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Eliminating malaria locally requires a surveillance system with high sensitivity and specificity to detect its presence without ambiguity. Traditionally, the absence of locally acquired cases for three consecutive years is used to estimate the probability of elimination. However, proving the absence of infection using routine health data is challenging as even one missed infection can lead to incorrect inferences. This could result in premature termination of control efforts and resurgences. To address this, we propose an innovative method for probabilistically demonstrating the absence of malaria. Using spatio-temporally extensive but imperfect reports of malaria, we developed a novel statistical framework to model both the state process (malaria transmission in the population) and the observation process (cases detected by the health system). Our state-space model provides a robust estimate of the surveillance system's sensitivity and the corresponding probability of elimination (PFree). It can also quantify challenging parameters related to malaria transmission and surveillance sensitivity. Our study highlights the effectiveness of data-driven tools in decision-making for malaria and suggests a reassessment of the conventional method for confirming elimination.

Serological data can provide estimates of human exposure to both malaria vector and parasite based on antibody responses. A multiplex bead-based assay was developed to simultaneously detect IgG to Anopheles albimanus salivary gland extract (SGE) and 23 Plasmodium falciparum antigens among 4185 participants enrolled in Artibonite department, Haiti in 2017. Logistic regression adjusted for participant- and site-level covariates and found children under 5 years and 6–15 years old had 3.7- and 5.4-fold increase in odds, respectively, of high anti-SGE IgG compared to participants >15 years. Seropositivity to P. falciparum CSP, Rh2_2030, and SEA-1 antigens was significantly associated with high IgG response against SGE, and participant enrolment at elevations under 200 m was associated with higher anti-SGE IgG levels. The ability to approximate population exposure to malaria vectors through SGE serology data is very dependent by age categories, and SGE antigens can be easily integrated into a multiplex serological assay.

Background Haiti is planning targeted interventions to accelerate progress toward malaria elimination. In the most affected department (Grande-Anse), a combined mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaign was launched in October 2018. This study assessed the intervention’s effectiveness in reducing Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Methods An ecological quasi-experimental study was designed, using a pretest and posttest with a nonrandomized control group. Surveys were conducted in November 2017 in a panel of easy access groups (25 schools and 16 clinics) and were repeated 2–6 weeks after the campaign, in November 2018. Single-dose sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and primaquine was used for MDA, and pirimiphos-methyl as insecticide for IRS. Results A total of 10 006 participants were recruited. Fifty-two percent of the population in the intervention area reported having received MDA. Prevalence diminished between 2017 and 2018 in both areas, but the reduction was significantly larger in the intervention area (ratio of adjusted risk ratios, 0.32 [95% confidence interval, .104–.998]). Conclusions Despite a moderate coverage, the campaign was effective in reducing P. falciparum prevalence immediately after 1 round. Targeted MDA plus IRS is useful in preelimination settings to rapidly decrease the parasite reservoir, an encouraging step to accelerate progress toward malaria elimination.

In urban settings in malaria-endemic countries, malaria incidence is not well characterized and assumed to be typically very low and consisting largely of imported infections. In such contexts, surveillance systems should adapt to ensure that data are of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform appropriate programmatic interventions. The aim of this research was to 1) assess spatial and temporal trends in reported malaria cases in Maputo City, Mozambique, using an expanded case notification form and 2) to determine how malaria surveillance can be optimized to characterize the local epidemiological context, which can then be used to inform targeted entomological investigations and guide implementation of localized malaria responses. This study took place in all six health facilities of KaMavota District in Maputo City, Mozambique. A questionnaire was administered to all confirmed cases from November 2019 to August 2021. Households of cases were retrospectively geolocated using local landmarks as reference. Overall, 2,380 malaria cases were reported, with the majority being uncomplicated (97.7%) and a median age of 21 years; 70.8% of cases had reported traveling outside the city in the past month with nine reporting traveling internationally. Maps of the 1,314 malaria cases that were geolocated showed distinct spatial patterns. The expanded case notification form enables a more granular overview of the malaria epidemiology in Maputo City; the geolocation data clearly show the areas where endemic transmission is likely, thus informing where resources should be prioritized. As urbanization is rapidly increasing in malaria endemic areas, identifying systems and key variables to collect ensures an operational way to characterize urban malaria through optimization of routine data to inform decision-making.

