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Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583).

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: Large-scale studies risk generating inaccurate and missing data due to the complexity of data collection. Technology has the potential to improve data quality by providing operational support to data collectors. However, this potential is under-explored in community-based trials. The Aspirin in reducing events in the elderly (ASPREE) trial developed a data suite that was specifically designed to support data collectors: the ASPREE Web Accessible Relational Database (AWARD). This paper describes AWARD and the impact of system design on data quality. Methods: AWARD's operational requirements, conceptual design, key challenges and design solutions for data quality are presented. Impact of design features is assessed through comparison of baseline data collected prior to implementation of key functionality (n = 1000) with data collected post implementation (n = 18,114). Overall data quality is assessed according to data category. Results: At baseline, implementation of user-driven functionality reduced staff error (from 0.3% to 0.01%), out-of-range data entry (from 0.14% to 0.04%) and protocol deviations (from 0.4% to 0.08%). In the longitudinal data set, which contained more than 39 million data values collected within AWARD, 96.6% of data values were entered within specified query range or found to be accurate upon querying. The remaining data were missing (3.4%). Participant non-attendance at scheduled study activity was the most common cause of missing data. Costs associated with cleaning data in ASPREE were lower than expected compared with reports from other trials. Conclusions: Clinical trials undertake complex operational activity in order to collect data, but technology rarely provides sufficient support. We find the AWARD suite provides proof of principle that designing technology to support data collectors can mitigate known causes of poor data quality and produce higher-quality data. Health information technology (IT) produc

Rationale: Aspirin has positive and negative effects on a number of age-related chronic conditions and there is uncertainty regarding its role in primary prevention in people aged 70 years and over. Aims: To assess whether daily active treatment of 100 mg enteric-coated aspirin will extend the duration of disability-free life in healthy older participants. Design: A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled primary prevention trial undertaken in Australia and the United States with careful adjudication of endpoints including stroke. Study outcome: In Australia 16,703 individuals were recruited through general practices across five states and territories, and in the United States, 2411 participants were recruited through 34 clinical sites across the country. Follow-up of participants will finish at the end of 2017 with average follow-up exceeding 4.25 years per person. Discussion: The statistical analysis plan for ASPREE, finalized after closure of recruitment but before the end of patient follow-up, outlines the primary analyses and a range of subgroup and sensitivity analyses. (International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register ISRCTN83772183 and clinicaltrials.gov Number NCT01038583).

Cost-effective strategies to maintain healthy active lifestyle in aging populations are required to address the global burden of age-related diseases. ASPREE will examine whether the potential primary prevention benefits of low dose aspirin outweigh the risks in older healthy individuals. Our primary hypothesis is that daily oral 100. mg enteric-coated aspirin will extend a composite primary endpoint termed 'disability-free life' including onset of dementia, total mortality, or persistent disability in at least one of the Katz Activities of Daily Living in 19,000 healthy participants aged 65. years and above ('US minorities') and 70. years and above (non-'US minorities'). ASPREE is a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of oral 100. mg enteric-coated acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) or matching placebo being conducted in Australian and US community settings on individuals free of dementia, disability and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Secondary endpoints are all-cause and cause specific mortality, fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, fatal and non-fatal cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer), dementia, mild cognitive impairment, depression, physical disability, and clinically significant bleeding. To 20 September 2013 14,383 participants have been recruited. Recruitment and study completion are anticipated in July 2014 and December 2018 respectively. In contrast to other aspirin trials that have largely focused on cardiovascular endpoints, ASPREE has a unique composite primary endpoint to better capture the overall risk and benefit of aspirin to extend healthy independent lifespan in older adults in the US and Australia. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.