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When is it safe, or at least, not unreasonably risky, to undertake fieldwork on active volcanoes? Volcano observatories must balance the safety of staff against the value of collecting field data and/or manual instrument installation, maintenance, and repair. At times of volcanic unrest this can present a particular dilemma, as both the value of fieldwork (which might help save lives or prevent unnecessary evacuation) and the risk to staff in the field may be high. Despite the increasing coverage and scope of remote monitoring methods, in-person fieldwork is still required for comprehensive volcano monitoring, and can be particularly valuable at times of volcanic unrest. A volcano observatory has a moral and legal duty to minimise occupational risk for its staff, but must do this in a way that balances against this its duty to provide the best possible information in support of difficult decisions on community safety. To assist with consistent and objective decision-making regarding whether to undertake fieldwork on active volcanoes, we present the Volcano Life Risk Estimator (VoLREst). We developed VoLREst to quantitatively evaluate life-safety risk to GNS Science staff undertaking fieldwork on volcanoes in unrest where the primary concerns are volcanic hazards from an eruption with no useful short-term precursory activity that would indicate an imminent eruption. The hazards considered are ballistics, pyroclastic density currents, and near-vent processes. VoLREst quantifies the likelihood of exposure to volcanic hazards at various distances from the vent for small, moderate, or large eruptions. This, combined with the estimate of the chance of a fatality given exposure to a volcanic hazard, provides VoLREst’s final output: quantification of the hourly risk of a fatality for an individual at various distances from the volcanic vent. At GNS Science, the calculated levels of life-safety risk trigger different levels of managerial approval required to undertake fieldwork. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective and reproducible guidance for go/no go decisions for access to undertake volcano monitoring.

We summarize major findings and best-practice recommendations from three Volcano Observatory Best Practices (VOBP) workshops, which were held in 2011, 2013 and 2016. The workshops brought together representatives from the majority of the world’s volcano observatories for the purpose of sharing information on the operation and practice of these institutions and making best practice recommendations. The first workshop focused on eruption forecasting, the second on hazard communication, and the third on long-term hazard assessment. Subsequent VOBP workshops will address additional issues of broad interest to the international volcano observatory community. The objective of VOBP is to develop synergy among volcano hazards programs and their observatories internationally, so as to more rapidly and broadly advance the field of applied volcanology. Each of the workshop summaries presented here include best practice recommendations for consideration by the world’s volcano observatories.

Volcanic hazard estimation is becoming increasingly quantitative, creating the potential for land-use decisions and engineering design to use volcanic information in an analogous manner to seismic codes. The initial requirement is to characterize the possible hazard sources, quantifying the likely timing, magnitude and location of the next eruption in each case. This is complicated by the extremely different driving processes at individual volcanoes, and incomplete and uneven records of past activity at various volcanoes. To address these issues, we carried out an expert elicitation approach to estimate future eruption potential for 12 volcanoes of interest in New Zealand. A total of 28 New Zealand experts provided estimates that were combined using Cooke’s classical method to arrive at a hazard estimate. In 11 of the 12 cases, the elicited eruption duration increased with VEI, and was correlated with expected repose, differing little between volcanoes. Most of the andesitic volcanoes had very similar elicited distributions for the VEI of a future eruption, except that Taranaki was expected to produce a larger eruption, due to the current long repose. Elicited future vent locations for Tongariro and Okataina reflect strongly the most recent eruptions. In the poorly studied Bay of Islands volcanic field, the estimated vent location distribution was centred on the centroid of the previous vent locations, while in the Auckland field, it was focused on regions within the field without past eruptions. The elicited median dates for the next eruptions ranged from AD2022 (Whakaari/White Island) to AD4390 (Tuhua/Mayor Island).