Background: \ud Passively collected malaria case data are the foundation for public health decision making. However, because of population-level immunity, infections might not always be sufficiently symptomatic to prompt individuals to seek care. Understanding the proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections expected to be detected by the health system becomes particularly paramount in elimination settings. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the proportion of infections detected and transmission intensity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in several global endemic settings.\ud \ud Methods: \ud The proportion of infections detected in routine malaria data, P(Detect), was derived from paired household cross-sectional survey and routinely collected malaria data within health facilities. P(Detect) was estimated using a Bayesian model in 431 clusters spanning the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The association between P(Detect) and malaria prevalence was assessed using log-linear regression models. Changes in P(Detect) over time were evaluated using data from 13 timepoints over 2 years from The Gambia.\ud \ud Findings: \ud The median estimated P(Detect) across all clusters was 12·5% (IQR 5·3–25·0) for P falciparum and 10·1% (5·0–18·3) for P vivax and decreased as the estimated log-PCR community prevalence increased (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for P falciparum 0·63, 95% CI 0·57–0·69; adjusted OR for P vivax 0·52, 0·47–0·57). Factors associated with increasing P(Detect) included smaller catchment population size, high transmission season, improved care-seeking behaviour by infected individuals, and recent increases (within the previous year) in transmission intensity.\ud \ud Interpretation: \ud The proportion of all infections detected within health systems increases once transmission intensity is sufficiently low. The likely explanation for P falciparum is that reduced exposure to infection leads to lower levels of protective immunity in the population, increasing the likelihood that infected individuals will become symptomatic and seek care. These factors might also be true for P vivax but a better understanding of the transmission biology is needed to attribute likely reasons for the observed trend. In low transmission and pre-elimination settings, enhancing access to care and improvements in care-seeking behaviour of infected individuals will lead to an increased proportion of infections detected in the community and might contribute to accelerating the interruption of transmission.\ud \ud Funding: \ud Wellcome Trust.

Background Serological data indicating the presence and level of antibodies against infectious disease antigens provides indicators of exposure and transmission patterns in a population. Laboratory testing for large-scale serosurveys is often hindered by time-consuming immunoassays that employ multiple tandem steps. Some nations have recently begun using malaria serosurveillance data to make inferences about the malaria exposure in their populations, and serosurveys have grown increasingly larger as more accurate estimates are desired. Presented here is a novel approach of antibody detection using bead-based immunoassay that involves incubating all assay reagents concurrently overnight. Results A serosurvey in was performed in Haiti in early 2017 with both sera (n = 712) and dried blood spots (DBS, n = 796) collected for the same participants. The Luminex® multiplex bead-based assay (MBA) was used to detect total IgG against 8 malaria antigens: PfMSP1, PvMSP1, PmMSP1, PfCSP, PfAMA1, PfLSA1, PfGLURP-R0, PfHRP2. All sera and DBS samples were assayed by MBA using a standard immunoassay protocol with multiple steps, as well a protocol where sample and all reagents were incubated together overnight—termed here the OneStep assay. When compared to a standard multi-step assay, this OneStep assay amplified the assay signal for IgG detection for all 8 malaria antigens. The greatest increases in assay signal were seen at the low- and mid-range IgG titers and were indicative of an enhancement in the analyte detection, not simply an increase in the background signal of the assay. Seroprevalence estimates were generally similar for this sample Haitian population for all antigens regardless of serum or DBS sample type or assay protocol used. Conclusions When using the MBA for IgG detection, overnight incubation for the test sample and all assay reagents greatly minimized hands-on time for laboratory staff. Enhanced IgG signal was observed with the OneStep assay for all 8 malaria antigens employed in this study, and seroprevalence estimates for this sample population were similar regardless of assay protocol used. This overnight incubation protocol has the potential to be deployed for large-scale malaria serosurveys for the high-throughput and timely collection of antibody data, particularly for malaria seroprevalence estimates.

Background The effectiveness of a surveillance system to detect infections in the population is paramount when confirming elimination. Estimating the sensitivity of a surveillance system requires identifying key steps in the care-seeking cascade, from initial infection to confirmed diagnosis, and quantifying the probability of appropriate action at each stage. Using malaria as an example, a framework was developed to estimate the sensitivity of key components of the malaria surveillance cascade. Methods Parameters to quantify the sensitivity of the surveillance system were derived from monthly malaria case data over a period of 36 months and semi-quantitative surveys in 46 health facilities on Java Island, Indonesia. Parameters were informed by the collected empirical data and estimated by modelling the flow of an infected individual through the system using a Bayesian framework. A model-driven health system survey was designed to collect empirical data to inform parameter estimates in the surveillance cascade. Results Heterogeneity across health facilities was observed in the estimated probability of care-seeking (range = 0.01–0.21, mean ± sd = 0.09 ± 0.05) and testing for malaria (range = 0.00–1.00, mean ± sd = 0.16 ± 0.29). Care-seeking was higher at facilities regularly providing antimalarial drugs (Odds Ratio [OR] = 2.98, 95% Credible Intervals [CI]: 1.54–3.16). Predictably, the availability of functioning microscopy equipment was associated with increased odds of being tested for malaria (OR = 7.33, 95% CI = 20.61). Conclusions The methods for estimating facility-level malaria surveillance sensitivity presented here can help provide a benchmark for what constitutes a strong system. The proposed approach also enables programs to identify components of the health system that can be improved to strengthen surveillance and support public-health decision-making.

