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Abstract Osteoporosis is a serious health concern in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Machine learning (ML) models have been increasingly incorporated into various clinical practices, including disease classification, risk prediction, and treatment response. However, only a few studies have focused on predicting osteoporosis using ML in patients with RA. We aimed to develop an ML model to predict osteoporosis using a representative Korean RA cohort database. The KORean Observational study Network for Arthritis (KORONA) database, established by the Clinical Research Center for RA in Korea, was used in this study. Among the 5077 patients registered in KORONA, 2374 patients were included in this study. Four representative ML algorithms were used for the prediction: logistic regression (LR), random forest, XGBoost (XGB), and LightGBM. The accuracy, F1 score, and area under the curve (AUC) of each model were measured. The LR model achieved the highest AUC value at 0.750, while the XGB model achieved the highest accuracy at 0.682. Body mass index, age, menopause, waist and hip circumferences, RA surgery, and monthly income were risk factors of osteoporosis. In conclusion, ML algorithms are a useful option for screening for osteoporosis in patients with RA.

Background and aimsIt is difficult to document atrial fibrillation (AF) on ECG in patients with non-persistent atrial fibrillation (non-PeAF). There is limited understanding of whether an AI prediction algorithm could predict the occurrence of non-PeAF from the information of normal sinus rhythm (SR) of a 12-lead ECG. This study aimed to derive a precise predictive AI model for screening non-PeAF using SR ECG within 4 weeks.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included patients aged 18 to 99 with SR ECG on 12-lead standard ECG (10 seconds) in Ewha Womans University Medical Center for 3 years. Data were preprocessed into three window periods (which are defined with the duration from SR to non-PeAF detection) – 1 week, 2 weeks, and 4 weeks from the AF detection prospectively. For experiments, we adopted a Residual Neural Network model based on 1D-CNN proposed in a previous study. We used 7,595 SR ECGs (extracted from 215,875 ECGs) with window periods of 1 week, 2 weeks, and 4 weeks for analysis.ResultsThe prediction algorithm showed an AUC of 0.862 and an F1-score of 0.84 in the 1:4 matched group of a 1-week window period. For the 1:4 matched group of a 2-week window period, it showed an AUC of 0.864 and an F1-score of 0.85. Finally, for the 1:4 matched group of a 4-week window period, it showed an AUC of 0.842 and an F1-score of 0.83.ConclusionThe AI prediction algorithm showed the possibility of risk stratification for early detection of non-PeAF. Moreover, this study showed that a short window period is also sufficient to detect non-PeAF.

Background and ObjectiveIdentifying biomarkers for predicting progression to dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial. To this end, the comprehensive visual rating scale (CVRS), which is based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), was developed for the assessment of structural changes in the brains of patients with MCI. This study aimed to investigate the use of the CVRS score for predicting dementia in patients with MCI over a 2-year follow-up period using various machine learning (ML) algorithms.MethodsWe included 197 patients with MCI who were followed up more than once. The data used for this study were obtained from the Japanese-Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study. We assessed all the patients using their CVRS scores, cortical thickness data, and clinical data to determine their progression to dementia during a follow-up period of over 2 years. ML algorithms, such as logistic regression, random forest (RF), XGBoost, and LightGBM, were applied to the combination of the dataset. Further, feature importance that contributed to the progression from MCI to dementia was analyzed to confirm the risk predictors among the various variables evaluated.ResultsOf the 197 patients, 108 (54.8%) showed progression from MCI to dementia. Tree-based classifiers, such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and RF, achieved relatively high performance. In addition, the prediction models showed better performance when clinical data and CVRS score (accuracy 0.701–0.711) were used than when clinical data and cortical thickness (accuracy 0.650–0.685) were used. The features related to CVRS helped predict progression to dementia using the tree-based models compared to logistic regression.ConclusionsTree-based ML algorithms can predict progression from MCI to dementia using baseline CVRS scores combined with clinical data.

Machine learning (ML) and large-scale big data are key factors in developing an accurate prediction model for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although the CVD risk often depends on the race and ethnicity, most previous studies considered only US or European populations for the CVD risk prediction. In this work, to complement previous researches, we analyzed the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Health Sample Cohort (KNHSC) data and studied the characteristics of ML and big data for predicting the CVD risk. More specifically, we assessed the effectiveness of various ML methods in predicting the 2-year and 10-year risk of CVD such as atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and strokes. To develop prediction models, we considered the usual medical examination data, questionnaire survey results, comorbidities, and past medication information available in the KNHSC data. We developed various ML-based prediction models using logistic regression, deep neural networks, random forests, and LightGBM, and validated them using various metrics such as receiver operating characteristic curves, precision-recall curves, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score. Experimental results showed that all ML models outperformed the baseline method derived from the ACC/AHA guidelines for estimating the 10-year CVD risk, demonstrating the usefulness of ML methods. In addition, in our analysis, whether we included the past medication information as a feature or not, the prediction accuracy of all ML models was comparable to each other. Since the use of medications by the physicians provided important information on the occurrence of diseases, when we included it as a feature, all prediction models achieved a slightly higher prediction accuracy.