Numerous volcanic crises have been observed, from small and local in scale, to large regional events. Each crisis has its own contingencies, both spatially and temporally. Differing cultures, politics, economics, population sizes, scales of events, types of volcanic hazards, and geographical constraints shape the dynamics of a crisis. It is potentially only with hindsight can the variables be recognised that may have played a significant role in the success or failure of a crisis. Each event can provide valuable insights of issues to be weary of in future crisis, but equally numerous examples can help build a picture of good practices or procedures that can help foster strong links during a crisis, particularly in relation to communication between the various stakeholders.

The 6 August 2012 eruption from Tongariro volcano's Te Maari vent comprised a complex sequence of events including at least 4 eruption pulses, a large chasm collapse, and a debris avalanche (volume of ~ 7 × 10 5 m 3 ) that propagated ~ 2 km beyond the eruptive vent. The eruption was poorly observed, being obscured by night time darkness, and the eruption timing must be unravelled instead from a complex seismic record that includes discrete volcanic earthquakes, a sequence of low to moderate level spasmodic tremor and an intense burst of seismic and infrasound activity that marked the eruption onset. We have discriminated the evolution of the complex surface activity by comparing active seismic source data to the seismic sequence in a new cross correlation source location approach. We dropped 11 high impact masses from helicopter to generate a range of active seismic sources in the vicinity of the eruption vent, chasm, and debris avalanche areas. We obtained 8 successful drops having an impact energy ranging from 3 to 9 × 10 6 Nm producing observable seismic signals to a distance of 5 to 10 km and having good signal to noise characteristics in the 3–12 Hz range. For the 8 drops, we picked first-P arrival times and calculated amplitude spectra for a uniform set of four stations. We then compared these proxy source excitations to the natural eruption and pre-eruption data using a moving window cross correlation approach. From the correlation processing, we obtain a best matched source position in the near vent region for the eruption period and significant down channel excitations during both the pre and post eruption periods. The total seismic energy release calculated from the new method is ~ 8 × 10 11 Nm, similar to an independently estimated calculation based on the radiated seismic energy. The new energy estimate may be more robust than those calculated from standard seismic radiation equations, which may include uncertainties about the path and site effects. The active source data carry this information directly in the waveforms, yielding a simple conversion between seismic amplitude and energy.

New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice. Hazard maps were integral to science communication during the crisis, but there is limited international best practice information available on hazard maps as communication devices, as most volcanic hazard mapping literature is concerned with defining hazard zones. We propose that hazard maps are only as good as the communications framework and inter-agency relationships in which they are embedded, and we document in detail the crisis hazard map development process. We distinguish crisis hazard maps from background hazard maps and ashfall prediction maps, illustrating the complementary nature of these three distinct communication mechanisms. We highlight issues that arose and implications for the development of future maps.

By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i. e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Estimating the occurrence probability of volcanic eruptions with VEI ≥3 is challenging in several aspects, including data scarcity. A suggested approach has been to use a simple model, where eruptions are assumed to follow a Poisson process, augmenting the data used to estimate the eruption onset rate with that from several analog volcanoes. In this model the eruption onset rate is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution, the parameters of which are estimated by an empirical Bayes analysis. The selection of analog volcanoes is an important step that needs to be explicitly considered in this model, as we show that the analysis is not always feasible due to the required over-dispersion in the resulting negative binomial distribution for the numbers of eruptions. We propose a modification to the method which allows for both over-dispersed and under-dispersed data, and permits analog volcanoes to be chosen on other grounds than mathematical tractability.

