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A central debate in ecology has been the long running discussion on the role of apex predators in affecting the abundance and dynamics of their prey. In terrestrial systems, research has primarily relied on correlational approaches, due to the challenge of implementing robust experiments with replication and appropriate controls. A consequence of this is that we largely suffer from a lack of mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics of interacting species that can be surprisingly complex.Mechanistic models offer an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of some of this complexity. We present a bioenergetic mechanistic model of a tri-trophic system where the primary vegetation resource follows a seasonal growth function, and the herbivore and carnivore species are modelled using two integral projection models (IPMs) with body mass as the phenotypic trait. Within each IPM, the demographic functions are structured according to bioenergetic principles, describing how animals acquire and transform resources into body mass, energy reserves and breeding potential. We parameterise this model to reproduce the population dynamics of grass, elk and wolves in northern Yellowstone (USA), and investigate the impact of wolf reintroduction on the system.Our model generated predictions that closely matched the observed population sizes of elk and wolf in Yellowstone prior to and post wolf reintroduction. The introduction of wolves into our basal grass-elk bioenergetic model resulted in a population of 99 wolves, and a reduction in elk numbers by 61% (from 14,948 to 5,823) at equilibrium. In turn, vegetation biomass increased by approximately 25% in the growing season and more than 3-fold in the non-growing season. The addition of wolves to the model caused the elk population to shift from being food-limited to being predator-limited, and had a stabilising effect on elk numbers across different years. Wolf predation also led to a shift in the phenotypic composition of the elk population, via a small increase in elk average body mass.Our model represents a novel approach to the study of predator-prey interactions. Explicitly considering and linking bioenergetics, population demography and body mass phenotypes can provide novel insights into the mechanisms behind complex ecosystem processes.

Body size variation is an enigma. We do not understand why species achieve the sizes they do, and this means we also do not understand the circumstances under which gigantism or dwarfism is selected. We develop size-structured integral projection models to explore evolution of body size and life history speed. We make few assumptions and keep models simple: all functions remain constant across models except for the one that describes development of body size with age. We set sexual maturity to occur when size attains 80% of the asymptotic size, which is typical of a large mammal, and allow negative density dependence to only affect either reproduction or juvenile survival. Fitness – the quantity that is maximized by adaptive evolution – is carrying capacity in our models, and we are consequently interested in how it changes with size at sexual maturity, and how this association varies with development rate. The simple models generate complex dynamics while providing insight into the circumstances when extremes of body size evolve. The direction of selection leading to either gigantism or dwarfism crucially depends on the proportion of the population that is sexually mature, which in turn depends on how the development function determines the survivorship schedule. The developmental trajectories consequently interact with size-specific survival or reproductive rates to determine the best life history and the optimal body size emerges from that interaction. These dynamics result in trade-offs between different components of the life history, with the form of the trade-off that emerges depending upon where in the life history density dependence operates most strongly. Empirical application of the approach we develop has potential to help explain the enigma of body size variation across the tree of life.

Background Human disturbance alters animal movement globally and infrastructure, such as roads, can act as physical barriers that impact behaviour across multiple spatial scales. In ungulates, roads can particularly hamper key ecological processes such as dispersal and migration, which ensure functional connectivity among populations, and may be particularly important for population performance in highly human-dominated landscapes. The impact of roads on some aspects of ungulate behaviour has already been studied. However, potential differences in response to roads during migration, dispersal and home range movements have never been evaluated. Addressing these issues is particularly important to assess the resistance of European landscapes to the range of wildlife movement processes, and to evaluate how animals adjust to anthropogenic constraints. Methods We analysed 95 GPS trajectories from 6 populations of European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) across the Alps and central Europe. We investigated how roe deer movements were affected by landscape characteristics, including roads, and we evaluated potential differences in road avoidance among resident, migratory and dispersing animals (hereafter, movement modes). First, using Net Squared Displacement and a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm, we classified individuals as residents, migrants or dispersers. We then identified the start and end dates of the migration and dispersal trajectories, and retained only the GPS locations that fell between those dates (i.e., during transience). Finally, we used the resulting trajectories to perform an integrated step selection analysis. Results We found that roe deer moved through more forested areas during the day and visited less forested areas at night. They also minimised elevation gains and losses along their movement trajectories. Road crossings were strongly avoided at all times of day, but when they occurred, they were more likely to occur during longer steps and in more forested areas. Road avoidance did not vary among movement modes and, during dispersal and migration, it remained high and consistent with that expressed during home range movements. Conclusions Roads can represent a major constraint to movement across modes and populations, potentially limiting functional connectivity at multiple ecological scales. In particular, they can affect migrating individuals that track seasonal resources, and dispersing animals searching for novel ranges.