Background Serological surveys with multiplex bead assays can be used to assess seroprevalence to multiple pathogens simultaneously. However, multiple methods have been used to generate cut-off values for seropositivity and these may lead to inconsistent interpretation of results. A literature review was conducted to describe the methods used to determine cut-off values for data generated by multiplex bead assays. Methodology/Principal findings A search was conducted in PubMed that included articles published from January 2010 to January 2020, and 308 relevant articles were identified that included the terms “serology”, “cut-offs”, and “multiplex bead assays”. After application of exclusion of articles not relevant to neglected tropical diseases (NTD), vaccine preventable diseases (VPD), or malaria, 55 articles were examined based on their relevance to NTD or VPD. The most frequently applied approaches to determine seropositivity included the use of presumed unexposed populations, mixture models, receiver operating curves (ROC), and international standards. Other methods included the use of quantiles, pre-exposed endemic cohorts, and visual inflection points. Conclusions/Significance For disease control programmes, seropositivity is a practical and easily interpretable health metric but determining appropriate cut-offs for positivity can be challenging. Considerations for optimal cut-off approaches should include factors such as methods recommended by previous research, transmission dynamics, and the immunological backgrounds of the population. In the absence of international standards for estimating seropositivity in a population, the use of consistent methods that align with individual disease epidemiological data will improve comparability between settings and enable the assessment of changes over time., Author summary Serological surveys can provide information regarding population-level disease exposure by assessing immune responses created during infection. Multiplex bead assays (MBAs) allow for an integrated serological platform to monitor antibody responses to multiple pathogens concurrently. As programs adopt integrated disease control strategies, MBAs are especially advantageous since many of these diseases may be present in the same population and antibodies against all pathogens of interest can be detected simultaneously from a single blood sample. Interpreting serological data in a programmatic context typically involves classifying individuals as seronegative or seropositive using a ‘cut-off’, whereby anyone with a response above the defined threshold is considered to be seropositive. Although studies increasingly test blood samples with MBAs, published studies have applied different methods of determining seropositivity cut-offs, making results difficult to compare across settings and over time. The lack of harmonized methods for defining seropositivity is due to the absence of international standards, pathogen biology, or assay-specific methods that may impact resulting data. This review highlights the need for a standardized approach for which cut-off methods to use per pathogen when applied to integrated disease surveillance using platforms such as MBAs.

Malaria incidence in Myanmar has significantly reduced over recent years, however, completeness and timeliness of incidence data remain a challenge. The first ever nationwide malaria infection and seroprevalence survey was conducted in Myanmar in 2015 to better understand malaria epidemiology and highlight gaps in Annual Parasite Index (API) data. The survey was a cross-sectional two-stage stratified cluster-randomised household survey conducted from July-October 2015. Blood samples were collected from household members for ultra-sensitive PCR and serology testing for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Data was gathered on demography and a priori risk factors of participants. Data was analysed nationally and within each of four domains defined by API data. Prevalence and seroprevalence of malaria were 0.74% and 16.01% nationwide, respectively. Prevalent infection was primarily asymptomatic P. vivax, while P. falciparum was predominant in serology. There was large heterogeneity between villages and by domain. At the township level, API showed moderate correlation with P. falciparum seroprevalence. Risk factors for infection included socioeconomic status, domain, and household ownership of nets. Three K13 P. falciparum mutants were found in highly prevalent villages. There results highlight high heterogeneity of both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission between villages, accentuated by a large hidden reservoir of asymptomatic P. vivax infection not captured by incidence data, and representing challenges for malaria elimination. Village-level surveillance and stratification to guide interventions to suit local context and targeting of transmission foci with evidence of drug resistance would aid elimination efforts.

