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1. The PHEM-B toolbox of methods for incorporating the influences on Behaviour into Public Health Economic Models

Author

Squires, Hazel, Kelly, Michael P., Gilbert, Nigel, Sniehotta, Falko, Purshouse, Robin C., Garcia, Leandro, Breeze, Penny, Brennan, Alan, Gardner, Benjamin, Bright, Sophie, Fischer, Alastair, Heppenstall, Alison, Wetton, Joanna Davan, Hernandez-Alava, Monica, Boyd, Jennifer, Buckley, Charlotte, Vlaev, Ivo, Smith, Robert, Abbas, Ali, Gibb, Roger, Henney, Madeleine, Moore, Esther, and Chater, Angel M.

Published
2024
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3. Gamification and Simulation for Innovation

Author

Ahrweiler, Petra, Gilbert, Nigel, Bicket, Martha, Coll, Albert Sabater, Capellas, Blanca Luque, Wurster, David, Siqueiros, Jesús M., Späth, Elisabeth, Elsenbroich, Corinna, editor, and Verhagen, Harko, editor

Published
2024
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5. Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies

Author

Thompson, Robin N, Hollingsworth, T Deirdre, Isham, Valerie, Arribas-Bel, Daniel, Ashby, Ben, Britton, Tom, Challoner, Peter, Chappell, Lauren H K, Clapham, Hannah, Cunniffe, Nik J, Dawid, A Philip, Donnelly, Christl A, Eggo, Rosalind, Funk, Sebastian, Gilbert, Nigel, Gog, Julia R, Glendinning, Paul, Hart, William S, Heesterbeek, Hans, House, Thomas, Keeling, Matt, Kiss, Istvan Z, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Lloyd, Alun L, McBryde, Emma S, McCaw, James M, Miller, Joel C, McKinley, Trevelyan J, Morris, Martina, ONeill, Philip D, Pearson, Carl A B, Parag, Kris V, Pellis, Lorenzo, Pulliam, Juliet R C, Ross, Joshua V, Tildesley, Michael J, Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia, Silverman, Bernard W, Struchiner, Claudio J, Trapman, Pieter, Webb, Cerian R, Mollison, Denis, and Restif, Olivier

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Other Quantitative Biology, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Abstract

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

Published
2020
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6. MakeSense: An IoT Testbed for Social Research of Indoor Activities

Author

Jiang, Jie, Pozza, Riccardo, Gilbert, Nigel, and Moessner, Klaus

Subjects
Computer Science - Human-Computer Interaction
Abstract

There has been increasing interest in deploying IoT devices to study human behaviour in locations such as homes and offices. Such devices can be deployed in a laboratory or `in the wild' in natural environments. The latter allows one to collect behavioural data that is not contaminated by the artificiality of a laboratory experiment. Using IoT devices in ordinary environments also brings the benefits of reduced cost, as compared with lab experiments, and less disturbance to the participants' daily routines which in turn helps with recruiting them into the research. However, in this case, it is essential to have an IoT infrastructure that can be easily and swiftly installed and from which real-time data can be securely and straightforwardly collected. In this paper, we present MakeSense, an IoT testbed that enables real-world experimentation for large scale social research on indoor activities through real-time monitoring and/or situation-aware applications. The testbed features quick setup, flexibility in deployment, the integration of a range of IoT devices, resilience, and scalability. We also present two case studies to demonstrate the use of the testbed, one in homes and one in offices., Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures

Published
2019

7. Deep Learning Based Energy Disaggregation and On/Off Detection of Household Appliances

Author

Jiang, Jie, Kong, Qiuqiang, Plumbley, Mark, and Gilbert, Nigel

Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Multimedia, Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing
Abstract

Energy disaggregation, a.k.a. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring, aims to separate the energy consumption of individual appliances from the readings of a mains power meter measuring the total energy consumption of, e.g. a whole house. Energy consumption of individual appliances can be useful in many applications, e.g., providing appliance-level feedback to the end users to help them understand their energy consumption and ultimately save energy. Recently, with the availability of large-scale energy consumption datasets, various neural network models such as convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been investigated to solve the energy disaggregation problem. Neural network models can learn complex patterns from large amounts of data and have been shown to outperform the traditional machine learning methods such as variants of hidden Markov models. However, current neural network methods for energy disaggregation are either computational expensive or are not capable of handling long-term dependencies. In this paper, we investigate the application of the recently developed WaveNet models for the task of energy disaggregation. Based on a real-world energy dataset collected from 20 households over two years, we show that WaveNet models outperforms the state-of-the-art deep learning methods proposed in the literature for energy disaggregation in terms of both error measures and computational cost. On the basis of energy disaggregation, we then investigate the performance of two deep-learning based frameworks for the task of on/off detection which aims at estimating whether an appliance is in operation or not. Based on the same dataset, we show that for the task of on/off detection the second framework, i.e., directly training a binary classifier, achieves better performance in terms of F1 score., Comment: 19 pages