At 20:26 (NZDT) on 25 September 2007 a moderate gas-driven eruption beneath the summit Crater Lake of Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand generated a directed ballistic fallout apron and surtseyan jet that impacted an area of c. 2.5 km2 to the north of the vent. Two climbers were caught in the blast at a hut 600 m from the vent. Primary, ice-slurry lahars were generated in two catchments draining the summit region, including a flow that entered a commercial ski field. The ejecta consists of blocks of andesitic lava and scoria erupted during previous volcanic episodes, a variety of mineral-cemented lake-floor sediments, vent-fill debris and rare glassy material interpreted to be derived from a fresh batch of magma. A minority of clasts contain formerly molten elemental sulphur, indicating that vent temperatures at the base of the lake were in excess of 119 °C. The ballistic deposit is confined to a c. 40° wide swath directed northwards that extends up to 2 km from the inferred vent location beneath Crater Lake. The strong directionality of the jetted deposits and ballistic-free ‘shadow-zones’ sheltered by intervening topography all point to a relatively low-angle directed blast. Previous similar eruptions at Ruapehu also show preferred deposit orientations that are here correlated with an inclined and off-centre vent beneath Crater Lake. The 25 September 2007 eruption appears to have resulted from failure of a relatively shallow hydrothermal seal composed of elemental sulphur and other mineral precipitates developed in the vent breccia, which breached following overpressurization by a pulse of magmatic gases released from deeper in the conduit. This event highlights the potential hazard from relatively minor gas-driven eruptions at Ruapehu that can occur with little or no warning. Improved understanding of the eruption mechanism for this style of eruption will inform future risk assessments for Ruapehu and other similar volcanoes worldwide.

Caldera unrest occurs frequently at Taupo Volcanic Centre (TVC), New Zealand, occasionally resulting in deleterious socio-economic impacts. This large silicic volcano most recently erupted in 232 AD in an explosive, caldera-forming rhyolitic eruption, devastating the central North Island. Eruptions are preceded by volcanic unrest, often consisting of seismicity, deformation, degassing, and/or geothermal system changes. These phenomena may also occur due to non-magmatic processes, complicating eruption forecasting. As volcanic unrest may or may not lead to an eruption, it needs to be characterised to provide effective warnings; this is best achieved by understanding past unrest. In this research, a catalogue of caldera unrest at TVC is developed using an historical chronology methodology, spanning from 1872 to December 2011. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI), which is introduced by Potter et al. (2015), is estimated for the catalogue, demonstrating its use and providing a characterisation of unrest at TVC. Sixteen episodes of unrest are identified; 4 are classified as moderate unrest (VUI 3), and 12 are classified as minor unrest (VUI 2). There has been median interval of approximately 3 years between unrest episodes and a median unrest episode duration of just under 5 months. This research provides context for future caldera unrest crises at TVC and contributes to the global caldera unrest dataset.

Accurately observing and interpreting volcanic unrest phenomena contributes towards better forecasting of volcanic eruptions, thus potentially saving lives. Volcanic unrest is recorded by volcano observatories and may include seismic, geodetic, degassing and/or geothermal phenomena. The multivariate datasets are often complex and can contain a large amount of data in a variety of formats. Low levels of unrest are frequently recorded, causing the distinction between background activity and unrest to be blurred, despite the widespread usage of these terms in unrest literature (including probabilistic eruption-forecasting models) and in Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems. Frequencies and intensities of unrest episodes are not easily comparable over time or between volcanoes. Complex unrest information is difficult to communicate simply to civil defence personnel and other non-scientists. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI) is presented here to address these issues. The purpose of the VUI is to provide a semi-quantitative rating of unrest intensity relative to each volcano’s past level of unrest and to that of analogous volcanoes. The VUI is calculated using a worksheet of observed phenomena. Ranges for each phenomenon within the worksheet can be customised for individual volcanoes, as demonstrated in the companion paper for Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (Potter et al. 2015). The VUI can be determined retrospectively for historical episodes of unrest based on qualitative observations, as well as for recent episodes with state-of-the-art monitoring. This enables a long time series of unrest occurrence and intensity to be constructed and easily communicated to end users. The VUI can also assist with VAL decision-making. We present and discuss two approaches to the concept of unrest.