Background: Antimalarial antibody measurements are useful because they reflect historical and recent exposure to malaria. As such, they may provide additional information to assess ongoing transmission in low endemic or pre-elimination settings where cases are rare. In addition, the absence of antibody responses in certain individuals can indicate the cessation of transmission. Commercial malaria enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) detect antimalarial antibodies and are commonly used to screen blood donations for possible malaria infection. However, there is no standardized test to detect antimalarial antibodies for epidemiological use. Here we compared five commercially available ELISA kits (Trinity Biotech, newbio, DiaPro, Cellabs, and NovaTec) in search of a standardized tool for supporting claims of absence of malaria transmission. For comparison, a research-based (RB) ELISA protocol was performed alongside the commercial kits.\ud \ud Results: The commercial kits were first compared using serum samples from known malaria-unexposed individuals (n = 223) and Toxoplasma-infected individuals (n = 191) to assess specificity and cross-reactivity against non-malaria infections. In addition, 134 samples from ≥10-year-olds collected in a hyperendemic region in the Gambia in the early 1990s were used to assess sensitivity. Three out of five kits showed high sensitivity (90–92%), high specificity (98–99%), low cross-reactivity (0–3%) and were considered user-friendly (Trinity Biotech, newbio and NovaTec). Two of these kits (Trinity Biotech and NovaTec) were taken forward for epidemiological evaluation and results were compared to those using the RB-ELISA. Samples from two pre-elimination settings (Praia, Cape Verde; n = 1,396, and Bataan, the Philippines; n = 1,824) were tested. Serological results from both the Trinity Biotech kit and the RB-ELISA concurred with recent passively detected case counts in both settings. Results from the Trinity Biotech kit reflected a significant decrease in the number of reported cases in Bataan in the 1990s better than the RB-ELISA. Results from the NovaTec kit did not reflect transmission patterns in either setting.\ud \ud Conclusion: The Trinity Biotech commercial ELISA kit was considered reliable for epidemiological use and accurately described transmission patterns in two (previously) malaria endemic settings. The use of this simple and standardized serological tool may aid national control and elimination programs by confirming that regions are free from malaria.

The island of Hispaniola aims to eliminate malaria by 2025; however, there are limited data to describe epidemiologic risk factors for malaria in this setting. A prospective case–control study was conducted at four health facilities in southwest Haiti, aiming to describe factors influencing the risk of current and past malaria infection. Cases were defined as individuals attending facilities with current or recent fever and positive malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT), while controls were those with current or recent fever and RDT negative. Serological markers of recent and cumulative exposure to Plasmodium were assessed using the multiplex bead assay from dried blood spots and used for alternate case definitions. Kuldorff’s spatial scan statistic was used to identify local clusters of infection or exposure. Logistic regression models were used to assess potential risk factors for RDT positivity and recent exposure markers, including age-group, gender, and recruiting health facility as group-matching variables. A total of 192 cases (RDT positive) and 915 controls (RDT negative) were recruited. Consistent spatial clusters were identified for all three infection and exposure metrics, indicating temporal stability of malaria transmission at these sites. Risk factors included remoteness from health facilities and household construction, furthermore, insecticide-treated net ownership or use was associated with reduced odds of RDT positivity. These findings indicate the malaria risk in Grand’Anse is driven primarily by location. Travel, occupation, and other behavioral factors were not associated with malaria. These data can support the National Malaria Program to refine and target their intervention approaches, and to move toward elimination.

Background In order to improve malaria burden estimates in low transmission settings, more sensitive tools and efficient sampling strategies are required. This study evaluated the use of serological measures from repeated health facility-based cross-sectional surveys to investigate Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission dynamics in an area nearing elimination in Indonesia. Methods Quarterly surveys were conducted in eight public health facilities in Kulon Progo District, Indonesia, from May 2017 to April 2018. Demographic data were collected from all clinic patients and their companions, with household coordinates collected using participatory mapping methods. In addition to standard microscopy tests, bead-based serological assays were performed on finger-prick bloodspot samples from 9453 people. Seroconversion rates (SCR, i.e. the proportion of people in the population who are expected to seroconvert per year) were estimated by fitting a simple reversible catalytic model to seroprevalence data. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with malaria exposure, and spatial analysis was performed to identify areas with clustering of high antibody responses. Results Parasite prevalence by microscopy was extremely low (0.06% (95% confidence interval 0.03–0.14, n = 6) and 0 for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively). However, spatial analysis of P. vivax antibody responses identified high-risk areas that were subsequently the site of a P. vivax outbreak in August 2017 (62 cases detected through passive and reactive detection systems). These areas overlapped with P. falciparum high-risk areas and were detected in each survey. General low transmission was confirmed by the SCR estimated from a pool of the four surveys in people aged 15 years old and under (0.020 (95% confidence interval 0.017–0.024) and 0.005 (95% confidence interval 0.003–0.008) for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively). The SCR estimates in those over 15 years old were 0.066 (95% confidence interval 0.041–0.105) and 0.032 (95% confidence interval 0.015–0.069) for P. vivax and P. falciparum, respectively. Conclusions These findings demonstrate the potential use of health facility-based serological surveillance to better identify and target areas still receptive to malaria in an elimination setting. Further implementation research is needed to enable integration of these methods with existing surveillance systems.

