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We present the first systematic, global stocktake of the academic literature on human adaptation. We screen 48,316 documents and identify 1,682 articles that present empirical research documenting human efforts to reduce risk from climate change and associated hazards. Coding and synthesizing this literature highlights that the overall extent of adaptation across global regions and sectors is low. Adaptations are largely local and incremental rather than transformative. Behavioural adjustments by individuals and households are more prevalent than any other type of response, largely motivated by drought and precipitation variability. Local governments and civil society are engaging in risk reduction across all sectors and regions, particularly in response to flooding. Urban technological and infrastructural adaptations to flood risk are prevalent in Europe, while shifts in farming practices dominate reporting from Africa and Asia. Despite increasing evidence of adaptation responses, evidence that these responses are reducing risks (observed and projected) remains limited.

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses. Determining progress in adaptation to climate change is challenging, yet critical as climate change impacts increase. A stocktake of the scientific literature on implemented adaptation now shows that adaptation is mostly fragmented and incremental, with evidence lacking for its impact on reducing risk.

Perennial commodity crops, such as coffee, often play a large role globally in agricultural markets and supply chains and locally in livelihoods, poverty reduction, and biodiversity. Yet, the production of spatial information on these crops are often overlooked in favor of annual food crops. Remote sensing detection of coffee faces a particular set of challenges due to persistent cloud cover in the tropical “coffee belt,” hilly topography in coffee growing regions, diversity of coffee growing systems, and spectral similarity to other tree crops and agricultural land. Looking at the major coffee growing region in Dak Lak, Vietnam, we integrate multi-temporal 10 m optical Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 SAR data in order to map three coffee production systems: i) open-canopy sun coffee, ii) intercropped and other shaded coffee and iii) newly planted or young coffee. Leveraging Google Earth Engine (GEE), we compute five sets of features in order to best enhance separability between coffee and other land cover and within coffee production systems. The features include Sentinel-2 dry and wet season composites, Sentinel-1 texture features, Sentinel-1 spatiotemporal metrics, and topographic features. Using a random forest classification algorithm, we produce a 9-class land cover map including our three coffee production classes and a binary coffee/non-coffee map. The binary map has an overall accuracy of 89% and the three coffee production systems have user accuracies of 65, 56, 71% for sun coffee, intercropped coffee and newly planted coffee, respectively. This is a first effort at large-scale distinction of within-crop production styles and has implications across many applications. The binary coffee map can be used as a high-resolution crop mask, whereas the detailed land cover map can inform monitoring of deforestation dynamics, biodiversity, sustainability certification and implementation of climate adaptation strategies. This work offers a scalable approach to integrating optical and radar Sentinel data for production of spatially explicit agricultural information and contributes particularly to tree crop and agroforestry mapping, which often is overlooked in between agricultural and forestry sciences.

Grasslands are subject to degradation in arid and semi-arid areas as the result of various pressures, including climate change. Therefore, spatial and temporal monitoring of vegetation cover fluctuation is needed for better understanding and management of natural resources to sustain livelihoods that depend on these grasslands. In this study, changes in vegetation cover were monitored over 1985–2015, using vegetation indices derived from the Landsat images in Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiyari province, Iran. The percentage of vegetation cover was recorded from sampling plots in the study areas and vegetation indices were calculated from Landsat data over the study period. The relationship between vegetation cover and climate parameters (temperature (T) and precipitation (P)) was determined from precipitation maps, produced from spatial interpolation of weather stations data and temperature maps, produced by regression equation established between DEM-derived elevation and temperature. Then, a regression equation between climate variables and vegetation cover over a period of 30 years’ period was developed and applied on projected climatic variables for the 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Green Vegetation Index (GVI) was found to be the best index for estimation of vegetation cover from the correlation coefficient (r = 0.79) and model RMSE (1.98). The GVI fluctuation was associated with the fluctuation in climate variables, and this was especially evident in especially dry years (1999, 2001 and 2012). From the difference between current and future vegetation cover maps, future vegetation cover change maps were produced and vulnerable areas most likely to be impacted by climate change were identified. The results predict that vegetation cover will be reduced under both scenarios, mostly in the eastern parts of the study region, while 5–25% of vegetation cover increases are projected for some areas in the western parts of the region. Further analysis showed that currently, oak forest covers large swaths of the western parts adjacent to grasslands, but forest degradation will lead to increase of grassland areas at the expense of oak forests. Overall, substantial loss of vegetation cover is predicted in the central parts and extends to the southern parts of the province. Loss of vegetation cover would pave the way to conversion of grassland to other non-productive cover types for pastoral systems. Appropriate management programs and adaptation strategies should be designed and implemented to reduce climate change impacts on grasslands in the identified vulnerable areas.