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We aim to use an Artificial Intelligence Approach to evaluate and improve models for probabilistic inferences. We will collect a large data set of different choices in randomly generated probabilistic inference tasks and fit a multi-layer neural network excluding and including interindividual differences to the data. This should provide an upper-limit estimation of how well choices can be predicted. We compare the predictive power of various common decision models in this context (including: Take-The-Best Heuristic, Equal Weight Heuristic, Weighted Additive Strategy corrected / uncorrected, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction Model for Decision Making with P = 1.9) against the upper-limit estimation. By systematically excluding and including information from/to the fitting of the neural network, we will investigate which information is necessary to predict behavior. We will furthermore evaluate how well the various models can predict process variables, specifically response time and confidence.

In addition to securing gender equality, legislators claim that preferential selection will also have positive effects on corporate performance by, for example, increasing the quality of group decision-making. Previous research on preferential selection has primarily focused on individual task performance whereas the evidence on the effects on group behaviors is scarce. We plan to investigate whether preferential selection of women has an effect on the quality of group decision-making in male-dominated domains and shed light on the underlying mechanisms. Specifically, we will focus on the evaluation of men’s and women’s performance in a group task and the perceived fairness of the procedure applied to the group after performance-based vs. merit-based selection.

Study 3: This project investigates self-other differences in risky choices using a differentiated approach of simultaneous parameter estimation that integrates and tests components of three relevant theories in the field: Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992), Construal Level Theory (Trope & Liberman, 2010), and the Risk as Feelings Hypothesis (Loewenstein et al., 2001). By manipulating the target for whom the decision is made (i.e. self vs. a close friend vs. another participant in the study), I examine the effects of psychological distance via social distance on risk preferences, characterized by the CPT parameters alpha, lambda, gamma and phi.

This project is the central platform for the Network of (German-speaking) Open Science Initiatives (Netzwerk der Open-Science-Initiativen, NOSI). We're providing protocols, links, and resources that might be of interest to others interested in Open Science.

Ingroup bias in prosocial behaviour is well-established in psychology (Balliet & Van Lange, 2013). Cross-country interactions are not different in that regard: several cross-cultural studies using nationally representative samples and behavioural measures of cooperation consistently find evidence of national ingroup favouritism (Fiedler et al., 2018; Romano et al., 2017). Such biases are typically exacerbated when the groups are in conflict (Campbell, 1965; Esses et al., 2005; Sherif et al., 1961). The ongoing war in Ukraine is likely the largest and most consequential international conflict in Europe since World War II. This brutal and unprovoked aggression toward a neighbouring country made Russia a pariah state. The United Nations General Assembly Resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was supported by 141 countries, with only 4 countries besides Russia voting against. The response of the European Union was unequivocal: EU imposed harsh economic sanctions on Russia, freezing its national reserves, and is currently discussing a possibility of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, which was impossible to imagine until recently. More than 5 million refugees fled Ukraine for neighbouring European countries. The war dominates the news feeds. Obviously, this is a salient intergroup conflict that would undoubtedly impact the way Europeans perceive Russians and the extent to which they are willing to cooperate with them. On the other side, Russian society is deeply divided on this issue. In the first days after the invasion begun, more than 1 million Russians signed a petition demanding an end to the war. Thousands more signed collective open letters protesting the war (scientists, doctors, teachers, priests, etc.). Despite the draconian laws put in place to silence the opposition, tens of thousands of people across the country took to the streets to protest. More than 15.000 people were arrested since then. What is more important for prosocial intergroup behaviour in a situation of severe intergroup conflict between nations: shared nationality or shared moral stance on the specific issue that underlines the conflict, in this case, on the war? Evidence from crossed categorization studies suggests that shared ingroup membership on the second dimension of categorization can reduce bias (Crisp & Hewstone, 2007). In the current study, we apply the crossed categorization paradigm to the intersection of nationality and position on the war. This study will contribute to our understanding of the role of shared morality in intergroup behaviour. The study will be conducted in Germany.

Study 2: This project investigates self-other differences in risky choices using a differentiated approach of simultaneous parameter estimation that integrates and tests components of three relevant theories in the field: Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992), Construal Level Theory (Trope & Liberman, 2010), and the Risk as Feelings Hypothesis (Loewenstein et al., 2001). By manipulating the target for whom the decision is made (i.e. self vs. another participant in the study), I examine the effects of psychological distance via social distance on risk preferences, characterized by the CPT parameters alpha, lambda, gamma and phi.

An intuition of ambivalence in cognition is particularly strong for complex decisions, for which the merits and demerits of different options are poorly matched. Yet ambivalence has been relatively underexplored both empirically and theoretically. We examined an experimental paradigm which tasked participants with an ambivalent question, while monitoring attentional dynamics concerning the information relevant to each option in different Areas of Interest (AOIs). We developed two dynamical models for describing eye tracking curves, for each response separately. The models incorporated a drift mechanism towards the various options, as in standard drift diffusion theory. In addition, they included a mechanism for intrinsic oscillation, which competed with the drift process and undermined eventual stabilization of the dynamics. The two models varied in the range of drift processes postulated. Higher support was observed for the simpler model, which only included drifts from an uncertainty state to either of two certainty states. In addition, model parameters could be weakly related to the eventual decision, complementing our knowledge of the way eye tracking structure relates to decision (notably the gaze cascade effect).

Using a pre-existing data set (Study 1; N = 1791) including participants from 10 different countries (Sweden, Spain, Japan, China, US, Russia, Chile, Mexico, Colombia, and Indonesia) and an additional sample (to be collected) from the United States (Study 2; target sample size: N = 300), this project aims to test the prediction of Social Role Theory, that the division of labor determines gender role beliefs.

We investigate participants’ perception of risks of the Corona crisis as well as their determinants and consequences. We also investigate how well individuals are able to forecast the development of the crisis and who is particularly good in that. This is a replication an extension of a previous study (Risk Perception in times of Corona) with a representative sample.

Collection of Datasets

To avoid sexual discrimination, certain countries have affected a legal quota regulation forcing enterprises to increase the women's share (e.g. Norway, or Germany for boards of management). However, aside from expected positive consequences like an increase of performance or creativity due to hightened diversity, possible negative outcomes have hardly been examined. This research examines the relationship between the implementation of a women's quota and cooperative behavior among team members. Using a social dilemma task, we examine if there's a difference in cooperative behavior, depending on whether women became team members based solely on the quota, or on their performance in a foregoing task. Potential mediating effects of perceived fairness are examined as well.

With the present research we aim to subject competing hypotheses derived from the Social Identity Approach and the Theory of Bounded Generalized Reciprocity to empirical testing. Specifically, we investigate ingroup favoritism in cooperation by comparing cooperation towards (national) ingroup vs. (national) outgroup members dependent on whether the outgroup has been made salient before interacting with the ingroup.

We investigate participants’ perception of risks of the Corona crisis as well as their determinants and consequences. We also investigate how well individuals are able to forecast the development of the crisis and who is particularly good in that.