Measuring antimalarial antibodies can estimate transmission in a population. To compare outputs, standardized laboratory testing is required. Here we describe the in-country establishment and quality control (QC) of a multiplex bead assay (MBA) for three sero-surveys in Haiti. Total IgG data against 21 antigens were collected for 32,758 participants. Titration curves of hyperimmune sera were included on assay plates, assay signals underwent 5-parameter regression, and inspection of the median and interquartile range (IQR) for the y-inflection point was used to determine assay precision. The medians and IQRs were similar for Surveys 1 and 2 for most antigens, while the IQRs increased for some antigens in Survey 3. Levey-Jennings charts for selected antigens provided a pass/fail criterion for each assay plate and, of 387 assay plates, 13 (3.4%) were repeated. Individual samples failed if IgG binding to the generic glutathione-S-transferase protein was observed, with 659 (2.0%) samples failing. An additional 455 (1.4%) observations failed due to low bead numbers (

Background Cabo Verde is one of the E-2020 Initiative, a group of 21 countries identified by World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016 as having the potential to eliminate malaria by 2020. Located in west Africa, Cabo Verde is an archipelago consisting of nine inhabited islands. Malaria has been endemic since the settlement of the islands during the during the 16th century and is poised to achieve malaria elimination in January 2021. The aim of this research is to characterise the trends in malaria cases from 2010 to 2019 as the country transitions from endemic transmission to elimination and prevention of reintroduction phases. Methods All confirmed malaria cases reported to the Ministry of Health between 2010 and 2019 were extracted and secondary analysis was conducted. Variables collected as part of the routine reporting for each confirmed case included age, sex, municipality of residence, and if classified as imported, the reported country of travel within the past 30 days, providing the presumed origin of infection. Trends in reported cases were visualised and logistic regression used to identify risk factors associated with imported malaria. Results A total of 819 malaria cases were reported in the country between 2010 and 2019, the majority of which were Plasmodium falciparum. Overall, 554 (67.6%) and 263 (32.1%) of cases were reported as locally acquired and imported, respectively, with the last locally acquired case reported in January 2018. Only two (0.20%) of the cases were classified as introduced, a single case in each of 2018 and 2019. Of the locally acquired cases, 80.5% (446/554) were reported during the outbreak in 2017. The majority of malaria cases were identified in males (766; 73.3%) or those aged 20 years or older (658; 79.7%). The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of cases being imported was 3.73 (95% CI: 2.47–4.99) in the post epidemic period compared with the pre-epidemic period and reported on Sao Vicente island (AOR = 6.96, 95% CI = 4.40–9.53, p

Background Despite the biological plausibility of hotspots fueling malaria transmission, the evidence to support this concept has been mixed. If transmission spreads from high burden to low burden households in a consistent manner, then this could have important implications for control and elimination program development. Methods Data from a longitudinal cohort in The Gambia was analyzed. All consenting individuals residing in 12 villages across the country were sampled monthly from June (dry season) to December 2013 (wet season), in April 2014 (mid dry season), and monthly from June to December 2014. A study nurse stationed within each village recorded passively detected malaria episodes between visits. Plasmodium falciparum infections were determined by polymerase chain reaction and analyzed using a geostatistical model. Results Household-level observed monthly incidence ranged from 0 to 0.50 infection per person (interquartile range = 0.02–0.10) across the sampling months, and high burden households exist across all study villages. There was limited evidence of a spatio-temporal pattern at the monthly timescale irrespective of transmission intensity. Within-household transmission was the most plausible hypothesis examined to explain the observed heterogeneity in infections. Conclusions Within-village malaria transmission patterns are concentrated in a small proportion of high burden households, but patterns are stochastic regardless of endemicity. Our findings support the notion of transmission occurring at the household and village scales but not the use of a targeted approach to interrupt spreading of infections from high to low burden areas within villages in this setting. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1141-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Accurate malaria diagnosis is foundational for control and elimination, and Haiti relies on histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) identifying Plasmodium falciparum in clinical and community settings. In 2017, 1 household and 2 easy-access group surveys tested all participants (N = 32 506) by conventional and high-sensitivity RDTs. A subset of blood samples (n = 1154) was laboratory tested for HRP2 by bead-based immunoassay and for P. falciparum 18S rDNA by photo-induced electron transfer polymerase chain reaction. Both RDT types detected low concentrations of HRP2 with sensitivity estimates between 2.6 ng/mL and 14.6 ng/mL. Compared to the predicate HRP2 laboratory assay, RDT sensitivity ranged from 86.3% to 96.0% between tests and settings, and specificity from 90.0% to 99.6%. In the household survey, the high-sensitivity RDT provided a significantly higher number of positive tests, but this represented a very small proportion (

