N = 1029) shortly after the "8 billion milestone." Our results confirmed that GPG is perceived as a moderate-to-high risk and these perceptions have a strong positive relationship with the willingness to engage in and support risk management actions. Our participants believed that the worst effects of GPG were yet to come but would largely be geographically and socially remote. Despite their willingness to engage in risk management actions, our participants reported low self-efficacy and that governments (cf. individuals and communities) have the greatest capacity to influence GPG. Risk perceptions were strongly predicted by worldviews and were higher among our UK (cf. US) participants. We also found that the perceived benefits of GPG were low and found no evidence to suggest that risk perceptions were affected by exposure to media coverage of the 8 billion milestone., (© 2024 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)

The grand challenges of our time—climate change, biodiversity losses, and global non-communicable disease rates—underscore that humanity and the planet are in crisis. Planetary health provides a unifying concept wherein efforts toward remediation and survival can be concentrated. Evidence derived from the animal kingdom and from human demography suggest that there is cause for optimism in planetary health. With proper navigation, a transition toward a new epoch—one of symbiotic flourishing—is possible. Responses to the current challenges can usher in a new reality, one in which the core value is the well-being of all. This paper presents the philosophies and perspectives of renown biophilosopher, Jonas Salk, who—after developing the first effective vaccine to prevent polio, one of the great achievements in public health—expanded his vision beyond the prevention of individual diseases to that of addressing the basic problems of humankind. This vision is very much in line with our current understanding of and approach to planetary health. In response to changing conditions, planetary limits, and evolutionary pressure, new values, new communities, and new modes of interacting will likely emerge and be integrated with developments in science, technology, economics, the arts, and international relations, resulting in our survival and enhanced health and well-being.

The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well-documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.-based study that examined respondents' risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate-to-high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grand challenges of our time—climate change, biodiversity losses, and global non-communicable disease rates—underscore that humanity and the planet are in crisis. Planetary health provides a unifying concept wherein efforts toward remediation and survival can be concentrated. Evidence derived from the animal kingdom and from human demography suggest that there is cause for optimism in planetary health. With proper navigation, a transition toward a new epoch—one of symbiotic flourishing—is possible. Responses to the current challenges can usher in a new reality, one in which the core value is the well-being of all. This paper presents the philosophies and perspectives of renown biophilosopher, Jonas Salk, who—after developing the first effective vaccine to prevent polio, one of the great achievements in public health—expanded his vision beyond the prevention of individual diseases to that of addressing the basic problems of humankind. This vision is very much in line with our current understanding of and approach to planetary health. In response to changing conditions, planetary limits, and evolutionary pressure, new values, new communities, and new modes of interacting will likely emerge and be integrated with developments in science, technology, economics, the arts, and international relations, resulting in our survival and enhanced health and well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well-documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.-based study that examined respondents' risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate-to-high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research., (© 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.)