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Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090–2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological ‘rules’ for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Large-scale commercialization of the Haber–Bosch (HB) process is resulting in intensification of nitrogen (N) fertilizer use worldwide. Globally N fertilizer use is far outpacing that of phosphorus (P) fertilizer. Much of the increase in N fertilizers is also now in the form of urea, a reduced form of N. Incorporation of these fertilizers into agricultural products is inefficient leading to significant environmental pollution and aquatic eutrophication. Of particular concern is the increased occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in waters receiving nutrient enriched runoff. Many phytoplankton causing HABs have physiological adaptive strategies that make them favored under conditions of elevated N : P conditions and supply of chemically reduced N (ammonium, urea). We propose that the HB-HAB link is a function of (1) the inefficiency of incorporation of N fertilizers in the food supply chain, the leakiness of the N cycle from crop to table, and the fate of lost N relative to P to the environment; and (2) adaptive physiology of many HABs to thrive in environments in which there is excess N relative to classic nutrient stoichiometric proportions and where chemically reduced forms of N dominate. The rate of HAB expansion is particularly pronounced in China where N fertilizer use has escalated very rapidly, where soil retention is declining, and where blooms have had large economic and ecological impacts. There, in addition to increased use of urea and high N : P based fertilizers overall, escalating aquaculture production adds to the availability of reduced forms of N, as does atmospheric deposition of ammonia. HABs in both freshwaters and marginal seas in China are highly related to these overall changing N loads and ratios. Without more aggressive N control the future outlook in terms of HABs is likely to include more events, more often, and they may also be more toxic.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are often associated with eutrophication of coastal waters and estuaries. However, identifying quantitative relationships between nutrient input and proliferation of specific algal species is very challenging and complex. The complexity arises from the diversity of sources, forms and fluxes of nutrients both exported into and cycled within the system, the diversity of algal mechanisms for acquiring nutrients, and the interaction of the target harmful species with other members of the food web. Even more challenging is the development of forecasts and predictions, both on the short term and on the long term. Short term scales (days to weeks) are necessary for managers to prepare for, and respond to events; longer scales are needed to enable strategic planning to prevent HAB events, mitigate their impacts, or estimate the interactive effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change. To address these needs the HAB modeling community will need to engage with climate scientists (assess climate change scenarios), marine ecologists (describe organism ecophysiology), invasive species experts, watershed modelers and hydrologists (estimate future changes in the land derived inputs), and socio economists, managers and policy makers (define future land use scenarios and to interpret results in a policy context).

Published

Nutrient enrichment of both land and water is a result of increased human population growth and many associated activities for food and energy production, and discharge of associated sewage and waste. The end result of nutrient loading to inland and coastal waters is often an increase in algal biomass, frequently dominated by one or more species or species groups; this process is eutrophication. An important consequence of eutrophication is the increased prevalence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that develop high biomass, cause fish kills, intoxicate seafood, result in oxygen depletion, and alter trophic interactions. Nutrient enrichment can stimulate HABs not only directly by stimulation of growth and biomass, but indirectly in subtle, but nevertheless significant, ways through alterations in food web and ecosystem dynamics. The interactions of these alterations on HAB proliferation is only beginning to be understood. Published