1. An introduction to global volcanic hazard and risk S. C. Loughlin, C. Vye-Brown, R. S. J. Sparks, S. K. Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder, E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J.-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter, G. Valentine, B. Baptie, J. Biggs, H. S. Crosweller, E. Ilyinskaya, C. Kilburn, K. Mee and M. Pritchard 2. Global volcanic hazard and risk S. K. Brown, S. C. Loughlin, R. S. J. Sparks, C. Vye-Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder, E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J.-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter, G. Valentine, B. Baptie, J. Biggs, H. S. Crosweller, E. Ilyinskaya, C. Kilburn, K. Mee and M. Pritchard 3. Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk S. F. Jenkins, T. M. Wilson, C. Magill, V. Miller, C. Stewart, R. Blong, W. Marzocchi, M. Boulton, C. Bonadonna and A. Costa 4. Populations around Holocene volcanoes and development of a Population Exposure Index S. K. Brown, M. R. Auker and R. S. J. Sparks 5. An integrated approach to Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland, New Zealand: the multidisciplinary DEVORA project N. I. Deligne, J. M. Lindsay and E. Smid 6. Tephra fall hazard for the Neapolitan area W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, A. Costa, L. Sandri, R. Tonini and G. Macedonio 7. Eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, 1991-2000 C. G. Newhall and R. Solidum 8. Improving crisis decision-making at times of uncertain volcanic unrest (Guadeloupe, 1976) J.-C. Komorowski, T. Hincks, R. S. J. Sparks, W. Aspinall and CASAVA ANR project consortium 9. Forecasting the November 2010 eruption of Merapi, Indonesia J. Pallister and Surono 10. The importance of communication in hazard zone areas: case study during and after 2010 Merapi eruption, Indonesia S. Andreastuti, J. Subandriyo, S. Sumarti and D. Sayudi 11. Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo), January 2002: a major eruption in the midst of a complex humanitarian emergency J.-C. Komorowski and K. Karume 12. Volcanic ash fall impacts T. M. Wilson, S. F. Jenkins and C. Stewart 13. Health impacts of volcanic eruptions C. Horwell, P. Baxter and R. Kamanyire 14. Volcanoes and the aviation industry P. W. Webley 15. The role of volcano observatories in risk reduction G. Jolly 16. Developing effective communication tools for volcanic hazards in New Zealand, using social science G. Leonard and S. Potter 17. Volcano monitoring from space M. Poland 18. Volcanic unrest and short-term forecasting capacity J. Gottsmann 19. Global monitoring capacity: development of the Global Volcano Research and Monitoring Institutions Database and analysis of monitoring in Latin America N. Ortiz Guerrero, S. K. Brown, H. Delgado Granados and C. Lombana Criollo 20. Volcanic hazard maps E. Calder, K. Wagner and S. E. Ogburn 21. Risk assessment case history: the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat W. Aspinall and G. Wadge 22. Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) M. R. Auker, R. S. J. Sparks, S. F. Jenkins, S. K. Brown, W. Aspinall, N. I. Deligne, G. Jolly, S. C. Loughlin, W. Marzocchi, C. G. Newhall and J. L. Palma 23. Global distribution of volcanic threat S. K. Brown, R. S. J. Sparks and S. F. Jenkins 24. Scientific communication of uncertainty during volcanic emergencies J. Marti 25. Volcano Disaster Assistance Program: preventing volcanic crises from becoming disasters and advancing science diplomacy J. Pallister 26. Communities coping with uncertainty and reducing their risk: the collaborative monitoring and management of volcanic activity with the Vigias of Tungurahua J. Stone, J. Barclay, P. Ramon, P. Mothes and STREVA.