Humans profoundly affect animal distributions by directly competing for space, not only transforming, but actively using their habitat. Anthropogenic disturbance is usually measured via structural proxies such as infrastructure and land use that overlook the impact of human presence, or functional disturbance. In this study, we propose a methodology unifying two paradigms, human mobility and animal movement, to fill this gap. We developed a novel spatially-explicit index of anthropic disturbance, the Cumulative Outdoor activity Index (COI), and validated it with ground truth observations derived from camera trapping (r = +0.63, p < 0.001). Building on previous work from Peters et al. (2015, Biol. Cons. 186, 123–133) on a Critically Endangered brown bear population in the Alps, we used Resource Selection Analysis to assess the influence of different forms of anthropogenic disturbance on the relative probability of habitat selection. The intensity of COI provided an effective measure of functional anthropogenic disturbance, and it outperformed all alternative and commonly-used proxies of structural disturbance in predicting bear habitat use. Our predictions suggest that brown bear shrinks its ecological niche as a consequence of intense human use of otherwise suitable habitat. These constraints may limit the potential range expansion of bears to establish a viable Alpine-Dinaric metapopulation. Conclusive conservation and future land use planning towards human-wildlife coexistence should account for the functional presence of humans on the landscape. The proposed COI could help determine where mitigation measures should be enforced.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) is one of the world's largest agricultural policies and the EU's longest-prevailing one. Originally focused mostly on supporting production and farm income, the CAP has progressively integrated instruments to support the environment. Nonetheless, there is considerable agreement among EU citizens that the CAP still does not do enough to address ongoing environmental degradation and climate change (92% of nonfarmers, 64% of farmers) (1). In May and June 2018, the European Commission (EC) published the financial plan and legislative proposal for the CAP post-2020 (2), prompting numerous proposed amendments that the newly elected European Parliament (EP) will now have to consider. With an eye toward the next and final reform stages, including budget discussions and “trilogue” negotiations between the EC, the Council, and the EP to begin in autumn 2019, we examine whether the proposed post-2020 CAP can address key sustainability issues and meet societal demands for higher environmental performance.

Context The preservation of denning habitat is paramount to the recovery of threatened bear populations because of the effect that den site disturbance can have on cub mortality. Understanding habitat suitability for denning can allow management efforts to be directed towards the regions where conservation interventions would be most effective. Aim We sought to identify the environmental and anthropogenic habitat variables associated with the presence of Eurasian brown bear (Ursus arctos) den sites in Croatia. Based on these associations, in order to inform future conservation decisions, we also sought to identify regions of high suitability for denning across Croatia. Methods Using the locations of 91 dens inhabited by bears between 1982 and 2011, we opted for the presence-only modelling option in software Maxent to determine the most important predictors of den presence, and thus predict the distribution of high-value denning habitat across Croatia. Key results We found that structural elements were the most important predictors, with ruggedness and elevation both relating positively to den presence. However, distance to nearest settlement was also positively associated with den presence. Conclusion We determine that there is considerable denning habitat value in areas with high and rugged terrain as well as areas with limited human activity. We suspect that high and rugged terrain contains a greater concentration of the karstic formations used for denning than lower-lying regions. Implications Our study presents the first habitat suitability model for brown bears in Croatia, and identifies core areas suitable for denning both within and outside the species’ current range. As such, it provides useful evidence for conservation decision making and the development of scientifically-based management plans. Our results also support the need for finer spatial scale studies that can reveal specific denning preferences of subpopulations.