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Emerging economies often establish commodity futures markets to discover price signals, manage price risks and improve market integration, but establishing a futures market may not be feasible for agricultural perishables. In this study, we evaluated the function of the world's first fresh fruit futures contract for apples. Combining partial cointegration with state-space modelling, we derived time-varying price discovery metrics for the apple futures market. Our findings revealed a limited and time-varying dominance of price discovery by the futures market, while a substantial share of price discovery occurred in the spot market. Moreover, poor convergence of disaggregated spot prices to the futures price suggests that commercial traders in the apple supply chain tended to focus more on the spot market than on the futures market. Thus, emerging economies should be cautious about the new establishment of futures markets for agricultural perishables. Future research using more specific data on the spot market may provide a better insight on the limited function of the futures market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a special feature on the functioning of international agricultural markets. This feature is motivated by the increased interest in the functioning of commodity markets raised by unprecedented price turbulences since 2008, major structural changes through changed roles of emerging economies and related concerns regarding food security. We argue that the delineation of non-functioning markets from markets that adequately adjusted to adverse framework conditions lacks theoretical foundation. We discuss the relevance of some results on institutions for agricultural markets in emerging and transition countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics that span a topical range covering price formation on world and domestic markets, market power and trade policy modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transition was characterized by massive structural changes in most economic sectors in Ukraine. This is especially true for the dairy sector. Several countervailing developments took place under transition that affected the dairy industry. Interregional trade became feasible, the importance of milk delivered by households increased significantly, and most dairies became investor-owned companies. The latter point and the fact that the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine detected several price cartels in the industry lead us to offer that after transition, dairies were able to exercise oligopsony power toward dairy producers at the regional level. This paper estimates market structure models for raw milk in Ukraine using a translog production function for the processing sector at the national and regional level. The results suggest the existence of oligopsony power in three of 25 administrative regions in Ukraine, coupled with a potential deviation of procurement prices for raw milk from the value marginal product of raw milk ranging from 24.6% to 49.4%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standard double auctions perfectly mimic the neoclassical idea about the functioning of markets. The efficiency of the market outcome and speed of adjustment towards equilibrium have been studied in the literature to validate economic expectations. However, only a few real world examples outside the financial sector exist. In 2000, Germany implemented a sealed-bid double auction mechanism for trading milk quota. The two main features of this mechanism are: (1) a sealed-bid double auction that produces excess demands that are covered by state reserves free of charge, and (2) a variable price band that is used to exclude price bids above a certain range. To study these regulations a sealed-bid double auction experiment is simulated and run with students. It is shown that the regulations lead to significant losses in welfare that are caused by direct effects and by an imperfect adjustment of individual bidding behaviour. Further, learning effects throughout the experiments appear to be very limited. Thus, complex auction mechanisms may need to be thoroughly tested before being introduced in the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Studies investigating the effects of wheat export controls on the domestic market in the exporting country itself are scarce. This paper analyses the domestic market impact of wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine during the 2007/2008 global food crisis within a spatial price transmission approach. Using a Markov-switching vector error-correction model, we contrast our estimation for Russia and Ukraine with Germany and the USA, two countries that did not intervene in their wheat export markets. An explicit “crisis” regime during times of export controls is exclusively identified for Russia and Ukraine. We find that export restrictions temporarily reduced the degree of integration of Russian and Ukrainian domestic markets in world wheat markets, which pushed the growers prices below their long-run equilibrium level. Further, domestic markets were disconnected from their equilibrium and market instability increased. These effects were even more pronounced and long lasting in Ukraine (export quota) than in Russia (export tax). The negative market effects discouraged private investors, thereby preventing Russia and Ukraine from maximizing their grain potential and contributing to global food security. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Using rural household panel data from three Chinese provinces, this paper identifies determinants of long-term poverty and tests the duration dependence on the probability to leave poverty. Special emphasis is given to the selection of the poverty line and inter-regional differences across provinces. Results suggest that the majority of population seems to be only temporary poor. However, the probability to leave poverty for those who were poor is differently affected by poverty duration across provinces ranging from no duration dependence in Zhejiang to highly significant duration dependence in Yunnan. The number of nonworking family members, education, and several village characteristics seem to be the most important covariates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Whether the US Farm Bill 2008 has any impacts on china's agriculture, is highly related to the china's rural poverty alleviation and it deserves to be explored to see what will happen. According the existing empirical studies in the past, we expect that the US Farm Bill 2008 will exert an influence on the agricultural production and rural poverty in developing countries, especially china. In order to fully capture such an effect, we link two equilibrium models together: the multinational CGE model - GTAP and the china's partial equilibrium model -- the china's Agricultural Policy Simulation and Projection Model (CAPSiM). A scenario based on the US Farm Bill 2008 will be constructed and compared with the baseline. A more liberalized scenario is also built for the simulation. The results have shown that the US Farm Bill 2008 has a little positive impact on the china's farmer income, and that the more liberalized the policy is, the more china will benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This work is devoted to the analysis of the different labor market participation regimes of Chinese farm households over the reform process in the 1980s and 1990s. Using household data over the period 1986–2002 from the province Zhejiang, we apply a multinomial logit model to empirically examine household, farm, and regional characteristics affecting the probability that farmers participate in one of four alternative labor market regimes. As generally accepted, off-farm participation is the dominant form of farm households’ labor market participation. But rural households show additionally a significant impact on rural employment mainly linked with non-agricultural household business. Results suggest that labor market decisions are significantly related to several family, farm, and village characteristics. In particular, we find education to be a key determinant of participation. Furthermore, results point to a higher probability of female household members to take up off-farm work. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study examines the exit process of Western European farmers. Using a simple theoretical model of structural change, we examine empirically the impact of farm characteristics, macroeconomic conditions and policy intervention on farm exits during the 1990s. Econometric estimates using regional data for 110 regions in Western Europe indicate that exits from farming are strongly influenced by farm characteristics and policy conditions. In particular, exit rates are higher in regions with smaller farms and are closely related to production structures. Exit rates are lower in regions with more part-time farming, high subsidy payments and high relative price increases for agricultural outputs, indicating that off-farm income and government intervention slow down structural change in European agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is the first to develop food supply and demand projections over the 21st century for Uzbekistan by considering the combined effects of climate change and soil salinization. The study results suggest that rising summer temperatures and soil salinity will considerably reduce wheat production. Projections indicate that a large wheat supply–demand gap will emerge in the midterm, particularly under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. For the two more pessimistic scenarios, supply losses of about 24–29% are expected by the end of the century. Supply–demand gaps of up to 2.7 million tons of wheat would pose serious challenges to national food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of food price spikes are complex, and their impact on different countries varies depending on production levels and the varied policies in place. Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus (CAC) region have implemented a wide range of reforms that vary in form and speed. The existing scientific literature reports about the consequences of price spikes in CAC; however, to date, a comparison of impact between those countries has not been made in terms of the entire supply chain perspective. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of the price spikes on the entire wheat supply chain for the first time in CAC and discusses the role of policies. Another contribution of this study is an evidence-based analysis of the role of policy reformation in maintaining food security under price shocks. Our results indicate a very limited effect of price interventions and trade restrictions on dampening wheat prices in all countries. We find that only trade diversification policy had a positive effect on reducing the level of price spikes, and thus it might be a suitable policy measure for maintaining food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia emerged as an important wheat exporter in recent years raising the question of how this will affect international wheat markets. In particular developing countries - the main destination of Russian wheat exports - could be harmed by aggressive pricing behaviour. This article analyses the exertion of price discrimination by Russian wheat exporting firms based on Krugman's pricing-to-market hypothesis. We apply Knetter's panel model to a firm-level dataset and find evidence for price-discriminating behaviour by Russian firms in 25 out of 61 destination countries over the period 2002-2011. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate cost pass-through rates based on data for store-level retail prices and wholesale costs for up to 90 different brands of milk sold in 327 retail stores across Germany. The abundance of the data allows us to identify heterogeneity in pass-through across retailers and relate it to underlying explanatory factors such as retailer market power, measures of consumer search and menu costs. Results from a threshold-error-correction-process clearly provide empirical support for the ‘rockets and feathers’ phenomenon: prices increase more quickly than they decrease. In contrast to much of the existing literature, which explains the ‘rockets and feathers’ phenomenon as a result of retailers exercising market power, we find the opposite result: the degree of asymmetry in prices is negatively related to market power (decreases with the Lerner-Index). Our measure of (cross-product) search costs does not account for observable differences in asymmetric cost pass-through rates between products. The ‘rockets and feathers’ observation is better explained by product-specific differences in menu costs (‘mistake costs’) and costs associated with stock-outs which can lead to a loss of consumer goodwill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese farm households (N = 240) were interviewed to understand some of the factors affecting their adoption of a water-saving technology called the Ground Cover Rice Production System (GCRPS). A logit model was established on the basis of a survey to estimate the determinants of adoption and to simulate impacts of changes in these determinants on adoption potential. There are no significant influences of age and number of laborers on the probability of GCRPS adoption. Male farm managers had higher adoption probabilities than female farm managers. Large farms had higher adoption probability than small farms. Off-farm occupation of farm managers had negative influences on adoption. Education had complex impacts on GCRPS adoption in China. The farm manager with middle school education had low probability in GCRPS adoption, whereas the farm manager with primary education and high education had high probability of adoption. Previous experience with GCRPS had a positive impact on adoption. Membership in extension service was an important driving factor of adoption. Farmers with high income showed a high probability to adopt GCRPS. Soil type was also an important determinant in GCRPS adoption, probability of GCRPS adoption was very low at red soil, but high at yellow and brown soil. Low reliability of irrigation water supply led to a high rate of adoption, whereas high reliability of water supply led to a low rate of adoption. Nous avons interrogés des ménages agricoles chinois (N = 240) pour comprendre certains des facteurs qui influencent l'adoption de la technologie d'économie de l'eau appelée système de culture du riz sous couvert (Ground Cover Rice Production System – GCRPS). Nous avons établi un modèle logit fondé sur une enquête pour déterminer les facteurs qui favorisent l'adoption de la technologie et pour simuler l'impact d'une modification de ces facteurs sur le potentiel d'adoption. L'âge et le nombre de travailleurs n'ont pas eu d'impact significatif sur la probabilité d'adoption de la technologie. Les probabilités d'adoption étaient plus élevées chez les gestionnaires de ferme masculins que chez les gestionnaires de ferme féminins, et aussi plus élevées dans les fermes de grande taille que dans celles de petite taille. L'occupation d'un emploi hors ferme a eu un impact négatif sur l'adoption de la technologie. La scolarité a eu un impact complexe sur l'adoption de la technologie en Chine. Les gestionnaires de ferme ayant reçu un enseignement intermédiaire présentaient une faible probabilité d'adoption, tandis que ceux ayant reçu un enseignement primaire et secondaire présentaient une probabilité d'adoption élevée. Les expériences antérieures avec le GCRPS ont eu un impact positif sur l'adoption. L'adhésion à un service de vulgarisation a été un important facteur de motivation. Les producteurs à revenus élevés ont montré une forte probabilité d'adoption. Le type de sol était aussi un facteur important: la probabilité d'adoption était très faible dans le cas du sol rouge, mais élevée dans le cas des sols jaune et brun. La fiabilité peu élevée de l'alimentation en eau d'irrigation a entraîné un fort taux d'adoption, tandis qu'une fiabilité très élevée a entraîné un faible taux d'adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To secure effective and sustainable climate change policies, it is of the utmost importance to create synergies between socioeconomic and environmental development goals. Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs are being promoted as a suitable mechanism furthering, among others, carbon offsetting and poverty reduction in ecologically fragile areas of developing countries. Rural households are compensated for the loss of property and business income through income transfers and potential job opportunities connected to environmental programs. While the potential pro-poor effects of such policies are well recognized, the impact of PES on extremely poor households has not been systematically reviewed. Drawing on a pooled cross-sectional dataset of 5225 households in the Province of Sichuan, this paper analyzes the income and distributional effects among poor households in rural China participating in a forest carbon sink (FCS) program. To be able to make causal inferences, we employ an Instrumental Variable (IV) approach to control for potential endogeneity and self-selection. Our results indicate a strong need to adjust the PES program: While moderately poor rural households benefit from program participation, extremely poor rural households, in fact, suffer net losses. The main reason is that income reduction resulting from limited access to forest resources is compensated mainly via wage income from participating in forest tending work. Extremely poor households with low