Background Globally, more than 800 million people live in areas that have the potential to be affected by volcanic hazards, and this number is growing [Chapter 4]. The need for informed judgements regarding the global extent of potential volcanic hazards and the relative threats is therefore more pressing than ever. There is also an imperative to identify areas of relatively high hazard where studies and risk reduction measures may be best focussed. Various authors have tackled this task at a range of spatial scales, using a variety of techniques. At some well-studied volcanoes, the geological record has been used in combination with numerical modelling to create probabilistic hazard maps of volcanic flows and tephra fall [Chapter 6 and 20]. Such sources of information can be hugely beneficial in land use planning during times of quiescence and in emergency planning during times of unrest. Unfortunately, creating high-resolution probabilistic hazard maps for all volcanoes is not yet feasible. There is therefore a need for a methodology for volcanic hazard assessment that can be applied universally and consistently, which is less data-and computing-intensive. The aim of such an approach is to identify, on some objective overall basis, those volcanoes that pose the greatest danger, in order that more indepth investigations and disaster risk reduction efforts can then be focused on them. Previous methods An index-based approach to volcanic hazard assessment involves assigning scores to a series of indicators, which are then combined to give an overall hazard score. Indicators typically include measures of the frequency of eruptions, the relative occurrence of different kinds of eruptions and their related hazards, the footprints of these hazards, and eruption size. Indices are well suited to the problem of volcanic hazard assessment, as they allow the decomposition of the complex system into a suite of volcanic system controls and simple quantitative variables and factors that jointly characterise threat potential. Ewert (2007) presented an index-based methodology for assessing volcanic threat (the combination of hazard and exposure) in the USA, to permit prioritisation of research, monitoring and mitigation.

Potentially destructive phenomena such as volcanic eruptions occur independently of any human action. Volcanic disasters may occur when a social group fails to respond to a threatening situation resulting from volcanic activity. Society should thus react to a potential threat and reduce the future impacts of a disaster. Volcanic crisis management is a framework whereby scientists, emergency managers (civil protection), and communities work together to develop and implement a set of preparedness and response measures aimed toward the mitigation of the effects of an eruption. In this chapter, we outline some general principles for volcanic crisis management.

The communication of scientific information to stakeholders is a critical component of an effective Volcano Early Warning System. Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems are used in many countries as a tool within early warning systems to communicate complex volcanic information in a simple form, from which response decisions can be made. Such communication tools need to meet the requirements of a wide range of end-users, including emergency managers, the aviation industry, media, and the public. They also need to be usable by scientists who determine the alert levels based on integration and interpretation of volcano observations and monitoring data. This paper presents an exploratory review of New Zealand’s 20-year old VAL system, and for the first time globally, describes the development of a VAL system based on a robust qualitative ethnographic methodology. This involved semi-structured interviews of scientists and VAL end-users, document analysis, and observations of scientists over three years as they set the VAL during multiple unrest and eruption crises. The transdisciplinary nature of this research allows the system to be revised with direct input by end-users of the system, highlighting the benefits of using social science methodologies in developing or revising warning systems. The methodology utilised in this research is applicable worldwide, and could be used to develop warning systems for other hazards. It was identified that there are multiple possibilities for foundations of VAL systems, including phenomena, hazard, risk, and magmatic processes. The revised VAL system is based on the findings of this research, and was implemented in collaboration with New Zealand’s Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management in July 2014. It is used for all of New Zealand’s active volcanoes, and is understandable, intuitive, and informative. The complete process of exploring a current VAL system, revising it, and introducing it to New Zealand society is described.

In this study we present modeling results derived from ground deformation observed in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by the C-band Envisat Synthetic Aperture Radar. Auckland, the largest city in New Zealand with a current population of over one million, coincides with the AVF, which comprises about 50 individual, largely monogenetic, basaltic volcanoes distributed across a total area of 360 km2. The most recent and largest eruption there occurred 600 years ago. While it is anticipated that the chance of any existing volcano reawakening is very low, a new volcano could be created at any time in a new location within the field. The aim of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) for mapping ground deformation associated with magma ascent, which would be a likely precursor to the onset of volcanic activity. For this study we acquired and processed 23 single look complex (SLC) images from the Envisat satellite (Track 151, Frame 6442, IS2, VV) spanning from July 2003 until November 2007. All possible combinations of differential interferograms were created. Stacking, Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and Permanent Scatterers (PS) processing algorithms were used to determine spatial and temporal patterns of surface deformation as well as their average rates. A number of localized deformation regions were consistently observed by all three techniques. Due to a lack of evidence pointing toward a relationship with volcanic or tectonic sources it was assumed that they are produced by groundwater withdrawal and recharge. Three largest regions of subsidence (S1–S3) and also three largest regions of uplift (U1–U3) were modeled with the derivative-free simplex algorithms for location, depth and source volume change using a Mogi point source approximation. The results show that InSAR is a viable technique capable of detecting the scale, rate and spatial distribution of precursory deformation that would likely be associated with resumption of volcanic activity in the Auckland urban area.