Background Measurements of anti-malarial antibodies are increasingly used as a proxy of transmission intensity. Most serological surveys are based on the use of cross-sectional data that, when age-stratified, approximates historical patterns of transmission within a population. Comparatively few studies leverage longitudinal data to explicitly relate individual infection events with subsequent antibody responses. Methods The occurrence of seroconversion and seroreversion events for two Plasmodium falciparum asexual stage antigens (MSP-1 and AMA-1) was examined using three annual measurements of 691 individuals from a cohort of individuals in a malaria-endemic area of rural east-central Tanzania. Mixed-effect logistic regression models were employed to determine factors associated with changes in serostatus over time. Results While the expected population-level relationship between seroprevalence and disease incidence was observed, on an individual level the relationship between individual infections and the antibody response was complex. MSP-1 antibody responses were more dynamic in response to the occurrence and resolution of infection events than AMA-1, while the latter was more correlated with consecutive infections. The MSP-1 antibody response to an observed infection seemed to decay faster over time than the corresponding AMA-1 response. Surprisingly, there was no evidence of an age effect on the occurrence of a conversion or reversion event. Conclusions While the population-level results concur with previously published sero-epidemiological surveys, the individual-level results highlight the more complex relationship between detected infections and antibody dynamics than can be analysed using cross-sectional data. The longitudinal analysis of serological data may provide a powerful tool for teasing apart the complex relationship between infection events and the corresponding immune response, thereby improving the ability to rapidly assess the success or failure of malaria control programmes.

Accurate malaria diagnosis is foundational for control and elimination, and Haiti relies on histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)–based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) identifying Plasmodium falciparum in clinical and community settings. In 2017, 1 household and 2 easy-access group surveys tested all participants (N = 32 506) by conventional and high-sensitivity RDTs. A subset of blood samples (n = 1154) was laboratory tested for HRP2 by bead-based immunoassay and for P. falciparum 18S rDNA by photo-induced electron transfer polymerase chain reaction. Both RDT types detected low concentrations of HRP2 with sensitivity estimates between 2.6 ng/mL and 14.6 ng/mL. Compared to the predicate HRP2 laboratory assay, RDT sensitivity ranged from 86.3% to 96.0% between tests and settings, and specificity from 90.0% to 99.6%. In the household survey, the high-sensitivity RDT provided a significantly higher number of positive tests, but this represented a very small proportion (

As data at progressively granular spatial scales become available, the temptation is to target interventions to areas with higher malaria transmission - so-called hotspots - with the aim of reducing transmission in the wider community. This paper reviews literature to determine if hotspots are an intrinsic feature of malaria epidemiology and whether current evidence supports hotspot-targeted interventions. Hotspots are a consistent feature of malaria transmission at all endemicities. The smallest spatial unit capable of supporting transmission is the household, where peri-domestic transmission occurs. Whilst the value of focusing interventions to high-burden areas is evident, there is currently limited evidence that local-scale hotspots fuel transmission. As boundaries are often uncertain, there is no conclusive evidence that hotspot-targeted interventions accelerate malaria elimination.