labor ability cannot make use of these job opportunities, and thus they'll not only fail to benefit but even incur losses from a PES program. While PES programs can be a viable tool for poverty reduction in underdeveloped regions due to their overall pro-poorness, they need to be accompanied by additional benefits for extremely poor rural households to avoid net losses among marginalized population groups especially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest Farm Carbon Sink (FFCS) projects are one of the effective ways to achieve carbon neutrality and mitigate global warming. Though the existing literature has widely discussed the effect of FFCS on the allocation of agricultural factors, such as land, labor employment structure and income structure, little is known about whether FFCS projects could have an effect on agricultural development. Based on the panel data of 140 counties in Sichuan province, China, from 2002 to 2018, we examined the causal effect on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), and revealed their dynamic effect and underlying mechanisms. Propensity score matching and the difference in difference (PSM-DID) method were used to address the endogeneity problem of FFCS implementation. Results showed that FFCS projects increased agricultural TFP by 1.7%–2.4%. Health, saving and industrial structure were the important channels through which FFCS projects affect agricultural TFP. Our findings suggest that policies promoting FFCS projects can increase agricultural TFP while achieving environmental goals—a win-win situation. • The causal effect of FFCS projects on agricultural development was examined. • A theoretical framework was constructed to quantify FFCS projects and agricultural development. • FFCS projects significantly increased agricultural TFP by 1.7%–4.9%. • FFCS projects affect agricultural TFP in short term but not in the medium and long term. • Health, saving and industrial structure were the important channels underlying the effect of FFCS projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We extend previous modelling approaches to identify domestic price effects of export controls. We allow for smooth transition between free-trade price transmission regimes and those under export restricting regimes, using a smooth transition cointegration ( STC) approach, rather than the more common assumption that regime changes are abrupt. Our approach has the advantage that the switch in the price transmission regime may be induced not only by an actual but also by an expected policy change. Results confirm the gradual nature of the transition between the regimes, which reflect trader heterogeneity and wheat storage decisions. We find that the STC approach outperforms alternative model approaches in terms of both regime classification and goodness of fit, when explaining Ukrainian domestic wheat prices under export controls. In particular, application of the Markov-switching error correction model ( MSECM) to the same data generates results which do not reflect any identifiable economic reality (in contrast to Götz et al., ). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes have taken place in the world wheat market in the last decade. Russia, a former net wheat importer, has become a leading exporter with a world market share of 11.2% in 2009. This increasing importance and the discussion about the establishment of a grain-OPEC consisting of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia has raised the issue of pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters. Although there are several studies on the pricing behaviour of Canadian and US wheat exporters, there is none so far for Russian wheat exporters. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters, explicitly taking account of the export tax imposed between 2007 and 2008. We employ a pricing-to-market (PTM) model on quarterly Russian wheat-export data, covering the period from 2002 to 2010 and 25 export destinations. Our findings indicate that (i) Russian wheat exporters exercised PTM in only a few importing countries over the whole time period, and (ii) PTM behaviour was more pronounced in the aftermath of the export tax period (i.e. 2008-2010) than before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an introduction to the special feature on agriculture-related issues in the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contained in this issue of Journal of Agricultural Economics. The special feature is motivated by the increased interest which these countries have received since the turn of the millennium and by the significance of agriculture in their development. It considers economic and social development in BRICs, their integration in world agricultural trade as well as environmental concerns. This article presents key figures on economic, social and agricultural features in BRICs and compares them across countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics likely to be crucial for further development across BRICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Many educational systems have struggled with the question about how best to give out financial aid. In particular, if students do not know the amount of financial aid that they can receive before they make a decision about where to go to college and what major to study, it may distort their decision. This study utilizes an experiment (implemented by the authors as a Randomized Control Trial) to analyze whether or not an alternative way of providing financial aid—by providing an early commitment on financial aid during the student''s senior year of high school instead of after entering college—affects the college decision making of poor students in rural China. We find that if early commitments are made early enough; and they are large enough, students will make less distorting college decisions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]