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The purpose of this report is to present the main components of fire danger assessments and a broad assessment of fire danger for the main habitat types in Scotland. The aim of this work is to provide insight on the current wildfire regime in Scotland and the information needed to conduct fire danger assessments for the main habitat or fuel types present in Scotland. In particular, the objective of this work is to use literature findings and results of a spatial analysis of land cover and burnt area layers to assess patterns of fire occurrence and of fuel type composition and assess the efficiency of fire danger indices for predicting fire occurrence in different habitat types., This report has been produced by the D5-2 Climate Change Impacts on Natural Capital Project funded by the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Strategic Research Programme (2022-2027).

This report is a product of the Scottish Government Strategic Research Programme project JHI-D5-2 ‘Climate Change Impacts on Natural Capital’. The purpose of this report is to present spatial and temporal information on climate extremes, presented as a range of indices, in Scotland since 1960 and how they are projected to change in the future. It also demonstrates the increases in analytical and visualisation capabilities developed within the project. The aim is to present a set of maps on general summaries of extremes (seven indices) to illustrate the temporal and spatial variability of changes to the climate and what this might mean for impacts on Natural Capital. We present mapped evidence of observed trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature across Scotland between 1960 – 1989 and 1990 – 2019. Using data from the UKCP18 climate projections, estimates are made and presented as maps and charts of how extremes may change in the future. The objective of the research presented is to support assessments of the impacts of climate change on Natural Capital assets. Approach: we compare the historical trends in a range of extreme climate Indicators that are derived using observed precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from 1990 – 2019 with those from a 1960 – 1989 baseline period. Data from the UKCP18 climate projections (12 individual model simulations) for two time periods, 2020 – 2049 and 2050 – 2079, are compared with the observed 1960 – 1989 baseline to identify potential future changes. The 12 projections are based on the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) but consist of a range of possible climate change from 1°C increase in temperature and an increase in precipitation total, to 3.7°C and a reduction in precipitation., This report is aligned with the 'Climate trends and future projections in Scotland' report. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7657945 https://www.hutton.ac.uk/sites/default/files/files/D2_1a%20Climate%20trends%20summary%20report%20FINAL%206-12-22.pdf

Publication from the Healthy Soils project outlining soils research through the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) funded Strategic Research Programme. The Soil Sentinel will be published very 4 months throughout the project duration, 2022-2027.

The powerpoint presentations used for the Ecosystem and Landuse Policy Engagement Group (ELPEG) May 2022 as part of the RESAS strategic research programme

This project developed a Bayesian Belief Network for English uplands, representing key system components and relationships on the basis of the best available evidence. Given the policy relevance of managed and wild fire, a rapid evidence synthesis was conducted to assess factors influencing the behaviour of peatland users and managers in relation to wildfire, which informed a wildfire sub-model. By considering four scenarios, it was possible to consider how changes in the availability of public funding and/or carbon finance might alter the overall utility of uplands and provision of ecosystem services. users and managers in relation to wildfire, which informed a wildfire sub- model. By considering four scenarios (below), it was possible to consider how changes in the availability of public funding and/or carbon finance might alter the overall utility of uplands and provision of specific ecosystem services. users and managers in relation to wildfire, which informed a wildfire sub- model. By considering four scenarios (below), it was possible to consider how changes in the availability of public funding and/or carbon finance might alter the overall utility of uplands and provision of specific ecosystem services. users and managers in relation to wildfire, which informed a wildfire sub- model. By considering four scenarios (below), it was possible to consider how changes in the availability of public funding and/or carbon finance might alter the overall utility of uplands and provision of specific ecosystem services.

This poster was presented at the BioSS General Meeting in November 2019.

Soils represent the largest reservoir of organic carbon (OC) on land. Upon mobilization, this OC is either returned to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (CO2) or transported and ultimately locked into (marine) sediments, where it will act as a long-term sink of atmospheric CO2. These fluxes of soil OC are, however, difficult to evaluate, mostly due to the lack of a soil-specific tracer. In this study, a suite of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), which are membrane lipids of soil bacteria, is tested as specific tracers for soil OC from source (soils under arable land, ley, grassland, and woodland) to sink (Loe Pool sediments) in a small catchment located in southwest England (i.e. Carminowe Creek draining into Loe Pool). The analysis of brGDGTs in catchment soils reveals that their distribution is not significantly different across different land use types (p>0.05) and thus does not allow land-use-specific soil contributions to Loe Pool sediments to be traced. Furthermore, the significantly higher contribution of 6-methyl brGDGT isomers in creek sediments (isomerization ratio (IR) = 0.48±0.10, mean ± standard deviation (SD); p) compared to that in catchment soils (IR = 0.28±0.11) indicates that the initial soil signal is substantially altered by brGDGT produced in situ. Similarly, the riverine brGDGT signal appears to be overwritten by lacustrine brGDGTs in the lake sedimentary record, indicated by remarkably lower methylation of branched tetraethers (MBT5ME′=0.46±0.02 in creek bed sediments and 0.38±0.01 in lake core sediments; p) and a higher degree of cyclization (DC = 0.23±0.02 in creek bed sediments and 0.32±0.08 in lake core sediments). Thus, in this small catchment, brGDGTs do not allow us to trace soil OC transport. Nevertheless, the downcore changes in the degree of cyclization and the abundance of isoprenoid GDGTs produced by methanogens in the Loe Pool sediment do reflect local environmental conditions over the past 100 years and have recorded the eutrophication history of the lake.