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand's largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand's nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models. © 2009 Springer-Verlag.

There are many examples around the world where satellite based remote sensing has been used to successfully monitor different stages of volcanic activity. This paper describes some of the methods used and their results for monitoring two active volcanoes in New Zealand — Mt Ruapehu and Raoul Island. A time series of ASTER night-time thermal images has been successfully used to assess crater lake temperature variability; Hyperion hyperspectral imagery was tested for crater lake color monitoring with inconclusive results; and interferograms using ALOS PALSAR data were generated of Mt Ruapehu for the purpose of mapping deformation patterns. These data provide information for baseline monitoring, as no major volcanic activity was evidenced over the duration of the study.

Mt Ruapehu is New Zealand?s most active volcano. In 2007, the volcano produced a large lahar following a crater lake dam wall breach, in addition to a minor eruption and small associated lahars. Here, satellite remote sensing and image processing is used to extract the path of the major lahar, and to compare the results achieved through classification of ASTER visible and near infra-red imagery to those derived from ALOS-PALSAR L-band synthetic aperture RADAR data. This study also details how remote sensing can be used to derive temperature values useful for monitoring volcanic activity. Eleven ASTER thermal images were acquired to extract the temperature of the crater lake and a linear correlation coefficient (r2) of 0.94 was achieved when compared to field survey. The results herein demonstrate the utility of satellite remote sensing for mapping and monitoring volcanic activity in New Zealand.

Uncertainties in modelling volcanic hazards are often amplified in geographically large systems which have a diverse eruption history that comprises variable eruption styles from many different vent locations. The ~700 km2 Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is a caldera complex in New Zealand which has displayed a range of eruption styles and compositions over its current phase of activity (26 ka–present), including one basaltic maar-forming eruption, one basaltic Plinian eruption and nine rhyolitic Plinian eruptions. All three of these eruption styles occurred within the past 3.5 ky, and any of these styles could occur in the event of a future eruption. The location of a future eruption is also unknown. Future vents could potentially open in one of three different areas which have been activated in the past 26 ky at the OVC: the Tarawera linear vent zone (LVZ) (five eruptions), the Haroharo LVZ (five eruptions) or outside of these LVZs (one eruption). A future rhyolitic or basaltic Plinian eruption from the OVC is likely to generate widespread tephra fall in loads that will cause significant disruption and have severe socio-economic impacts. Past OVC tephra hazard studies have focused on evaluating hazard from a rhyolitic Plinian eruption at select vent locations in the OVC’s Tarawera LVZ. Here, we expand upon past studies by evaluating tephra hazard for all possible OVC eruption vent areas and for both rhyolitic and basaltic Plinian eruption styles, and explore how these parameters influence tephra hazard forecasts. Probabilistic volcanic hazard model BET_VH and advection–diffusion model TEPHRA2 were used to assess the hazard of accumulating ≥10 kg m−2 of tephra from both basaltic Plinian and rhyolitic Plinian eruption styles, occurring from within the Tarawera LVZ, the Haroharo LVZ or other potential vent areas within the caldera. Our results highlight the importance of considering all the potential vent locations of a volcanic system, in order to capture the full eruption catalogue in analyses (e.g. 11 eruptions over 26 ky for the OVC versus only five eruptions over 26 ky for the Tarawera LVZ), as well as the full spatial distribution of tephra hazard. Although the Tarawera LVZ has been prominently discussed in studies of OVC hazard because of its recent activity (1886 and ~1315 ad), we find that in the event of a future eruption, the estimated likelihood of a vent opening within the Haroharo LVZ (last eruption 5.6 ka) is equivalent (