Published
2019

9. Incorporating the Public Perspective into the Future Design of Smart Home Living’

Author

Seymour, Valentine, Xenitidou, Maria, Timotijevic, Lada, Hodgkins, Charo, Ratcliffe, Eleanor, Gatersleben, Birgitta, Gilbert, Nigel, Jones, Chris R., Filipe, Joaquim, Editorial Board Member, Ghosh, Ashish, Editorial Board Member, Prates, Raquel Oliveira, Editorial Board Member, Zhou, Lizhu, Editorial Board Member, Stephanidis, Constantine, editor, Antona, Margherita, editor, and Ntoa, Stavroula, editor

Published
2022
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12. Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Author

Thompson, Robin N., Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Isham, Valerie, Arribas-Bel, Daniel, Ashby, Ben, Britton, Tom, Challenor, Peter, Chappell, Lauren H. K., Clapham, Hannah, Cunniffe, Nik J., Dawid, A. Philip, Donnelly, Christl A., Eggo, Rosalind M., Funk, Sebastian, Gilbert, Nigel, Glendinning, Paul, Gog, Julia R., Hart, William S., Heesterbeek, Hans, House, Thomas, Keeling, Matt, Kiss, István Z., Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Lloyd, Alun L., McBryde, Emma S., McCaw, James M., McKinley, Trevelyan J., Miller, Joel C., Morris, Martina, O’Neill, Philip D., Parag, Kris V., Pearson, Carl A. B., Pellis, Lorenzo, Pulliam, Juliet R. C., Ross, Joshua V., Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia, Silverman, Bernard W., Struchiner, Claudio J., Tildesley, Michael J., Trapman, Pieter, Webb, Cerian R., Mollison, Denis, and Restif, Olivier

Published
2020

27. A Behavioural Agent-Based Model for Housing Markets: Impact of Financial Shocks in the UK.

Author

Gamal, Yahya, Elsenbroich, Corinna, Gilbert, Nigel, Heppenstall, Alison, and Zia, Kashif

Subjects
INTEREST rates, HOUSING market, HOME prices, LOAN-to-value ratio, MORTGAGE rates
Abstract

The housing market in the UK features a mortgaging system where interest rates are either fixed for short periods (typically 2 or 5 years) or varied to track interest rates of the Bank of England base rate. The reactions of home buyers and investors to changes in the mortgage rate have impacts on the buy-to-let housing market, and this in turn impacts tenants who are renting from private landlords. Such reactions become more significant when there are financial shocks, as occurred in 2022, which create chain events that can affect house prices and rents. To explore the dynamics of the UK housing market, we introduce an Agent Based Model (ABM) featuring interactions between the mortgage, buy-to-let and rental housing markets. We use the model to understand the effects of interest rate and maximum loan-to-value shocks. The ABM demonstrates the complex associations between such shocks, house prices and rents. It shows that a sudden increase in mortgage interest rates decreases housing prices and steeply increases rent prices within 5 years. It also shows that a sudden decrease of the loan-to-value ratio significantly decreases housing prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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30. Conclusion

Author

Elsenbroich, Corinna, Anzola, David, Gilbert, Nigel, Bertino, Elisa, Series editor, Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio, Series editor, Foster, Jacob, Series editor, Gilbert, Nigel, Series editor, Golbeck, Jennifer, Series editor, Gonçalves, Bruno, Series editor, Kitts, James A., Series editor, Liebovitch, Larry, Series editor, Matei, Sorin A., Series editor, Nijholt, Anton, Series editor, Nowak, Andrzej, Series editor, Savit, Robert, Series editor, Squazzoni, Flaminio, Series editor, Vinciarelli, Alessandro, Series editor, Elsenbroich, Corinna, editor, and Anzola, David, editor

Published
2016
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31. Introduction

Author

Elsenbroich, Corinna, Anzola, David, Gilbert, Nigel, Bertino, Elisa, Series editor, Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio, Series editor, Foster, Jacob, Series editor, Gilbert, Nigel, Series editor, Golbeck, Jennifer, Series editor, Gonçalves, Bruno, Series editor, Kitts, James A., Series editor, Liebovitch, Larry, Series editor, Matei, Sorin A., Series editor, Nijholt, Anton, Series editor, Nowak, Andrzej, Series editor, Savit, Robert, Series editor, Squazzoni, Flaminio, Series editor, Vinciarelli, Alessandro, Series editor, Elsenbroich, Corinna, editor, and Anzola, David, editor

Published
2016
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32. Sociology and Non-Equilibrium Social Science

Author

Anzola, David, Barbrook-Johnson, Peter, Salgado, Mauricio, Gilbert, Nigel, Abarbanel, Henry D.I., Series editor, Braha, Dan, Series editor, Érdi, Péter, Series editor, Friston, Karl J, Series editor, Haken, Hermann, Series editor, Jirsa, Viktor, Series editor, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Kaneko, Kunihiko, Series editor, Kelso, Scott, Series editor, Kirkilionis, Markus, Series editor, Kurths, Jürgen, Series editor, Menezes, Ronaldo, Series editor, Nowak, Andrzej, Series editor, Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, Series editor, Reichl, Linda, Series editor, Schuster, Peter, Series editor, Schweitzer, Frank, Series editor, Sornette, Didier, Series editor, Thurner, Stefan, Series editor, Johnson, Jeffrey, editor, Ormerod, Paul, editor, Rosewell, Bridget, editor, and Zhang, Yi-Cheng, editor