Background Reactive malaria strategies are predicated on the assumption that individuals infected with malaria are clustered within households or neighbourhoods. Despite the widespread programmatic implementation of reactive strategies, little empirical evidence exists as to whether such strategies are appropriate and, if so, how they should be most effectively implemented. Methods and findings We collated 2 different datasets to assess clustering of malaria infections within households: (i) demographic health survey (DHS) data, integrating household information and patent malaria infection, recent fever, and recent treatment status in children; and (ii) data from cross-sectional and reactive detection studies containing information on the household and malaria infection status (patent and subpatent) of all-aged individuals. Both datasets were used to assess the odds of infections clustering within index households, where index households were defined based on whether they contained infections detectable through one of 3 programmatic strategies: (a) Reactive Case Detection (RACD) classifed by confirmed clinical cases, (b) Mass Screen and Treat (MSAT) classifed by febrile, symptomatic infections, and (c) Mass Test and Treat (MTAT) classifed by infections detectable using routine diagnostics. Data included 59,050 infections in 208,140 children under 7 years old (median age = 2 years, minimum = 2, maximum = 7) by microscopy/rapid diagnostic test (RDT) from 57 DHSs conducted between November 2006 and December 2018 from 23 African countries. Data representing 11,349 infections across all ages (median age = 22 years, minimum = 0.5, maximum = 100) detected by molecular tools in 132,590 individuals in 43 studies published between April 2006 and May 2019 in 20 African, American, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries were obtained from the published literature. Extensive clustering was observed—overall, there was a 20.40 greater (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.35–20.45; P < 0.001) odds of patent infections (according to the DHS data) and 5.13 greater odds (95% CI 3.85–6.84; P < 0.001) of molecularly detected infections (from the published literature) detected within households in which a programmatically detectable infection resides. The strongest degree of clustering identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/ loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was observed using the MTAT strategy (odds ratio [OR] = 6.79, 95% CI 4.42–10.43) but was not significantly different when compared to MSAT (OR = 5.2, 95% CI 3.22–8.37; P-difference = 0.883) and RACD (OR = 4.08, 95% CI 2.55–6.53; P-difference = 0.29). Across both datasets, clustering became more prominent when transmission was low. However, limitations to our analysis include not accounting for any malaria control interventions in place, malaria seasonality, or the likely heterogeneity of transmission within study sites. Clustering may thus have been underestimated. Conclusions In areas where malaria transmission is peri-domestic, there are programmatic options for identifying households where residual infections are likely to be found. Combining these detection strategies with presumptively treating residents of index households over a sustained time period could contribute to malaria elimination efforts., Gillian Stresman and co-workers report on clustering of malaria infections within households to further approaches to disease prevention and treatment., Author summary Why was this study done? Malaria is a vector-borne parasitic infection that results in both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections and is a particularly important problem in African, South American, and Southeast Asian countries. When malaria transmission becomes low, malaria infections tend to become clustered within populations. In such situations, malaria programs can refine their strategies and begin to target malaria interventions specifically to include household members of malaria-infected individuals detected at the health facility, through community screening of febrile individuals or through mass testing individuals for malaria. To make informed decisions on whether, and when, programs should consider household-targeted malaria interventions, evidence is needed on whether malaria infections consistently cluster in households and which strategy is best able to target asymptomatic infections. What did the researchers do and find? We analysed data from 208,140 African children collected from the DHSs between November 2006 and December 2018 and conducted a meta-analysis of 132,590 individuals of all ages from all malaria-endemic settings around the world published between April 2006 and May 2019. Both datasets show that malaria infections do cluster in households at all transmission intensities, but clustering becomes more pronounced as transmission intensity declines (i.e., a larger proportion of infected individuals within a population are clustered in fewer households). If all household members of index cases were targeted with interventions, they could potentially treat approximately 75% of all infections in a community once transmission intensity is very low. What do these findings mean? In locations where local malaria transmission occurs, malaria infections cluster within households of index cases, regardless of how that index case was identified. Household targeted strategies, e.g., giving all residents of index households a curative dose of an effective antimalarial drug, provide malaria control programs with an option to easily target infections that otherwise may not be detected. In the future, understanding how reactive strategies contribute to achieving malaria elimination will be important in identifying the best strategy and for determining how long it should be sustained.

Background Malaria transmission in African highland areas can be prone to epidemics, with minor fluctuations in temperature or altitude resulting in highly heterogeneous transmission. In the Kenyan Highlands, where malaria prevalence has been increasing, characterising malaria incidence and identifying risk factors for infection is complicated by asymptomatic infection. Methods This all-age cohort study, one element of the Malaria Transmission Consortium, involved monthly follow-up of 3155 residents of the Kisii and Rachuonyo South districts during June 2009–June 2010. Participants were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic testing at every visit, regardless of symptoms. Results The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 0.2 cases per person, although infections were clustered within individuals and over time, with the majority of infections detected in the last month of the cohort study. Overall, incidence was higher in the Rachuonyo district and infections were detected most frequently in 5–10-year-olds. The majority of infections were asymptomatic (58%). Travel away from the study area was a notable risk factor for infection. Conclusions Identifying risk factors for malaria infection can help to guide targeting of interventions to populations most likely to be exposed to malaria.