Published
2017
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33. Using ABM to Clarify and Refine Social Practice Theory

Author

Narasimhan, Kavin, Roberts, Thomas, Xenitidou, Maria, Gilbert, Nigel, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Pal, Nikhil R., Advisory editor, Bello Perez, Rafael, Advisory editor, Corchado, Emilio S., Advisory editor, Hagras, Hani, Advisory editor, Kóczy, László T., Advisory editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, Advisory editor, Lin, Chin-Teng, Advisory editor, Lu, Jie, Advisory editor, Melin, Patricia, Advisory editor, Nedjah, Nadia, Advisory editor, Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh, Advisory editor, Wang, Jun, Advisory editor, Jager, Wander, editor, Verbrugge, Rineke, editor, Flache, Andreas, editor, de Roo, Gert, editor, Hoogduin, Lex, editor, and Hemelrijk, Charlotte, editor

Published
2017
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34. Gossip, Sexual Recombination and the El Farol Bar: modelling the emergence of heterogeneity

Author

Edmonds, Bruce and Gilbert, Nigel

Subjects
Computer Science: Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science: Complexity Theory, Computer Science: Machine Learning, Psychology: Social Psychology, Artificial Intelligence, Complexity Theory, Machine Learning, Social Psychology
Abstract

Brian Arthur's `El Farol Bar' model is extended so that the agents also learn and communicate. The learning and communication is implemented using an evolutionary process acting upon a population of mental models inside each agent. The evolutionary process is based on a Genetic Programming algorithm. Each gene is composed of two tree-structures: one to control its action and one to determine its communication. A detailed case-study from the simulations show how the agents have differentiated so that by the end of the run they had taken on very different roles. Thus the introduction of a flexible learning process and an expressive internal representation has allowed the emergence of heterogeneity.

Published
1999

35. Mechanisms of metagovernance as structural challenges to levelling up in England.

Author

Newman, Jack, Collinson, Simon, Driffield, Nigel, Gilbert, Nigel, and Hoole, Charlotte

Subjects
POLITICAL opportunity theory, ECONOMIC development, HIERARCHY (Linguistics), ECONOMIC policy
Abstract

At the time of writing, the UK government is attempting to tackle place-based inequality through its 'levelling up' agenda. To be effective, such interventions require local institutions with the capacity, powers, and budgets to develop and implement long-term strategies. Multi-level metagovernance, the ongoing reorganisation of local governance systems by the central state, has become a salient political process in England, characterised by fragmented system design, distorted local strategies, micromanagement and mistrustful central–local relations. These various problems are underpinned by a problematic combination of quasi-markets and state hierarchy. Together, these metagovernance mechanisms significantly constrain local capacity to deliver economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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36. Testing Policy Options for Horizon 2020 with SKIN

Author

Ahrweiler, Petra, Schilperoord, Michel, Pyka, Andreas, Gilbert, Nigel, Abarbanel, Henry, Series editor, Braha, Dan, Series editor, Érdi, Péter, Series editor, Friston, Karl, Series editor, Haken, Hermann, Series editor, Jirsa, Viktor, Series editor, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Kaneko, Kunihiko, Series editor, Kelso, Scott, Series editor, Kirkilionis, Markus, Series editor, Kurths, Jürgen, Series editor, Nowak, Andrzej, Series editor, Reichl, Linda, Series editor, Schuster, Peter, Series editor, Schweitzer, Frank, Series editor, Sornette, Didier, Series editor, Thurner, Stefan, Series editor, Gilbert, Nigel, editor, Ahrweiler, Petra, editor, and Pyka, Andreas, editor

Published
2014
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37. Simulating Knowledge Dynamics in Innovation Networks: An Introduction

Author

Ahrweiler, Petra, Pyka, Andreas, Gilbert, Nigel, Abarbanel, Henry, Series editor, Braha, Dan, Series editor, Érdi, Péter, Series editor, Friston, Karl, Series editor, Haken, Hermann, Series editor, Jirsa, Viktor, Series editor, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Kaneko, Kunihiko, Series editor, Kelso, Scott, Series editor, Kirkilionis, Markus, Series editor, Kurths, Jürgen, Series editor, Nowak, Andrzej, Series editor, Reichl, Linda, Series editor, Schuster, Peter, Series editor, Schweitzer, Frank, Series editor, Sornette, Didier, Series editor, Thurner, Stefan, Series editor, Gilbert, Nigel, editor, Ahrweiler, Petra, editor, and Pyka, Andreas, editor

Published
2014
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38. Morality

Author

Elsenbroich, Corinna, Gilbert, Nigel, Elsenbroich, Corinna, and Gilbert, Nigel

Published
2014
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46. Introduction

Author

Elsenbroich, Corinna, Gilbert, Nigel, Elsenbroich, Corinna, and Gilbert, Nigel

Published
2014
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