BACKGROUND: Mass screening and treatment currently fails to identify a considerable fraction of low parasite density infections, while mass treatment exposes many uninfected individuals to antimalarial drugs. Here we test a hybrid approach to screen a sentinel population to identify clusters of subpatent infections in the Kenya highlands with low, heterogeneous malaria transmission. METHODS: Two thousand eighty-two inhabitants were screened for parasitemia by nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). Children aged ≤ 15 years and febrile adults were also tested for malaria by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and served as sentinel members to identify subpatent infections within the household. All parasitemic individuals were assessed for multiplicity of infections by nPCR and gametocyte carriage by nucleic acid sequence-based amplification. RESULTS: Households with RDT-positive individuals in the sentinel population were more likely to have nPCR-positive individuals (odds ratio: 1.71, 95% confidence interval, 1.60-1.84). The sentinel population identified 64.5% (locality range: 31.6%-81.2%) of nPCR-positive households and 77.3% (locality range: 24.2%-91.0%) of nPCR-positive individuals. The sensitivity of the sentinel screening approach was positively associated with transmission intensity (P = .037). CONCLUSIONS: In this low endemic area, a focal screening approach with RDTs prior to the high transmission season was able to identify the majority of the subpatent parasite reservoirs.

The global reductions in disease burden and the continued spread of drug and insecticide resistance make malaria elimination both viable and imperative, although this may be more easily achieved in some settings compared to others. Whilst the focus has been on optimal approaches to achieve elimination, less attention has been paid to how to measure the absence of malaria. Measuring the absence of transmission poses a specific challenge in that it involves proving a negative. The concept of freedom from infection, routinely used in veterinary epidemiology, can provide quantitative and reproducible estimates that, if infections were present above a predefined (low) threshold, they would be detected with a known uncertainty. Additionally, these methods are adaptable for both passively and actively collected data as well as combining information when multiple surveillance streams are available. Here we discuss the potential application of this approach to malaria.

The spatial heterogeneity of malaria suggests that interventions may be targeted for maximum impact. It is unclear to what extent different metrics lead to consistent delineation of hotspot boundaries. Using data from a large community-based malaria survey in the western Kenyan highlands, we assessed the agreement between a model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to detect hotspots using Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence and serological evidence for exposure. Malaria transmission was widespread and highly heterogeneous with one third of the total population living in hotspots regardless of metric tested. Moderate agreement (Kappa = 0.424) was observed between hotspots defined based on parasite prevalence by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- and the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-1, AMA-1). While numerous biologically plausible hotspots were identified, their detection strongly relied on the proportion of the population sampled. When only 3% of the population was sampled, no PCR derived hotspots were reliably detected and at least 21% of the population was needed for reliable results. Similar results were observed for hotspots of seroprevalence. Hotspot boundaries are driven by the malaria diagnostic and sample size used to inform the model. These findings warn against the simplistic use of spatial analysis on available data to target malaria interventions in areas where hotspot boundaries are uncertain.

Background Monitoring and evaluation of malaria programmes may require a combination of approaches to detect any effects of control. This is particularly true at lower transmission levels where detecting both infection and exposure to infection will provide additional evidence of any change. This paper describes use of three transmission metrics to explore the malaria epidemiology in the highlands of western Kenya. Methods A malariometric survey was conducted in June 2009 in two highland districts, Kisii and Rachuonyo South, Nyanza Province, Kenya using a cluster design. Enumeration areas were used to sample 46 clusters from which 12 compounds were randomly sampled. Individuals provided a finger-blood sample to assess malaria infection (rapid diagnostic test, PCR) and exposure (anti-Plasmodium falciparum MSP-1 antibodies) and a questionnaire was administered to record household factors and assess use of vector control interventions. Results Malaria prevalence infection rates were 3.0 % (95 % CI 2.2–4.2 %) by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and 8.5 % (95 % CI 7.0–10.4 %) by PCR and these ranged from 0–13.1 to 0–14.8 % between clusters for RDT and PCR, respectively. Seroprevalence was 36.8 % (95 % CI 33.9–39.8) ranging from 18.6 to 65.8 %. Both RDT and PCR prevalences were highest in children aged 5–10 years but the proportion of infections that were sub-patent was highest in those between 15 and 20 years of age (78.1 %, 95 % CI 63.0–93.3 %) and those greater than 20 years (73.3 %, 95 % CI 64.5–81.9 %). Those reporting both indoor residual spraying (IRS) in their home and use of bed nets had lower exposure to malaria compared to those who reported using IRS or bed nets alone. Conclusions In this highland site in western Kenya malaria transmission was low, but highly heterogeneous. To accurately characterize the true extent of malaria transmission, more sensitive and complementary metrics such as PCR or serology are required in addition to the standard microscopy and/or RDTs that are routinely used. This is likely to be the case in other low endemicity settings. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0944-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.